Group 1 - The stock price of Shanshan Co., Ltd. (600884.SH) closed at 13.48 yuan, with a decline of 5.07% [1] - On October 28, 2021, Shanshan's stock price reached a historical peak of 44.30 yuan during intraday trading [2] - Research analysts from Ping An Securities maintained a "strongly recommended" rating for Shanshan Co., citing that the third-quarter report exceeded forecast limits and that performance continues to grow significantly [2] Group 2 - Analysts from Southwest Securities maintained a "buy" rating for Shanshan Co., highlighting the establishment of BASF Shanshan and the improvement in profitability across various business segments [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the securities sector experienced a decline of 2.21% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points. The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.38 times [1][2]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 38.46%, and its operating revenue reached 74.83 billion yuan, up 28.75% year-on-year. This performance is attributed to the overall upward trend in the domestic capital market and increased investor confidence [2][35]. - The report emphasizes that the growth drivers for the industry in 2025 will be diverse, with traditional businesses showing resilience and investment banking benefiting from a recovery in the equity financing market [2][6]. Summary by Sections Securities Weekly Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's performance is closely monitored, with traditional businesses like brokerage and proprietary trading showing high elasticity in growth due to increased market activity [2][9]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - The insurance sector saw a decline of 3.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points. China Life Insurance reported over 62.24 million claims in 2025, with a total claim amount exceeding 100.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [7][8]. - The overall insurance industry achieved a premium income of 576.29 billion yuan in November 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.56% [25][8]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that regulatory encouragement for industry consolidation is present, with mergers and acquisitions seen as effective means for brokerages to achieve external growth. This consolidation is expected to enhance industry competitiveness and resource allocation [3][6][30].

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of brokerages has released their performance forecasts for 2025, indicating a significant increase in profits, particularly for Guolian Minsheng Securities, which expects a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 406% [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Guolian Minsheng Securities announced a substantial profit increase due to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and growth in securities investment, brokerage, and wealth management [3]. - Citic Securities reported a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 28.75% and 38.46%, respectively [3]. - Southwest Securities projected a net profit of 1.028 to 1.098 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47% to 57% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - Despite the positive performance forecasts, brokerage stock prices have generally declined since the beginning of the year, with Citic Securities down 2.79% and Guolian Minsheng Securities down 2.85% [5]. - The overall performance of the brokerage sector, as indicated by the CSI All Share Securities Index, has decreased by 0.78% since January [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Performance - The growth in brokerage performance is primarily driven by market recovery and increased trading volumes, but it is also characterized as a cyclical recovery rather than a structural upgrade [4]. - Analysts suggest that the divergence between performance and stock prices is due to several factors, including profit-taking after strong previous gains, a shift in investment focus towards high-dividend, low-volatility assets, and a market expectation of slower profit growth in 2026 [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term stock price pressures, the brokerage sector is viewed as having long-term investment value, supported by a favorable policy environment and ongoing business recovery [7]. - Key indicators to monitor for assessing the sustainability of profits and valuation recovery include trading volumes, margin balances, net subscriptions in asset management, and the issuance rates of subordinate bonds by brokerages [8].

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of brokerages has released their performance forecasts for 2025, indicating a significant increase in profits, particularly for Guolian Minsheng Securities, which expects a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 406% [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Guolian Minsheng Securities announced a substantial profit increase due to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and growth in securities investment, brokerage, and wealth management [4]. - CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 28.75% and 38.46%, respectively [4]. - Southwest Securities projected a net profit between 1.028 billion yuan and 1.098 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 47% to 57% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Stock Price Trends - Despite positive earnings forecasts, brokerage stock prices have generally declined since the beginning of the year, with CITIC Securities down 2.79% and Guolian Minsheng Securities down 2.85% [7]. - The overall performance of the brokerage sector, as indicated by the CSI All Share Securities Index, has decreased by 0.78% since January [7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Price Divergence - The divergence between earnings and stock prices is attributed to four main factors: profit-taking after prior gains, a shift in investment focus towards high-dividend, low-volatility assets, lowered expectations for 2026 earnings growth, and increased margin requirements leading to a withdrawal of leveraged funds [8]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment remains favorable for long-term investment in brokerages, with a focus on the recovery of various business lines and supportive policies [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The brokerage industry is expected to experience an "L-shaped" recovery in 2026, with growth rates likely to slow but absolute profit levels remaining high [10]. - Key indicators to monitor for assessing profitability sustainability and valuation recovery include trading volume, asset management net subscriptions, and the issuance rates of brokerage subordinated bonds [10].

