Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On January 16, the liquidity gradually returned to a loose state, with major repurchase rates declining; the bond market generally warmed up; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues saw price increases; yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly increased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The central bank and the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate mortgages to no less than 30% on January 17 [4]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration extended the tax incentives for public rental housing until December 31, 2027, on January 16 [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability, strengthening monitoring, and guiding long - term investment at its 2026 system work meeting on January 15 [5]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration called for promoting the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and supporting the resolution of financing platform debt risks at its 2026 regulatory work meeting on January 15 [5]. - **International News** - On January 16, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman called on the Fed to be ready to cut interest rates if the labor market does not improve sustainably [7]. - **Commodities** - On January 16, international crude oil futures prices turned up while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI February crude oil futures rose $0.25, or 0.42%, to $59.44 per barrel; Brent March crude oil futures rose 0.58% to $64.13 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $4597 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly increase of 2.12%; NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.11% to $3.109 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations** - On January 16, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 86.7 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 52.7 billion yuan after 34 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On January 16, the liquidity gradually loosened, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 4.73bp to 1.320%, and DR007 dropped 5.94bp to 1.443% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Yield Trends of Cash Bonds** - On January 16, due to the loosening liquidity and the decline of the stock market, the bond market generally warmed up. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 1.20bp to 1.8430%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250215 dropped 0.40bp to 1.9640% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Results** - The 3 - year 25 Jinchu 13 (Increment 7) was issued with a scale of 6 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.6176%, a full - field multiple of 4.66, and a marginal multiple of 5.32 [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Abnormal Secondary - Market Transactions** - On January 16, the trading prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "21 Vanke 06" rose over 10%, "23 Vanke 01" rose over 21%, and "23 Vanke MTN003" rose over 39% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Shenye Group cancelled the issuance of "26 Shenye MTN001" due to market reasons. Moody's revoked Hailong Holdings' "Ca" corporate family rating at the company's request. Fitch downgraded Wanda Commercial and Wanda Hong Kong's long - term foreign - currency issuer ratings to "RD" and then upgraded them to "CC". Guang'an Aizhong expected its net profit in 2025 to be negative. Gome Electric was listed as a dishonest executor with a total execution target of 116 million yuan. The Shanghai Stock Exchange publicly condemned Jiangsu Baoguangli Video Technology Group for failing to disclose its interim report on time [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On January 16, the three major A - share indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index dropped 0.26%, 0.18%, and 0.20% respectively, with a total trading volume of 3.06 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond market indices rose collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index, and Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.47%, 0.59%, and 0.31% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 103.48 billion yuan, an increase of 8.109 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among 388 convertible bond issues, 236 rose, 139 fell, and 13 remained flat [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On January 17, Changgao Electric and Haitian Co., Ltd. received CSRC approval for convertible bond issuance. On January 16, Meinuo Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision of the conversion price; Changqi Convertible Bond, Oujing Convertible Bond, Jidong Convertible Bond, Aojia Convertible Bond, and Mars Convertible Bond were about to trigger the downward - revision clause of the conversion price. Guanglian Convertible Bond, Jiamei Convertible Bond, and Fumiao Convertible Bond announced early redemption; Huazheng Convertible Bond and Daotong Convertible Bond were expected to trigger the early - redemption clause [26]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On January 16, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 3bp to 3.59%, and the 10 - year yield rose 7bp to 4.24%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield spread widened by 4bp to 65bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 101bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 4bp to 2.33% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market** - On January 16, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased. The 10 - year German government bond yield rose 3bp to 2.84%, and those of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 3bp, 1bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively [25]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds (as of the close on January 16)** - The prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the price of New World Development's bond rose 13.6%, while that of Bilibili's bond fell 1.3% [27].

Group 1: Domestic News - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration announced that the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans will be adjusted to no less than 30% [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration extended tax incentives for public rental housing until December 31, 2027, including exemptions from urban land use tax and stamp duty for related entities [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability and preventing large fluctuations, while promoting long-term investment and value investing [3] - The Financial Regulatory Administration called for the normalization of a coordinated financing mechanism for urban real estate and effective risk resolution for financing platforms [3] Group 3: International News - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman suggested that the Fed should be prepared to lower interest rates if the labor market does not show significant improvement, while expressing optimism about easing inflation pressures [4] Group 4: Bond Market - On January 16, the bond market showed signs of warming, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 1.20 basis points to 1.8430% [8] - The secondary market for credit bonds saw significant price deviations, with "21 Vanke 06" rising over 10% and "23 Vanke 01" increasing by over 21% [10] Group 5: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw major indices rise, with the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by 0.47% and trading volume reaching 103.48 billion yuan, up 8.11 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17] - New listings such as Aohong Convertible Bond and Shuangle Convertible Bond hit the upper limit, while some existing bonds like Xinzhi Convertible Bond fell over 10% [17]

天眼查天眼风险信息显示，近日，万科A（000002）、长沙市万科企业有限公司新增一则被执行人信 息，执行标的10.8亿余元，执行法院为湖南省长沙市中级人民法院。万科企业股份有限公司成立于1984 年5月，法定代表人为郁亮，注册资本约110亿人民币，经营范围包括兴办实业、进出口业务、房地产开 发等。股东信息显示，该公司由深圳市地铁集团有限公司、香港中央结算（代理人）有限公司、中国证 券金融股份有限公司等共同持股。 ...

