业绩超预期，成本红利显现 青岛啤酒（600600.SH）/饮 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月29日 料制造 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格：79.31 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 32,172 33,937 35,136 36,386 37,664 分析师：范劲松 增长率yoy% 7% 5% 4% 4% 4% 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 净利润（百万元） 3,711 4,268 5,099 5,798 6,378 电话：021-20315733 增长率yoy% 18% 15% 19% 14% 10% 每股收益（元） 2.72 3.13 3.74 4.25 4.67 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 3.58 2.04 4.13 4.68 5.12 分析师：熊欣慰 净资产收益率 14% 15% 16% 17% 17% 执业证书编号：S0740519080002 P/E 29.2 25.4 21. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [5][7] Core Views - Qingdao Beer reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 10.1% to 1.6 billion yuan [2][3] - Despite a decline in sales volume, the company is successfully upgrading its product structure, with a 2.6% increase in average selling price (ASP) to 4,647 yuan per thousand liters [3][4] - The company has improved its net profit margin to 15.99%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost control and a favorable product mix [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2024 revenue was 10.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, with sales volume down 7.6% to 2.184 million kiloliters [2][3] - The main brand's sales volume fell by 5.6%, while mid-to-high-end products saw a smaller decline of 2.4% [3] - Gross margin improved to 40.44%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, aided by lower costs for barley and packaging materials [4] Cost Management - The company achieved a sales expense ratio of 12.83%, down 1.02 percentage points, reflecting improved efficiency in expense allocation [4] - Management expense ratio increased slightly to 3.4%, up 0.41 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates easing of high base pressure in the coming quarters, with expectations for improved sales during the peak season [5] - The company aims for double-digit growth in sales of its premium products, indicating a continued focus on high-end market segments [5] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 5.033 billion, 5.753 billion, and 6.353 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.69, 4.22, and 4.66 yuan [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) [5] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 10.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10% to 1.597 billion, exceeding expectations [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5 billion, 5.63 billion, and 6.22 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x for the respective years [5] - The report highlights the potential for continuous improvement in the dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 2.5% for 2023, making it attractive for investors [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 79.31 yuan - One-year high/low: 112.79/67.56 yuan - Market capitalization: 55.89 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.7 - Dividend yield: 0.63 [2] Financial Data - Net asset per share: 21.31 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 40.85% - Total shares: 1.364 billion, circulating A shares: 705 million [3] Sales Performance - Q1 2024 sales volume: 2.184 million tons, down 7.6% year-on-year - Main brand sales volume: 1.322 million tons, down 5.6% - Mid-to-high-end product sales volume: 960,000 tons, down 2.4% - The proportion of mid-to-high-end products in total sales increased by 2.3 percentage points to 43.96% [6] Cost and Profitability - Q1 2024 cost per ton: 2,768 yuan, down 1% year-on-year - Gross margin: 40.44%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year - Net profit margin: 15.7%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Projections - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026: 35.907 billion, 37.932 billion, and 39.622 billion respectively - Expected net profit growth rates: 16.9%, 12.8%, and 10.4% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][8]

2024年04月30日 公 司点评 公 买入 / 维持 司 青岛啤酒(600600) 研 究 目标价: 92.25 昨收盘:79.31 一季度成本端改善，利润增长超预期 事件：青岛啤酒发布2024年一季报，2024Q1实现营收101.50亿 ◼ 走势比较 元，同比-5.19%，归母净利润15.97亿元，同比+10.06%，扣非归母净 利润15.13亿元，同比+12.11%。 10% 销量因高基数略有承压，利润释放超预期。公司一季度收入端高 太 0% 基数下略有承压，利润端超预期。2024Q1销售收现达96.22亿元，同 平 (10%)4/5/32 51/7/32 52/9/32 6/21/32 61/2/42 82/4/42 比+5.17%，高于收入增速。量价拆分来看，2024Q1 公司销量/吨价分 洋 别为 218.4 万千升/4647 元/千升，同比-7.6%/+2.6%，其中主品牌青 (20%) 证 岛啤酒/中高端及以上产品分别实现销量 132.2/96 万千升， 同比- (30%) 5.6%/-2.4%，中高端及以上产品销量占比44.0%，同比+2.3pct，预计 券 (40%) 经典、白啤持续高增， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Qingdao Beer [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a significant improvement in profit margins [1][3] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end products continues to increase, contributing to a rise in average selling price [3] - Raw material costs have decreased, and product structure upgrades have led to a substantial increase in gross margin [3] - The company is expected to maintain a steady sales rhythm with a focus on core product development and cost control, leading to profit growth outpacing revenue growth [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 total revenue reached 10.15 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% [2][3] - The sales volume for Q1 2024 was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-over-year, but the sales of mid-to-high-end products accounted for 44.0% of total sales, up 2.3 percentage points [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 40.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-over-year, driven by lower raw material costs and product upgrades [3] - The company expects a profit growth rate of 12% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 5.1 billion, 5.7 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]

