Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongwei Co Ltd (600438 SH) is **Buy** and is maintained [3] Core Views - Tongwei Co Ltd reported a significant reduction in losses in Q3 2024, with silicon material operating cash flow turning positive [1][4] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 68 272 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38 73% Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB -3 973 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 124 37% [4] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 24 475 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34 47%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1 03% Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB -844 million, a year-on-year decrease of 127 84%, but with a reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter [4] - The company's silicon material business saw improved cost optimization due to lower electricity prices during the wet season, reduced industrial silicon prices, and the completion of capacity ramp-up in Yunnan [4] - The battery segment experienced further losses due to PERC and large-size capacity ramp-up, while the module segment remained roughly breakeven [4] - The company's management capabilities were highlighted, with a period expense ratio of 11 27% in Q3 2024 and a significant improvement in operating cash flow to RMB 2 988 billion [4] Financial Data and Forecasts - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 88 345 billion, a significant decrease from RMB 139 104 billion in 2023 [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB -4 956 billion in 2024, compared to RMB 13 574 billion in 2023 [9] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB -1 10 in 2024, recovering to RMB 1 11 in 2025 and RMB 1 62 in 2026 [9] - Operating cash flow is projected to improve significantly, from RMB 5 241 billion in 2024 to RMB 11 574 billion in 2026 [9] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of N-type silicon material shipments while pursuing cost reductions, with unit power consumption already below 50 kWh and silicon consumption below 1 04 kg/Kg-Si [5] - By the end of 2024, the company's TNC capacity is expected to exceed 100 GW, with TOPCon battery profitability expected to recover as module production increases and large-size products are gradually introduced [5] - The company is also innovating in HJT technology, which could potentially break the industry's overcapacity situation [5] - The module business continues to grow rapidly, with the company ranking on the BNEF Tier 1 photovoltaic module manufacturer list and expanding its overseas market presence [5] Market Performance - The current stock price is RMB 29 91, with a total market capitalization of RMB 450 198 million [6] - Over the past 12 months, the stock has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 37% compared to the index's 18% decline [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 showed significant improvement, with total revenue reaching 68.272 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.973 billion yuan. In Q3 2024, revenue was 24.475 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.03%, and a substantial reduction in losses with a gross margin of 8.90%, up by 3.47 percentage points [5] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement in its silicon material production, with the production cost significantly lowered in Q3 2024. The new capacity from the Inner Mongolia project is ramping up, which is expected to strengthen the company's cost advantage in silicon materials [5] - In the battery segment, the company is rapidly increasing its N-type battery capacity, with expectations to exceed 100GW by the end of the year. The company has achieved record-breaking efficiency in its heterojunction components [6] - The company's module business is expanding internationally, with new contracts signed in markets such as South Africa and the UAE, and an increasing share of overseas sales [6] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 68.272 billion yuan, with a net profit of -3.973 billion yuan. The Q3 revenue was 24.475 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses to -844 million yuan [5] - The projected financials for 2024-2026 indicate a recovery, with expected net profits of -4.570 billion yuan in 2024, followed by 4.354 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.108 billion yuan in 2026. The gross margin is expected to improve from 7.1% in 2024 to 16.0% in 2026 [8][10] - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is projected to be between 3.0 and 3.2, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 36.82 to 39.28 yuan per share [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) with a target price of 35.11 CNY [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant reduction in losses in Q3 2024 compared to previous quarters, indicating a potential turnaround in performance [1]. - The integrated production model is expected to enhance growth opportunities, particularly in the silicon material and solar cell sectors [2]. - The company has achieved a year-on-year increase in silicon material shipments, with a notable 28.5% growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity for N-type solar cells, with plans to exceed 100GW by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company has successfully increased its module shipments, with a 58.68% year-on-year growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 being -4.97 billion, 4.52 billion, and 7.02 billion CNY respectively [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 101.34 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.1% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be -4.97 billion CNY, a significant decline of 136.6% compared to the previous year [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -1.10 CNY for 2024, with a recovery to 1.00 CNY in 2025 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be -27 for 2024, improving to 30 in 2025 and 19 in 2026 [3].

