本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 2025年2月4日 | 4:44PM HKT 亚洲聚焦 评估中国以旧换新政策的影响 852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 ■ 中国经济增长在2024年四季度从年中低位回升,这部分得益于由政府补贴支持的 消费品以旧换新政策。尽管当局频频提及以旧换新对总需求的拉动,但对GDP增 长而言,政府补贴带来的增量需求发挥着重要影响,因为无论政府是否提供补 贴,很多销售本就会发生。在本报告中,我们将探究以旧换新政策对2024年零售 总额和GDP的影响,并对2025年的潜在影响作出预测。 ■ 正在实施的消费品以旧换新政策于去年4月26日正式发布,消费者按照要求淘汰高 能耗的旧车/家电、并购置新车/家电可获得政府补贴(中国版"旧车换现金 (cash-for-clunkers)"）。由于中央财政在8月份安排了人民币1,500亿元的补贴资 金,而 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - Trump's tariff policy announced on inauguration day is milder than expected, indicating lower priority for broad tariffs than previously anticipated[1] - The likelihood of imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico is assessed at 20%, reflecting a lower probability than earlier predictions[1] - The probability of imposing approximately 20 percentage points of tariffs on imports from China has been reduced from 90% to 70%, but remains a basic scenario[1] Group 2: Specific Tariff Predictions - The likelihood of implementing universal tariffs this year has been lowered to 25%, with expectations that any such tariffs would target "critical imports" accounting for 10-20% of total U.S. imports[1] - The probability of tariffs on EU automobiles is estimated at 55%, while the overall chance of tariffs on all imports is set at 25%[3] - The potential final tariff amounts for China include a 25% tariff on lists 1-2 (totaling $34 billion) and a 10% tariff on list 4b (totaling $116 billion)[3] Group 3: Implementation Timeline and Risks - The trade policy memorandum requires assessments to be submitted by April 1, suggesting that any new tariffs may be implemented in the second quarter, though risks lean towards a later implementation[1] - Trump's previous commitments regarding tariffs on Mexico and Canada have not been fulfilled, indicating uncertainty in future tariff actions[1] - The memorandum reflects a consideration of various legal authorities for imposing tariffs, including Section 301 and Section 232, but consensus on specific actions has not yet been reached[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huahai Pharmaceutical is "Sell" with a target price adjusted to RMB 14 from RMB 15, reflecting an 8.3% downside from the current price of RMB 15.26 [1][7][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2024 in the range of RMB 11.40 billion to RMB 12.40 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 37% to 49%, which exceeds previous estimates of RMB 10.52 billion. This positive outlook is attributed to lower-than-expected sales management expense ratios [1][5]. - The report indicates that the company has successfully transitioned from a raw material manufacturer to a leading exporter of generic drugs, primarily serving the US and Chinese markets. However, profitability remains challenged due to increasing pressure on generic products in the US market, rising R&D costs, and ongoing patent litigation [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 to 2027 have been adjusted, with 2024 revenue expected to be RMB 9.568 billion and net profit at RMB 1.198 billion, reflecting a 13.9% increase from previous estimates. The EPS for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.80, up 12.7% from earlier predictions [4][6]. Market Position and Challenges - Huahai Pharmaceutical faces challenges in maintaining profitability due to increasing competition in the US market, rising R&D costs, and legal issues related to patent disputes. The current expected P/E ratio is above the five-year average, indicating a potentially overvalued stock [5][6]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of RMB 14 is based on a 16x five-year exit P/E valuation method, assuming an 8% CAGR in expected EPS over the next five years. The report highlights potential upside risks, including better-than-expected product pipeline deliveries and sales, as well as a recovery in the US market [6][7].

