Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a projected PE of 13, 12, and 12 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the Hang Seng Index [5][7]. Core Insights - In 2024, China Feihe achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.570 billion yuan, up 5.31% [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.1632 HKD per share, totaling approximately 2.72 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of about 76.19% [1]. - The infant formula segment showed steady recovery with revenues of 19.062 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.63% year-on-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Offline and online revenues for 2024 were 15.997 billion yuan and 4.751 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.89% and 19.25% [2]. - The company reported revenues from its infant formula business in mainland China, the United States, and Canada of 20.546 billion yuan, 164 million yuan, and 39 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 6.52%, -20.61%, and 1.90% [2]. Production Capacity and Margins - By the end of 2024, the company's production capacity increased to over 365,000 tons, marking an annual growth of over 11.62% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 66.34%, up 1.51 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 15% decrease in raw milk prices and product mix upgrades [2][3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 17.21%, a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced government subsidies and increased minority interest losses [3]. - Management expenses decreased, with the management expense ratio at 8.10%, down 0.92 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Outlook - The infant formula market is expected to stabilize gradually, supported by newborn support measures, with China Feihe positioned as a leading player due to its strong R&D capabilities and brand recognition [4]. - The high-end infant formula segment is anticipated to drive continued growth, supported by rising disposable income and demand for premium products [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a target price of HKD 6.65, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current price of HKD 5.87 [3][6]. Core Views - China Feihe's net profit for 2H24 fell short of market expectations due to short-term inventory clearance in functional nutrition products, including adult milk powder, which affected overall gross margin performance. However, the infant formula business showed revenue growth in line with expectations, and profit margins remained robust. Management is confident that revenue growth in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, with a slight increase in gross margin expected year-on-year [1][6]. - As a leader in the infant formula market, China Feihe is expected to continue driving industry consolidation. The company is actively investing in brand marketing and product technology development to enhance brand strength and meet consumer demands with higher-end products [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 19,532 million, with a year-on-year decline of 8.3%. In 2024, revenue is expected to increase by 6.2% to RMB 20,749 million, and further growth is projected for 2025 with an estimated revenue of RMB 21,817 million, reflecting a 5.1% increase [8][10]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 3,390 million, down 31.4% year-on-year, but is expected to recover with a 5.3% increase in 2024 to RMB 3,570 million and a further 10.5% increase in 2025 to RMB 3,944 million [8][10]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end product offerings, with ultra-high-end products seeing a revenue increase of 17% in 2024, accounting for 69% of total revenue. The management anticipates continued growth in this segment, particularly for the Zhuorui brand, which has become the largest revenue contributor [6][11]. - A RMB 12 billion maternity subsidy plan is set to launch in April 2025, expected to have a limited negative impact on overall profit margins due to its structure and the company's marketing adjustments [6][11]. Dividend Policy - China Feihe plans to increase its dividend payout, with a projected dividend of HKD 0.3264 per share for 2024, raising the payout ratio to 76.1%. The management aims for a 10% annual increase in absolute dividend amounts over the next two years, assuming no major acquisitions [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a target price of HKD 6.65, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current price of HKD 5.87 [3][6]. Core Insights - China Feihe's net profit for 2H24 fell short of market expectations due to short-term inventory clearance in functional nutrition products, including adult milk powder, which affected overall gross margin performance. However, the infant formula business showed revenue growth in line with expectations, and profit margins remained robust. Management is confident that revenue growth in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, with a slight increase in gross margin expected year-on-year [1][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the infant formula market, driving industry consolidation trends. The report suggests that Feihe will continue to capture market share through increased brand investment and product innovation [1][6]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2023 was reported at RMB 19,532 million, with a projected increase to RMB 20,749 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%. The forecast for 2025 anticipates revenue of RMB 21,817 million, representing a growth of 5.1% [8][11]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 3,390 million, with expectations of growth to RMB 3,570 million in 2024 and RMB 3,944 million in 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 10.5%, respectively [8][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 64.8% in 2023 to 66.3% in 2024, with further stability projected for 2025 [8][11]. Market Position and Strategy - China Feihe is focusing on high-end product offerings, with ultra-high-end products expected to see a revenue increase of 17% in 2024, contributing to 69% of total revenue. The company plans to launch even higher-end products in 2H25 [6][11]. - The management has announced a RMB 12 billion maternity subsidy plan, which is expected to have a limited negative impact on profit margins, as the actual costs will be lower than the total subsidy amount [6][11]. Dividend Policy - The company has increased its dividend payout, with a projected dividend of HKD 0.3264 per share for 2024, raising the payout ratio to 76.1%. Management aims for a 10% annual increase in absolute dividend amounts over the next two years [6][11].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 方向明确，节奏待提 目标价：7.5 港元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年报。24 年实现主营收入 207.49 亿元，同比+6.23%，净利润 36.54 亿元，同比+11.06%，归母净利润 35.7 亿元，同比+5.31%。其中，24H2 实现主营收入 106.54 亿元，同比+8.74%，净利润 17.43 亿元，同比+4.25%， 归母净利润 16.95 亿元，同比+0.06%。同时，公司宣布派发每股 0.1632 港元 股息，结合中期股息年度累计每股派发 0.3264 港元股息，合计发放红利人民 币 27.2 亿元，分红率约 74%。 评论： 食品饮料 2025 年 04 月 01 日 当前价：5.87 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：董广阳 电话：021-20572598 邮箱：dongguang ...