Group 1: Company Performance and Financials - The company reported a short-term debt increase in Q3, primarily due to expanded operational scale, with cash and cash equivalents around 16.4 billion RMB and trading financial assets approximately 14.6 billion RMB, ensuring liquidity for future operations [2][3] - The company achieved a significant reduction in production costs for high-purity crystalline silicon in Q3, leading to a decrease in losses for this segment [8] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditure in 2025 compared to the current year, aligning with strategic planning and market conditions [8] Group 2: Acquisition and Market Strategy - The due diligence for the acquisition of Runyang is ongoing, with completion expected soon, and no additional acquisitions are currently planned [2][3] - The company is actively monitoring potential policies regarding capacity utilization in the photovoltaic sector and will adapt accordingly [2][3] - The company has established a global innovation R&D center to focus on new technologies, including TOPCon, HJT, and perovskite-silicon tandem cells [4][5] Group 3: Market Position and Product Development - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas component exports, with a monthly export ratio reaching around 10% and securing large orders from regions like South Africa and the Middle East [5][6] - The company has completed the transformation of its PERC production capacity and is ramping up its N-type battery capacity to exceed 100 GW [4][5] - The company is committed to enhancing its core competitiveness and has achieved notable results in overseas market development [3][4] Group 4: Shareholder Engagement and Stock Management - The company has initiated a share buyback plan with a budget of 2 billion to 4 billion RMB, having already repurchased approximately 101.36 million shares, accounting for about 2.25% of total shares [8][9] - The controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake in the company by investing between 1 billion and 2 billion RMB from February 1, 2024, to January 31, 2025 [9]

证券代码：600438 证券简称：通威股份 公告编号：2024-090 通威股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2024/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 2024/4/28~2025/4/27 | | 预计回购金额 | 200,000 万元~400,000 万元 | | 回购用途 | □减少注册资本 √用于员工持股计划或股权激励 | | | □用于转换公司可转债 | | | □为维护公司价值及股东权益 | | 累计已回购股数 | 股 101,360,012 | | 累计已回购股数占总股本比例 | 2.2515% | | 累计已回购金额 | 万元 200,101.50 | | 实际回购价格区间 | 17.43 元/股~22.94 元/股 | 一、 回购股份的基本情况 公司于 2024 年 4 月 28 日召开第八届董事会第十八次会议，审议通过了《关于 以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股 ...

股票代码：600438 股票简称：通威股份 公告编号：2024-089 债券代码：110085 债券简称：通 22 转债 通威股份有限公司 关于对外提供担保的进展公告 公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 被担保人名称： 2024 年 10 月 1 日—2024 年 10 月 31 日期间（以下简称"本次期间"）公司担保事项被 担保人均为非上市公司关联人。被担保人如下：公司下属 5 家全资子公司：通威太阳 能（眉山）有限公司、蚌埠市通威新能源有限公司、前江通威有限责任公司、同塔通威 有限责任公司、和平通威有限责任公司；公司下属 3 家控股子公司：云南通威高纯晶 硅有限公司、越南天邦饲料有限公司、通威（海南）水产食品有限公司；公司 1 家合营 公司：通威拜欧玛（无锡）生物科技有限公司；公司 2 家联营公司：贵港史记生物技术 有限公司、湖北史记种猪畜牧有限公司；公司部分客户。 本次期间担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保余额： 本次期间，公司及下属子公司相互提供担保金额为 6.41 亿元；公司及子公司为合 营、联 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 68.272 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 38.73%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 3.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 124.37% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.47%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.03% [1] - The report highlights that the decline in polysilicon costs and the seasonal drop in electricity prices during the wet season have helped narrow the losses in Q3 2024 [1] - The company is expected to have a polysilicon production capacity exceeding 850,000 tons by the end of 2024, with plans to acquire at least 51% of Runyang shares, which will further increase its market share [1] - The company is expanding its N-type battery production capacity, with expectations to reach over 130-150 GW by 2026 [1] - The report forecasts revenues of 105.832 billion yuan, 135.453 billion yuan, and 159.172 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at -5.33 billion yuan, 4.327 billion yuan, and 7.2 billion yuan for the same years [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net loss of 844 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 127.84%, but a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 63.98% [1] - The company recorded a total revenue of 139.104 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 105.832 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of -23.9% [2][4] Production Capacity - The company has over 650,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon production capacity, with plans to increase this to over 850,000 tons by the end of 2024 [1] - The N-type battery production capacity is expected to exceed 100 GW by the end of 2024, with further expansions planned [1] Market Position - The acquisition of Runyang is expected to enhance the company's overseas market presence and production capacity in regions such as the United States, Thailand, and Vietnam [1] - The report emphasizes the company's cost advantages in polysilicon and the competitive edge of its battery products [1]

