华鑫证券指出，海外再迎超级避险节点，衰退交易加剧全球资产波动；国内聚焦一季度财报、经济数据验证和4月中央政治局会议信号等。"4月决断"面临内 外多重考验，港股震荡为主，A股震荡调整，微盘承压，风格高低切换。建议关注业绩修复、周期涨价、红利防御等方向。待中下旬止跌信号确认后，可逐 步博弈成长反弹机会。 4月首个交易日，A股市场全天冲高回落，三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指涨0.38%，深成指跌0.01%，创业板指跌0.09%。沪深两市全天成交额1.13万亿 元，较上个交易日缩量893亿元。全市场超3800只个股上涨。板块方面，可控核聚变、创新药、中药、电力等板块涨幅居前，人形机器人、算力、软件开 发、金融科技等板块跌幅居前。 回顾3月，A股整体呈震荡趋势，三大指数在3月初上涨之后，在3月下旬出现了回调。当月沪指上涨0.45%，深证成指下跌0.99%，创业板指下跌3.07%，北证 50下跌2.74%。在行业方面，申万31个一级行业中有17个行业实现了上涨，涨幅前三分别是：有色金属（7.75%）、家用电器（4.32%）、煤炭（3.63%）； 在下跌行业中，计算机（-5.43%）跌幅最大，房地产（-4.80%）、电子 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer reported its 2024 annual results, showing a decline in total revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating mixed performance in the financial year [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year was 32.138 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [1] - In Q4, total revenue was 3.179 billion yuan, an increase of 7.44% year-on-year, while net profit was -645 million yuan, a decrease of 0.79% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin increased by 4.05% to 40.23%, and net margin increased by 9.08% to 13.98% [1] - Total expenses for sales, management, and finance were 5.441 billion yuan, accounting for 16.93% of revenue, a decrease of 0.42% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) was 3.19 yuan, an increase of 1.66% year-on-year [1] Cash Flow and Assets - Operating cash flow per share was 3.78 yuan, an increase of 85.58% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a significant decrease in other receivables by 54.83%, attributed to the recovery of receivables from the disposal of land use rights and other long-term assets [1] Return on Investment - The company's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) was 13.36%, indicating strong capital returns [1] - The net profit margin was 13.98%, reflecting high value-added products or services [1] Financing and Dividends - Over its 32 years of listing, the company has cumulatively raised 1.425 billion yuan and distributed 15.576 billion yuan in dividends, resulting in a dividend-to-financing ratio of 10.93 [1] Market Expectations - Analysts expect the company's performance in 2025 to reach 4.82 billion yuan, with an average EPS of 3.54 yuan [1] - The company is held by two prominent fund managers, with the largest fund being Penghua CSI Alcohol ETF, currently valued at 12.552 billion yuan [1]

事件：公司发布2024 年年报，公司实现营业总收入321.38 亿元，同比-5.30%；实现归母净利润43.45 亿 元，同比+1.81%；扣非归母净利润为39.51亿元，同比+6.19%；单Q4 公司实现营业总收入31.79 亿元， 同比+7.44%；实现归母净利润-6.45 亿元，去年同期-6.40 亿元；扣非归母净利润为-7.35亿元，去年同 期-8.76 亿元。此外，公司分红率持续提升，每股派发现金2.2元，分红率达69.07%。23 年每股派发现金 2.00 元，分红率为63.93%。 24Q4 淡季销量环比改善，同比+5.61%，且结构升级仍在持续推进。公司24Q4实现收入31.79 亿元，同 比+7.44%。拆分量价看，销量同比+5.61%，吨收入同比+1.73%。均较此前季度环比改善，其中： 24Q1/24Q2/24Q3 销量分别同比-7.58%/-8.05%/-5.11%，吨收入分别同比+2.58%/-0.91%/-0.18%。此外， 24Q4 结构升级仍持续推进，24Q4 主品牌销量同比+7.45%，销量占比同比+1.15pcts，24Q4 中高档以上 销量同比+10.95%，销量占比同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of 81.19, compared to the last closing price of 76.53 [1][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer is expected to face sales pressure in 2024, with a focus on waiting for demand recovery [1][5]. - The company's 2024 revenue is reported at 32.138 billion, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.345 billion, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [5][8]. - The report highlights that the beer sales volume in 2024 is under pressure, with a total production of 35.213 million tons in China, down 0.6% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a sales volume of 7.538 million tons, down 5.9% year-on-year, with an average price of 4189.3 yuan per ton, up 0.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The main brand sales volume was 4.34 million tons, down 4.8%, while other brands saw a decline of 7.2% [5][6]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased to 2548 yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin of 40.23%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [6][8]. - The net profit margin reached 13.5%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 2% for 2027, with net profit growth of 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.53, 3.84, and 4.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 20x, and 19x [6][8].

