Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [6] Core Views - Anta Sports' main brands (Anta and FILA) showed steady growth, while other brands continued to experience high growth [1] - Anta brand achieved high single-digit growth in 2024, driven by online sales and new business formats [2] - FILA brand returned to high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with its trendy sub-brand achieving high double-digit growth [3] - Other brands grew 40%-45% in 2024, with Q4 growth accelerating to 50%-55%, driven by strong performance in winter sports brands [4] - Anta Sports' core competitive advantages remain significant, with long-term growth potential in brand elevation, retail operations, and outdoor sports segments [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 11%/9%/8% in 2024/2025/2026 to RMB 695/757/820 billion [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 33%/-0.5%/+11% in 2024/2025/2026 to RMB 136/135/150 billion, excluding a one-time gain of RMB 15.8 billion from AmerSports' IPO [4] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.80/4.77/5.28 in 2024/2025/2026, with a P/E ratio of 14.5/14.5/13.1X [4][5] Brand Performance - Anta brand: Q4 2024 online sales grew nearly 20%, with overall high single-digit growth for the year [2] - FILA brand: Q4 2024 growth returned to high single digits, with trendy sub-brand achieving high double-digit growth [3] - Other brands: Descente grew 45%-50% and KOLON grew 60%-65% in Q4 2024 [4] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports is actively repurchasing shares, with over 21.55 million shares repurchased as of January 7, 2025 [5] - The company is focusing on brand elevation through product innovation, channel operations, and leveraging Olympic resources [5]

纺织服装 2025 年 01 月 09 日 安踏体育(2020.HK) 安踏品牌经营稳健，FILA品牌流水超预期 强烈推荐（维持） 股价：75.25 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.anta.com;ir.anta.com | | 大股东/持股 | 安踏国际集团控股有限公司/42.4% | | 实际控制人 | 丁世忠 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2823.22 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2823.22 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 2124.48 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 20.23 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.58 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】安踏体育（2020.HK）*半年报点评*中期 业绩再创历史新高*强烈推荐20240828 【平安证券】安踏体育（2020.HK）*季报点评*一季度 营运表现符合预期*强烈推荐20240418 证券分析师 王源 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524010001 WANGYUAN468@ping ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 安踏（2020.HK）：4Q24 流水好于市场 预期，2024 全年业绩确定性提升 1 月 8 日收市后，安踏公布了 4Q24 的运营数据，整体流水表现好于市 场预期。我们认为 Fila 4Q24 流水表现环比大幅改善有望缓解市场对 Fila 增速放缓的担忧，从而刺激股价短期回升。基于稳定的库销比以 及稳健的折扣水平，我们认为公司 2024 年全年的业绩已基本确定，且 基本符合我们之前的预测。尽管 2025 年依然充满挑战，但我们认为安 踏有望通过持续的门店升级以及产品的调整来实现品牌力的进一步提 升，从而录得高于同业的流水增长。维持安踏"买入"评级。 如何展望 2025 年？尽管中国运动服饰行业整体需求在 2025 年依然 面临压力，但安踏品牌依然是国产玩家中增长趋势最好的品牌之一。 这归功于公司管理层积极对线下门店进行改造和升级，同时对抖音等 新兴电商渠道进行布局，从而大幅提升了安踏的品牌力。Fila 短期增 速回暖（尤其是潮牌在 4Q24 的大幅反弹）令我们对 Fila 在 2025 年的 表现有更强的信心。Descente 及 Kolon 预计在 2025 年有望 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth across multiple brands in 2025, with a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to uncertainties in the consumption environment [4]. - Retail sales for all brands improved sequentially in Q4 2024, with FILA, Descente, and KOLON exceeding expectations [4][3]. - The company is focusing on differentiated store formats and expanding overseas, which is anticipated to drive growth [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - In Q4 2024, retail sales for Anta brand, FILA, and other brands saw year-on-year growth in high single digits to 50-55% [1][2]. - Anta brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 months, with retail discounts at approximately 72% [1]. - FILA brand's retail sales performance exceeded expectations, with discounts stable at 74-75% and a similar inventory turnover ratio [2]. Multi-Brand Strategy - The company is leveraging a multi-brand strategy, with Anta's offline stores evolving towards more refined service offerings for different consumer segments [3]. - The launch of popular products, such as the PG7 running shoes and Storm甲 jackets, has contributed to strong sales [3]. - Descente and KOLON brands achieved significant sales growth, with respective year-on-year increases of 45-50% and 60-65% in Q4 2024 [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates reduced by 2%/4%/4% respectively [4]. - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 4.78, 4.85, and 5.42 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 14, and 13 [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 69.39 billion RMB in 2024 to 76.38 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.1% [5][13].