Strategy Overview - The core strategy indicates that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman suggests a hawkish policy stance, advocating for balance sheet reduction and cautious interest rate cuts, which may reverse market expectations for continued liquidity easing and strengthen the dollar, leading to a global tightening of dollar liquidity expectations and asset price reassessment [4][2] - In the short term, after a strong spring rally, the market may enter a rhythm adjustment period due to proactive policy guidance and increased overseas disturbances, presenting rotation opportunities for previously stagnant sectors [4][2] Real Estate Sector: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions, with a settlement area of 814,000 square meters, up 20.8% year-on-year, and a settlement amount of 17.37 billion yuan, up 52.5% year-on-year [8] - Despite revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3%, primarily due to a negative investment income of 950 million yuan and an increase in minority shareholder losses [8] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 1.3%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company’s debt structure improved, with interest-bearing debt down 8.6% year-on-year to 68.2 billion yuan, and the average financing cost decreased by 48 basis points to 2.90% [9] - The company’s sales ranking improved to 15th in the industry, with a sales amount of 29.5 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, despite a 13.5% year-on-year decline [10] Transportation Sector: CITIC Offshore Helicopter - CITIC Offshore Helicopter is a leading player in China's general aviation sector, operating the largest civil helicopter fleet in Asia with 84 advanced model helicopters [13] - The company has a strong revenue stream from offshore oil services, with nearly 70% of its revenue derived from this segment, and maintains a market share of over 60% in the offshore helicopter service market [14] - The general aviation market in China is expected to grow steadily, supported by policy guidance, with the number of general airports reaching 475 and the number of general aviation enterprises reaching 760 by 2024 [14] Transportation Sector: Air China - Air China is the only flag carrier in China, with passenger transport services accounting for nearly 91% of total revenue in 2024 [16] - The company reported a revenue of 166.7 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.14% year-on-year, with a sales gross margin of 5.11% [16] - The domestic passenger transport volume reached 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [17] Chemical Sector: Zhejiang Longsheng - The company reported a 6.47% year-on-year decline in revenue to 6.505 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 29.80%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [19][20] - The dye business saw a slight revenue decline of 3.17% to 3.632 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 4.40 percentage points to 34.17% [19] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to maintain stable development amid industry challenges [19] Chemical Sector: Yake Technology - The company achieved a revenue growth of 15.37% in the electronic materials segment, with a total revenue of 2.573 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [24] - The company is actively developing new technologies and products in the LNG and electronic materials sectors, with a focus on semiconductor chemical materials [23] New Energy Sector: Foster - Foster is a leading player in the photovoltaic encapsulation materials market, maintaining a market share of around 50% [27] - The company is exploring new solutions for space environment applications, leveraging its existing technology in photovoltaic materials [28] Medical Sector: Mindray Medical - The company faced revenue pressure in the first half of 2025, with a 23.77% year-on-year decline in Q2 revenue to 8.506 billion yuan [29] - International business revenue increased by 5.39%, accounting for about 50% of total revenue, indicating a growing presence in the global market [30] - The company is focusing on building a digital healthcare ecosystem through the integration of devices, IT, and AI technologies [31] Food and Beverage Sector: Kweichow Moutai - The company is navigating a challenging environment in the liquor industry, focusing on quality and long-term value rather than short-term performance metrics [33] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39.06 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 91.3% [34] Social Services Sector: Lingnan Holdings - The company achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 8.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 24.39% [36] - The company is expanding its travel agency and hotel management services, with a focus on enhancing its operational capabilities [38] Electronics Sector: Zhaoyi Innovation - The company expects a revenue of approximately 9.203 billion yuan in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, driven by demand from AI computing and the storage industry [39]

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates an increase in volatility in international capital markets, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > currencies [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% this week, while the ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, emphasizing the importance of the implementation of "incremental" policies [2][3] - A cautious stance is recommended for bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, leading to an underweight allocation [2][3] - The report maintains a neutral position on commodities, highlighting the need to monitor fiscal spending in 2026 [2][3] Economic Data Insights - Industrial profits for December showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, reversing a previous decline [4][18] - The fiscal revenue for 2025 was reported at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% [4][18] Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading gains while the ChiNext Index saw a decline of 3.78% [36] - In the commodities market, coal futures rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% [1][11] Policy Developments - The report highlights the publication of a significant article by President Xi Jinping on the importance of building a strong financial nation, emphasizing the need for a robust economic foundation and effective financial institutions [4][19] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, outlining 12 policy measures targeting key sectors [4][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US interest rate cut cycle is not over. After the current risk factors are released, the US Treasury market may return to the