Core Viewpoint - Company is focusing on international expansion of its aggregate business as a new growth point, indicating that the competitive landscape in the aggregate industry is expected to be stronger than that of the cement industry [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 34.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, with total profit of 4.112 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.416 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.95% and 12.52% respectively [3]. - The revenue from the cement business accounted for 55% of total revenue, while non-cement businesses have shown steady growth, becoming significant contributors to profits [3]. - Aggregate sales exceeded 14.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with revenue from aggregates reaching approximately 5.642 billion yuan, up 5.18% [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The cement industry in China is under pressure, with a production capacity of approximately 2.561 billion tons and a production volume of 1.825 billion tons in 2024, marking the lowest level since 2010, with a capacity utilization rate of only 71.24% [2]. - The company has adapted to the challenging market by optimizing its organizational structure and implementing various strategic initiatives over the past two decades, including integrated development and environmental transformation [2]. Group 3: International Expansion - The company has established a presence in 12 countries, including Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and South Africa, with a cement production capacity of 12.6 million tons, becoming a leader in the Central Asian cement market [5][6]. - In 2024, overseas revenue reached 7.984 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47%, with overseas cement sales of 16.2 million tons, up 37% [7]. - The company plans to invest approximately 13.3 billion yuan in overseas capital expenditures in 2025, focusing on acquisitions and projects in Nigeria and Brazil [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve total revenue of 37.1 billion yuan in 2025, with projected sales of 5.7 million tons of cement and clinker, 17 million tons of aggregates, and 3 million cubic meters of concrete [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 342 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13% to 24 billion yuan [4] - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditure in 2025 to approximately 133 billion yuan, focusing on aggregate and overseas cement capacity [9] - The company's international business is expanding rapidly, with overseas revenue growing by 47% to 80 billion yuan, covering 16 countries [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 342 billion yuan, net profit of 24 billion yuan, and a cash dividend of 9.6 billion yuan, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40% [4][5] - The cement business generated revenue of 180 billion yuan, a decrease of 2%, with sales volume also down by 2% to 57 million tons [5] - The concrete business saw revenue growth of 10% to 84 billion yuan, with sales volume increasing by 17% to 31.81 million cubic meters [6] International Expansion - The company’s overseas cement sales reached 16.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with total overseas capacity exceeding 25 million tons per year [7] - The company has signed contracts for cement projects in Nigeria and aggregate projects in Brazil, indicating accelerated internationalization [7] Capacity and Future Outlook - As of the end of 2024, the company has a cement production capacity of 126 million tons per year, ranking fourth globally in clinker capacity [8] - For 2025, the company targets total revenue of 371 billion yuan, an 8% increase, with a focus on expanding aggregate and overseas cement production [9]

事件描述 1、需求复苏不及预期；2、骨料价格低预期。 持续推进替代燃料降能耗。2024 年度累计使用替代燃料441 万吨，较上年增加 5 万吨；集团合并热值替 代率达到21.66%，较上年提升1.66 个百分点，其中国内实现 26.71%。 2025 年经营计划：公司计划资本性支出约 133 亿元，重点集中于骨料、海外水泥的产能及替代燃料建 设。2025 年，公司总收入预计达到 371 亿元，计划销售水泥及熟料约 0.57亿吨，销售骨料 1.7 亿吨，销 售混凝土 0.3 亿方。 产能建设稳步推进，聚焦在海外。截至 2024 年底，公司具备水泥产能 1.26 亿吨/年（含联营企业产 能）、骨料 2.85 亿吨/年。截至 2024 年底，水泥收入占公司营收的比例为55%，作为首批走出去的水泥 企业，公司已在塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、柬埔寨、尼泊尔、坦桑尼亚、赞比亚、马 拉维、南非、莫桑比克、阿曼和津巴布韦等 12个国家布局，并已成为中亚和非洲水泥市场的领军者。 截至 2024 年 底，公司海外累计运营及在建产能突破 2500 万吨，并进一步巩固了在非洲的发展布局。 预计2025-2026 年业绩2 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨华新水泥（600801.SH） [Table_Title] 中期海外市场提供确定性成长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司披露 2024 年报：总收入 342 亿元，同比增长 1.36%，归母净利润 24.2 亿，同比下降 12.5%。单季度来看，24Q4 实现收入 94.98 亿元，同比下降 0.98%；归属净利润 12.8 亿元， 同比增长 43.9%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516040002 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 范超 李金宝 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 华新水泥（600801.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 中期海外市场提供确定性成长 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司披露 2024 年报：总收入 342 亿元，同比增长 1.36%，归母净利润 24.2 亿，同比下降 12.5%。单季度来看，24Q4 实现收入 94.98 亿元，同比下降 0.98%；归属净利润 ...

单季度看，24Q4 受国内复价带动，公司盈利能力环比改善，24Q4 毛利率26.4%，同比-1.3pct，环比 +1.7pct；归母净利率13.5%，同比+4.2pct，环比+8.6pct；销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 3.2%/5.4%/0.4%/-0.2%，同比分别-1.1/持平/-0.1/-2.7pct，环比分别-1.6/+0.1/-0.1/-3.8pct，财务费用同环比 均大幅改善，汇兑影响显著减弱。25 年以来美元指数持续回落，公司海外汇兑风险亦大幅缓解。 盈利预测与投资评级：预计公司25-27 年营收分别为371.16、385.89、406.60 亿，分别同比+8.47%、 +3.97%、+5.37%，归母净利润分别为27.90、30.48、34.88 亿，分别同比+15.45%、+9.25%、+14.43%， 对应PE 分别为10.3、9.5、8.3。国内水泥长期需求下行局面短期不会改变，看好出海和非水泥业务拓展 领先行业的龙头企业华新水泥，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业供给超预期增加；下游需求不及预期；成本超预期升高。 骨料混凝土等非水泥业务稳步增长，骨料毛利企稳。2024 年骨 ...

