2025 年 04 月 14 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 | | | chenmz@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 张娟娟 S0350523110004 | | | zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 罗婉琦 S0350524050002 | | | luowq@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 业绩基本符合预期，新业务投入预计影响可控 ——京东集团-SW（9618.HK）2025Q1 业绩前 瞻 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | | | 2025/04/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 京 东 | 集 | 团 | -8.3% | 12.2% | 38.8% | | -SW | | | | | | | 恒生指数 | | | -12.1% | 9.7% | 22.3% | | 市场数据 | 2025/0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Geely Automobile's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 240.19 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 34% [7]. - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with estimates ranging from 5.2 to 5.8 billion RMB, indicating a substantial growth compared to previous periods [7]. - The product lineup for 2025 includes several new energy models, enhancing the company's market competitiveness and consumer appeal [7]. - The total sales volume for Q1 2025 reached 704,000 units, with new energy vehicle sales at 340,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 124.3% [7]. - The company aims for a total sales target of 2.71 million units in 2025, with 1.5 million units expected to be new energy vehicles [7]. - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge through systematic operations in a complex market environment [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Geely Automobile are as follows: - 2023: 179.85 billion RMB - 2024: 240.19 billion RMB - 2025E: 368.14 billion RMB - 2026E: 432.73 billion RMB - 2027E: 486.70 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 21% for 2023, 34% for 2024, and 53% for 2025 [3][8]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 5.17 billion RMB - 2024: 16.63 billion RMB - 2025E: 12.94 billion RMB - 2026E: 15.80 billion RMB - 2027E: 19.57 billion RMB - The report indicates a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 213% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Logistics [2][4][9] Core Views - JD Logistics is expected to achieve stable revenue growth of approximately 10% in Q1 2025, with Non-IFRS net profit also showing stable growth [3][8][9] - The company is entering a stable profitability phase, shifting its valuation method from Price-to-Sales (PS) to Price-to-Earnings (PE) [4][9] Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, JD Logistics recorded total revenue of RMB 182.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with Non-IFRS net profit reaching RMB 7.9 billion, up 186.8% [3][8] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 203.3 billion, reflecting an 11.2% increase, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin projected at 4.0% [4][9] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on optimizing its network structure and cost management to enhance operational efficiency and profit levels [3][4] - JD Logistics anticipates a significant increase in overseas warehouse space by over 100% by the end of 2025, alongside continued development of domestic bonded warehouses and direct mail warehouses [4] Market Position and Strategy - The report highlights that JD Logistics' express delivery business is expected to grow faster than the industry average, with a focus on improving delivery efficiency and expanding high-margin premium services [4][9] - The integration of operations with Debon is progressing smoothly, contributing positively to profit stability [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a retail revenue growth of 10%-15% for its main brand and children's clothing in Q1 2025, with e-commerce revenue growth of approximately 35%-40% [2][3] - The company is benefiting from a high cost-performance positioning that aligns with current consumer trends, and there is still room for store openings and expansion [3] - The company has successfully launched new products in various categories, including running and basketball shoes, which have received positive market attention [4][5] - The company is expanding its market presence with new store formats and international locations, including the opening of its first overseas store in Malaysia [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company announced Q1 2025 operational data showing significant growth in retail revenue across its main brand, children's clothing, and e-commerce platforms [2] Analysis and Judgments - The company has seen improved revenue growth rates in both offline and online channels compared to previous quarters, driven by effective marketing strategies and product launches [3] - The company is focusing on product innovation in the professional sports sector, enhancing its offerings in running and basketball categories [4] - The company is actively participating in sports events and sponsorships to strengthen its brand presence [5] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from the current consumer downgrade trend, with strong sales performance in running shoes and basketball shoes [7] - The company has room for store expansion and is likely to see continued online revenue growth, contributing positively to its overall performance [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 11.62 billion, 13.35 billion, and 15.32 billion respectively, with net profits of 1.39 billion, 1.63 billion, and 1.87 billion [8]

" " 核心观点 智能驾驶 SoC 芯片市场千亿规模，国产芯片厂商崭露头角。技术政策 与需求共振，智能驾驶市场加速渗透。2024 年 L2 及以上乘用车销量 超过 1200 万辆，渗透率 55.8%，预计到 2028 年，中国市场渗透率将 达到 93.5%，全球渗透率也将提升至 87.9%。ADAS 普及与高算力需求 共驱，SoC 市场步入千亿级增长时代。（1）ADAS 功能大规模普及将推 动 SoC 单车价值量显著提升；（2）L2+/L3 级智能驾驶的逐步落地将带 动高算力 SoC 芯片需求持续扩大。 高算力 SoC + 跨域 SoC 双线布局，布局机器人"大小脑"。公司以华 山系列（高算力 SoC）与武当系列（跨域 SoC）为核心，满足 L2 至 L4 级智能驾驶及跨域计算需求。机器人方面，基于 C1200 系列芯片、 A2000 系列布局机器人大小脑芯片，共同推动高性能计算驱动的智能 硬件技术发展。在应用场景上逐步拓展，公司拓展至机器人在工业、 医疗、服务等领域等场景，为智能机器人技术的规模化落地提供坚实 支撑。目前，公司已与傅利叶、武汉大学刘胜院士团队等在灵巧手及 人形机器人领域达成合作。 掌握自研车 ...

