Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the overall water inflow improved in 2024, but there was a significant decline in the fourth quarter. The company's total power generation for 2024 was approximately 295.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, while the fourth quarter saw a decrease of 17.60% compared to the previous year [7] - Financial expenses and investment income are expected to continue contributing to growth. The company anticipates a reduction in financial expenses by 600-800 million yuan annually due to debt repayment schedules, with interest expenses in the first half of 2024 at 5.704 billion yuan, down 676 million yuan year-on-year [7] - The report suggests that the company's stock price performance is primarily influenced by the credit spread, with expectations for further compression of equity spreads in a stable credit environment [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 29.16 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 713.49 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 700.05 billion yuan [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023 at 78.11 billion yuan, 2024 at 85.08 billion yuan, 2025 at 86.98 billion yuan, and 2026 at 87.62 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 50.04%, 8.92%, 2.23%, and 0.74% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 32.82 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 20.49% [6] - The report indicates that the company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 26.19 in 2023 to 19.67 in 2026 [6] Financial Statements Overview - The total assets of the company are projected to be 571.94 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 558.10 billion yuan by 2026 [8] - The total liabilities are expected to decline from 359.64 billion yuan in 2023 to 322.81 billion yuan in 2026 [8] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 201.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 222.59 billion yuan in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 841.98 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 325.20 billion yuan, up 19.36% year-on-year [7] - The company's total power generation for 2024 was 2959.04 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, although the fourth quarter saw a decline in generation due to reduced water levels [7] - The ongoing interest rate reduction cycle is expected to decrease financial costs, enhancing the company's performance [7] - The company has achieved its water storage targets for 2024, ensuring stable long-term power generation capacity despite short-term fluctuations in water levels [7] - The company maintains a commitment to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 70%, with a current dividend yield of 3.21% based on the closing price [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 325.20 billion, 345.19 billion, and 360.76 billion yuan respectively [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.33 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22 [6][7] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 59% for the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in 2024, with total revenue reaching 84.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.520 billion yuan, up 19.36% year-on-year [3]. - The increase in profitability is attributed to a significant rise in electricity generation from six hydropower stations, with a notable improvement in gross margin and net margin [4][5]. - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend distribution, emphasizing shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 2.1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5.138 billion yuan [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 84.198 billion yuan, operating profit of 39.648 billion yuan, and total profit of 38.866 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.87% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 61.19%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 42.78%, up 4.93 percentage points [4]. - The total electricity generation in 2024 was approximately 295.904 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, with specific stations showing significant growth [5]. - The company forecasts net profits of 32.455 billion yuan, 34.770 billion yuan, and 35.996 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.33 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.47 yuan [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [6][20]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 84.198 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.520 billion yuan, up 19.36% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company reported its highest performance since its listing in 2003, with a total profit of 38.866 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 19.87% year-on-year [5]. - The company has implemented its first interim dividend, distributing 0.21 yuan per share, which amounts to approximately 5.138 billion yuan in total [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 52,060; 2023A: 78,112; 2024E: 84,198; 2025E: 87,249; 2026E: 89,579 [8]. - Net Profit (in million yuan): 2022A: 21,309; 2023A: 27,239; 2024E: 32,520; 2025E: 35,137; 2026E: 37,920 [8]. - EPS (in yuan): 2022A: 0.87; 2023A: 1.11; 2024E: 1.33; 2025E: 1.44; 2026E: 1.55 [8]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 21.8 for 2024, 20.2 for 2025, and 18.7 for 2026 [6][8]. Operational Highlights - The company’s six hydropower stations achieved a total generation of 295.904 billion kWh in 2024, marking a 7.11% increase year-on-year [5]. - The report notes that the company’s performance is closely linked to the water flow in the Yangtze River, with 2024 experiencing abundant water flow overall, although Q4 saw a decline [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 32.52 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 19.36% year-on-year, driven by increased power generation from its six hydropower stations [7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a decline in net profit to 4.495 billion yuan, down 21.35% year-on-year, primarily due to weaker water inflow and a 17.60% decrease in power generation [7] - The average yield of the ten-year government bond decreased to 1.67%, creating a favorable environment for dividend benchmark assets like the company [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 84.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.75% [1] - The company's net profit for 2024 is adjusted to 32.52 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 19.39% for 2025 and 3.63% for 2026 [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.33 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.94 [1][7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of 85.24 billion yuan for 2025 and 85.88 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding net profits of 34.18 billion yuan and 35.43 billion yuan [1][8] - The projected net profit growth rates for 2025 and 2026 are 5.11% and 3.63%, respectively [7] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 28.97 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 708.84 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.37 and a net asset value per share of 8.60 yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Short-term performance fluctuations do not alter the long-term investment value of the company [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 84.198 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.525 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.36% [4] - The