2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 总股本(亿股) | 90.67 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 532.25 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 3.26/7.38 | | 近 3 月换手率(%)： | 21.16 | 公司研究 政府补助减少拖累 24H2 利润，开始实施全龄营养战略 ——中国飞鹤（6186.HK）2024 年年度业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价：5.87 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | --- | 股价相对走势 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/0 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 31 日 中国飞鹤 (06186) ——24 年婴配粉业务重回增长 25 年有望增势 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 19,532 | 20,749 | 21,751 | 22,713 | 23,630 | | 同比增长率（%） | -8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,390 | 3,570 | 3,862 | 4,024 | 4,191 | | 同比增长率（%） | -31% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 4% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.46 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 13% | | 市盈率 | 14.49 | 13.76 | 12.72 | 12.20 | 11.72 | | 市净 ...

产品结构改善，分红力度加大 消费品/食品饮料 飞鹤 2024 年收入、净利润分别同比+6.2%、11.1%，受益新生儿数量反弹，H2 收入增长加速，产品结构改善推动毛利率提升，但政府补助减少和所得税率提 升影响净利率表现。公司全年现金分红 27.2 亿元，分红比例提升至 76%，对应 股息率约 5%，安全边际充分。中期来看，公司业绩进入改善周期。市场份额稳 中有升，利润率持续修复，我们给予 25-26 年 EPS 预测为 0.44、0.49 元，当 前股价对应 25 年 14 倍 PE，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 ❑ 投资建议：高股息高现金价值股，业绩进入改善周期，维持"强烈推荐"评 级。飞鹤 24 年分红比例 76%，对应当前市值股息率约 5%，而且截止年末账 上货币资金和银行存款合计约 190 亿，安全边际充分。去年开始公司业绩进 入改善周期，中期来看改善趋势将会延续，婴幼儿奶粉行业从下滑过渡到平 稳甚至有望反弹，飞鹤持续投入消费者教育，市场份额稳中有升。利润端受 益促销减少和产品结构改善，25 年利润率有望继续恢复。我们给予 25-26 年 EPS 预测为 0.44、0.49 元，当前股价对应 25 年 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe's 2024 annual performance report indicates a revenue of 20.75 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 3.65 billion yuan, an 11% increase, driven by a structural recovery in the milk powder industry and increased consumer confidence in domestic products [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from infant formula products reached 19.06 billion yuan, growing by 6.6% compared to the previous year [1] - Other dairy products, including adult milk powder, liquid milk, and rice flour, generated revenue of 1.514 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.3% increase [1] - Revenue from nutritional supplements was 173 million yuan, marking a significant growth of 25.4% [1] Group 2: Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Feihe has maintained the top sales position in the infant formula market in China for six consecutive years and globally for four years [1] Group 3: International Expansion - In 2024, Feihe accelerated its international expansion, with a strategic partnership established between its Canadian subsidiary and Munchkin, a U.S. baby products company [1] - The Canadian infant formula production facility officially commenced operations in September of the previous year [1] - Revenue from mainland China was 20.55 billion yuan, while revenue from the U.S. and Canada was 160 million yuan and 38.51 million yuan, respectively, all showing varying degrees of growth [1] Group 4: Research and Innovation - Continuous R&D innovation is identified as a core driver of Feihe's steady growth, with collaborations with top research teams from institutions like Peking University and Harvard BCH [2] - In 2024, Feihe added 153 new domestic and international authorized patents, bringing the total to 659 [2] - The company received the TPM award, often referred to as the "Nobel Prize" in manufacturing [2] Group 5: Product Development - Feihe launched new products such as "Supernova Cheese" to meet personalized nutritional needs across the lifecycle [2] - The company introduced a new technology for extracting whey protein, marking the beginning of a new era in functional nutrition [2] - Feihe's chairman emphasized the commitment to ongoing innovation in areas such as breast milk research and brain development [2]

Financial Performance - The group's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 20,748.6 million, an increase of 6.2% compared to the previous year[2] - The group's gross profit for the same period was RMB 13,764.8 million, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-over-year[2] - The net profit for the year was RMB 3,654.1 million, which represents an 11.1% increase from the previous year[2] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both RMB 0.39, up from RMB 0.37 in 2023[2] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 3,570.1 million for the year, compared to RMB 3,444.0 million in 2023[5] - The group’s profit before tax for 2024 was RMB 3,390,009,000, compared to RMB 3,570,125,000 in 2023, showing a decrease of approximately 5%[39] - The total tax expense for the year was RMB 1,895,606,000, an increase from RMB 1,559,940,000 in 2023, representing an increase of about 21%[35] - The group operated 42 Vitamin World USA retail stores in the U.S. as of December 31, 2024, employing 199 people, generating RMB 172.9 million in revenue from nutritional supplements[50] - Profit before tax increased by 14.4% from RMB 4,850.3 million in 2023 to RMB 5,549.7 million in 2024[66] - Net profit increased by 11.1% from RMB 3,290.4 million in 2023 to RMB 3,654.1 million in 2024[68] Dividends - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.1632 