随着即将步入2026年1月下旬，首批券商2025年度业绩预告及快报已陆续出炉。1月18日，国联民生证券发布业绩预 增公告，预计2025年实现归母净利润20.08亿元，同比增长406%左右。除国联民生证券外，截至目前，还有中信证 券、西南证券等4家券商通过业绩快报、业绩预告等形式公布2025年经营情况，受证券投资等业务增长因素影响，券 商行业业绩向好迹象逐步显现。 但业绩向好的同时，券商开年以来的股价却表现不佳，引发市场广泛关注。在业内人士看来，业绩与股价的背离主 要受四方面因素影响。展望2026年，券商业绩大概率呈"增速回落但绝对额仍处高位"的L型修复。能否超预期，取决 于多重因素，投资者可重点跟踪"资管净申购"等四项高频指标，以判断盈利持续性与估值修复空间。 业绩普遍预喜 1月18日，国联民生证券发布业绩预增公告，预计2025年实现归母净利润20.08亿元，与上年同期相比增加16.11亿 元，同比增长406%左右，国联民生证券在公告中表示，业绩大幅增长一方面源于报告期内完成对民生证券的收购并 将其纳入合并报表范围，另一方面受证券投资、经纪及财富管理等业务的收入增长带动。 从已披露情况看，首批公布2025年经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy may continue to focus on structural measures, with "structural easing" as the priority direction, aiming to support the real economy and address structural weaknesses [2]. - The "stabilizer" role of banks remains effective, while the trading behavior of securities firms and other trading desks may develop new characteristics [2]. - Looking ahead to the bond market in Q1 2026, short - term interest rates are expected to maintain their advantage, and the trading logic of long - term interest rates may be further deepened. The performance of 10 - year treasury bonds may continue to be better than that of 30 - year treasury bonds [2][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Matters - On January 15, 2026, the central bank conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month (181 - day) buy - back reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The outstanding scale in January reached 6.8 trillion yuan [5]. - On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced a series of policies, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and measures to support the private economy, technological innovation, green transformation, and the real estate market [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From January 12 to 16, 2026, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a total investment of 951.5 billion yuan and a maturity of 138.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net investment of 812.8 billion yuan. From January 19 to 23, it is expected that 1.1015 trillion yuan of base money will mature and be withdrawn [11]. - In mid - January, the money market tightened first and then loosened. The central bank maintained its stance of protecting liquidity. The DR001 remained in the range of 1.3% - 1.4% throughout the week [13]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, last week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 553.58 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 254.88 billion yuan. The city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale and a net financing of 65.36 billion yuan [17][23]. - The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased overall last week [25][28]. 3. Bond Market Primary Market - At the beginning of 2026, the issuance rhythm of treasury bonds accelerated compared with the same period in 2025, mainly due to the increase in the issuance of discounted treasury bonds and short - term treasury bonds. As of January 16, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds was about 0.2 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 0.19 trillion yuan [31]. - The supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week. The net financing of treasury bonds was - 299.21 billion yuan, local bonds was 73.717 billion yuan, and policy - bank financial bonds was 51.1 billion yuan [38]. - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds reached 0.05 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [41]. Secondary Market - Last week, large - scale banks bought a large amount of treasury bonds within 10 years, supporting medium - and short - term interest rates. The overall performance of treasury bonds within 10 years was excellent. The yields of 30 - year treasury bonds increased [44]. - The average daily turnover rate of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) decreased, while that of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond (250215) increased [48]. - The average spread between the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) and the secondary active bond (250022) was 1.61BP, indicating a possible change in liquidity premium [51]. - The 10 - 1 - year and 30 - 1 - year treasury bond term spreads widened. The long - term and ultra - long - term local - treasury bond spreads narrowed [58][62]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading increased as the money market eased, with an average of about 8.62 trillion yuan [65]. - In the cash bond market, large - scale banks increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds, small - and medium - sized banks reduced their holdings of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds, insurance companies bought long - term treasury bonds and local bonds, securities firms sold long - term treasury bonds, and funds increased their holdings of policy - bank financial bonds within 5 years [65][72]. - The leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, and other institutions decreased in November 2025 [66]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and cathode copper futures increased, while those of wire rod futures, cement price index, and South China Glass Index decreased. The CCFI index increased, and the BDI index decreased [87]. - The wholesale prices of pork increased, and those of vegetables decreased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.01 [87]. 6. Market Outlook - In Q1 2026, short - term interest rates are expected to maintain their advantage, and the trading logic of long - term interest rates may be further deepened. The performance of 10 - year treasury bonds may continue to be better than that of 30 - year treasury bonds [2][89]. - Investors can consider gradually building positions in ultra - long - term bonds. Initially, they should hold medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy - bank financial bonds, and then adjust the strategy according to market conditions [90][91].