Group 1 - Vanke bonds continue to rise, with "22 Vanke 02" increasing nearly 13% [1] - "22 Vanke 06" has risen over 11% [1] - "22 Vanke 04" has increased more than 6% [1] Group 2 - "23 Vanke 01" and "21 Vanke 06" have both risen over 2% [1] - "21 Vanke 04" has increased more than 1% [1]

责任编辑：赵思远 责任编辑：赵思远 1月19日，万科债延续涨势，"22万科02"涨13%，"22万科06"涨超11%，"22万科04"涨超6%，"23万科 01"和"21万科06"涨超2%，"21万科04"涨超1%。 1月19日，万科债延续涨势，"22万科02"涨13%，"22万科06"涨超11%，"22万科04"涨超6%，"23万科 01"和"21万科06"涨超2%，"21万科04"涨超1%。 ...

Group 1 - Vanke's domestic bonds continued to rise, with "22 Vanke 02" increasing by 14% [1] - "22 Vanke 06" rose over 11%, while "22 Vanke 04" increased by more than 6% [1] - "23 Vanke 01" saw an increase of nearly 3%, and "21 Vanke 06" rose by over 2% [1] - "21 Vanke 04" experienced an increase of more than 1% [1]

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月16日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了867亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量867亿元，中标量867亿 元。Wind数据显示，当日340亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放527亿元。当周实现净投放8128亿元。 Wind数据显示，1月19日至23日当周，央行公开市场将有9515亿元逆回购到期。此外，23日还将有1500亿元国库现金定存到期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面逐渐恢复宽松，DR001加权平均利率降超4bp至1.32%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价也滑至1.30%， 供给在千亿元左右；非银机构质押信用债借入隔夜，最新报价集中在1.45%附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.64%。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.63%附近，较上日小幅下行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行 （*数据来源：Wind-成交统 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous improvement in the real estate sector, driven by favorable policies and a strengthening of the second-hand housing market [1] - The overall industry rating remains at "Buy," consistent with previous assessments [2] Group 1: Policy Developments - Central government policies are increasingly supportive, with the Ministry of Finance announcing an extension of the tax exemption policy for second-hand housing transactions until the end of 2027 [5][14] - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and a decrease in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][15] - The publication of multiple articles in "Qiushi" magazine indicates a heightened focus on real estate and urban development, suggesting a strong policy commitment [5][17] Group 2: Market Performance - The second-hand housing market has shown significant improvement, with a 40.3% year-on-year increase in transactions for the first 15 days of January, despite a 10% decline compared to the previous week [5][23] - New housing transactions remain low, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in sales volume, although there was a 9.9% week-on-week increase [5][23][26] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in 33 cities increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in prices [5][25] Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - The total land transfer revenue remains low, with a 25.2% week-on-week decline and a 54.3% year-on-year decrease, reflecting weak market conditions [5][24] - There are localized instances of structural premiums in third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting potential opportunities despite overall market weakness [5][24] Group 4: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the real estate sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable valuations projected for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The report includes detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, which suggest potential for growth in the sector [6][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment of interest - rate bonds was strong with slightly declining yields, and credit bond yields generally followed suit. The 10 - year ultra - long - term credit bonds performed strongly, and the spreads of secondary perpetual (Two - Perpetual, or "Two - Yong") bonds narrowed across the board. The excess spreads of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds decreased slightly. [3][4] - Vanke's debt extension plan was better than expected, leading to an increase in the secondary prices of its outstanding bonds. However, due to the lack of unexpected industry support policies and the will to ensure rigid payment, the market remains cautious about central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds with the "high - debt, high - leverage, and high - turnover" model. