Core Viewpoint - The refining and chemical industry in China is expected to experience a significant turnaround by the second half of 2025, driven by policy changes and the consolidation of advanced capacities [1]. Group 1: Industry Policy and Capacity Allocation - In late November, China issued early crude oil import quotas for 2026, with major private refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical receiving substantial allocations, indicating a shift towards advanced capacities [1]. - The early allocation of quotas in 2026 was concentrated among a few leading companies, contrasting with the previous year's distribution among numerous smaller enterprises, highlighting a trend towards industry consolidation [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated measures to prevent excessive competition in the PTA and bottle-grade polyester slice industries, signaling a favorable environment for leading firms while challenging smaller players [2]. Group 2: Industry Overcapacity and Structural Changes - The PTA industry has shifted from meeting domestic demand to facing overcapacity, prompting regulatory bodies to implement measures to address this issue, including energy consumption limits for refining and chemical processes [3]. - The implementation of energy consumption limits is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated and smaller production capacities from the market, thereby improving the overall industry structure [3]. - The recent policies aim to guide the planning and layout of major petrochemical projects, controlling new refining capacities and preventing overcapacity risks in related sectors [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Context - The global economic downturn since 2022 has impacted demand in the polyester industry, which is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, leading to a phase of inventory competition [2]. - The refining industry is witnessing a clear pyramid structure, where the elimination of outdated capacities can be targeted effectively, contrasting with slower clearing processes in other sectors like solar and lithium [5]. - The geopolitical landscape has also influenced energy storage demands, reducing cost pressures on the refining industry and enhancing expectations for a market turnaround [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends and Future Outlook - As of mid-2025, the construction projects in the basic chemical sector have seen a decline in investment, indicating a potential end to the capital expenditure cycle and a gradual recovery in supply dynamics [7]. - The overall profit levels in the chemical industry remain low, prompting companies to seek improvements in competitive dynamics to achieve normal profitability levels amid the ongoing "anti-involution" trend [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's primary plastic production, indicating a significant increase in both monthly and cumulative production figures for 2025, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry [1] Industry Summary - In September 2025, China's primary plastic production reached 12.67 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [1] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of primary plastics in China totaled 109.703 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 11.6% [1] - The data indicates a robust growth trend in the primary plastic sector, which is expected to continue in the coming years [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the plastic industry include Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, Sinopec, China National Petroleum, Huajin Co., Tongkun Co., Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and ST Hongda [1] - These companies are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the plastic production market as indicated by the statistical data [1]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.68% on December 1, with Runbei Hangke leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% [1] Stock Performance - Runbei Hangke (001316) closed at 37.79, up 6.00% with a trading volume of 82,100 shares and a transaction value of 304 million yuan [1] - Hengtong Co. (603223) closed at 10.75, up 4.37% with a trading volume of 110,800 shares [1] - ST Shenhua (000698) closed at 3.85, up 2.39% with a trading volume of 110,900 shares and a transaction value of 42.84 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Baomo Co. (002476) up 2.22%, China Petroleum (601857) up 2.15%, and Taishan Petroleum (000554) up 2.09% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 42.96 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 128 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 171 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Petroleum (601857) had a net inflow of 42.51 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 38.03 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Baomo Co. (002476) saw a net inflow of 30.59 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 28.66 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Hengtong Co. (600346) had a net inflow of 5.48 million yuan from institutional investors and a significant net inflow of 73.40 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Insights - The global chemical competition landscape is being reshaped, with European and Japanese companies facing capacity exits due to high energy costs and environmental pressures, while Chinese companies are rapidly gaining market share due to significant cost advantages [1][15]. - The EU chemical capacity utilization rate has decreased from 75.6% in Q2 2025 to 74.6% in Q3 2025, significantly below the long-term average of 81.3% [2][31]. - China's chemical industry is characterized by high capital investment and R&D, leading to a strong cost advantage and enhanced global competitiveness [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Europe: Dual Dilemma of High Energy Costs and Environmental Pressure - European chemical companies are heavily reliant on natural gas, with over 40% of raw materials sourced from it, leading to increased production costs [20]. - The average wholesale electricity price in the EU rose by 30% year-on-year to $90 per megawatt-hour in H1 2025, expected to be twice that of the US and 1.5 times that of China [2][20]. - The EU's carbon emissions trading system (ETS) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are tightening regulations, further squeezing the competitiveness of European chemical products [23][29]. 2. China: Scale Effects and Cost Advantages of Super Factories - China leads globally in chemical capital expenditure and R&D, accounting for 47% and 32% of the global total, respectively [36][38]. - The production capacity of ethylene in China has doubled from 26.69 million tons in 2019 to 54.49 million tons in 2024, with import dependency decreasing from 8.8% to 5.0% [10]. - Major Chinese companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to further reduce costs through technological upgrades and capacity expansions, enhancing their competitive edge [9][12]. 