downward trend of yields [2][4][15] - China's bond market also needs to pay attention to the performance of technology stocks. Whether the performance growth of technology stocks can support their valuations will have an important impact on the bond market through factors such as stock - bond linkage and the flow of household savings [4][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Some important risk factors in the US Treasury market in the first quarter are gradually becoming clear. The next Fed chair nominee, tariff case alternatives, the Cook case, geopolitical factors, and technology stock performance are the main observation points [4][12][13] - The performance of technology stocks in the US may continue to drive economic growth, but has limited impact on overall employment, which in turn affects inflation through the salary channel [4][15] - In the week of January 30th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.89% week - on - week, the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and the edible agricultural products price index increased by 0.90% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the domestic cement price index decreased by 1.03% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 0.09% week - on - week on average, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 0.26% week - on - week, the rebar inventory index increased by 7.73% week - on - week, the rebar price index decreased by 0.18% week - on - week, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills increased by 0.46% week - on - week. The producer price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased by 5.84% and 5.38% week - on - week respectively. The average price of LME copper spot increased by 2.90% week - on - week, the average price of aluminum spot increased by 2.32% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 4.21% week - on - week [4][19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document shows multiple charts comparing high - frequency data with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the year - on - year change of the RJ/CRB price index and the year - on - year change of export volume, the year - on - year change of the producer price index and the year - on - year change of PPI for industrial products [25][27][30] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe and Japan - The document shows charts of the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, the same - store sales growth rate and PCE year - on - year in the US, and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the central banks of Japan and the Eurozone in the derivatives market [90][94][96] Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document shows the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increase) of various high - frequency data, including the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, steel price index of rebar, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills [102][106][110] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen - The document shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen [146][148]

Revenue and Income Trends - In December 2025, total public finance revenue was CNY 15,529.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0%, with the decline expanding by 24.9 percentage points compared to November[4] - Tax revenue for December was CNY 11,549.0 billion, down 11.5% year-on-year, marking a negative growth shift of 14.3 percentage points[4] - Non-tax revenue fell to CNY 3,980.0 billion, a significant decline of 47.9%, with the drop widening by 37.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] Expenditure Insights - Public finance expenditure in December was CNY 38,857.0 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points from November[4] - Local public finance expenditure was CNY 34,055.0 billion, decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.9 percentage points compared to November[4] - The share of expenditure on social security and employment fell to 9.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%[2] Sector-Specific Expenditure - Expenditure on health, energy conservation, and cultural tourism increased by 12.1%, 3.1%, and 5.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Infrastructure spending accounted for 25.0% of the public finance budget in December, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued focus on "stabilizing growth"[2] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Central government fund revenue in December was CNY 1,118.0 billion, up 36.5% year-on-year, while local government fund revenue was CNY 16,312.0 billion, down 13.8%[5] - The revenue from state land use rights fell to CNY 12,399.0 billion, a decrease of 22.9% year-on-year, contributing to the decline in local government fund revenue[5] Overall Fiscal Performance - For the entire year of 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 216,045.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[7] - General public budget expenditure for the year was CNY 287,395.0 billion, showing a modest increase of 1.0% year-on-year[12] - The central budget expenditure for the year increased by 19.0%, indicating a significant contribution to overall fiscal performance[22]

Manufacturing Sector - January Manufacturing PMI index decreased to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[1] - New orders index fell to 49.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, while new export orders index dropped to 47.8%, down 1.2 percentage points[1] - Production index stood at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points; raw material inventory index at 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; finished goods inventory index increased to 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points[1] - Employment index decreased to 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points; supplier delivery time index slightly declined to 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points[1] Price and Demand Indicators - Major raw material purchase price index remained high at 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points; manufacturing output price index increased by 1.7 percentage points[2] - The demand for black metal smelting and specialized equipment manufacturing showed improvement in new orders, indicating potential growth in fixed asset investment[2] - January non-manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the service sector[3] Construction Sector - January construction PMI index dropped to 48.8%, a significant decline of 4.0 percentage points; new orders index fell to 40.1%, down 7.3 percentage points[3] - Employment index in construction slightly improved to 41.1%, up 0.1 percentage points; business