2025 年 03 月 27 日 中国银行 (601988) ——息差降幅趋缓，业绩平稳提速 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 5.48 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 5.60/4.36 | | 市净率 | 0.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 6.52 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 1,154,995 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,368.70/10,643.82 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.18 | | 资产负债率% | 91.58 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 294,388/210,766 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/83,622 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01- ...

2025 年 3 月 27 日 公司研究 经营业绩稳中有进，资产质量保持稳健 ——中国银行（601988.SH）2024 年年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：5.48 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 2,943.88 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 16,132.45 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 4.05/5.6 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 8.72% | 股价相对走势 要点 事件： 3 月 26 日，中国银行发布 2024 年年度报告，全年实现营业收入 6301 亿，同比 增长 1.2%，归母净利润 2378 亿，同比增长 2.6%。加权平均净资产收益率 9.5%， 同比下降 0.62pct。 点评： 盈利增速较前三季度提升 2.1pct，经营业绩稳中有进。中行 2024 年营收、PPOP、 归母净利润同比增速分 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report on China Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in profit growth for China Bank in 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6% and a revenue growth of 1.2%. The improvement in asset quality and strong performance in overseas operations are also noted [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, China Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.6% year-on-year, while revenue grew by 1.2%. The non-performing loan ratio at the end of 2024 was 1.25%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the end of Q3 2024, and the provision coverage ratio rose to 201%, an increase of 2 percentage points [1][2][4] Profit Growth Recovery - The bank's revenue growth of 1.2% in 2024 showed a slight slowdown compared to previous quarters, primarily due to a decline in net interest margin. However, net profit growth of 2.6% was supported by cost control and increased tax contributions. The net interest margin for Q4 2024 was 1.35%, up 2 basis points from the previous quarter [2][3] Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan ratio improved slightly, with a decrease of 1 basis point in Q4 2024. The provision coverage ratio increased by 2 percentage points, indicating better asset quality overall. However, retail non-performing loans showed upward pressure, particularly in mortgages and business loans [4] Strong Overseas Business - China Bank's overseas operations showed robust performance, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% in the scale of overseas institutions, outpacing domestic growth. The non-performing loan generation rate for overseas institutions decreased by 22 basis points to 0.65%, and the pre-tax ROA for overseas operations was 0.99%, higher than domestic operations [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit growth for China Bank from 2025 to 2027 is -0.46%, 0.79%, and 4.74%, respectively. The target price is set at 6.03 CNY per share, corresponding to a PB ratio of 0.69 for 2025. The current price is 5.48 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 10% [6][12]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 27 日 中国银行（601988.SH） 单季利润高增，息差分红稳定 总量研究/银行 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2 14 34 相对表现 3 4 23 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Mar/24 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 (%) 中国银行 沪深300 投资建议：公司充分发挥全球化优势和综合化特色，持续推动改革发展，集团 经营管理保持稳中有进。2024 年全年累计每股分红0.24 元，分红率稳定在 30%， 最新收盘价对应 A、H 股动态股息率分别为 4.65%、5.92%，即将落地的国有大 行注资虽会对 EPS 有所摊薄，但也提升了长期分红的可持续性，配置价值仍在。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值： 当前股价：5.48 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 294388 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 210766 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1613.2 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1155.0 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 9.6 | | RO ...

针对未来发展，蔡钊表示中国银行将从多个方面着手，进一步扩大全球化优势。在重点业务方面， 该行将巩固扩大传统跨境业务优势，持续在结售汇、国际结算、贸易融资等领域发力拓展。同时，构建 新兴业务领域优势，加强对跨境电商、海外仓、中间品贸易等外贸新业态的主动服务，提升全品类金融 服务市场份额。 在重点区域方面，中国银行将继续优化区域布局，加快重点区域发展。具体措施包括持续巩固港澳 地区地位优势，推动中银香港从城市银行向区域性银行转型升级；深入推进国际金融中心业务发展，丰 富利率汇率等产品线，拓展银团、跨境并购、债券、现金管理等业务；加快培育中亚、拉美、中东等全 球化发展新增长极，有序扩大金融服务范围。 蔡钊强调，展望2025年，中国银行将继续把握好境外利率维持相对高位的有利环境，保持境外业务 对集团的重要贡献，并进一步巩固提升全球化经营优势。 关键词阅读：中国银行 中国银行副行长蔡钊：中行境外机构财务效益稳健 增长，2024年末总资产达1.15万亿美元 3月26日，中国银行（601988）副行长蔡钊在2024年业绩发布会上介绍了该行全球化经营的最新发 展情况。蔡钊表示，全球化一直是中行经营的重要组成部分及差异化优势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Bank's overdue loan growth has shown signs of moderation since the second half of 2024, with overall non-performing loan (NPL) generation remaining stable, although certain sectors are under pressure [2][3]. Group 1: Non-Performing Loans and Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, China Bank's NPL ratio stands at 1.25%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the previous year, while the provision coverage ratio has increased by 8.94 percentage points to 200.60% [2]. - The real estate sector continues to be the largest contributor to new domestic NPLs, but the risk is gradually being cleared, showing a year-on-year decline [2]. - Personal business loans and mortgage loans have seen a year-on-year increase in new NPLs, indicating ongoing asset quality pressure [2][3]. Group 2: Risk Management and Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2025, the primary risk management pressures for China Bank are expected to stem from the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market and structural employment issues [2][3]. - The bank plans to enhance credit risk management across all dimensions and cycles, focusing on proactive risk management and intelligent transformation [4]. - China Bank aims to adhere to the "four early" principles to strengthen risk foresight and management, while also addressing the challenges posed by the diversification and small-scale nature of non-performing assets [4].

