Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the policies of the Trump administration will significantly impact global markets this year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - CITIC Securities believes one of the core goals of the Trump administration is to lower long-term interest rates through changes in Federal Reserve personnel and various initiatives, which would boost the traditional economy and assist in midterm elections [1] - If successful, this could positively influence global stock markets and commodities [1] Group 2: Foreign Policy and Asset Impact - The administration's foreign policy actions are primarily focused on domestic issues and voter demands, which may only have a transient impact on major asset classes [1] - The extent of the fiscal deficit expansion remains uncertain, which could benefit gold and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 3: Midterm Elections - The results of the midterm elections are deemed very important; despite Trump's efforts to gain an advantage, a Republican loss could negatively impact risk assets, excluding U.S. Treasuries, in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the policies of the Trump administration will significantly impact global markets this year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - CITIC Securities believes one of the core goals of the Trump administration is to lower long-term interest rates through changes in Federal Reserve personnel and various initiatives, which would boost the traditional economy and assist in midterm elections [1] - If successful, this could positively influence global stock markets and commodities [1] Group 2: Foreign Policy and Asset Impact - The administration's foreign policy actions are primarily focused on domestic issues and voter demands, which may only have a transient impact on major asset classes [1] - The extent of fiscal deficit expansion remains uncertain, which could benefit gold and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 3: Midterm Elections - The results of the midterm elections are deemed very important; despite efforts by Trump to secure an advantage, a Republican loss could negatively impact risk assets, excluding U.S. Treasuries, in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the private equity market will see significant performance improvements due to a better equity market environment in 2025, with a projected industry scale rising to approximately 7.2 trillion yuan [1] - The leading positions among fund managers remain stable, with a notable increase in the share of quantitative products compared to the beginning of the year [1] - The stock strategy is expected to outperform in a fluctuating market in 2025, with products linked to high market correlation, macro strategies, multi-strategies, and FoF/MoM also yielding substantial returns [1] Group 2 - The current A-share market is active, and private equity managers exhibit strong confidence in the market, with increased consensus among investors [1] - Attention is drawn to the accelerated short-term rotations in high-risk and low-risk assets, while the commodity market experiences increased volatility, making subjective CTA products more valuable due to their flexibility [1] - Multi-asset strategies are highlighted for their ability to balance returns across different markets, possessing potential for both Alpha and Beta gains [1]

