Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market has experienced a structural rebound in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 25, with an overall average price of 8,893 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day, marking a five-day high [1] - The market shows a mixed performance with six products increasing in price and four decreasing, indicating ongoing structural adjustments within the industry [1] Price Movements - The premium Moutai (Jingpin) saw the largest increase, rising by 16 yuan to 2,356 yuan per bottle [3] - Wuliangye (Pu Wu 58) increased by 10 yuan to 802 yuan per bottle, contributing significantly to the average price rise [3] - Other notable increases include Guojiao 1573 (+6 yuan), Qinghua Lang (+4 yuan), and slight increases for Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Shuijing Jian Nan Chun (+1 yuan each) [1][4] Declines in Prices - The price of Xijiu Junpin decreased by 6 yuan to 646 yuan per bottle [4] - Qinghua Fen 20 dropped by 5 yuan, while Feitian Moutai faced a slight decline of 4 yuan due to consistent supply from the iMoutai platform [1][4] - Other declines include Gujing Gong Gu 20, which fell by 3 yuan [4]

【导读】洋河股份公布现金分红回报规划（2025年度-2027年度） 中国基金报记者郑俊婷 1月23日晚间，洋河股份（证券代码：002304）连发3条重要公告，分别指向2025年业绩预告、现金分红回报规划、高管人事调整。 其中，现金分红回报规划尤为引人注目。洋河股份表示，在满足《公司章程》利润分配政策的前提下，2025年度-2027年度，公司每年度现金分红总额不 低于当年实现归母净利润的100%。 2025年第四季度减亏 根据业绩预告，洋河股份预计2025年实现归母净利润21.16亿元-25.24亿元，同比下降62.18%-68.30%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 盈利: 211,578 万元-252,356 万元 | 盈利:667,338.86 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:62.18%-68.30% | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 盈利: 185,318 万元-226,096 万元 | 盈利:683,523.56 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:66.92%-72.89% | | | 基本每股收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. announced a cash dividend return plan for the years 2025 to 2027, committing to a total cash dividend amount of no less than 100% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders [2][10]. Financial Performance - For the year 2025, Yanghe Co., Ltd. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.116 billion to 2.524 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 62.18% to 68.30% [6][7]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 1.853 billion and 2.261 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 66.92% to 72.89% compared to the previous year [7]. - Basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 1.4045 yuan and 1.6752 yuan, down from 4.4299 yuan in the same period last year [7]. Market Challenges - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with intensified competition and challenges such as reduced market demand, weakened brand momentum, increased channel inventory, and declining channel profits [7]. - The company plans to focus on inventory reduction, price stabilization, and enhancing brand momentum in its marketing efforts for 2025, which will significantly impact current profitability [7]. Cash Dividend Plan - The cash dividend return plan for 2025 to 2027 differs significantly from the previous plan for 2024 to 2026, which stipulated a minimum cash dividend of 70% of the annual net profit and at least 7 billion yuan [11]. - The adjustment in the cash dividend plan is likely due to the anticipated performance challenges in 2025, which would make adhering to the previous plan burdensome for the company [11]. Management Changes - Yanghe Co., Ltd. announced the resignation of its Vice Chairman and President, Zhong Yu, due to retirement, after over 10 years in the role [14]. - Gu Yu has been appointed as both Chairman and President, which is expected to facilitate smoother execution of the company's strategy amid declining performance over the past two years [15]. Stock Information - As of January 23, the stock price of Yanghe Co., Ltd. was 62.55 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 94.2 billion yuan [16].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment phase in 2025, characterized by multiple pressures including policy constraints, weak consumption, high inventory, and price inversion [1] - Yanghe Co. is proactively addressing these challenges with a comprehensive adjustment strategy focused on stabilizing prices, reducing inventory, and promoting sales, with expected results to be seen in 2026 [1] Group 1: Strategic Adjustments - In 2025, Yanghe has adopted a dual-track strategy of "deepening the home market and nationwide expansion," shifting resources towards its core market in Jiangsu to counteract declining market share [2] - The company has implemented a "regional network penetration" model to strengthen coverage in county and township markets, achieving recognition as the "most favored wedding wine" by the Jiangsu Wedding Industry Association [2] - This strategic focus has led to a significant reduction in inventory turnover in Jiangsu, decreasing from 3 months to 2.5 months, and a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase in contract liabilities, restoring channel confidence [2] Group 2: Inventory and Channel Management - Yanghe's core strategy for 2025 centers on "inventory reduction and profit stabilization," reforming its channel system to eliminate previous inventory pressure and establish a win-win profit structure [3] - The company has shifted to a consumer-driven