Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the facial skincare industry, particularly in the e-commerce segment, with a projected growth rate of 19.4% year-on-year [9]. Core Insights - The facial skincare category is leading the beauty and skincare market, with significant sales growth on e-commerce platforms, especially on Douyin, which is expected to surpass 1340.39 billion in sales by 2024 [9][10]. - Tmall's market share is declining, projected to drop to 30.5% by 2024, while Douyin is rapidly gaining market share [9][10]. - The report highlights various product categories within facial skincare, noting that while some categories are experiencing growth, others are facing declines [12][14][16]. E-commerce Market Trends - The overall e-commerce market for facial skincare is expected to grow by 19.4% year-on-year, with Douyin becoming the leading platform [9]. - Tmall's sales are projected to decline, while Douyin's sales are expected to grow significantly, reaching 1340.39 billion by 2024 [9][10]. - The report provides detailed sales figures for major platforms, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards Douyin [10]. Product Category Performance - The report categorizes facial skincare products into several key segments, including serums, creams, masks, and cleansers, with varying growth rates across these categories [8][12][14][16]. - Specific product categories such as lotions and toners are showing positive growth, while others like facial scrubs and certain masks are declining [12][14][16]. - Douyin shows remarkable growth in categories like facial care sets and liquid serums, with growth rates of 48.6% and 54.0% respectively [16][17]. Brand Performance - The report lists top-performing brands in the facial skincare market, highlighting significant sales figures and growth rates for brands like Proya, L'Oreal, and Estee Lauder [19][20][21]. - Proya is noted for its strong growth, with a sales increase of 103.9%, while other brands like Sk-II and Olay are experiencing declines [19][20][21]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with emerging brands gaining traction alongside established players [19][20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Proya has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 4.67%, and a significant rise of 7.50% over the past 20 days, despite a decline of 7.75% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 14, Proya's stock price increased by 2.01%, reaching 71.68 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.97 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.70% [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 6.37 million CNY, with large orders accounting for 28.01% of purchases and 24.89% of sales [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Proya achieved a revenue of 7.098 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.026 billion CNY, up by 2.65% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Proya has distributed a total of 2.125 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.540 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Proya had 84,100 shareholders, an increase of 39.53% from the previous period, with an average of 4,708 circulating shares per shareholder, down by 28.23% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 27.11 million shares, a decrease of 20.41 million shares from the previous period [3].

Summary of China Cosmetics Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The China cosmetics sector is expected to experience a reset for higher-quality growth in 2026, moving away from reliance on high-cost Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) and focusing on popular core SKUs. This shift has led to a contraction in Net Profit Margin (NPM) due to deleveraging impacts, despite improvements in Return on Investment (ROI) [1][2]. Key Trends and Insights - **Consumer Acquisition Costs**: Monitoring new consumer acquisition costs will be critical, especially as channel migration benefits diminish and the ingredient cycle remains ambiguous. Anti-involution policies will also play a significant role [1]. - **Branding Strategy**: Branding is anticipated to be the most effective strategy for consumer engagement and new product launches in 2026. Companies with high repurchase rates and cost-efficient omni-channel strategies are better positioned for success [1][2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The cosmetics market is expected to grow at a normalized rate, with growth projected at less than 1x GDP growth. The market is forecasted to see a 2.1% increase in beauty spending in 2026, with a mix of onshore and offshore market performance [17][18]. Company-Specific Insights - **Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGP)**: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy with a target price increase from HK$89 to HK$105, reflecting a 27% upside. The company is noted for strong branding and a balanced channel presence, with a forecasted sales and net income CAGR of 23% and 22% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][9]. - **Giant Biogene**: Maintained as Buy, with a target price lowered from HK$71 to HK$46, indicating a 36% upside. The company is expected to recover with new skincare products and a focus on medical aesthetics, projecting sequential growth of -8%/+12%/+17% YoY for 1H26E/2H26E/2027E [2][9]. - **Shanghai Jahwa**: Target price reduced from RMB 31 to RMB 28, with a 22% upside. The company is on a turnaround trajectory with improving margins and cash flow [2][9]. - **Proya Cosmetics**: Remains Neutral as the company is expected to moderate organic growth while awaiting more execution on white space exploration [2][9]. - **Botanee Biotech**: Neutral rating with early signs of a potential turnaround but lacking clear growth drivers [2][9]. - **Bloomage Biotech**: Maintained as Sell due to downside risks in skincare and muted growth in medical aesthetics amid a mature product cycle [2][9]. Market Performance and Projections - **E-commerce Trends**: Tmall is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by anti-involution measures. Douyin's performance has been softer than expected, with a significant decline in KOL channel performance [19][21]. - **Sales Growth Expectations**: The cosmetics sector is projected to see sustained GMV growth on Tmall, while Douyin is expected to experience a narrowing gap in growth rates compared to Tmall [20][21]. Conclusion - The China cosmetics sector is poised for a shift towards higher-quality growth in 2026, with branding and strategic channel management becoming increasingly important. Companies that adapt to these changes and focus on core products are likely to outperform in the evolving market landscape [1][2][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [3][56]. Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to benefit from increased policy support, with leading companies poised for growth [1][3]. - The overall consumption environment in 2025 is projected to be stable, with structural highlights emerging, particularly as consumption policies become clearer [1][12]. - The report identifies two main trends for 2026: the continuation of new consumption trends and the anticipated reversal of challenges faced by traditional consumption [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - In 2025, the SW retail index increased by 11.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.1 percentage points, while the beauty care index rose by only 0.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 17.35 percentage points [1][16]. - The retail sector's performance was initially strong in the first half of 2025 but faced a decline in the second half due to a shift in market focus towards technology [1][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several sectors for investment: 1. **Gold and Jewelry**: The sector is entering a consumption peak, with low valuations and expected growth in same-store sales and channel expansion. Recommended companies include潮宏基, 菜百股份, and 周大福 [3][56]. 2. **Beauty and Personal Care**: The sector is returning to low valuations, with traditional leaders showing signs of recovery. Recommended companies include 上美股份 and 珀莱雅 [3][56]. 3. **Offline Retail**: The end of the year is a peak sales period, with potential positive impacts from CPI recovery. Recommended companies include 名创优品 and 永辉超市 [3][56]. 4. **Cross-border E-commerce**: Companies are expected to benefit from reduced external tariff impacts, with recommendations including 小商品城 and 安克创新 [3][56]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, all rated "Outperform" for 2025 and 2026, including 潮宏基, 上美股份, and 珀莱雅, with respective PE ratios indicating growth potential [5][59]. Recent Industry Data Tracking - As of November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The growth was influenced by high base effects and the timing of promotional events [26][30]. - Online retail sales for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 144,582 billion yuan, growing by 9.1%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [28][30]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - Recent policy initiatives emphasize the importance of boosting consumer spending, with a focus on increasing the consumption rate and stabilizing demand through various measures [13][24]. - The report anticipates that traditional consumption leaders will gradually improve their performance as they adapt to new market conditions and innovate their product offerings [24][20].

Core Insights - The beauty industry is undergoing a significant transformation as consumers prioritize product ingredients and efficacy over marketing narratives and brand stories [1][2] - The competition among companies is shifting from traditional marketing to a focus on scientific validation and technical authority, particularly regarding core ingredients [1][3] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The battle for defining the "ingredient king" is exemplified by the prolonged conflict between Huaxi Biological and Juzhi Biological over recombinant collagen, highlighting the industry's shift towards scientific discourse [1][2] - Companies are increasingly engaged in disputes over intellectual property and scientific narratives, as seen in the conflict between medical company Aierfu and skincare brand Zhanmeiya, which revolves around the storytelling of scientific advancements [3] Group 2: Market Competition - The competition for established, cash-generating scientific products is illustrated by the dispute between Shuiyang Co. and Ruoyu Chen over the agency rights for the Spanish brand "Mestique," which has shown remarkable growth in the Chinese market [5][6] - The financial performance of companies varies significantly, with some experiencing revenue growth alongside increased R&D spending, while others face declining revenues despite high R&D investments [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - A significant shift in consumer preferences is noted, with 58.8% of consumers prioritizing product ingredients in their purchasing decisions, indicating a growing demand for transparency and efficacy [15][21] - The rise of the "ingredient party" has led to increased scrutiny of product claims, pushing companies to provide credible testing reports and validate their ingredients [15][21] Group 4: Future Trends - The beauty industry's future is marked by a "scientific arms race," with brands striving to establish their authority in scientific research and ingredient validation [8][16] - Companies are exploring unique natural ingredients and integrating skincare with makeup, reflecting a trend towards holistic beauty solutions [20][21]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued four inquiries to Proya regarding its upcoming secondary listing in Hong Kong, focusing on the use of raised funds, user information collection, advertising business operations, and foreign investment access [2][3] - Proya aims to enhance its international market presence and financing capabilities through this secondary listing, with plans for overseas acquisitions, particularly in the baby care, fragrance, and men's skincare sectors [3] - The CSRC has requested Proya to clarify whether its fundraising involves overseas investments and if it has completed the necessary approval processes [2][4] Group 2 - Proya's latest Q3 2025 report indicates a revenue of 7.