Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HK$108.40, representing a 4% increase from the previous target price of HK$104.20 [1]. Core Views - Anta Sports' performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, particularly for the FILA brand, while Descente and KOLON continued to show strong growth [1]. - The company is expected to achieve its annual guidance, with a projected revenue growth of 12.4% year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - The report highlights challenges for FILA in meeting its annual targets, with anticipated revenue growth between 4.6% and 5.2% for the year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 70,096 million, with a slight downward adjustment of 0.9% from previous estimates [2]. - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 63.2% across the forecast period [2]. - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 14,122 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% from earlier projections [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 4.99, down 1% from previous estimates [1][2]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$91.40, with an upside potential of 19% to the target price [1]. - The market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately US$33.273 billion [1]. - The report indicates that the company's stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 16.7 for 2024, which is competitive compared to peers [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The company's main brand shows steady growth, while FILA experiences a slight decline, with other brands accelerating their performance. The main brand is expected to grow in the low single digits year-on-year, while FILA has seen its first quarterly year-on-year decline since Q4 2022 [4] - The company has opened over 300 new stores during the National Day holiday, enhancing its market coverage and targeting specific consumer segments with diverse store formats [4] - A share repurchase plan of up to HKD 10 billion is expected to enhance shareholder returns and stabilize the stock price [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 13.765 billion and HKD 13.993 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation range of 18-20X for 2024 [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 62.356 billion in 2023 to HKD 83.923 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from HKD 10.236 billion in 2023 to HKD 14.696 billion in 2026, with a significant year-on-year growth of 34.9% in 2024 [5] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 62.7% from 2024 onwards [5] Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 25.29 for 2023, decreasing to 17.60 by 2026 [8] - The projected price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5.03 in 2023 to 3.57 in 2026 [8] - The expected dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.2% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating and raise target price to HK$ 126.68, based on 23x FY25E P/E, revised up from 20x [3][5][11] Core Views - Despite a disappointing 3Q24 performance, the outlook for 4Q24E is positive due to strong retail sales growth during the National Day holidays and government stimulus measures [3] - The company has not revised down its FY24E sales growth guidance, but a more conservative estimate is adopted [3] - Confidence in net profit margin remains high, supported by effective cost control and a resilient gross profit margin [3][6] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - FY24E revenue forecast is RMB 69,483 million, with a slight downward revision of -1.2% from previous estimates [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for FY24E is revised up by 4.8% to RMB 12,886 million [7] - Diluted EPS for FY24E is projected at RMB 4.601, reflecting a 4.8% increase from previous estimates [7] Sales Growth Expectations - Retail sales growth for Anta and FILA is expected to turn around in 4Q24E, with estimates of 16% and 10% respectively [3] - The company anticipates high single-digit to mid-single-digit retail sales growth for Anta and FILA in FY24E, compared to the company's guidance of over 10% [3] Market Position and Brand Performance - Anta's brand reforms are yielding positive results, with successful product launches and an expanded customer base through various store formats [3] - FILA is also expected to benefit from store revamps and new product series, although its recent performance has been weaker [3] Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 18x FY25E P/E, which is considered not demanding compared to its 5-year average of 25x [3] - The target price reflects a potential upside of 26.6% from the current price of HK$ 100.10 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 119 8, implying a potential upside of 19 7% from the current price of HKD 100 1 [2][3] Core Views - Anta Sports' 3Q24 sales performance fell short of market expectations, with both Anta and Fila brands underperforming Anta brand sales grew by mid-single digits, while Fila sales declined by low-single digits [2] - Despite the weak 3Q24 performance, the company has not revised its full-year 2024 sales guidance, with management expressing confidence in achieving the targets due to strong sales during the National Day holiday [2] - The report highlights Anta's continued brand strength, driven by store upgrades and expansion into new e-commerce channels like Douyin, as well as its multi-brand strategy [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 69 369 million, representing an 11 2% YoY growth, while core net profit