2）24 年吨成本为 2548 元/千升（同比-1.98%），24Q4 吨成本为 3114 元/千升（同 比+3.47%），24 年吨成本改善主因低价原料使用。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 非白酒 青岛啤酒(600600) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 31 日 24 年业绩符合预期，看好 25 年销量反弹 ——青岛啤酒 2024 业绩点评 投资要点 24 年山东、华北、华南、华东、东南收入同比增速分别为-3.38%、-2.24%、- 6.75%、-9.91%、-24.14%，净利润同比增速分别为 14.0%、15.5%、+2.7%、- 63.3%、-271%，净利率分别同比变动+2.0、+3.4、+1.3、-4.5、-14pct，其中山东 &华北核心市场收入增速相对较优、且毛利率和净利率均有提升。 ❑ 吨成本改善+费用管控促使利润率改善，分红率提升 1）24 年毛利率、净利率同比变动+1.57、+1.16pct 至 40.23%、+13.98%；24Q4 毛利率、净利率同比变动-1.24、+1.91pct 至 26.24%、-20.09%。 3）24 年销售费用率、管理费用率（含研发）分别同比变动+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][9]. Core Views - The beer industry faced challenges in the first three quarters of 2024 due to weak dining consumption and weather factors, but the company is expected to recover in 2025 under new management [1][9]. - The company announced a dividend payout ratio increase of 5 percentage points to 69%, indicating enhanced dividend attributes and potential for further increases in the future [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 32.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.35 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year [2][11]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 3.18 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 640 million yuan, slightly worsening [2][11]. Sales and Pricing - In 2024, the company's total sales volume was 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.9% year-on-year, with the Qingdao brand accounting for 4.34 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% [3][9]. - The average price per ton of beer increased by 0.4% to 4,189 yuan, with Q4 showing a sales volume increase of 5.2% and a price increase of 2.2% to 4,221 yuan per ton [3][4]. Cost and Margins - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 1.6 percentage points to 40.1%, while Q4 gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 26.2% due to a slight increase in cost per ton [4][9]. - The company's cost per ton in Q4 was 3,114 yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, attributed to structural upgrades and seasonal production fluctuations [4][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 33.12 billion yuan, 33.80 billion yuan, and 34.17 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 4.785 billion yuan, 5.232 billion yuan, and 5.715 billion yuan respectively [11][9].

事件：24 年实现营业收入321.4 亿元，同比-5.3%；归母净利润43.4 亿元，同比+1.8%；扣非归母净利润 39.5 亿元，同比+6.2%。其中，24Q4 实现营业收入31.8 亿元，同比+7.4%；归母净利润-6.4 亿元，同比 亏损扩大；扣非归母净利润-7.4 亿元，同比亏损缩小。 盈利预测、估值与评级：我们维持公司2025-2026 年归母净利润分别为48.46/51.71 亿元，引入2027 年归 母净利润预测为54.42 亿元，折合2025-2027年EPS 分别为3.55/3.79/3.99 元，当前股价对应2025-2027 年 PE 分别为22x/20x/19x，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：市场竞争恶化；渠道掌控力减弱；原材料成本上涨。 成本下降毛利率改善，全年净利率同比提升。1）24 年/24Q4 公司毛利率分别为40.23%/26.24%，同比 +1.57/-1.24pcts。24 年毛利率同比提升主要系部分原材料成本下降。2）24 年/24Q4 公司销售费用率分 别为14.32%/37.18%，同比+0.45/-4.24pcts。24 年公司缩减部分区域业务宣传费，整体销售费 ...

2025 年 3 月 31 日 公司研究 24 年收入承压，管理层换新或迎改变 ——青岛啤酒（600600.SH）2024 年年报点评 要点 事件： 24 年实现营业收入 321.4 亿元，同比-5.3%；归母净利润 43.4 亿元，同 比+1.8%；扣非归母净利润 39.5 亿元，同比+6.2%。其中，24Q4 实现营业收入 31.8 亿元，同比+7.4%；归母净利润-6.4 亿元，同比亏损扩大；扣非归母净利润 -7.4 亿元，同比亏损缩小。 价增量减，结构持续升级。拆分量价看，2024 年公司啤酒销量/吨价分别同比 -5.9%/+0.6%；24Q4 公司啤酒销量/吨价分别同比+5.4%/+1.9%。具体看产品， 2024 年公司主品牌青岛啤酒共实现销量 434 万千升，yoy-4.8%；其他品牌实现 销量 320 万千升，yoy-7.2%。分档次看，2024 年中高档以上产品共实现销量 315 万千升，yoy-2.7%。分渠道看，公司加快新零售业务发展，24 年线上产品 销量同比+21%，连续 12 年保持增长；公司亦加快推进新鲜直送业务布局，青 岛精品原浆和水晶纯生啤酒产品在 24 座城市实现新鲜直送。 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 量价趋势改善，看好 25 年恢复 消费品/食品饮料 公司 24 年面临外部需求压力，调整发货节奏消化渠道库存，通过成本&费用管 控实现稳健增长。25 年公司换届落地后经营进入新周期，费用投放更加灵活， 叠加餐饮客流复苏，环比改善较为确定，看好 25 年恢复。 风险提示：极端天气影响、中高端竞争加剧、高管人员减持风险等 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 33937 | 32138 | 33278 | 34327 | 35256 | | 同比增长 | 5% | -5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5737 | 5843 | 6504 | 7040 | 7551 | | 同比增长 | 15% | 2% | 11% | 8% | 7% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 4268 | 4345 | 4830 | ...

买入（维持） 2024Q4 营收环比改善，成本红利带动盈利提升 青岛啤酒（600600）2024 年年报点评 2025 年 3 月 31 日 投资要点： 事件：公司发布2024年年报。 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 股价走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 公 司 研 究 公 司 点 评 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 主要数据 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 28 日 收盘价(元) 76.53 总市值（亿元） 1044 总股本(亿股) 13.64 流通股本(亿股) 13.64 ROE（TTM） 14.95% 12 月最高价(元) 86.18 12 月最低价(元) 53.20 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读末页声明。 2 ◼ 公司2024Q4营收环比改善。2024年，公司实现营业总收入321.38亿元， 同比下降5.30%；实现归母净利润4 ...