公司研 究 证券研究报告 啤酒 2024年04月29日 青 岛啤酒（600600）2024年一季报点评 强 推 （维持） 目标价：105元 成本红利兑现，业绩略超预期 当前价：79.31元 事项： 华创证券研究所  公司发布 2024年一季报，2024年 Q1公司实现营业总收入 101.5亿元，同比- 证券分析师：欧阳予 5.2%；实现归母净利润 16.0 亿元，同比+10.1%；实现扣非归母净利润 15.1 亿元，同比+12.1%。 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 评论： 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼  高基数下总量承压，结构升级趋势不改。量价拆分看，24Q1公司实现啤酒销 量 218.4 万千升，同比-7.6%，主要系去年同期疫后消费高涨及公司销售节奏 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 前置发力导致基数较高。但结构升级趋势不改，主品牌/中高端以上分别实现 执业编号：S0360520090001 销量 132.2/96 万千升，同比-5.6%/-2.4%，占比同增 1.2/2.3pcts 至 60.5%、 证券分析师：董广阳 44.0%，表现优于整体销 ...

证 券 2024 年 04 月 29 日 研 究 毛销差同比扩大，释放业绩弹性 报 告 —青岛啤酒（600600.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024 年 04 月 29 日，青岛啤酒发布 2023 年一季度业绩报 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 告。 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 投资要点 基本数据 2024-04-29 ▌ 毛销差扩大，高端化升级推升盈利能力 当前股价（元） 79.31 总市值（亿元） 1082 公司 2024 年一季度营收 101.50 亿元（同比-5.19%），归母 净利润 15.97 亿元（同比+10.06%），扣非归母净利润为 总股本（百万股） 1364 15.13 亿元（同比+12.11%）。2024 年一季度毛利率为 流通股本（百万股） 705 40.44% （ 同 比 +2.12pcts ） ， 净 利 率 15.99% （ 同 比 52周价格范围（元） 68.35-112.15 +2.23pcts）；销售费用率为 12.83%（同比-1.02pcts），管 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was RMB 10.15 billion, a decrease of 5.19% year-over-year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 1.597 billion, an increase of 10.06% year-over-year[4] - Net profit for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.62 billion RMB, compared to 1.47 billion RMB in the same period last year[18] - Operating income for the first quarter of 2024 was 10.15 billion RMB, down from 10.71 billion RMB in the same period last year[17] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.175, an increase of 9.71% year-over-year[4] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.175 RMB, up from 1.071 RMB in the same period last year[19] - Weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 5.65%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points[4] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 2.853 billion, an increase of 57.29% year-over-year[4] - Net cash flow from operating activities increased by 57.3% to 2,853,166,067 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,813,957,743 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Total cash inflow from operating activities reached 10,020,892,260 yuan in Q1 2024, up 7.5% from 9,325,415,046 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash outflow for purchasing goods and services decreased by 5.6% to 3,776,378,876 yuan in Q1 2024 from 4,000,150,030 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash payments for investments surged to 7,200,000,000 yuan in Q1 2024, a 12.7% increase from 6,386,109,500 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Net cash flow from investment activities was -5,925,636,971 yuan in Q1 2024, compared to -4,190,214,856 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2024 stood at 6,183,503,443 yuan, a 40.8% decrease from 10,444,423,063 yuan at the end of Q1 2023[22] - Cash payments for employee compensation increased by 4.5% to 1,392,868,601 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,333,509,933 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Tax payments decreased by 17.2% to 1,135,815,605 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,370,839,687 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash received from disposal of fixed assets and intangible assets dropped significantly to 7,273,212 yuan in Q1 2024 from 586,174,150 yuan in Q1 2023[21] Sales and Product Performance - Total product sales volume for the first quarter was 2.184 million kiloliters, with the main brand Tsingtao Beer contributing 1.322 million kiloliters[5] - Sales volume of mid-to-high-end products reached 960,000 kiloliters[5] - Sales of goods and services received cash of 9,622,455,676 yuan in Q1 2024, a 5.2% increase from 9,149,118,050 yuan in Q1 2023[20] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased by 2.44% to RMB 50.459 billion compared to the end of the previous year[5] - Total assets increased to 50.46 billion RMB, up from 49.26 billion RMB in the previous period[15] - Equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company increased by 5.89% to RMB 29.068 billion[5] - Total equity increased to 29.85 billion RMB from 28.25 billion RMB[16] - Total liabilities decreased to 20.61 billion RMB from 21.00 billion RMB[16] - Contract liabilities decreased to 5.94 billion RMB from 7.69 billion RMB[15] - The company's monetary funds increased to RMB 21.60 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 19.28 billion at the end of 2023[13] - Trading financial assets rose to RMB 3.04 billion in Q1 2024, up from RMB 1.92 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Inventory decreased to RMB 2.51 billion in Q1 2024 from RMB 3.54 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Total current assets reached RMB 30.11 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 29.61 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Fixed assets stood at RMB 10.95 billion as of March 31, 2024, slightly down from RMB 11.15 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Construction in progress increased to RMB 603.06 million in Q1 2024 from RMB 498.57 million at the end of 2023[14] - Intangible assets grew to RMB 2.62 billion as of March 31, 2024, up from RMB 2.49 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Deferred tax assets rose to RMB 2.14 billion in Q1 2024 from RMB 2.03 billion at the end of 2023[14] - The company's total non-current assets increased to RMB 19.05 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 18.13 billion at the end of 2023[14] Investments and Acquisitions - The company acquired a 20% stake in Qingdao Beer (Anshan) Co., Ltd. for RMB 18.065 million, increasing its ownership to 80%[12] Expenses and Costs - Research and development expenses increased to 17.83 million RMB from 10.70 million RMB[18] - Sales expenses decreased to 1.30 billion RMB from 1.48 billion RMB[18] - Financial expenses showed a net income of 141.21 million RMB, compared to 102.26 million RMB in the same period last year[18] Government Subsidies - Government subsidies received during the period amounted to RMB 94.924 million[6]

