非银金融/保险Ⅱ 中国人寿（601628.SH） 业绩增长超预期，分红险转型成效明显 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 36.31 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 50.88/28.96 | | 总市值(亿元) | 10,262.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 7,561.02 | | 总股本(亿股) | 282.65 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 208.24 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 3.9 | 股价走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 中国人寿 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《审慎假设调整不改 EV 高增，负债 端延续稳健增长—中国人寿 2024年报 点评》-2025.3.28 《权益持仓高充分受益股市回暖，人 力规模和质效延续提升 —中国人寿 2024Q3 业绩点评》-2024.10.31 证书编号：S0790520050001 业绩增长超预期，分红险转型成效明显 （1）2025Q ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 中国人寿 2025 年一季报点评：利润增速亮 眼，产品转型成效明显 [Table_Title2] 中国人寿（601628.SH） | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 601628.SH | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 50.88/28.96 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿元) | 8,526.95 | | 最新收盘价： | 36.31 | 自由流通市值(亿元) | 7,561.02 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万股) | 20,824 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 中国人寿发布 2025 年一季报。2025Q1，公司实现营业收入 1,101.77 亿元，同比-8.9%；归母净利润 288.02 亿元，同比+39.5%；加权平均 ROE 同比+1.22pp 至 5.53%。2025Q1 公司 NBV 在可比口径下同比+4.8%。公司归母 净利润增速 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 中国人寿（601628.SH） 优于大市 负债结构优化，利润水平提升 2025 年一季度公司营收及成本表现分化。营收方面，一季度受债券市场利率 上行及权益市场震荡加剧影响，公司投资收益拖累营收表现，总营收同比下 降 8.9%。支出方面，2025 年以来，受益于医疗险及健康险赔付水平大幅优 化及市场利率波动影响，公司保险服务费用同比大幅下降 32.8%，带动公司 实现归母净利润 288.02 亿元，同比增长 39.5%。其中，因 VFA 保险合同采用 当期市场利率计量，因此一季度债券市场波动导致短期保险服务费用出现一 定波动。预计未来随着医保支付改革的推进，公司赔付水平将持续优化。 一季度保费收入同比增长 5.0%，增速优于行业。2025 年以来，行业受制于 保险需求透支、预定利率调降、缺乏爆款产品等因素影响，保费收入增速疲 软。在此背景下公司加大优质产品供给，把握差异化销售策略。此外，公司 持续推进代理人的"三化"转型，人均产能及队伍留存率同比提升。截至一 季度末，公司实现总保费收入 3544.1 亿元，同比增长 5.0%。其中，受益于 优质存量客户及产品体系，续期保 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国人寿（601628）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增速领先同业，产品转型成效明显 目标价：51.7 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 528567 | 502046 | 510364 | 514581 | | 同比增速(%) | 30.5 | -5.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | | 归母净利润(百万) | 106935 | 87430 | 90028 | 91854 | | 同比增速(%) | 108.9 | -18.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | | 每股盈利(元) | 3.78 | 3.09 | 3.19 | 3.25 | | 市盈率(倍) | 10.0 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.6 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 29 日收盘价 公司研究 保险Ⅲ 2025 ...

智通财经4月30日电，香港交易所信息显示，贝莱德在中国人寿的持股比例于04月24日从5.83%升至 6.10%。 ...

证券研究报告 中国人寿 (2628 HK/601628 CH) 港股通 1Q25：NBV 略增，保险服务业绩修复 华泰研究 季报点评 2025 年 4 月 30 日│中国内地/中国香港 保险 投资波动拖累盈利 1Q25 债券市场利率回升，权益市场震荡，交易类债券的价格波动或干扰了 公司的投资收益率。1Q25 年化总投资收益率和净投资收益率分别为 2.75% 和 2.60%，分别同比下降 0.48pps 和 0.22pps。投资业绩同比下滑 49%至 89.8 亿元，占税前利润的 27.5%，相比 1Q24 的 65.4%明显下降。公司负 债折现率没有平滑，资负对应较好，净资产环比增长 4.5%，利率带来的扰 动不明显。 盈利预测与估值 NBV 温和增长，保险服务业绩高增 考虑到投资波动和保险服务业绩的快速修复，我们调整 2025/2026/2027 年 EPS 预测至 RMB 3.30/2.94/3.29（调整幅度：-0.8/+22.1/+20.6%），维持 基于 DCF 估值法的 A/H 股目标价 RMB48/HKD20，维持"买入"评级。 1Q25 可比口径下 NBV 同比温和增长 4.8%，预定利率下调 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 保险Ⅱ 2、队伍：持续深化代理人队伍转型 2025Q1 末，国寿个险代理人数量 59.6 万，相比上年末减少 3.1%，规模总体保持稳 定；从队伍质态看，队伍的优增率、留存率同比有效提升。新型营销模式"种子计 划"有序推进，持续深耕。 展望未来，国寿稳步推进营销体系改革，持续推进销售队伍向专业化、职业化、综合 化转型，银保渠道有望进一步加大贡献，预计全年 NBV 保持平稳增长。 中国人寿(601628) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 30 日 营业支出减少驱动盈利超预期 ——中国人寿 2025 年一季报点评 投资要点 业绩概览 2025Q1，国寿归母净利润 288.02 亿元，同比+39.5%，超出预期，主要由于营业支出 中的保险服务费用大幅减少所致；营业收入 1101.77 亿元，同比-8.9%；加权 ROE 5.53%，同比提升 1.22pt；NBV 按重置后可比口径同比+4.8%，略低于预期。 核心关注 1、NBV：小幅增长，略低于预期 国寿 NBV 的小幅增长，推测主要来自于新业务价值率的小幅提升。2025Q1，国寿新 单保费 1074.34 亿元，同比下降 4.5 ...