Tariff Policy and Expectations - The Trump administration's tariff policy is expected to increase rates on autos and imports from China, with a 70% probability for the latter[2] - Revised tariff assumptions indicate potential increases from 25% to 60% on certain Chinese imports, affecting approximately $34 billion[3] Retaliation Risks - Historical data suggests that retaliatory tariffs from trading partners could mirror previous responses, targeting similar products[4] - Retaliatory tariffs led to a 20% decline in US exports to countries imposing such tariffs, following an average tariff rate increase of 15 percentage points[20] Economic Impact - Retaliatory tariffs significantly impacted US exports of homogeneous goods, with declines of 30-60% for agricultural and natural resource products[26] - The S&P 500 index fell by 7% on days when foreign countries announced retaliatory tariffs, compounding a 5% decline on US tariff announcement days[30] Targeted Products - Key sectors likely to be targeted by foreign retaliation include autos, agricultural products, and raw materials, which were heavily affected in the last trade war[37] - China may impose additional measures beyond tariffs, such as export controls on critical materials that are difficult to source elsewhere[53]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to be in a "sweet spot" with robust growth and declining inflation by the presidential inauguration in January 2025, with an estimated real GDP growth of 2.6% in Q4 2024 and a similar growth rate expected for 2025, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than Bloomberg's latest market forecast [1][2][3] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market signals are aligning with GDP signals, as non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, with three and six-month trend rates exceeding the estimated breakeven growth rate of 150,000 jobs needed to maintain stable unemployment [4][6] - The current labor market is characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, with a composite measure of labor market tightness remaining below levels seen in 2018-2019, which correlates with a wage growth rate of 3.5%-4% that aligns with a 2% inflation target [7][8] Inflation Trends - December's inflation was below expectations, with core PCE price growth at 0.16%, indicating a gradual decline in inflation, although this trend may be obscured by month-to-month data volatility and adjustments [9][14] - The market remains sensitive to inflation surprises, with expectations for a potential acceleration in core PCE growth due to the "January effect" [13][14] Monetary Policy Outlook - Confidence in U.S. monetary policy suggests no interest rate cuts in January, with a baseline forecast predicting two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and December 2025, leading to a terminal rate of 3.5%-3.75% [14][15] - The pricing of monetary policy risks appears overly hawkish, with potential for earlier rate cuts if economic data deteriorates significantly [14][15] Trade Policy Implications - The Trump administration is expected to increase tariffs on China by an average of 20 percentage points and impose high tariffs on European and Mexican automotive products, with the potential for further trade policy changes impacting financial markets [16][17] European Market Insights - The European market is facing trade policy uncertainties, with a growth forecast of 0.8% that remains below market expectations, and the European Central Bank may increase rate cuts to 50 basis points if the situation escalates [19][21] Japanese Economic Policy - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, supported by rising wage growth trends, although a decision to forgo this increase could lead to significant currency depreciation [22][23] Chinese Economic Performance - China's GDP growth reached 6.6% in Q4 2024, achieving the 5% growth target for 2024, but a slowdown to 4.0% is anticipated in Q1 2025 due to the diminishing effects of stimulus policies [24][25] Market Strategy - There is a belief that the pricing of rate cuts by major developed market central banks is too low, with long-term interest rates expected to decline, particularly in the U.S. and Germany [26]

Investment Rating - The report rates Nari Tech as a "Buy" and also recommends buying for companies such as Sungrow, Times Electric H, Envicool, and Kehua, which provide essential technologies for renewable energy integration [3][14]. Core Insights - The Chinese power grid is expected to undergo a transformation, with a projected annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy and advancements in smart grid technology [9][31]. - In 2025, China's power grid investment is anticipated to reach a record high of RMB 690 billion, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, supported by counter-cyclical policies and the acceleration of ultra-high voltage (UHV) construction [10][23]. - The share of renewable energy in China's total electricity generation is expected to rise from 15% in 2023 to 35% by 2030, necessitating significant investments in grid infrastructure to accommodate this transition [11][37]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report forecasts that nearly 60% of incremental grid investment from 2024 to 2030 will focus on renewable energy integration, highlighting the urgent need for grid upgrades to manage the increasing share of renewables [31][32]. - UHV transmission is projected to be the fastest-growing segment, with investments expected to grow by 43% year-on-year in 2025, as it plays a critical role in transporting renewable energy from generation sites to consumption centers [32][51]. Renewable Energy Integration - The integration of renewable energy sources is crucial, as the current grid infrastructure faces challenges in accommodating the variability of wind and solar power [40][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of digital technologies and smart grid solutions to enhance grid flexibility and reliability, which are essential for managing the increasing share of renewable energy [32][40]. Comparative Analysis - China's grid investment significantly outpaces that of other regions, with an allocation of approximately USD 74 billion in 2023, indicating its leadership in global grid development [58]. - The report draws parallels with Germany's experience, where a substantial increase in renewable energy share necessitated a fourfold increase in grid investment from 2011 to 2023 [11][58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Developments and Holdings is Neutral [2][9]. Core Views - The 2024 profit forecast is impacted by profit margins and impairment factors, with a projected net profit of RMB 5 billion, a 58% year-on-year decline, and a 47% decrease compared to previous estimates [1]. - The management's guidance for 2025 indicates that net profit will remain flat compared to 2024, with contract sales gross margin recovery dependent on market conditions [1][2]. - The company plans to revitalize 8 million square meters of undeveloped land, which constitutes approximately 27% of its land reserves by the end of 2024 [1][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2024 is RMB 5 billion, down 58% year-on-year, with project turnover expected to decline by 10% to RMB 313 billion [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is anticipated to decrease by 2 percentage points to around 14% [1]. - The company plans to issue RMB 9.5 billion in convertible bonds to supplement capital [1]. Sales Outlook - In December 2024, the real estate sales revenue decreased by 37% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year to RMB 15 billion, with an annual sales revenue of RMB 323 billion, a 23% decline [6]. - For 2025, the company expects a 5% year-on-year increase in contract sales revenue, supported by RMB 500 billion in saleable resources [6]. Land Acquisition - In Q4 2024, Poly Developments added 13 new projects with a total land area of 1.06 million square meters at a total land price of RMB 26.7 billion, which is 33% of the quarterly contract sales revenue [7]. - The total land price for 2024 was RMB 68.3 billion, accounting for 21% of the annual contract sales revenue [7]. Valuation - The target price based on net asset value is set at RMB 10.0, reflecting a 10% discount to the expected net asset value by the end of 2025 [11]. - The current stock price is at a 22% discount to the expected net asset value for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 15.5% [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nari Technology (国电南瑞) with a "Buy" rating and sets a 12-month target price of RMB 29.0, implying a 26% upside potential from the current price [1][84][103]. Core Insights - Nari Technology is positioned to benefit significantly from the structural demand in China's smart grid sector, with expectations of strong revenue and net profit growth of 10% and 11% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, respectively [1][101]. - The report highlights that China's power grid investment is projected to reach a record high of RMB 690 billion in 2025, driven by fiscal support and a focus on integrating renewable energy sources [1][34][35]. - Nari Technology maintains a dominant market share in various segments, including UHV converter valves and grid digitalization, with market shares ranging from 34% to 70% [2][54][101]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - Nari Technology is a key player in the power equipment sector, providing a comprehensive range of products that support the modernization of China's power grid [50][54]. - The company is expected to maintain its leadership in software and hardware technologies, with a significant portion of its revenue (40%) derived from software solutions [2][49][54]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the structural growth in China's power grid investments, particularly in UHV and smart grid technologies, which are essential for integrating renewable energy sources [14][22][48]. - It is anticipated that 60% of incremental grid investments from 2024 to 2030 will be driven by the intake of renewable energy [14][16]. Financial Performance - Nari Technology's financial outlook is robust, with projected gross profit margins stabilizing at 28% and operating margins improving to 16% by 2030 [76][77]. - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 18.3% by 2030, reflecting strong financial performance compared to peers [77][91]. Valuation - The target price of RMB 29.0 is based on a 25x P/E multiple for 2025, which is considered attractive given the company's growth prospects and market position [84][85]. - Nari Technology is currently trading at a lower valuation compared to its historical averages and domestic peers, suggesting potential for valuation expansion [85][97].