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral, maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a comprehensive recovery in the securities industry, evidenced by significant profit growth from leading brokers such as CITIC Securities and Southwest Securities, with net profit increases of 38.46% and 47%-57% year-on-year respectively for 2025 [3][17] - The active capital market and supportive policies have contributed to the robust performance of the industry, with expectations for continued valuation recovery in the brokerage sector due to current liquidity benefits [3] Industry Fundamentals Tracking - As of January 16, 2026, the Shibor 3-month rate remained stable at 1.60%, indicating a low-cost environment for short-term financing, which is beneficial for brokers [4][18] - The average daily trading volume for stock funds during the week of January 12-16 was approximately 40,855 billion, reflecting a 21.32% increase from the previous week, signaling a recovery in market trading sentiment [5][19] - The margin financing balance has seen rapid growth, increasing from approximately 2.56 trillion to 2.72 trillion from January 5 to January 15, 2026, with the proportion of margin trading remaining above 10% [6][20] - The bond market index showed a slight upward trend, with the wealth index rising from 248.7749 points on January 9 to 249.2233 points on January 16, indicating a stable market environment [7][22] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated between 1.84% and 1.86%, reflecting a low-risk interest rate environment, while the stock-bond spread showed a mild upward trend [9][25] Market Review - The A-share securities industry index decreased by 2.21% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points, with a year-on-year increase of 9.58% for the securities sector compared to 24.65% for the CSI 300 [10][27] - In terms of industry ranking, the securities sector ranked 26th among 31 primary industries, slightly outperforming the non-bank financial sector [10][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a stable approach to prevent significant fluctuations in the market, with a focus on long-term investments and reforms to attract capital [2]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from an upward cycle in both liabilities and assets, driven by trends such as the migration of bank deposits and stable long-term interest rates [27]. - The securities sector is experiencing heightened market risk appetite and active trading, benefiting from favorable valuations and performance [27]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - The non-bank financial sector, including securities and insurance, showed positive movements with indices increasing by 1.34% and 1.00% respectively, while the insurance sector faced a decline of 2.63% [9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is implementing measures to regulate the derivatives market and promote healthy development through counter-cyclical adjustments [1]. 2. Insurance - The insurance industry is entering an upward cycle, with a reported 14.89% year-on-year increase in premium income for New China Life, totaling CNY 195.9 billion [12]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau's 2026 work meeting highlighted the importance of risk management and the need for non-bank institutions to focus on their core businesses [12]. 3. Securities - The report notes an increase in the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investor rights [16]. - CITIC Securities reported a 28.75% increase in revenue for 2025, amounting to CNY 74.83 billion, with a net profit increase of 38.46% [18]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds reached CNY 40,908.27 billion, reflecting a 21.22% week-on-week increase [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on stability and counter-cyclical adjustments to promote healthy development in the non-bank financial sector. It highlights the need for regulatory measures in the derivatives market and the importance of risk management to support the real economy [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - The non-bank financial sector, including securities and insurance, showed varied performance with indices changing by +1.34% for non-bank financials and -2.63% for insurance during the week of January 12-16, 2026. The overall market indices, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, decreased by -0.57% [9][11]. 2. Insurance - The insurance sector is entering an upward cycle in both liabilities and assets. The long-term benefits from the trend of bank deposit migration and the stabilization of long-term interest rates are noted. The report remains optimistic about the insurance sector, particularly due to the "reporting and operation integration" strategy that enhances industry concentration [12][27]. 3. Securities - The securities sector is experiencing heightened market risk appetite and trading activity. The report indicates that securities firms and IT companies are benefiting from this environment, with a recommendation to focus on companies like China Ping An and Huatai Securities. Recent adjustments in financing margin requirements are aimed at stabilizing market leverage and protecting investor rights [16][19][27]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the insurance sector, driven by favorable trends in both the liability and asset sides. It also highlights the securities sector's potential for growth due to increased trading activity and market confidence. Specific companies to watch include China Ping An, China Life, and Guotai Junan [27].

每经AI快讯，西南证券1月19日发布研报称，给予招商南油（601975.SH）"买入"评级。评级理由主要包 括：1）深耕油运五十年，从"央企退市第一股"到"重新上市第一股"；2）油轮运输需求保持韧性，化工 运输需求有望释放；3）公司盈利能力持续改善，使用公积金弥补亏损后有望开启分红。风险提示：经 济增长或不及预期风险，运输价格波动风险，船队结构和升级转型风险等。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——短剧大爆发，吸纳69万人就业！一度送外卖的演员也找到工作：收入还算 可观但太累，剧组常备速效救心丸，拍睡觉戏真能睡着 （记者 王瀚黎） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 ...