Core Insights - China Life Insurance reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 28.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.5% [1] - The company's net assets at the end of Q1 2025 were 532.5 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.5% [1] - The new business value (NBV) grew by 4.8% year-on-year, despite a decline in new premium income [2] Financial Performance - The total premium income for Q1 2025 was 354.4 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, while new premium income was 107.4 billion yuan, down 4.5% [1][2] - The annualized net and total investment returns were 2.60% and 2.75%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1][2] - The decrease in insurance service fees by 32.8% year-on-year contributed to the net profit growth, alongside improved underwriting management and rising market interest rates [1] Product and Investment Strategy - The company optimized its product structure, with the proportion of floating income-type regular premium income reaching 51.7% in Q1 2025, which is expected to lower liability costs [2] - Despite market volatility impacting investment returns, the company maintained stable solvency ratios, with core and comprehensive solvency adequacy ratios at 146.1% and 199.3%, respectively [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a strong buy rating, with expectations for continued profit growth driven by a recovering equity market and dividend insurance sales [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 107.4 billion yuan, 108.2 billion yuan, and 110.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.4%, 0.7%, and 2.1% respectively [3] - The projected NBV for the same period is 36.7 billion yuan, 38.9 billion yuan, and 40.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.8%, 6.2%, and 4.9% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 39.5% in Q1 2025, reaching 288 billion yuan [7][14] - The new business structure has notably improved, with the proportion of floating income business premiums rising to 51.7% in Q1 2025, a substantial increase compared to previous periods [7] - The company is expected to benefit from its competitive advantages as a leading player in the life insurance industry, with forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders of 107.5 billion yuan, 112.0 billion yuan, and 120.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][18] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 344.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.53% in 2024 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 106.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 131.56% [1] - The company's total investment assets grew by 3.1% to 6.82 billion yuan, while total investment income decreased by 16.8% to 53.8 billion yuan [7] - The weighted return on equity (ROE) improved to 5.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Business Structure and Strategy - The company is actively diversifying its product offerings, focusing on floating income products, which are expected to enhance profitability [7] - The sales force remains stable, with a slight decrease in individual agents, but improvements in retention and recruitment rates are noted [7] - The "Seed Plan" initiative is being implemented to further enhance the quality and performance of the sales team [7] Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization is approximately 1,024.03 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.17 for 2023 [5][17] - The price-to-embedded value (PEV) is projected to be 0.68x for 2025, indicating that the stock is still undervalued [7][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 39.5% in Q1 2025, reaching 288 billion yuan [7][14] - The new business structure has notably improved, with the proportion of floating income business in the first-year premium income reaching 51.7%, a substantial increase compared to previous periods [7] - The company is expected to benefit from its competitive advantages as a leading player in the life insurance industry, with forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders of 107.5 billion yuan, 112.0 billion yuan, and 120.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][18] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 344.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.53% in 2024 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 106.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 131.56% [1] - The company's total investment assets have grown to 6.82 billion yuan, with a net investment income of 442 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [7] - The weighted return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 is reported at 5.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Business Structure and Strategy - The company is actively diversifying its product offerings and enhancing its marketing strategies, with a focus on floating income products [7] - The sales team remains stable, with a slight decrease in the number of individual agents, but improvements in retention and efficiency are noted [7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation of the sales force and the successful implementation of new marketing models [7] Valuation Metrics - The current market price is 36.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.17 for 2023 and projected P/E ratios of 9.58, 9.53, and 9.14 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][18] - The price-to-embedded value (PEV) is projected to be 0.68x for 2025, indicating that the stock is still undervalued [7][18]