approach for inventory management, utilizing digital marketing strategies to stimulate sales and reduce channel stockpiling [3] - Yanghe's product strategy for 2025 includes a comprehensive product matrix across all price ranges, with high-end products like Dream Blue M6+ implementing a "controlled quantity and stable price" strategy to alleviate inventory pressure [3][4] Group 3: Product Development and Market Positioning - Yanghe's diverse product offerings, including high-end and mid-range products, are designed to mitigate risks from market fluctuations while maintaining a long-term focus on premiumization [4] - The introduction of high-line bottled liquor has achieved impressive sales, demonstrating the effectiveness of a full-price range strategy in maintaining competitiveness in various consumption scenarios [4] - The company's strong production capabilities, including 70,000 premium fermentation pits and 1 million tons of storage capacity, ensure product quality and support innovation, even amidst industry-wide investment reductions [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to enter the final phase of adjustment in 2026, with positive signals from policy and a recovery in consumption, setting the stage for overall industry revival [5] - Yanghe's adjustments in 2025 are anticipated to translate into growth momentum in 2026, with a stabilized core market and improved product structure contributing to revenue recovery [5][6] - The revitalization of channel dynamics, driven by reduced inventory pressure and improved profitability expectations, is expected to enhance sales activity in 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is entering a phase of stock competition with a notable decline in production, prompting companies like Yanghe to adopt a "slow and steady" development philosophy to navigate challenges [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The production of baijiu from large-scale enterprises decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, totaling 3.215 million liters from January to November 2025, indicating a significant contraction in the industry [1]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards stock competition, with many brands reducing their operations to weather the downturn [3]. Group 2: Yanghe's Brand Strategy - Yanghe has adjusted its brand investment structure, reducing sales expenses by 17.75% and advertising promotion costs by 21.03%, while increasing regional advertising expenditure to 37.38%, reflecting a strategic shift from broad coverage to targeted engagement [3]. - The brand has established emotional connections with consumers, exemplified by the "Dream Blue M6+" being featured in the CCTV Spring Festival Gala for seven consecutive years, embedding the brand in national collective memory [3]. Group 3: Local Market Engagement - Yanghe has demonstrated flexibility in regional markets by sponsoring local sports teams and integrating brand stories into local culture, transitioning from a "sponsor" to a "partner" [5]. - Collaborations with national entities like China Rocket and China Aviation to launch co-branded products have resonated with younger consumers, enhancing the brand's appeal [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Sales Strategy - Yanghe is focused on converting online traffic into offline consumption, utilizing strategies like QR code red envelopes and tasting events to drive product usage and repeat purchases [6]. - The company has implemented a strategy of "de-stocking, enhancing momentum, and stabilizing prices," which, while reflecting short-term revenue declines, lays a solid foundation for long-term health [7]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Pricing Stability - Yanghe's main products have maintained stable prices, with market inventory reducing by double digits, supported by strict measures against low-price dumping [7]. - The wholesale price of "Dream Blue M6+" has only slightly adjusted from 550 yuan to 540 yuan, with retail prices remaining stable between 600-700 yuan, acting as a stabilizer in the mid-range price segment [7]. Group 6: Long-term Strategy and Investment - Yanghe's strategic choices reflect a commitment to long-termism, with significant investments in R&D increasing by 77.92% year-on-year, aimed at enhancing product quality and innovation [10]. - The company possesses substantial resources, including 70,000 premium cellars and an annual production capacity of over 160,000 tons, providing a buffer against market fluctuations [10]. Group 7: Market Perception and Future Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, analysts recognize Yanghe's adjustments in market health, product structure optimization, and long-term operational rhythm as positive developments [11]. - The company's approach is likened to a marathon strategy, focusing on steady progress rather than immediate gains, positioning it for future success as market conditions improve [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows signs of a slight recovery in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 24, with an overall average price of 8,873 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. However, the market remains cautious with structural fluctuations dominating the short-term outlook [1]. Price Movements - Among the top ten liquor products, five experienced