Economic Growth - China's Q4 GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations and achieving the government's annual growth target of around 5%[1] - Q4 GDP annualized growth rate was 6.6%, up from 5.3% in Q3 and 3.6% in Q2[2] - The actual GDP growth rate is expected to slow to 4.0% in Q1 2025[3] Temporary Factors - Recent economic improvements are attributed to temporary factors such as improved weather conditions, preemptive exports before potential tariff increases, and an earlier Lunar New Year[2] - The government’s stimulus policies, including subsidies for appliance sales, led to a 33% year-on-year increase in Q4 appliance sales[3] Market Sentiment - There is a discrepancy between policymakers' focus on actual GDP growth and investors' emphasis on nominal GDP growth and specific measures[7] - Following the policy shift in September, the stock market initially surged over 20% but has since declined, indicating investor skepticism[7] Policy Recommendations - Clear and comprehensive plans are needed to address real estate, local government debt, and financial risks to reduce uncertainty[16] - Strong and sustained cyclical easing policies are essential to boost demand, alleviate deflationary pressures, and restore confidence[19] Structural Reforms - Structural reforms should be implemented to shift the economy from production and investment towards consumption, including raising minimum wages and expanding social security coverage[23] - The current economic model is overly reliant on production, as evidenced by a significant increase in solar cell exports but a corresponding drop in export value[22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to Arrow Home Group (001322 SZ) with a 12-month target price of RMB 6 1, reflecting a 27 6% downside from the current price of RMB 8 42 [1][9] Core Views - Arrow Home Group's Q4 2024 revenue growth showed a sequential recovery, in line with expectations, but profitability remains under pressure due to intense industry competition [1] - The company's 2024 revenue was RMB 7 15 billion, down 6 5% YoY, primarily due to increased competition in the sanitary ware industry [4] - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 50-70 million, a significant decline of 83%-88% YoY, driven by price competition and reduced operating leverage [4] - Gross margin for 2024 fell by 2 06 percentage points YoY, impacted by weak pricing and rising expense ratios [4] - The report revised down the EPS forecasts for 2025-26 by 12%-27% to reflect the latest performance guidance [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: 2024 revenue was RMB 7 15 billion, down 6 5% YoY, with Q4 revenue showing a low single-digit YoY decline, narrowing from the -16%/-6% declines in Q2/Q3 [4] - **Profitability**: 2024 net profit was RMB 50-70 million, down 83%-88% YoY, with Q4 net profit at RMB 18-38 million, a 72%-87% YoY decline but an improvement from Q3 losses [4] - **Gross Margin**: 2024 gross margin was 24 9%, down 2 06 percentage points YoY, with 2025-26 gross margins expected to recover to 26 5% and 27 8%, respectively [5] - **Operating Margin**: 2024 operating margin was 1 0%, down 5 05 percentage points YoY, with 2025-26 operating margins forecasted at 3 9% and 6 3% [5] - **EPS**: 2024 EPS was RMB 0 06, down 67 8% YoY, with 2025-26 EPS forecasts revised to RMB 0 28 and RMB 0 47, respectively [5] Industry and Market Position - Arrow Home Group is the largest domestic sanitary ware brand and a leader in the smart toilet market, which has low penetration rates [8] - The report is optimistic about long-term growth in smart toilet penetration and import substitution but expects short-term pressure from weak retail demand and the real estate market [8] - Increased competition and potential consumer downgrading in the smart toilet market are expected to pressure margins in the near term [8] Valuation and Forecasts - The 12-month target price of RMB 6 1 is based on a 14x exit P/E multiple applied to the 2026 EPS forecast, discounted back to 2025 at a 9 8% cost of equity [2][9] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-26 are RMB 7 63 billion and RMB 7 90 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 6 8% and 3 6% [5] - Net income forecasts for 2025-26 are RMB 273 million and RMB 457 million, reflecting significant YoY growth of 355 3% and 67 3%, respectively [5]