" " 核心观点 智能驾驶 SoC 芯片市场千亿规模，国产芯片厂商崭露头角。技术政策 与需求共振，智能驾驶市场加速渗透。2024 年 L2 及以上乘用车销量 超过 1200 万辆，渗透率 55.8%，预计到 2028 年，中国市场渗透率将 达到 93.5%，全球渗透率也将提升至 87.9%。ADAS 普及与高算力需求 共驱，SoC 市场步入千亿级增长时代。（1）ADAS 功能大规模普及将推 动 SoC 单车价值量显著提升；（2）L2+/L3 级智能驾驶的逐步落地将带 动高算力 SoC 芯片需求持续扩大。 高算力 SoC + 跨域 SoC 双线布局，布局机器人"大小脑"。公司以华 山系列（高算力 SoC）与武当系列（跨域 SoC）为核心，满足 L2 至 L4 级智能驾驶及跨域计算需求。机器人方面，基于 C1200 系列芯片、 A2000 系列布局机器人大小脑芯片，共同推动高性能计算驱动的智能 硬件技术发展。在应用场景上逐步拓展，公司拓展至机器人在工业、 医疗、服务等领域等场景，为智能机器人技术的规模化落地提供坚实 支撑。目前，公司已与傅利叶、武汉大学刘胜院士团队等在灵巧手及 人形机器人领域达成合作。 掌握自研车 ...

❑ 二、超预期逻辑 1）周大福在品牌影响力、产品设计迭代等环节表现出极强优势，公司从 24 年开 始全力推进品牌转型，同店收入有望超预期增长。 市场担忧：周大福 24 年同店大幅下滑，在金价持续新高、行业竞争加剧背景下 公司的终端动销表现或将持续承压。 我们认为：周大福基于其极强品牌力、产品力、渠道力，24 年起推动品牌形象 升级、产品结构升级、门店效益提升，卓有成效，同店收入有望恢复快速增长。 周大福是黄金珠宝行业龙头品牌，发展历史悠久、品牌定位高端、渠道覆盖广 泛，拥有极强的品牌认知和影响力。公司 18 年起陆续推出"新城镇战略"和省 代政策，发力下沉市场和渠道扩张，23年后公司对渠道扩张策略进行调整，聚焦 品牌形象升级和门店效益提升。 24 年以来，周大福全力推进品牌转型：1）品牌形象升级：周大福全新概念店于 24 年 9 月落地香港中环，并陆续落地西安和深圳，新概念店采用展览式布局展示 各个珠宝系列，店效高于店铺平均水平，公司未来五年将陆续更新店铺形象； 2）产品结构升级：24年 4月、8月先后推出"传福"、"故宫"系列，蕴含品牌独 特印记和深厚文化寓意，主要以一口价模式销售，带动 25 财年上半年中 ...

| 恒生指数 | 21417.4 | | --- | --- | | 目标价（港元） | 7.31 港元 | | 潜在涨幅/跌幅 | 106.5% | | 市场数据 | | | 收盘价 | 3.54 港元 | | 52 周最高/最低价(港元) | 4.8/3.36 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿港元） | 43.86 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 43.86 | 股价相对走势 证券研究报告 | 公司研究报告 材料 | 新材料 · | 涨跌幅% | 1m | 3m | 1y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -8.76 | 0.00 | -3.80 | | 相对表现 | 1.85 | -13.47 | -3.41 | 资料来源：Wind 资讯、盈立证券 投资评级（推荐） 环球新材国际（6616.HK） 2025 年4月14 日 护城河优势凸显，外延式并购开启发展新篇章 核心观点 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济与下游行业波动风险、跨国收购相关风险、产业协同与成本控制风险 | 证券分析师 | 公司核心财务数据预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司研究报告 投资评级（推荐） 环球新材国际（6616.HK） 材料 | 新材料 · | 恒生指数 | 21417.4 | | --- | --- | | 目标价（港元） | 7.31 港元 | | 潜在涨幅/跌幅 | 106.5% | | 市场数据 | | | 收盘价 | 3.54 港元 | | 52 周最高/最低价(港元) | 4.8/3.36 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿港元） | 43.86 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 43.86 | 股价相对走势 | 涨跌幅% | 1m | 3m | 1y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -8.76 | 0.00 | -3.80 | | 相对表现 | 1.85 | -13.47 | -3.41 | 资料来源：Wind 资讯、盈立证券 2025 年4月14 日 护城河优势凸显，外延式并购开启发展新篇章 核心观点 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济与下游行业波动风险、跨国收购相关风险、产业协同与成本控制风险 | 证券分析师 | 公司核心财务数据预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.52, based on a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion [2][9][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a focus on enhancing product structure and shareholder returns, with a significant dividend payout of RMB 27.5 billion and a dividend payout ratio of 78% [8]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 20.75 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 3.57 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year [4][8]. - The company is experiencing a strong performance in its premium product lines, particularly the "卓睿" brand, which is expected to see sales growth exceeding 60% [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: RMB 21.61 billion (2025E), RMB 22.99 billion (2026E), and RMB 24.31 billion (2027E), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.4%, and 5.7% [4]. - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.44, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.51, respectively [2][9]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 67.1% by 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to reach 18.6% [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the FCFF valuation method, resulting in a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion, translating to a target price of HKD 7.52 [2][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 15.4 in 2023 to 11.3 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [4][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 62.87% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [6].