price increases, four saw declines, and one remained stable. The overall average price remained relatively stable [1]. - The leading price increase was observed in Qinghua Lang, which rose by 10 yuan per bottle. Xijiu Junpin followed with an increase of 8 yuan per bottle, while the price of premium Moutai rose by 7 yuan per bottle [1]. - Other products that saw slight increases include Qinghua Fen 20 and Gujing Gong Gu 20, which rose by 2 yuan and 1 yuan per bottle, respectively [1]. Declining Prices - The product with the largest decline was Wuliangye Pu 58th generation, which fell by 9 yuan per bottle. Guojiao 1573 also saw a decrease of 6 yuan per bottle, and Feitian Moutai dropped by 2 yuan per bottle, primarily due to the continued supply of low-priced goods on the iMoutai platform [1][3]. - Additionally, Shuijing Jian Nan Chun experienced a minor decline of 1 yuan per bottle, while Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ remained unchanged at 578 yuan [1][4].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Sector - **Key Themes for 2026**: 1. **Lukewarm Demand**: Overall retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% YoY in November 2025, down from 2.9% in October 2025, with forecasts of 2.6% growth in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, reflecting a deceleration in GDP growth to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027 [10][10] 2. **Price Deflation**: Persistent price deflation in consumer products, with significant price drops in categories like apparel and catering, impacting overall industry profitability [10][10] 3. **Consumer Preferences**: Young adults are prioritizing differentiated design, experience, and social value in their purchases [2][2] 4. **Overseas Expansion**: Companies are expected to expand internationally to counteract slow domestic growth, facing operational risks such as tariffs and supply chain management [10][10] 5. **Aging Demographics**: Challenges and opportunities arise from an aging population, with a decline in birth rates and a growing proportion of individuals over 65 years old [10][10] Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth**: Sector sales and earnings are projected to grow by 7.1% and 12.2% YoY in 2026, respectively, with a projected earnings CAGR of 10.3% from 2025 to 2027 [6][6] - **Valuation**: China consumer stocks are trading at 17x 2026E P/E, compared to ASEAN's 19x, Japan's 28x, and India's 54x, with a dividend yield of 4.2% [6][6] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks**: - **Laopu**: Expected to benefit from experience-led growth with a disciplined store count and strong earnings growth of 40% in 2026 [20][20] - **Luckin**: Forecasted to achieve a 28% increase in net profit, driven by a consumer-centered vision and strong digitalization [20][20] - **Guming**: Anticipated to net add 3.3k stores in 2026, with a 20% YoY increase in core net profit [20][20] - **Mao Ge Ping (MGP)**: Positioned to benefit from experience-driven consumption trends, expecting 30% earnings growth in 2026 [20][20] - **YUMC**: Strong growth expected from KFC and a turnaround for Pizza Hut, with a target of 30K stores by 2030 [20][20] - **Pop Mart**: Despite recent stock price declines, expected to maintain strong earnings with a focus on new product launches [20][20] - **Top Avoids**: - **Bud APAC**: Concerns over weak consumption sentiment and high-end market exposure, with forecasts of declining sales and EBITDA [27][27] - **Yanghe**: Risks associated with channel inventory build-up and rising competition [27][27] Additional Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: Consumers are expected to continue spending on affordable treats and differentiated products, with a focus on experiences rather than price [10][10] - **Market Dynamics**: Increased competition is leading to accelerated consolidation within the industry, with leaders expected to gain market share through cost-saving initiatives and digital technologies [10][10] - **Demographic Trends**: Marriage registrations dropped significantly, indicating a shrinking young population and potential further declines in birth rates [12][12] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China consumer sector, along with specific investment recommendations and potential risks.

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Yanghe") has released its performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 2.116 billion and 2.524 billion yuan [1] Group 1 - The company anticipates a significant profit range for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for its financial performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Co., Ltd. announced a cash dividend plan for the years 2025 to 2027, committing to distribute a total cash dividend of no less than 100% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company each year, subject to the company's profit distribution policy [1] Group 1 - The company will implement the cash dividend plan after it is drafted by the board of directors and approved by the shareholders' meeting [1]

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 1月23日，洋河股份发布公告称，公司董事会于近日收到公司副董事长、董事、总裁钟雨 先生的书面辞职申请。钟雨先生因到龄退休，申请辞去公司第八届董事会副董事长、董事、总裁及董事 会战略委员会委员、ESG委员会委员职务。钟雨先生原定任期至公司第八届董事会届满时止，辞任后不 在公司及控股子公司担任其他职务。公司于2026年1月23日召开第八届董事会第十八次会议，审议通过 了《关于聘任公司总裁的议案》，公司董事会同意聘任顾宇先生兼任公司总裁。 ...