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards real - estate bonds in the short term. [5][40] - After the New Year, the performance of Two - Yong bonds was strong. The growth of dividend - insurance premium income may have increased the demand for ultra - long - term Two - Yong bonds, causing a significant decline in yields. Considering the central bank's strong intention to support the market, there may still be room for the spreads of Two - Yong bonds to compress. [5][40] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bonds Follow Interest Rates Downward, Ultra - Long - Term Credit Bonds Perform Strongly - Interest - rate bond yields: The yields of 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, 4BP, 3BP, and 1BP respectively, while the 1Y yield increased by 2BP. [3][11] - Credit bond yields: Overall, they followed the decline in interest rates. The yields of 1Y AA+ and above - grade credit bonds remained flat, while those of other grades decreased by 1BP; 3Y AA+ and above - grade yields decreased by 1BP, and other grades decreased by 3 - 4BP; 5Y AA+ grade yields decreased by 5BP, and other grades decreased by 1 - 2BP; 7Y credit bond yields of all grades decreased by 2 - 3BP; 10Y AA+ and above - grade yields decreased by 4 - 5BP, and AA grade decreased by 2BP. [3][11] - Credit spreads: Generally stable, with the 10 - year ultra - long - term credit performing strongly. The spreads of 1Y all grades narrowed by 1 - 2BP; 3Y AA+ and above spreads remained flat, and other grades narrowed by 2 - 3BP; 5Y AA+ spreads narrowed by 2BP, and other grades widened by 1 - 2BP; 7Y AAA spreads remained flat, and other grades widened by 1BP; 10Y AA+ and above spreads narrowed by 3 - 4BP, and AA grade spreads narrowed by 1BP. [3][11] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Mostly Decline by 0 - 1BP - By external rating: The credit spreads of external - rated AAA - level urban investment platforms generally remained flat, while those of AA and AA+ levels generally decreased by 1BP. [4][16] - By administrative level: The credit spreads of provincial and municipal - level platforms generally remained flat compared with last week, while those of district - county - level platforms decreased by 1BP. [4][22] 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Remain Stable Overall, Vanke's Spreads Compress Significantly - Real - estate bonds: Central - state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads widened by 9BP, state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads widened by 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads converged significantly by 451BP, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased by 14BP. Vanke's spreads decreased by 4285BP. [4][27] - Other industrial bonds: AAA - grade coal bond spreads remained flat, and other grades decreased by 1BP; AA+ steel bond spreads decreased by 3BP, and AAA remained flat; the spreads of all grades of chemical bonds remained flat. [4][27] 3.4 Two - Yong Bond Spreads Narrow Across the Board, Yields of Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Decline Significantly - 1Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 1BP, and spreads compressed by 2BP. - 3Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 5 - 6BP, and spreads compressed by 3 - 5BP. - 5Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 5 - 6BP, and spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP. [35] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Decrease Slightly - Industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads converged by 0.43BP to 14.41BP, at the 36.98% quantile since 2015. - Industrial 5Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads remained the same as last week at 13.20BP, at the 32.28% quantile since 2015. - Urban investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads decreased by 0.13BP to 4.51BP, at the 3.52% quantile. - Urban investment 5Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads decreased by 0.79BP to 10.13BP, at the 18.64% quantile. [38] 3.6 Vanke's Extension Plan is Better than Expected, Two - Yong Bond Spreads Still Have Compression Space - Vanke: Its debt extension plan was better than expected, and the secondary prices of its outstanding bonds increased. However, due to the lack of relevant policies, the market is still cautious about central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, and it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term. [5][40] - Two - Yong bonds: After the New Year, they performed strongly. The growth of dividend - insurance premium income may have increased the demand for ultra - long - term Two - Yong bonds. Considering the central bank's support, there may still be room for spread compression. [5][40] 3.7 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads, Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. - Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Huafu Securities Research Institute, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. - Sample selection criteria: Industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. Bonds with a remaining term of less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years are excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implied debt ratings. [46]

以下文章来源于饭统戴老板 ，作者徐嘉/戴老板 饭统戴老板 . 有趣且深度的硬核财经 也不会有时间做出改变了。 文 ｜ 徐嘉 戴老板 编辑 ｜ 徐嘉 来源｜ 范统戴老板（ID： worldofboss） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 见段永平的这天，王石穿了一件粉白色的格纹衬衫。 近1小时里，他几乎没有任何肢体动作，只是两手交叉在腹前，不像田朴珺一样跷二郎腿，也不像段永平时而翻动手掌。只有一次，他罕见地挥舞小臂， 是为了讲和田朴珺恋爱时滑雪的故事，直到年轻妻子的激动语调两次压过他的表达欲，他才又恢复沉默。 这是2025年12月初播出的《共同说 第三季》录制现场，王石坐在千亿身价的段永平，和小自己30岁的妻子兼主持人田朴珺之间，充当陪衬。在这档播了4 年的访谈节目中，他作为丈夫，不仅负责给田朴珺摇人、做嘉宾，还需要给节目赞助商拍切片广告。 再怎么拧巴，75岁的王石也不会再变了， 王石两口子共同出镜的节目很多，通常是此种画风—— 王石拼命向观众强调自己没老，田朴珺拼命向观众强调自己不靠王石，观众则看到力竭。 但在段 永平面前，王石似乎放弃了雄竞执念，满头的白发让他无法掩饰苍老，土气的衬衫让他像个听课的学生。 尤其 ...