activity expectation index decreased to 49.8%, down 7.6 percentage points[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy benefits in the service consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of optimizing and expanding service supply to foster new growth points in service consumption. The government's plan includes 12 measures across key and potential areas, aiming to enhance service quality and support economic development [1][3]. - The focus on supply-side structural reforms is expected to stimulate both short-term and long-term consumer demand, promoting a virtuous cycle of employment, income, and consumption, thereby providing long-term support for economic growth [3][7]. - Key areas of focus include transportation, domestic services, cultural tourism, and sports events, with potential areas such as performance services and experiential consumption also highlighted for their growth potential [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support Areas - The report outlines three main policy support areas with twelve specific measures, including: 1. Transportation services aimed at integrating tourism and enhancing service quality [7]. 2. Domestic services focusing on innovation and skill training [7]. 3. Cultural tourism services that encourage infrastructure development and enhance consumer experiences [7]. Potential Growth Areas - The report identifies potential growth areas such as performance services, sports events, and experiential consumption, which are expected to drive demand in related sectors like accommodation and dining [3][7]. Financial and Structural Support - The report emphasizes the need for a robust support system, including the establishment of standards, credit building, and financial backing to ensure the stable development of service consumption [3][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant profit increase in 2025, with net profit projected to grow by 30.00% to 62.50% year-on-year, and non-recurring net profit expected to increase by 6.46% to 54.52% [3][8] - The company is leveraging technology to drive business growth, with a focus on smart technology to enhance operational efficiency across various business segments [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a main revenue of RMB 14,852 million for 2025, representing a growth rate of 26.0% [7] - The expected EBITDA for 2025 is RMB 485 million, with a significant increase in net profit to RMB 280 million, reflecting a growth rate of 36.2% [7] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 1.42, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.6 times [5][7] Business Strategy - The company is building a comprehensive talent supply chain solution through its "He Wa" platform, which is expected to show continued growth in various business metrics [8] - The company has developed industry-leading algorithms and data foundations, along with AI tools and products, to enhance efficiency [8] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 6,047.86 million and a three-month average trading volume of RMB 172.73 million [3] - The major shareholder, Huolguosikangda Venture Capital Co., Ltd., holds a 29.42% stake in the company [3]

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20260129 当前（2026 年 1 月 29 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：基础化工 （22.3%）、通信（14.0%）、建材（11.0%）、煤炭（10.0%）、计算机 （4.3%）、电子（4.3%）、医药（4.1%）、非银行金融（4.0%）、钢铁 （3.9%）、有色金属（3.6%）、电力设备及新能源（3.6%）、综合 （3.6%）、石油石化（3.2%）、建筑（2.9%）、家电（2.7%）、银行 （2.6%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤"行业轮动策略》20240914 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（十）：如何基 于资金流构建行业轮动策略？》20250326 《中银证券量化行 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 57.60 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is expected to achieve robust profit growth in 2025, driven by the ongoing AI infrastructure boom, and maintains a "Buy" rating [4][7] - The company is projected to benefit from the sustained growth in global AI infrastructure, with its cloud computing and telecommunications businesses expected to continue thriving [4] Financial Projections - The company is estimated to achieve revenues of RMB 909.81 billion, RMB 1,549.51 billion, and RMB 2,164.04 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 35.38 billion, RMB 64.46 billion, and RMB 85.60 billion [4][6] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 49.4% in 2025, 70.3% in 2026, and 39.7% in 2027 [6][11] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be RMB 1.78, RMB 3.25, and RMB 4.31 respectively, reflecting significant growth [6][11] Performance Highlights - The company anticipates a net profit of RMB 126-132 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%-63% [7] - The cloud services segment is expected to see a revenue increase of over 1.8 times in 2025, with AI server revenues projected to grow more than threefold [7] - The company’s high-speed switch business is also expected to experience substantial growth, with a projected revenue increase of 13 times for 800G and above switches in 2025 [7] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 32.3, 17.7, and 13.4 respectively [4][6] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios for the same years are expected to be 6.8, 5.8, and 4.7 [6][12] - The company is also projected to maintain a healthy dividend yield, with expected dividends of RMB 1.0, RMB 1.7, and RMB 2.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is expected to achieve steady growth in net profit for 2025, driven by a sustained AI infrastructure boom, maintaining the "Buy" rating [4][7] - The company's cloud computing and communication equipment businesses are anticipated to benefit from the ongoing global AI infrastructure growth, leading to accelerated earnings release [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 909.81 billion, RMB 1,549.51 billion, and RMB 2,164.04 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 35.38 billion, RMB 64.46 billion, and RMB 85.60 billion [4][6] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 49.4% in 2025, 70.3% in 2026, and 39.7% in 2027 [6] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be RMB 1.78, RMB 3.25, and RMB 4.31 respectively, with significant growth rates of 52.4%, 82.2%, and 32.8% [6][11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 32.3, 17.7, and 13.4 respectively [4][12] Performance Highlights - The company anticipates a net profit of RMB 126-132 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 56%-63% [7] - The cloud service provider's server revenue is expected to grow over 1.8 times year-on-year in 2025, with AI server revenue increasing by over 3 times [7] - The company’s high-speed switch business is projected to see a revenue increase of 13 times year-on-year for 2025 [7]