股票代码：600438 股票简称：通威股份 公告编号：2024-088 债券代码：110085 债券简称：通 22 转债 通威股份有限公司 关于控股股东股份质押解除及质押的公告 通威集团有限公司（以下简称"通威集团"）持有通威股份有限公司（以下简称"本 公司"）44.91%的股份，为本公司控股股东。截止本公告披露日，通威集团累计质押 382,260,000 股股份，合计占本公司总股本的 8.49%，占其所持本公司股份总数的 18.90%。 本公司于近日收到通威集团关于部分股份解除质押及再质押的通知，具体事 项如下： 一、上市公司股份解质 通威集团将质押给兴业银行股份有限公司成都分行的股份解除质押，合计解 除质押 25,000,000 股，情况如下： | 股东名称 | 通威集团有限公司 | | --- | --- | | 本次解质股份（股） | 25,000,000 | | 占其所持股份比例 | 1.24% | | 占公司总股本比例 | 0.56% | | 解质时间 | 2024 年 10 月 29 日 | | 持股数量（股） | 2,022,022,587 | | 持股比例 | 44.91% | | 剩余被质 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongwei Co Ltd (600438 SH) [1][2] Core Views - Tongwei Co Ltd reported revenue of 68 3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 3 97 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24 5 billion yuan, down 34% year-on-year, and a net loss of 844 million yuan, showing a significant reduction in losses compared to Q2 [1] - The company's polysilicon cash cost decreased significantly in Q3 due to lower electricity prices during the wet season and a drop in industrial silicon prices [1] - Tongwei Co Ltd is expected to increase its polysilicon nominal capacity to 850,000 tons by the end of 2024, with low-cost advanced capacity helping to reduce overall production costs [2] - The company is accelerating its battery capacity restructuring, with TNC capacity expected to exceed 100GW by the end of 2024, and new HJT, XBC, and perovskite battery pilot lines are already in use [2] - The module business is steadily progressing, with new market developments in South Africa and the UAE, and multiple orders from well-known customers, which are expected to provide new performance increments [2] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been adjusted to -5 05 billion yuan, 5 03 billion yuan, and 7 68 billion yuan, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 2025/2026 PE ratios of 26/17 times [2] Financial Performance - Tongwei Co Ltd's revenue in 2021 was 63 491 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8 208 billion yuan [4] - In 2022, the company's revenue increased by 124 3% to 142 423 billion yuan, with a net profit of 25 726 billion yuan [4] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 139 104 billion yuan, a decrease of 2 3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 13 574 billion yuan [4] - The 2024 revenue forecast is 108 343 billion yuan, a decrease of 22 1% year-on-year, with a net loss of 6 051 billion yuan [4] - The 2025 revenue forecast is 135 326 billion yuan, an increase of 24 9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5 051 billion yuan [4] - The 2026 revenue forecast is 156 874 billion yuan, an increase of 15 9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7 675 billion yuan [4] Market and Industry Analysis - The polysilicon industry is accelerating its clearing process under profit pressure, with domestic polysilicon production from July to September 2024 at 130,000-140,000 tons per month, significantly lower than the previous peak of 190,000 tons [2] - Tongwei Co Ltd's 200,000-ton polysilicon project in Yunnan was successfully put into operation in May 2024, and the 200,000-ton project in Baotou is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 2024 [2] - The company's comprehensive leading battery layout is expected to enjoy a premium for new technologies, with 38GW PERC capacity already fully upgraded and 16GW in Meishan and 25GW in Shuangliu TNC battery capacity expected to be released by the end of 2024 [2]

2024年10月31日 来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 通威股份 (600438.SH) 买入(维持评级) 公司点评 证券研究报告 多晶硅成本下降，一体化稳步推进 业绩简评 10 月 30 日公司披露 2024年三季报,前三季度实现营收 683 亿元,同比-39%,实现归母净利润-39.7亿元,同比转亏。其中 Q3 实现营收 245 亿元,同比-34%,实现归母净利润-8.44 亿元,环比 02(-23. 43 亿)显著减亏。 经营分析 丰水期电价推动多晶硅现金成本下降。三季度公司部分多晶 硅产区(四川、云南)水电进入丰水期电价,叠加工业硅价格下降, 测算公司多晶硅现金成本显著下降。测算公司Q3多晶硅出货 13- 14 万吨,环比Q2 维持增长,在多晶硅价格全面跌破行业成本的背 景下,公司仍维持较高开工率,将现金成本的下降较大程度传导至 全成本下降,成本及盈利相对优势凸显。 盈利压力下多晶硅行业加速出清,低成本产能释放有望巩固 头部地位。据硅业分会,7-9月国内多晶硅月产量13-14 万吨,较 前期高点 19万吨显著下降,行业新增产能投产放缓,部分老旧产 能逐步出清。公司云南 20 万吨多晶硅项目于 5 月顺 ...