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 01 08 年 月 日 Fila 品牌：Q4 流水表现超预期，库存健康，折扣稳定。1）Q4 终端流水增速转 正，表现优异。2024Q4 Fila 品牌流水同比增长高单位数，对比 Q3 的低单位数下 降，改善明显，我们预计 Fila 大货增速同品牌整体保持一致，Fila 儿童和潮牌调 整顺利，其中潮牌增速预计在高双位数；从渠道层面来看，Fila 电商业务仍保持 双位数的优异增长态势。2）渠道库销比在 5 左右，折扣压力较小。我们预计截 至 2024Q4 末 Fila 品牌库销比在 5 左右，保持在健康合理水平，同时受益于流水 的稳健增长和健康的库存水平，我们预计 Q4 品牌折扣压力相对较小。我们判断 当前 Fila 整体处于健康运营阶段，产品力和渠道力仍在不断提升，中长期随着消 费环境的逐步向好，Fila 仍有机会实现高质量的增长表现。 其他品牌：流水高速增长，长期增长动能充足。2024Q4 其他品牌（包括迪桑特 和 Kolon Sport）流水同比增速为 50%~55%，2024 年在波动的消费环境下，迪 桑特和 Kolon Sport 仍实现了 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Anta Sports experienced a slight miss in revenue expectations due to unfavorable conditions in Q3, but there are expectations for sales improvement in Q4 [1][3] - The company is recognized as a leading multi-brand sportswear player in China, with ongoing improvements in store operations, product positioning, and brand strategy [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2022 was 53.651 billion RMB, with projections of 62.356 billion RMB for 2023, 68.637 billion RMB for 2024, 75.773 billion RMB for 2025, and 83.703 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 8.76%, 16.23%, 10.07%, 10.40%, and 10.47% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.590 billion RMB in 2022, expected to rise to 10.236 billion RMB in 2023, 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, 13.482 billion RMB in 2025, and 15.189 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of -1.68%, 34.86%, 31.62%, 0.07%, and 12.67% respectively [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand retail revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q3 2024, with both adult and children's segments showing similar growth [3] - FILA brand revenue declined in the low single digits year-on-year in Q3 2024, with expectations for better performance in bulk orders compared to children's and trendy brands [3] - Other brands saw a significant revenue increase of 45-50% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with Descente and KOLON growing by 35-40% and 65-70% respectively [3] Operational Insights - Anta brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of less than five months, with discounts remaining stable [3] - The company has adapted to the challenging consumer environment by innovating in channels and products, such as launching new store formats and cost-effective running shoes [3] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 13.472 billion RMB, 13.482 billion RMB, and 15.189 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 14, and 13 [3][12] - Key financial ratios for 2024E include an EPS of 4.76 RMB, ROE of 20.72%, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 27.71% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrates resilience during the downturn, with expectations for a bottoming out in sales during the National Day holiday period, which exceeded expectations [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates across its various brands, with a notable performance from the main brand and a healthy inventory level [2][3] - The report anticipates that e-commerce sales will outperform offline sales, continuing a trend of over 20% growth [2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 53,651 million - 2023A: 62,356 million (growth rate: 16%) - 2024E: 70,710 million (growth rate: 13%) - 2025E: 79,308 million (growth rate: 12%) - 2026E: 88,319 million (growth rate: 11%) [2][3] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 7,590 million - 2023A: 10,236 million (growth rate: 35%) - 2024E: 13,530 million (growth rate: 32%) - 2025E: 14,166 million (growth rate: 5%) - 2026E: 15,974 million (growth rate: 13%) [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 2.68 - 2023A: 3.62 - 2024E: 4.78 - 2025E: 5.01 - 2026E: 5.65 [2][3] - **Cash Flow**: - 2023A: 6.94 - 2024E: 3.75 - 2025E: 4.67 - 2026E: 5.91 [2][3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 24% - 2024E: 23% - 2025E: 20% - 2026E: 18% [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - Anta Sports is focusing on multi-brand operations to cover segmented users and enhance domestic product capabilities, capitalizing on emerging sports trends [2] - The company is expected to continue improving its channel reform and customer targeting strategies, particularly