per share, compared to HKD 0.1484 per share in 2023, totaling approximately HKD 1,479,775,000 (approximately RMB 1,351,924,000) for the interim dividend[2] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.1632 per share for 2024, up from HKD 0.1349 per share in 2023, which corresponds to approximately RMB 1.35 billion compared to RMB 1.14 billion in the previous year[36] - The dividend policy aims to distribute no less than 30% of the net profit for each fiscal year, depending on future investment plans[94] - The annual general meeting will be held on May 29, 2025, to discuss the proposed final dividend for 2024[95] - To qualify for the 2024 final dividend, all share transfer documents must be submitted by June 3, 2025[97] - The final dividend is expected to be paid to shareholders listed on June 5, 2025[97] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets less current liabilities amounted to RMB 29,134.7 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 28,812.4 million in 2023[6] - The company's non-current assets totaled RMB 13,477.1 million, slightly down from RMB 13,640.4 million in the previous year[6] - The company's cash and cash equivalents were RMB 9,321.2 million, down from RMB 10,440.9 million in 2023[6] - The total assets of the company as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 35,725,706, compared to RMB 36,194,678 in 2023, indicating a slight decrease[21] - The total liabilities for the year ended December 31, 2024, were RMB 8,318,321, a decrease from RMB 9,860,332 in 2023[21] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from infant formula products reached RMB 19,061.6 million, accounting for 91.9% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%[56] - Revenue from the mainland China market increased to RMB 20,545,954 in 2024, up from RMB 19,287,735 in 2023, representing a growth of 6.5%[23] - Sales to external customers in the raw milk segment amounted to RMB 154,290, while the dairy products and nutritional supplements segment generated RMB 20,594,260, contributing to a total of RMB 20,748,550[21] - The total revenue from e-commerce for 2024 was RMB 69,813,000, significantly up from RMB 21,659,000 in 2023, marking an increase of about 223%[32] Expenses - The cost of goods sold for 2024 was RMB 6,983,747,000, compared to RMB 6,868,850,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of about 1.7%[33] - Sales and distribution expenses increased by 7.0% to RMB 7,181.2 million, mainly due to higher advertising costs and online sales platform expenses[62] - Administrative expenses decreased by 4.6% to RMB 1,681.3 million, mainly due to reduced share-based payment expenses[63] - Other income and net gains decreased by 11.7% from RMB 1,659.5 million in 2023 to RMB 1,465.1 million in 2024, primarily due to reduced government subsidies[61] Market and Consumer Insights - The average disposable income in China reached RMB 41,314 in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2019 to 2024, enhancing consumer purchasing power[43] - The number of newborns in China is projected to increase from approximately 9.5 million in 2024 due to supportive measures, despite a decline from 10.48‰ in 2019 to 6.77‰ in 2024[43] - The demand for high-end infant formula products is anticipated to grow, supported by rising disposable income and health awareness among consumers[43] - Urbanization and rising disposable income levels are expected to enhance consumer purchasing power, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural areas[43] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company emphasizes its commitment to corporate governance and has adopted the corporate governance code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange[86] - The company has established an audit committee to oversee financial reporting and risk management, consisting of three members[91] - The company has confirmed compliance with the standards for securities trading by its directors during the reporting period[88] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue expanding its overseas market presence, enhancing the global influence of the Feihe brand, and aims to position itself as a "global Feihe"[84] - The company is focusing on innovation in areas such as breast milk research, brain development research, and protein technology, aiming for breakthroughs in comprehensive nutrition[84] - The group is leveraging e-commerce platforms and its own website to directly sell products, targeting the younger generation of consumers[48] - The group aims to achieve an optimal balance of key components in infant formula by closely simulating the composition of breast milk from Chinese mothers[45]

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 经营反转周期正展开 目标价：7.5 港元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2023 | 2024E | | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 19,532 | 21,020 | | 22,801 | 24,325 | | YoY | -8.3% | 7.6% | | 8.5% | 6.7% | | 归母净利润（百万 元） | 3,390 | 3,875 | | 4,481 | 4,976 | | YoY | -31.4% | 14.3% | | 15.7% | 11.0% | | 每股盈利（元） | 0.37 | 0.43 | | 0.49 | 0.55 | | 市盈率（倍） | 14.6 | 12.8 | | 11.1 | 10.0 | | 市净率（倍） | 2.0 | 1.9 | | 1.7 | 1.6 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证券预测 | 注：股价为 2025 | 年 3 | ...