中信证券研报指出，目前人形机器人处于技术验证期，但商业化落地时间相比于新能源汽车将缩短；建 议重点关注机器人产业中价值最厚、格局最清、确定性最高环节，因为业绩弹性最大，同时我们认为龙 头在产业趋势投资阶段最为核心，因此我们建议积极寻找机器人细分环节中非标、技术、成本、扩产壁 垒高的龙头企业，因为这类企业能够穿越产业周期。整体上，我们认为机器人公司本身（软硬一体的平 台型企业）、高算力SOC芯片（大脑端侧驱动）、灵巧手（软硬件一体的小机器人）、执行器、精密传 感器（软硬件一体）等环节属于人形机器人产业高价值、高壁垒环节。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese bond market has seen a deepening of its opening process in 2025, with policy benefits continuously providing more convenience for foreign capital to enter the market [2][3] - Despite short-term fluctuations in foreign investment due to various factors, the long-term trend of foreign capital allocation in RMB bonds remains unchanged [5][6] Policy and Market Developments - In 2025, significant breakthroughs were achieved in the mechanisms and scope of China's bond market opening, providing better institutional guarantees for foreign participation [3] - Policies have been implemented to lower entry barriers for foreign investors and enhance operational convenience, including support for foreign institutions to engage in bond repurchase transactions [3] - The issuance mechanism for green panda bonds has been optimized, and the scope of the Bond Connect "southbound" channel has been expanded, further facilitating foreign access to the market [3] Foreign Investment Trends - In 2025, the Bond Connect "northbound" channel recorded a total transaction volume of 9.7 trillion RMB, with policy financial bonds and government bonds being the most actively traded [4] - As of December 2025, foreign institutions held 3.46 trillion RMB in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.0% of the total custody volume [4] - The number of foreign institutional participants reached 1,189, with various channels being utilized for market entry [4] Market Dynamics and Challenges - Foreign investment in RMB bonds has shown short-term volatility due to factors such as the China-US interest rate differential and exchange rate fluctuations [5] - The deep inversion of the China-US interest rate spread has weakened the relative attractiveness of RMB bonds, particularly affecting foreign investment in government bonds [5] - The performance of the domestic equity market has attracted some foreign capital away from the bond market, leading to a temporary decrease in demand for RMB bonds [5] Long-term Outlook - Industry experts believe that the fluctuations in foreign investment are primarily due to short-term arbitrage rather than a systemic withdrawal, indicating the long-term attractiveness of the Chinese bond market [6] - As the US enters a rate-cutting cycle and the demand for diversified asset allocation increases, the attractiveness of Chinese bonds is expected to rise [7] - The trend of foreign capital steadily increasing its allocation to RMB bonds is supported by the low correlation of the Chinese bond market with major global fixed-income assets [7][8] Future Projections - The trend of foreign capital increasing its holdings of RMB bonds is expected to continue into 2026, with a shift towards diversified products such as credit bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) [9] - The core strategy for foreign investment in 2026 will likely focus on long-duration government bonds, with expectations of improved yield attractiveness as the interest rate differential normalizes [10] - Overall, the continued improvement of the bond market's opening mechanisms is anticipated to lower entry barriers for foreign capital, with projections indicating that foreign bond holdings may exceed 4 trillion RMB by 2026 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by active capital markets and robust growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Major Securities Firms - 21 listed securities firms have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, showing overall positive growth in net profits [2]. - CITIC Securities is projected to achieve over 30 billion yuan in net profit, with a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan, marking a 28.75% year-on-year increase [2]. - Guotai Junan expects a net profit between 27.53 billion yuan and 28.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111% to 115% [2]. - Other notable firms include招商证券 with a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan (up 18.43%), and申万宏源 with a projected net profit of 9.1 billion to 10.1 billion yuan (up 74.64% to 93.83%) [2]. Group 2: Performance of Small and Medium-sized Securities Firms - Smaller firms like国联民生 anticipate a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, representing a significant year-on-year growth of approximately 406% [3]. -天风证券 expects to turn a profit with a net profit forecast of 12.5 million to 18.5 million yuan [3]. - Other small firms such as长江证券 and中原证券 are also expected to see net profit increases exceeding 100% and 50%, respectively [3]. Group 3: Drivers of Growth - The growth in performance is attributed to the active capital market, with wealth management, proprietary trading, and asset management businesses benefiting significantly [3]. - Guotai Haitong noted a substantial increase in income from wealth management and institutional trading due to the rising activity in the domestic capital market [3]. - CITIC Securities reported rapid growth across brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading revenues [3]. Group 4: Investment Value of the Sector - The non-bank financial sector has seen a decline of 1.59% as of January 30, but analysts believe that the valuation of securities firms is at a historically low level, enhancing their investment appeal [4]. - The sector is entering a golden window for valuation and performance recovery, driven by favorable policies and an improving market environment [5]. - Analysts suggest focusing on three investment themes: strong comprehensive capabilities of leading firms, firms with significant performance elasticity, and those with strong international business competitiveness [5].