through the Super Anta and Champion stores [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining stable discount levels and improving online sales channels [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - Anta Sports reported its Q3 2024 revenue performance, showing a year-on-year growth in Anta's revenue, while FILA experienced a decline. Other brands saw a growth of 45%-50%, but overall performance was slightly below expectations for both Anta and FILA [4]. - The online growth for Anta is stronger, with expectations that e-commerce will outperform offline sales. The core areas and new store formats are performing well, while street shops are relatively weak. The Olympic Games in August are expected to boost retail performance, although September may see a slowdown due to the Mid-Autumn Festival timing [4]. - FILA's short-term revenue is under pressure, particularly in the kids and fusion segments, which require adjustments. Despite a decline in various categories due to consumer downgrading, golf and tennis categories are expected to perform relatively well [4]. - Inventory levels are healthy, with Anta's inventory turnover expected to be around 4-5 months and FILA's close to 5 months. This positions the company well for Q4 [4]. - Looking ahead, Anta plans to open and renovate 300 stores during the National Day period, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth. Despite uncertainties in FILA's retail performance, effective cost control and discount management are anticipated to support stable annual growth [4]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Anta Sports is as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024E: 69,475 million (growth of 11.42%) - 2025E: 76,064 million (growth of 9.48%) - 2026E: 82,770 million (growth of 8.82%) [7]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024E: 13,319 million (growth of 30.12%) - 2025E: 13,638 million (growth of 2.39%) - 2026E: 15,070 million (growth of 10.50%) [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2024: 4.71 - 2025: 4.82 - 2026: 5.33 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 118, based on a 25x PE for 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q3 2024, with e-commerce continuing to show over 25% growth. The inventory remains healthy with a sell-through ratio below 5 [1]. - FILA experienced a low single-digit decline in Q3 2024, impacted by market saturation and weak demand, but is expected to stabilize in Q4 due to the e-commerce peak season [1]. - Other brands, particularly in outdoor sports, showed strong performance with growth rates of 45-50%, including significant increases for specific brands like Disante and Kolon [1]. - The overall performance in Q4 is anticipated to improve due to favorable consumption policies and the upcoming Double Eleven sales event [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 86,578 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.9% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) is expected to rise from RMB 10,236 million in 2023 to RMB 15,349 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023 [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from RMB 3.69 in 2023 to RMB 5.53 in 2026 [2][6]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese sportswear industry, expected to benefit from industry growth and consumer trends [1][3]. - The company has a diversified brand portfolio, with strategies tailored to different consumer segments, enhancing its market reach [1]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholder is Anta International Group Holdings Limited, holding 42.45% of the shares, followed by The DSZ Family Trust and others [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.54 for 2023, decreasing to 15.04 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][9]. - The projected dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.20% in 2023 to 2.61% in 2026 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin is expected to improve from 62.6% in 2023 to 63.3% in 2026, indicating better cost management and pricing power [2][9]. - Inventory turnover days are projected to stabilize around 123 days, reflecting efficient inventory management practices [9]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to fluctuate, with a significant drop anticipated in 2024, followed by recovery in subsequent years [8]. - The cash balance is projected to increase from RMB 15,228 million in 2023 to RMB 24,833 million by 2026, indicating a strengthening liquidity position [8].