report highlights that the abundant water supply in 2024 positively impacted the company's power generation, which increased by 7.11% to 2,959.04 billion kWh [4] - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 32.5 billion, 33.7 billion, and 35.2 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.79x, 21.03x, and 20.15x [4] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 78.112 billion yuan - 2024E: 84.198 billion yuan (growth of 7.79%) - 2025E: 85.477 billion yuan (growth of 1.52%) - 2026E: 86.089 billion yuan (growth of 0.72%) [2][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 27.239 billion yuan - 2024E: 32.526 billion yuan (growth of 19.41%) - 2025E: 33.706 billion yuan (growth of 3.63%) - 2026E: 35.178 billion yuan (growth of 4.37%) [2][6] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 57.83% in 2023A, 57.96% in 2024E, 57.49% in 2025E, 57.84% in 2026E - Net Profit Margin: 34.87% in 2023A, 38.63% in 2024E, 39.43% in 2025E, 40.86% in 2026E [6] - **Debt and Equity**: - Total Assets: 571.943 billion yuan in 2023A, projected to grow to 587.130 billion yuan by 2026E - Total Liabilities: 359.644 billion yuan in 2023A, projected to decrease to 347.741 billion yuan by 2026E [5]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total profit of RMB 388.66 billion, an increase of RMB 64.42 billion, or 19.87% year-on-year[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 325.20 billion, up RMB 52.75 billion, representing a growth of 19.36% compared to the previous year[5] - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 1.3291, up RMB 0.2156, reflecting a growth of 19.36% year-on-year[5] - The total operating revenue for 2024 was RMB 841.98 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.75%[4] Return on Equity - The weighted average return on equity rose to 15.72%, an increase of 2.20 percentage points from the previous year[4] Assets and Equity - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 5,666.37 billion, a decrease of 1.10% from the beginning of the period[4] - The equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 2,111.52 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.81%[4] Operational Performance - The company’s six hydropower stations contributed to the increase in electricity generation, driving overall performance growth[5] Financial Data Caution - The financial data presented is preliminary and subject to adjustments based on the final audited report[6] - Investors are advised to be cautious due to potential discrepancies in the final audited data[6]

Company Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has undergone three rounds of value revaluation since its listing, each with significant implications for future investment [4][5] - The company's outperformance since 2016 is attributed to three segments of value revaluation, with the third segment still ongoing [7] - The first round of revaluation was driven by improved earnings predictability due to the "Four Reservoirs Joint Regulation" [14][15] - The second round of revaluation focused on cash flow stability and earnings resilience, particularly during market downturns [29][30] - The third round of revaluation is centered on the business model, likening the company's long-term outperformance to "differential rent" [48][49] Historical Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant outperformance compared to the CSI 300 index, especially after 2016 [6][7] - The first significant outperformance occurred from late 2015 to early 2016, driven by improved earnings predictability [8][13] - The second outperformance was observed from Q2 2018 to the end of the year, during which the company remained stable amid market volatility [23][24] - The third outperformance has been ongoing since 2022, driven by the company's low covariance with macroeconomic factors [42][43] Earnings and Cash Flow Analysis - The company's earnings stability improved significantly after the 2016 asset injection, with reduced volatility in ROE and more accurate earnings forecasts [16][17][18] - The company's cash flow management has been strong, with free cash flow consistently around 35 billion yuan, significantly higher than net profit [41] - The company has managed to offset the expiration of tax incentives through growth in investment income and savings in financial expenses [34][35] Business Model and Industry Position - The company's business model is likened to "differential rent," with its long-term outperformance attributed to being a low-cost supplier in a homogeneous product market [49][50] - The company's position in the power industry is unique, with a steep cost curve that allows it to maintain high margins despite market fluctuations [53][56] - The company's hydropower assets are among the highest quality in the industry, with a small but significant share of China's total installed capacity [58][59] Valuation and Future Outlook - The company's valuation is influenced by three key factors: the risk-free rate, credit spreads, and the equity risk premium [60][61] - The company's implied discount rate has been narrowing since 2023, but it has not yet broken through previous lows, indicating that the stock is not overvalued [62][63] - The company's future performance is expected to be driven by its core assets, with a focus on the stability and cost advantages of its hydropower operations [69][70] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 32.82 billion yuan, 34.66 billion yuan, and 36.27 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [72] - The current stock price implies a PE ratio of 22x, 20x, and 19x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [72]

证券代码：600900 证券简称：长江电力 公告编号：2025-004 中国长江电力股份有限公司 2024 年中期权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利 0.21 元（含税） 相关日期 二、 分配方案 1. 发放年度：2024 年中期 2. 分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任 公司上海分公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本 24,468,217,716 股为基数，每股派 发现金红利 0.21 元（含税），共计派发现金红利 5,138,325,720.36 元（含税）。 三、 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 日 | | Ａ股 | 2025/1/23 | － | 2025/1/24 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Despite the impact of water scarcity, the company's power generation in Q4 is expected to be 60.09 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 17.60%. However, the overall annual power generation is projected to grow by 7.11% year-on-year, supported by the transfer of equity and related debts from Hubei Qingneng Group, which will alleviate Q4 performance pressure. The company is expected to achieve steady annual performance growth [2][5] - The expected dividend yield, compared to the yield on ten-year government bonds, has reached the 94th percentile since 2023, indicating a strong investment value as a stable dividend stock [2][5] - The company is expected to have EPS of 1.32, 1.33, and 1.46 for 2024-2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.82, 21.67, and 19.72, respectively, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [10][11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company reported a total power generation of approximately 295.90 billion kWh for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [5] Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 78.11 billion yuan, with a steady increase expected in subsequent years [13] - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 33.03 billion yuan, with EPS expected to rise to 1.32 yuan [13] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the hydropower sector, benefiting from favorable water conditions and a strong dividend policy [10][11]