美国政府仍将贸易摩擦视为重要筹码，对金融市场的扰动可能重复上演。但 外部政策扰动背景客观上有利于国内保持流动性充裕。 相关研究报告 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《美国财政前景的变数》20250609 《财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦》 20250701 固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2026 年 1 月 25 日 外部政策扰动与国内流动性 高频数据扫描 固定收益 《从通胀形势看美联储"换帅"可能性》20250720 《美国就业数据爆冷、财政变数增加》20250908 《如何看长期收益率后续走势》20251013 《美联储的暗示与基本面的趋势》20251103 《关税辩论、就业降温、美债震荡》20251110 《AI 效益与美债》20 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market performance, valuation metrics, style indices, and fund flows without detailing quantitative model construction or factor definitions[1][2][3] - No formulas or detailed construction processes for models or factors are provided in the report[1][2][3]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 24 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62% 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.10%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 3.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.82%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率与上周持平，收于 1.00%；十年国债收益率下行 1BP 至 1.83%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.12%。 资产配置建议 2025 年经济增长目标圆满实现，2026 年稳增长需要财政政策和货币政策 协同发力。2025 年我国经济经历了美国关税政策给全球贸易带来的不确 定性冲击，出现了名义 GDP 和实际 GDP 同比增速倒挂的情况，内需对经 济增长前景预期偏弱导致需求疲弱，工业企业利润同比增速整体偏低等情 况，为稳定经济，我国实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，推 出"两重""两新"政策支持经济转型升级和内需有效释放，落实"反内卷"政 策引导实体经济持续向好发展，最终实现了全年经济增长 5%的目标。2026 年全球经济 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 24 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62% 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 相关研究报告 《中银量化多策略行业轮动周报 – 20260122》20260123 《"根本特里芬难题"与美元全球大循环的兴 衰》20260123 《2025 年外汇市场分析报告》20260122 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：陈琦 qi.chen@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110003 证券分析师：朱启兵 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.10%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 3.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.82%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率与上周持平，收于 1.00%；十年国债收益率下行 1BP 至 1.83%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.12%。 资产配置建议 2025 年经济增长目标圆满实现，2026 年稳增长需要财政政策和货币政策 协同发力。2025 年我国经济经历了 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, supported by net exports contributing 1.6 percentage points to the growth[10] - Domestic demand remains insufficient, with fixed asset investment declining by 3.8% year-on-year, significantly down from 2024[12] Consumer Behavior - The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) decreased to 0.61 by the end of 2025, down 0.08 from 2024[21] - Per capita consumer spending reached 29,000 yuan in 2025, a growth of 4.4% compared to 2024, marking the lowest growth rate since 2023[21] Employment and Income Trends - The average number of employees in industrial enterprises fell by 1.5% year-on-year as of November 2025, indicating a decline in employment absorption capacity[37] - The average disposable income per capita was 43,000 yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.0% increase from 2024, but the growth rate is slowing[32] Policy Implications - The "惠民生" (benefit people's livelihood) policy is emphasized as a key strategy to boost consumption in 2026, focusing on income growth and consumer support[46] - The government plans to implement measures to enhance consumer capacity, including support for small and medium enterprises and expanding investment channels[46][47] Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical uncertainties and persistent inflation in the U.S. pose risks to economic stability and consumer confidence[52][53] - The slow recovery of market expectations among domestic entities may hinder the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies in 2026[54]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with the highest weights in basic chemicals (22.4%), non-bank financials (11.0%), and building materials (10.9%) [1] - The report tracks the performance of various strategies, indicating that the long-term reversal strategy has achieved a monthly excess return of 2.2%, while the implied sentiment momentum strategy has a weekly excess return of 0.9% [2][3] - The report identifies the top three industries based on profitability expectations as coal, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials, while the worst performers include media, computers, and pharmaceuticals [10][15] Industry Performance Review - The average weekly return for the CITIC first-level industries is 0.9%, with a one-month average return of 6.0% [10] - The best-performing industries for the week are building materials (7.4%), oil and petrochemicals (6.2%), and basic chemicals (3.8%), while the worst are media (-5.5%), computers (-3.6%), and pharmaceuticals (-3.0%) [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [12] - Current industries triggering high valuation warnings include retail, computers, non-ferrous metals, defense, oil and petrochemicals, electronics, media, and machinery [13] Strategy Performance - The report details the performance of various strategies, with the highest weight currently in the traditional multi-factor scoring strategy (21.3%) and the lowest in the macro style industry rotation strategy (17.5%) [3] - The composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 4.7% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC first-level industry equal-weight benchmark by 0.4% [3] Sector Rankings and Sentiment Indicators - The top three sectors based on implied sentiment indicators are basic chemicals, light industry manufacturing, and electric power equipment and new energy [19] - The macro indicators favoring the top six industries include banking, oil and petrochemicals, coal, home appliances, non-ferrous metals, and construction [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue and net profit growth in 2025, driven by the ongoing niche storage cycle and advancements in AI storage solutions [4][9]. - The report highlights the company's proactive approach in customizing storage products for edge AI applications, positioning it well to capitalize on emerging market trends [9]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to generate revenues of approximately RMB 92.03 billion, RMB 120.41 billion, and RMB 160.