3. Domestic Chemical Core Assets Exhibit Strong Competitive Strength - The report highlights the increasing global influence of Chinese chemical companies, which are leveraging cost, scale, and technological advantages to expand their market presence [12]. - Key players in the industry include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry consolidation and optimization [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the petrochemical industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [16]. Core Insights - Natural gas demand is expected to recover in 2026 after a significant slowdown in 2025, with global demand growth projected at 2% [6][10]. - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with improved outlooks for companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [16]. - Oil prices are expected to stabilize, with a neutral outlook for 2026, while companies like China Petroleum and CNOOC are recommended for their high dividend yields [16]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - Global natural gas demand growth for 2025 is projected at only 0.5%, primarily driven by Europe, while Asian demand remains flat [6]. - In 2026, demand growth is expected to recover to 2%, with Asia-Pacific leading the increase at around 5% [6][10]. - Current low inventory levels in Europe and Japan are anticipated to support relatively strong gas prices during the heating season [8]. Oil Market - Brent crude oil prices have shown a slight increase, closing at $63.20 per barrel, while WTI prices reached $58.55 per barrel [20]. - The report notes a decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the U.S., indicating a potential slowdown in production growth [29]. - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 790,000 barrels per day in 2025, with the U.S., China, and Nigeria being the main contributors [42]. Petrochemical Sector - The downstream polyester sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with recommendations for companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [16]. - The report indicates that the refining sector is seeing improved margins, with domestic refining margins increasing by 244 RMB/ton month-on-month [50]. - Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia have stabilized, while the price spread between ethylene and naphtha has increased, indicating favorable conditions for ethylene production [59][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [3]. Core Insights - Natural gas demand is expected to recover, with short-term price stability anticipated due to low inventory levels during the heating season of 2025-2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global natural gas demand growth of 2% in 2026, with Asia-Pacific demand potentially reaching 5% [5][6][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a mixed trend, with oil prices showing a slight increase while drilling day rates for self-elevating platforms are rising. Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.20 per barrel, reflecting a 1.02% increase week-on-week [5][23]. - The refining sector is seeing a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are increasing. The Singapore refining margin for major products dropped to $19.61 per barrel, a decrease of $7.03 from the previous week [5][60]. - The polyester sector is witnessing a mixed performance, with PTA profitability rising while polyester filament profitability is declining. The PTA price in East China averaged 4625 RMB per ton, down 0.04% week-on-week [5][57]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.20 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.02%. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose to 427 million barrels, up 2.78 million barrels from the previous week [5][23][25]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 544, down 10 rigs week-on-week and 38 rigs year-on-year [34][37]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was reported at $19.61 per barrel, down $7.03 from the previous week. The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $17.96 per barrel, slightly up from the previous week [5][60][65]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price in Asia was reported at $827.37 per ton, down 0.22% week-on-week. The PTA-PX spread increased to 266.40 USD/ton, up 7.05 USD/ton from the previous week [5][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in profitability [5][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a shift in supply chain dynamics due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in semiconductor materials, leading to accelerated domestic replacements [5][6] - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with significant price increases noted [8][9] - The report highlights a potential upturn in the chemical industry as supply-side constraints and rising demand could enhance profitability and dividend yields for leading companies [6][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a 24.0% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 16.9% [3] Key Opportunities - Focus on low-cost expansion opportunities in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as sectors like tire manufacturing and pesticide formulations [6][9] - Emphasis on sectors with improving market conditions, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and polyester filament [9][10] Price Trends - Recent price increases for key products include chromium oxide green at 35,500 CNY/ton and metallic chromium at 84,000 CNY/ton, both up by 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous week [8][16] - The report notes a tightening supply for isooctanol, with prices rising due to increased demand and production disruptions [13] Company Focus - The report identifies several key companies for investment, including Dongfang Shenghong, Hubei Yihua, and Wanhua Chemical, with positive earnings forecasts and attractive price-to-earnings ratios [28]

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Group donated 30 million HKD to support residents affected by the fire in Tai Po Hongfu Garden, Hong Kong [1] Company Overview - Hengli Group is an international enterprise developing through a full industrial chain model in refining, petrochemicals, polyester new materials, and textiles [1] - The group owns one of the largest PTA plants globally and is among the largest functional fiber production bases and weaving enterprises [1] - Hengli Group is ranked 81st in the Global Fortune 500, 21st in China's Top 500 Enterprises, 3rd in China's Top 500 Private Enterprises, and 3rd in China's Top 500 Manufacturing Enterprises for 2024 [1] Social Responsibility - Hengli Group actively fulfills its social responsibilities and supports charitable causes, assisting vulnerable groups [1] - Since its establishment, the company has donated a total of 2 billion RMB across various charitable initiatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hengli Petrochemical, acknowledges the significant increase in sulfur prices this year and discusses its potential impact on the company's profitability and production capacity [2]. Group 1: Company Production and Capacity - Sulfur is a byproduct extracted from crude oil by Hengli Refining, with an annual production capacity of approximately 600,000 tons [2]. - The increase in sulfur production capacity is contingent upon raising crude oil processing volumes or increasing the proportion of high-sulfur crude oil processed [2]. - Currently, the sulfur production is expected to remain stable, as any increase in output will need to consider maximizing overall efficiency [2]. Group 2: Impact of Sulfur Price Increase - The rise in sulfur prices is anticipated to positively contribute to the company's financial performance [2].

[行业table专题报告 _reportdate ] 2025 年 11 月 28 日 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第1页 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ➢ 炼化一体化是将石油炼制与化工生产通过工艺耦合、原料互供、能量 共享实现深度融合的产业模式，打破了传统炼油与化工独立运营的界 限，通过全链条资源优化配置，实现原油向成品油与高附加值化工品 的高效转化。这种模式并非简单的环节叠加，而是涵盖物质流、能量 流、信息流的系统性重构，例如将炼油产生的石脑油直接供给烯烃或 芳烃装置作为原料，减少中间储运成本。 ➢ 据《2024 年国内外油气行业发展报告》，"十五五"期间炼化行业将 加速兼并整合，以集群化、一体化、园区化的规模优势应对外部风 险。2030 年，全国炼厂平均规模达到 535 万吨/年，较 2024 年水平提 高 53 万吨/年；国内千万吨级炼厂占比达 60.7%，较 2024 年提高 4.7 个百分点；大连长兴岛、江苏连云港、浙江宁波、福建古雷、广东惠 州大亚湾等石化基地基本建成。 ➢ 炼化一体化的经济效益的提升来自规模效应、产品溢价与成本控制的 多重叠加。规模上，大型一体化 ...