● 本报记者 林倩 随着资本市场持续活跃，上市券商2025年业绩表现备受关注。Wind数据显示，截至1月30日中国证券报 记者发稿时，有21家上市券商披露了2025年业绩预告或业绩快报。 头部券商中信证券、国泰君安等继续巩固市场领先地位，中信证券2025年归母净利润超300亿元，国泰 海通预计2025年归母净利润同比增速超100%。中小券商业绩弹性更大，国联民生预计2025年净利润同 比增速超400%。经纪业务、自营业务等成为上述上市券商2025年业绩增长的核心驱动力。 业内人士表示，2025年A股市场活跃，券商业绩高景气度延续，建议关注业绩向好带来的券商板块投资 机会。 中小券商净利润规模虽小，但业绩弹性更大。国联民生预计2025年度实现归母净利润20.08亿元，同比 增长约406%。国联民生也在公告中表示，报告期内公司完成通过发行A股股份的方式收购民生证券控 制权，并将其纳入财务报表合并范围。天风证券则预计在2025年实现归母净利润1.25亿元到1.85亿元， 将实现扭亏为盈。 此外，长江证券预计2025年净利润增幅超过100%；中原证券、红塔证券、华西证券、东北证券预计 2025年净利润增幅也超过50% ...

Core Insights - The evaluation results for the 2025 annual performance quality of securities companies were released by the Beijing Stock Exchange and the National Equities Exchange and Quotations, assessing 115 firms on their professional capabilities, compliance levels, and business operations [1] Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The majority of securities companies scored above the baseline score of 100, indicating a positive accumulation in industry performance quality [1] - Guotai Junan ranked first with a total score of 145.04, followed by Huatai Securities (143.41), China Merchants Securities (140.49), Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (136.43), and CITIC Securities (135.49), showcasing strong performance in professional quality [1] Group 2: Distribution of Scores - The score distribution shows a "large middle, small ends" pattern, with a few top-tier firms leading the industry while the majority fall into the second and third tiers, indicating overall compliance and notable business highlights [1] - Some firms scored in the fourth tier due to low professional scores or high compliance deductions, suggesting a need for improvement in specific business areas or risk management capabilities [1] Group 3: Business Structure and Specialization - The evaluation system detailed scores for various sub-items within the Beijing Stock Exchange and National Equities Exchange, revealing differences in business structures among firms [2] - Certain firms, like Huatai Securities and Dongfang Securities, achieved high scores through deep engagement in Beijing Stock Exchange business, particularly in sponsorship and mergers and acquisitions [2] - Other firms, such as Kaiyuan Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan, excelled in the National Equities Exchange business, especially in recommending listings and ongoing supervision, demonstrating their service capabilities for new three-board enterprises [2] Group 4: Contribution of Brokerage and Research - Brokerage and research services, which connect investors with the market, contributed significantly to the professional quality scores of firms like Galaxy Securities and Guotai Junan [2]

据贵州茅台官微消息，1月30日，茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华与到访的中信证券党委书记、董事长 张佑君在茅台会议中心举行座谈，双方就进一步深化合作进行了沟通交流。陈华表示，希望双方进一步 深化合作，借助中信证券的资源优势，以市场化投资运作方式，在培育发展战略性新兴产业和未来产业 方面积极探索布局，培育新的经济增长点，不断增强企业抗周期能力，努力为贵州经济发展作出更大贡 献。 ...

Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a reduction in workforce and a shift towards a more professional and service-oriented model [3][10]. Workforce Changes - By the end of 2025, the total number of employees in the securities industry is projected to decrease by 5,897, bringing the total to 320,000, marking three consecutive years of decline since 2023 [13]. - The number of employees in general securities business and securities brokers has significantly decreased, with both categories losing over 5,000 employees [10]. - Conversely, the number of analysts increased by 336, and investment advisors saw a net increase of 5,754, indicating a shift towards specialized roles [10][12]. Analyst Growth - The analyst workforce has seen a notable increase, surpassing 6,000 by 2025, doubling from around 3,000 before 2022 [12]. - Despite pressures in other business lines, competition for research talent among brokerages has intensified, with several prominent analysts switching firms [12]. - The top ten firms with the largest increases in analyst numbers include Guotai Junan Securities, CITIC Securities, and Founder Securities, with Guotai Junan adding 43 analysts [14]. Decline in Sponsoring Representatives - The number of sponsoring representatives has decreased for the first time in eight years, totaling 8,526 by the end of 2025, down by 180 from the previous year [15]. - This decline is attributed to a slowdown in equity financing and stricter regulatory requirements, leading to a "project drought" in the market [15].