净利润破2500亿，中国银行年度拟分红超700亿 3月26日，中国银行发布2024年度业绩公告，2024年营收6327.7亿元，净利润2527.2亿元，分别同比增长1.4%、2.6%。 2024年，中国银行净息差、中间业务依旧承压，净利息收入、手续费及佣金净收入同比分别减少3.8%、2.9%。另一方面，中国 银行2024年投资收益及贵金属销售均获得较快增长，其中投资收益同比增长64.7%至414.53亿元，贵金属销售收入增长40.6%至201.15 亿元，成为营收及利润增速核心驱动。 截至2024年末，中国银行员工合计31.28万人，同比增加5826人，工资、奖金、津贴和补贴全年支出775.46亿元，以此计算，人均 薪酬约24.8万元，同比增加1.3%。中国银行公告表示，2024年度拟合计分红713.6亿元（税前），扣除中期已派发的现金股利后， 2024年度末期拟派发现金股利为357.98亿元（税前）。 截至2024年末，中国银行资产总额35.06万亿元，较上年末增长8.1%，创历史新高；贷款总额21.1万亿元，存款总额24.2万亿元， 同比分别增加8.1%、5.7%，总资产、贷款、存款规模增速较上一年末的1 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Bank of China reported a net profit of 237.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.56%, while total revenue reached 632.77 billion yuan, up 1.38% from the previous year [3][17]. Financial Performance - The bank's total assets amounted to 35,061.30 billion yuan, an increase of 8.11% year-on-year, while total liabilities rose by 8.20% to 32,108.34 billion yuan [4]. - The net interest income decreased by 3.77% to 448.93 billion yuan, with interest income increasing by 2.16% to 1,071.54 billion yuan [8][11]. - Non-interest income grew by 15.87% to 181.16 billion yuan, driven by a significant increase in investment income [10][11]. Loan and Deposit Trends - The total amount of loans and advances reached 21,594.07 billion yuan, marking an 8.18% increase year-on-year [5]. - The bank's deposit balance increased by 5.66% to 24,202.59 billion yuan, with a notable rise in time deposits despite a general decline in interest rates [4][5]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly decreased to 1.25%, with the total NPL balance rising to 268.78 billion yuan [13][14]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio improved to 200.60%, indicating enhanced asset quality management [13]. Technology and Innovation - Bank of China invested 23.81 billion yuan in technology, representing 3.76% of its operating income, and increased its technology workforce by 2,234 employees [16]. - The bank actively explored the application of artificial intelligence, enhancing its operational efficiency and customer experience through various technological innovations [16]. Market Outlook - The bank's profitability may face pressure in 2025 due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could impact foreign currency asset yields [17].

Core Viewpoint - China Bank reported a net profit of 237.84 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, while the real estate sector remains the largest source of new non-performing loans domestically [3][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, China Bank achieved operating revenue of 630.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.16% [3]. - The net interest income was 448.93 billion yuan, down 3.77% year-on-year, with interest income from loans and advances at 745.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7% [4][5]. - Non-interest income reached 181.16 billion yuan, up 15.87% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in other non-interest income [4][5]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the total amount of non-performing loans was 268.78 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the previous year [6][7]. - The non-performing loan ratio for the real estate sector was 4.94%, the highest among all industries, although it showed a year-on-year decline [7][8]. Capital Adequacy - By the end of 2024, China Bank's total assets reached 35.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.11% year-on-year, with total liabilities of 32.11 trillion yuan, also up by 8.2% [5][6]. - The capital adequacy ratio stood at 18.76%, with the core tier one capital ratio at 12.20%, both showing improvements from the previous year [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a downgrade from a previous rating [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 630.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, and a net profit of 237.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a slight revenue decline of 0.3% but an 8.8% increase in net profit [1][4]. - The contribution from overseas business profits increased, with total profit amounting to 295 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.22% year-on-year. Domestic profits fell by 5.7%, contributing 73.3% to the total, while overseas profits grew by 17.5%, contributing 26.7% [1]. - Non-interest income grew significantly by 15.9% in 2024, accounting for 28.8% of total revenue, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year. However, net income from fees and commissions decreased by 2.9% [2]. - The asset quality remains stable with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25%, down 2 basis points from the beginning of the year, and a provision coverage ratio of 200.6%, up 9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 630.1 billion yuan, a 1.2% increase from 2023, and a net profit of 237.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.6% growth. The return on average assets (ROAA) was 0.75%, and return on average equity (ROAE) was 9.50%, both showing slight declines [1][4]. - The total assets reached 35.06 trillion yuan, with loans totaling 21.54 trillion yuan, marking growth of 8.1% and 8.2% respectively from the beginning of the year [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 241.6 billion yuan, 249.4 billion yuan, and 267.3 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 3.2%, and 7.2% [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.6x for 2025, 6.4x for 2026, and 6.0x for 2027, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.59x, 0.55x, and 0.52x respectively [3]. Asset Quality - The company maintains a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 200.6%, indicating strong risk management practices [2][4].