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.026 billion yuan, up 2.65% [4] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters reached 73.69%, an increase of 3.62 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - The CSRC is also examining Proya's compliance with foreign investment regulations, particularly concerning its subsidiaries' business scopes that may intersect with restricted areas in the "Negative List for Foreign Investment Access (2024 Edition)" [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the successful IPO of Shaanxi Tourism, which leverages its rich tourism resources and strong operational experience to build competitive advantages through a combination of performance-driven tourism, cable car operations, and dining services [22][24][34] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the cultural tourism industry amid ongoing trends to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, suggesting that Shaanxi Tourism's future growth will be supported by new performance projects and cable car capacity upgrades [36] Summary by Sections Retail and Social Services Market Review - The retail and social services indices rose by 4.23% and 4.71% respectively during the week of January 5 to January 9, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.82% [12][14] - Among the sub-sectors, the supermarket segment showed the highest growth, with an increase of 8.18% year-to-date [15][17] Industry Dynamics: Shaanxi Tourism - Shaanxi Tourism, a leading regional tourism company, successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on January 6, 2026, becoming the first A-share listed company of the year [22] - The company reported significant revenue contributions from its tourism performance and cable car operations, with a net profit margin and gross profit margin remaining high post-pandemic [24][27] - Revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows that tourism performance accounted for 60.2%, cable car operations for 35.8%, and dining services for 4.0% [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, highlighting companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji, which are expected to benefit from market trends [39] - It also suggests monitoring offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, with specific recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [39] - In the cosmetics sector, the report emphasizes brands that capture emotional value and innovate with safe ingredients, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Proya [40]

Market Overview - The cosmetics sector increased by 1.29% on January 9, with Shuiyang Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shuiyang Co., Ltd. (300740) closed at 25.65, up 5.90% with a trading volume of 223,500 shares and a transaction value of 561 million yuan [1] - Qingsong Co., Ltd. (300132) closed at 8.70, up 2.47% with a trading volume of 253,700 shares [1] - Beitaini (300957) closed at 41.20, up 1.85% with a trading volume of 163,500 shares and a transaction value of 261 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Furuida (600223) at 7.53 (+1.76%), Jiaheng Jiahua (300955) at 39.89 (+1.68%), and Huaye Fragrance (300886) at 26.64 (+1.06%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The cosmetics sector experienced a net outflow of 31.72 million yuan from institutional investors and 34.45 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 66.18 million yuan [2] - Individual stock capital flows indicate that Qindao Jinwang (002094) had a net inflow of 13.96 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 1.23 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Other stocks like Qingsong Co., Ltd. (300132) and Beitaini (300957) also showed mixed capital flows, with varying levels of net inflows and outflows from different investor categories [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to considering investor interests and returns in decision-making processes, including governance and daily operations [1] Group 1: Dividend Policy - The company plans to complete the implementation of the 2025 semi-annual equity distribution by October 2025, aiming to increase both the frequency and proportion of dividends [1] Group 2: Share Buyback - In December 2025, the company intends to use its own funds to conduct a share buyback through centralized bidding, reflecting confidence in its future development and recognition of its value [1] Group 3: Operational Strategy - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness and profitability through effective management, thereby increasing investment value and shareholder return capabilities [1] - The company is focused on improving investor return levels and overall satisfaction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that the appointment of its directors and senior management strictly adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring a qualified and experienced leadership team [1] Group 1 - The company follows the provisions of the Company Law and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Listing Rules in appointing its management [1] - The management team has diverse backgrounds in finance, accounting, and supply chain, indicating a well-rounded expertise [1] - The leadership possesses rich industry experience and an international perspective, aligning core competencies with their respective positions [1]