is forecasted at RMB 12 064 million, up 17 9% YoY [3][5] - Gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 62 8% in 2024E, with operating margin projected at 24 0% [5] - The report slightly revised down the 2024E revenue and profit forecasts due to a more conservative outlook for 4Q24 [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand's 3Q24 sales grew by mid-single digits, outperforming domestic competitors, while Fila's sales declined by low-single digits, with its core product line remaining flat [2] - Descente and Kolon maintained strong growth momentum in 3Q24, continuing their high growth rates from the first half of the year [2] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta brand at 4-5x and Fila close to 5x, allowing stable retail discounts [2] Market and Industry Context - The report notes that Anta Sports remains one of the fastest-growing brands in China's sportswear industry, benefiting from its multi-brand strategy and strong brand positioning [2] - The company's performance during the National Day holiday was driven by its new offline store formats, such as Anta Champion stores and Super Anta, which capitalized on the surge in tourism and consumption [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 119 8 is based on a 22x 2025E P/E multiple, reflecting improved market sentiment and liquidity in Hong Kong, as well as expectations for further stimulus policies [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for Anta's stock price: optimistic (HKD 149 8), base case (HKD 119 8), and pessimistic (HKD 95 8), with probabilities of 25%, 55%, and 20%, respectively [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (02020) with a 6-month outlook [2] Core Views - Anta brand product sales grew by mid-single digits YoY in Q3 2024, while FILA brand sales declined by low single digits YoY [2] - All other brands under Anta Sports achieved 45-50% YoY growth in sales [2] - The company opened over 300 new stores during the National Day period, focusing on differentiated store formats [3] Business Strategy - Anta is implementing a differentiated store strategy to cater to diverse consumer needs, moving away from uniform store formats [3] - The company is strengthening its presence in high-end markets and core business districts through flagship stores like "Arena Level" and "Hall of Fame Level" [3] - Anta is targeting niche markets with specialized stores such as "Anta Champion" and "Anta Collection" [3] - For the mass market, Anta launched "Super Anta," a comprehensive sports retail concept offering customized products and unique shopping experiences [3] Store Formats - Anta introduced two distinct store formats: "White Label" and "Black Label" [4] - White Label stores focus on minimalist art and exclusive products, with plans for one flagship store per city [4] - Black Label stores emphasize technology and competitive sports atmosphere, with broader coverage and higher store count compared to White Label [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 70.1 billion in 2024, RMB 78.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 86.8 billion in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 13.4 billion (including one-time gains) in 2024, RMB 13.2 billion in 2025, and RMB 14.6 billion in 2026 [7] - EPS is expected to be RMB 4.7/share in 2024 and 2025, increasing to RMB 5.2/share in 2026 [7] - The PE ratio is estimated at 15x for 2024 and 2025, and 14x for 2026 [7] Market Performance - Anta Sports' stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 29% decline at its lowest point and a 25% increase at its peak between October 2023 and June 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for Anta Sports [2][4]. Core Views - Q3 performance was impacted by external factors, with the main brand and FILA experiencing pressure on revenue, but discount inventory remains healthy. The sales performance during the National Day holiday was outstanding, and attention is drawn to future promotional sales [4]. - Due to the overall pressure on revenue in Q3, the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 13.6 billion, 13.9 billion, and 15.7 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 19, and 17 times [4]. - The report highlights that the main brand and FILA's revenue growth was below internal expectations, while other brands showed strong performance. The company is making steady progress in opening new store formats, reflecting strong market insight and operational capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 revenue growth for the main brand and FILA was in the low single digits, while other brands grew by 45-50%. The main brand's performance was slightly above industry standards, particularly in direct sales [4]. - The company plans to open 50 new stores by the end of the year, indicating a focus on innovative store formats [4]. National Day Sales - Sales during the National Day holiday were strong, with both customer traffic and sales conversion rates performing well. The inventory discount levels remained healthy, suggesting a positive outlook for Q4 sales [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth rates of 10.8%, 11.3%, and 11.5% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 33.1%, 1.8%, and 13.1% for the same years [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [4][5] Core Views - The retail performance of Anta Sports shows brand differentiation, with the Anta brand achieving single-digit growth in Q3 2024, while FILA experienced a slight decline. Other brands saw a growth of 45-50%, driven by strong brand power and