公 价格提升驱动增长 盈利能力获得提升 司 研 ——青岛啤酒（600600.SH）年报点评 食品饮料/非白酒 究 事件： 公司发布 2023年度年报，全年实现营收/归母净利润 339.37/42.68亿元，同 评级 买入 比增长5.49%/15.02%。其中Q4实现营收29.58亿元、同比下滑3.37%，归 2024年04月08日 母净利润-6.4 亿元，较同期（22Q4 归母净利润-5.56 亿元）亏损加大。业绩 符合市场预期。 徐广福 分析师 投资摘要： SAC执业证书编号：S1660524030001 主品牌组合发展提升产品结构，千升酒价提升趋势延续，23年4季度销量短 年 期承压。23年全年销量801万千升，同比下滑0.82%，千升酒价4170元/千 报 升、同比增长 6.18%，全年千升酒价提高为业绩增长驱动力。全年青岛品牌/ 其他品牌销量分别为 456 万/345 万千升，同比增长 2.67%/下滑 5.08%。青 交易数据 时间 2024.4.8 点 岛品牌实现营收 232.63亿元，其他品牌实现营收 101.43亿元，青岛品牌/其 总市值/流通市值（亿元） 1,063.39/549.31 他品 ...

2024年04月10日 公司研究●证券研究报告 青岛啤酒（ ） 公司快报 600600.SH 食品饮料 | 啤酒Ⅲ 结构升级延续，成本改善可期 投资评级 买入-B(首次) 股价(2024-04-09) 78.45元 事件： 公司发布2023年年报，2023全年公司实现营业收入339.37亿元，同比+5.5%，实 交易数据 现归母净利润42.68亿元，同比+15.02%，实现扣非归母净利润37.21亿元，同比 总市值（百万元） 107,021.24 +15.94%。单季度来看，23Q4公司实现营业收入29.58亿元，同比-3.4%，实现归母 流通市值（百万元） 55,283.59 净利润-6.4亿元，同比-15.01%，实现扣非归母净利润-8.76亿元，同比-34.53%。 总股本（百万股） 1,364.20 流通股本（百万股） 704.70 投资要点 12个月价格区间 118.72/69.11 收入分析：高端化进程稳步推进，基地市场增长亮眼。2023年公司实现营收339.37 一年股价表现 亿元，同比+5.5%（其中Q1：+16.27%；Q2：+8.16%；Q3：-4.58%；Q4：-3.37%）。 公司啤 ...