【投资要点】 公司公布2024 年报。2024 年，公司实现收入342.2 亿元，同比+1.4%，归母净利润24.2 亿元，同 比-12.5%；扣非归母净利润17.8 亿元，同比-23.2%。对应Q4 实现收入95.0 亿元，同比-1.0%，归母净利 润12.8亿元，同比+43.9%；扣非归母净利润7.2 亿元，同比+44.6%。公司2024年业绩符合预期。 2024 国内水泥供需整体承压，水泥熟料吨盈利有所下降。2024 年行业需求下行压力较大，市场价格竞 争较为激烈。根据披露数据测算，公司2024 年水泥熟料销量6026 万吨，同比-2.6%（其中国内销量降幅 约12%），吨均价同比基本持平于312 元/吨（海外销售占比提升拉动）。虽24Q4 行业整体复价，但全 年来看公司水泥熟料吨盈利仍有所收缩，吨毛利同比-8 元/吨至73 元/吨。 2025 年国内供需预计改善，关注海外新项目贡献。我们认为2025 年，地产景气度有望企稳，在化债力 度加大背景下，基建有望托底水泥需求，全年需求下降幅度有望较24 年有所收窄，供给侧层面25 年错 峰力度整体趋严叠加超产管控，判断供需面整体有望改善，支撑价格底部修复。近 ...

事件： 2025 年3 月27 日，华新水泥发布2024 年年报：2024 年公司实现营业收入342.17 亿元，同比增长 1.36%；实现归属上市公司股东的净利润24.16 亿元，同比下滑12.52%。 我们假设公司2025-2027 年营业收入增速分别为5.90%、5.50%、5.31%。公司2024 年业绩逆势增长，盈 利能力保持韧性，我们调整公司2025 及2026 年盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年分别实现营业收入 362.36 亿元（原预测值为373.84 元）、382.29 亿元（原预测值为391.87 亿元）、402.59 亿元，归母净利 润25.43 亿元（原预测值为24.34 亿元）、30.16 亿元（原预测值为26.02 亿元）、32.55亿元，当前股价 对应PE 分别为11.1、9.3、8.6 倍。参考2025 年可比公司平均估值15.6 倍PE，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：宏观环境出现不利变化；水泥需求不及预期；水泥价格上涨不及预期；行业竞争加剧；原材 料价格大幅变化等。 水泥+业务稳步提升，成为公司利润重要贡献点。公司依托水泥主业，稳健发展混凝土、骨料、环保墙 材、水泥装 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue growth against the trend, with cement and related businesses, as well as overseas income, supporting its performance. In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 34.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.52% to 2.416 billion yuan [3][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Despite a decline in overall industry demand, the company managed to achieve revenue growth. The cement production in the industry fell by 9.5% year-on-year to 1.825 billion tons, yet the company's revenue increased by 1.36% [5]. Business Segments - The company's "Cement+" business has steadily improved, becoming a significant contributor to profits. In 2024, external aggregate sales reached 14.3 million tons, up 9%, and ready-mixed concrete sales were 31.81 million cubic meters, up 17% [5]. International Expansion - The company accelerated its international layout, signing contracts for cement and aggregate projects in Nigeria and Brazil. By the end of 2024, overseas production capacity exceeded 22.5 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Overseas cement sales reached 16.2 million tons, up 37%, generating revenue of 7.984 billion yuan, a 47% increase [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth despite ongoing market challenges, with projected revenue growth rates of 5.90%, 5.50%, and 5.31% for 2025-2027. The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 2.543 billion yuan and 3.016 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11.1, 9.3, and 8.6 for the next three years, compared to an average valuation of 15.6 times P/E for comparable companies [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady overseas expansion while domestic profitability is expected to stabilize and recover [1]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 34.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.5% [4]. - The report highlights the successful expansion of overseas operations, particularly in Africa, with a significant increase in overseas cement sales by 37% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 33.76 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11% [2]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.58 billion yuan, representing a 7% increase from 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.24 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.5 [2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s cement clinker sales volume for 2024 is expected to be 60.27 million tons, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, while overseas cement sales are projected at 16.2 million tons, an increase of 37% [4]. - The average selling price of cement clinker is forecasted to be 312 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.3 yuan year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin for cement clinker is expected to be 73 yuan per ton, down 8.1% year-on-year, but is anticipated to improve in Q4 2024 due to domestic price recovery [4]. Strategic Developments - The company has successfully launched several projects in Africa, including a new cement clinker production line in Mozambique and expansions in Zambia and South Africa, contributing to a total overseas operational capacity exceeding 25 million tons [4]. - The report indicates that the company’s integrated strategy is progressing steadily, with aggregate and commercial concrete revenues increasing by 5.2% and 10.0% year-on-year, respectively [4].

国内盈利抬升，海外风险下降 华新水泥(600801) ——华新水泥 2024 年报点评 | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 花健祎(分析师) | 杨冬庭(分析师) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 上次评级: | 增持 17.67 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976830 | 0755-23976858 | 0755-23976166 | | 上次预测: | 17.67 | | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | huajianyi@gtjas.com | yangdongting@gtjas.com | | | | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | S0880521010001 | S0880522080004 | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 12.97 | 本报告导读： 公司 2024 年报符合预期，24 年国内水泥销量同比下滑被海外强劲增量对冲，同时 国内外水泥盈利兑现能力均在修复通道上。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百 ...