outdoor trends [4][5] - Online sales growth outpaced offline, with Anta's e-commerce continuing to grow over 20%. The company is preparing for the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival, aiming to outperform peers while balancing scale growth and profit margins [4][5] - Inventory levels remain healthy, with discount rates improving steadily. Anta's offline discount rates remained stable year-on-year, while online discounts improved. This indicates that retail growth is not solely reliant on discounting, reflecting high-quality sales growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand showed single-digit growth in Q3 2024, with both adult and children's segments performing well. FILA brand saw a low single-digit decline, while other brands grew by 45-50% [4][5] - The performance of Kolon Sport and DESCENTE brands remained strong, with growth rates of 65-70% and over 30%, respectively [4] Channel Analysis - Online sales growth was superior to offline, with Anta's e-commerce achieving over 20% growth. The company is innovating in offline store formats to capture price-sensitive consumers [4][5] Financial Outlook - The company expects a recovery in sales during the National Day holiday, with a focus on cost control to enhance profit visibility for the year. The sales target for the year relies on achieving higher growth in Q4 [5] - The projected net profit for 2024 is adjusted to 134.1 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates, with a PE ratio of 19 times [5][6]

隐证券 纺织服饰/服装家纺 公 司 研 究 安踏体育（02020.HK） 2024 年 10 月 11 日 Q3 FILA 流水波动，期待 Q4 电商旺季下流水表现 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/10 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 100.10 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 107.50/60.200 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 2,832.06 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 2,832.06 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 28.29 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 28.29 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 25.82 | 股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 安踏体育 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024H1 核心利润超预期，百亿回购 提振信心 —港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.30 《Q2 零售波动下流水符合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 117.98, up from the previous target of HKD 93.5 [2][7][11]. Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrated resilient operational performance in Q3 2024, with a steady revenue growth despite short-term disruptions caused by weather and macroeconomic factors. The Anta brand achieved a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales, while the Fila brand experienced a low single-digit decline [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong operational resilience of Anta as a market leader, maintaining its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 at RMB 4.27, 4.88, and 5.51 respectively. The target price is based on a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22.0x for 2025, reflecting the company's significant advantages in market share, revenue scale, and brand strength [2][11]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance - Anta brand retail sales showed a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while Fila brand retail sales declined by a low single-digit percentage. Other brands, including Descente and Kolon, saw retail sales growth of 45-50% [2][4]. - The operational disruptions in Q3 were attributed to external factors such as typhoons and high temperatures, but Anta's performance remained industry-leading [2][3]. Brand Analysis - Anta's main brand is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with online sales projected to exceed 20% year-on-year growth for the full year 2024. The company is effectively expanding its market reach through new store formats targeting specific customer segments [3][4]. - Fila's performance has been impacted by external market conditions, but its operational health remains manageable, with retail discounts stable and inventory turnover ratios healthy [4][5]. Other Brands - Other brands under Anta are experiencing rapid growth, particularly in outdoor apparel, with Descente and Kolon showing significant year-on-year increases in sales [5][9]. - The report anticipates that the retail environment will remain challenging in the fourth quarter, but effective cost control and product-channel strategies will support overall performance and profitability [5][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are set at RMB 69.97 billion for 2024, with expected year-on-year growth of 12.21%. Net profit is projected to reach RMB 13.25 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 29.42% [6][9][10]. - The report outlines a consistent growth trend in EPS, with estimates of RMB 4.27 for 2024, RMB 4.88 for 2025, and RMB 5.51 for 2026, indicating strong profitability [10][15].

公司近一年市场表现 2024 年 10 月 11 日 公司研究/公司快报 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 安踏品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，折扣与库存保持健康水平。2024Q3，安踏 品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，流水增速较 2 季度有所减弱，预计零售流水达成率弱 于公司内部预期。分渠道看，预计线上渠道表现好于线下，2024Q3，安踏品牌线上渠道 流水预计同比增长 20%以上。分品类看，安踏大货、安踏儿童零售流水同比增长均为中 单位数。库存方面，截至 2024Q3 末，安踏品牌库渠道库存周转 4 个月以上，渠道库存 处于健康水平。零售折扣方面，安踏品牌整体零售折扣改善，其中线上零售折扣改善， 线下零售折扣持平。 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | 市场数据： 2024 年 10 月 | 10 日 | | 收盘价（港元）： | 100.10 | | 年内最高/最低（港元）： | 107.50/60.200 | | 流通股/总股本（亿股）： | 28.29/28.29 | | 流通市值（亿港元）： | 2,832.06 | | ...