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. - The expected net profits for the same years are RMB 16.10 billion, RMB 28.35 billion, and RMB 36.18 billion, indicating significant growth rates of 46.1% and 76.0% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][8]. - The report anticipates a substantial increase in the company's earnings per share (EPS), projected at RMB 2.31, RMB 4.07, and RMB 5.19 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 121.3% over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][3]. - The report notes a positive market sentiment towards the company's stock, with a relative performance of 93.0% against the index over the same period [3]. Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing uptrend in the storage industry, particularly in niche storage segments, which is expected to continue benefiting the company [4][9]. - The demand for DRAM products is projected to rise, with significant price increases noted in the market, particularly for DDR4 products, which have seen a price surge of 369% from July 2025 to January 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4][6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue and net profit growth in 2025, driven by the ongoing niche storage cycle and advancements in AI storage solutions [4][9] - The report highlights the company's proactive approach in customizing storage products for edge AI applications, positioning it well for future growth [9] Financial Summary - The company is projected to generate revenues of approximately RMB 92.03 billion, RMB 120.41 billion, and RMB 160.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8] - The expected net profits for the same years are RMB 16.10 billion, RMB 28.35 billion, and RMB 36.18 billion, indicating significant growth rates of 46.1% and 76.0% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][8] - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 130.4, 74.1, and 58.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's valuation [6][8] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 27.9%, 39.3%, and 121.3% over the past month, three months, and twelve months, respectively [3][4] - Relative to the Shanghai Composite Index, the company outperformed with returns of 25.5%, 34.0%, and 93.0% over the same periods [3][4] Industry Outlook - The report indicates a favorable market environment for niche storage products, with significant price increases observed in DDR4 memory products, which are expected to continue into 2026 [9] - The demand for customized storage solutions is anticipated to grow, particularly in sectors such as PC, servers, and automotive electronics, benefiting the company [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing high prosperity in space photovoltaic technology, with U.S. manufacturers announcing plans to expand solar photovoltaic capacity by 100GW, which will contribute incremental orders to domestic equipment and materials manufacturers [2][4]. - The rapid deployment of satellites overseas, alongside China's acceleration in satellite deployment planning, is driving the high prosperity of the space photovoltaic sector [4]. - The current lack of a defined technical solution for space photovoltaic technology suggests a sector-wide trend, benefiting equipment and materials segments directly from overseas expansion [4]. - Component manufacturers are expected to increase investments in the space photovoltaic niche, creating channel barriers [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [12]. Key Drivers of the Rating - U.S. manufacturers are set to expand solar photovoltaic capacity significantly, which will lead to increased orders for domestic suppliers [4]. - The successful launch of over 10,000 Starlink satellites by SpaceX has positioned it as a leader in satellite deployment, enhancing the demand for space photovoltaic applications [4]. - The ongoing development of various technical routes in space photovoltaic technology indicates a competitive landscape, with potential for multiple technologies to advance simultaneously [4]. - The focus on supply chain stability and real-world supply experience is crucial for manufacturers in the space photovoltaic sector [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Foster, JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and others, with a suggestion to pay attention to companies like Aotaiwei and Dongfang Risheng [4].

Group 1 - The report discusses the concept of "global imbalances" that emerged since the 1980s, with the United States being the primary trade deficit country, contributing significantly to the global trade deficit [2][3] - The dollar's global circulation is linked to the U.S. trade deficit, where dollars flow out through imports and return through investments in U.S. financial markets, creating a cycle that has led to global imbalances [3][4] - The decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971 marked the beginning of the "Fiat Money System," allowing for the possibility of global imbalances and the dollar's global circulation [4][13] Group 2 - The report highlights the "Fundamental Triffin Dilemma," which describes the conflict between U.S. hegemony and dollar hegemony, suggesting that the dollar's dominance may ultimately undermine U.S. power [35][38] - The introduction of the "Reciprocal Tariff" policy in April 2025 is seen as a significant event indicating a shift from the dollar's global circulation, reflecting the U.S. government's attempt to consolidate its power at the expense of dollar hegemony [41][44] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. manufacturing sector has declined significantly since the 1971 decoupling, with manufacturing's share of GDP dropping from 22% to 10% by 2024, indicating a trend of deindustrialization linked to dollar policies [28][31]