[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 29 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：77.24 元 洋河股份（002304）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 中高档暂有承压，高分红彰显信心 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年度半年报，2024H1实现营业总收入 228.8亿元，同比 +4.6%，实现归母净利润 79.5亿元，同比+1.1%；2024单 Q2实现营业总收入 66.2 亿元，同比-3.0%，实现归母净利润 18.9亿元，同比-9.8%。公司拟定 2024 年度-2026年度，每年度现金分红总额不低于当年实现归属于上市公司股东净利 润的 70%且不低于人民币 70 亿元（含税）。 中高档略承压，省外增长稳健。2024H1：1、分产品结构看，中高档酒、普通 酒分别实现营收 199.6 亿元(+4.8%)、25.3 亿元(+5.2%)，商务消费复苏疲软， 中高档酒增长有所承压。2、分区域看，省内、省外分别实现营收 96.0 亿元 (+1.4%)、129.0 亿元(+7.5%)，省外市场开拓已成为营收主要增长源。3、量价 拆 ...

静待改革见成效 ——洋河股份 2024Q2 点评 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|--------------| | | | | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | 报告日期： 2024-09-01 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 81.88 | | 近 12 个月最高 / 最低（元） | 134.29/75.39 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,506 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,503 | | 流通股比例（ % ） | 99.75 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1,233 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,230 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -51% -35% -19% -3% 13% 9/23 12/23 3/24 6/24 洋河股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S001012404000 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing high dividend yield as a key attraction despite slowing earnings growth [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance was under pressure, with revenue declining 3.02% YoY and net profit dropping 9.75% YoY [2] - The company announced a cash dividend payout plan, committing to a minimum 70% payout ratio and at least 7 billion RMB annually from 2024-2026 [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the company's high dividend yield (around 6%) provides a safety margin and makes it attractive from a dividend perspective [3] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 total revenue reached 22.876 billion RMB, up 4.58% YoY, with net profit of 7.947 billion RMB, a 1.08% increase [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 6.621 billion RMB, down 3.02% YoY, with net profit of 1.892 billion RMB, a 9.75% decline [2] - The company's mid-to-high-end products contributed 19.96 billion RMB in H1, up 4.78% YoY [2] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue in H1 was 9.6 billion RMB (+1.42% YoY), while out-of-province revenue grew 7.50% to 12.9 billion RMB [2] - The company has 2,942 domestic and 5,891 out-of-province distributors, with a net increase of 62 out-of-province dealers [2] Profitability and Valuation - Q2 2024 gross margin was 73.67%, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [3] - The company's P/E ratio is projected at 11x for 2024 and 10x for 2026 [4] - ROE is expected to decline slightly from 19.28% in 2023 to 17.85% in 2026 [4] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Q2 2024 operating cash flow was -2.81 billion RMB, compared to -1.14 billion RMB in Q2 2023 [3] - Contract liabilities decreased by 1.88 billion RMB to 3.94 billion RMB at the end of Q2 [3] - The company's cash position is expected to grow from 25.813 billion RMB in 2023 to 40.974 billion RMB in 2026 [8] Future Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow from 34.661 billion RMB in 2024E to 39.265 billion RMB in 2026E [4] - Net profit is projected to increase from 10.208 billion RMB in 2024E to 11.591 billion RMB in 2026E [4] - EPS is expected to rise from 6.78 RMB in 2024E to 7.69 RMB in 2026E [4]

Investment Rating - Buy/Upgrade rating with a target price of 102.6 RMB, compared to the previous closing price of 77.24 RMB [1] Core Views - Short-term performance pressure but a commitment to shareholder returns with a minimum dividend of 7 billion RMB annually from 2024 to 2026 [1][3] - Revenue growth of 4.58% YoY in H1 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 1.08% YoY [3] - Product structure slightly shifted downward, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue growing by 4.78% YoY and ordinary liquor revenue growing by 5.16% YoY [3] - Regional performance shows slower growth in the domestic market (+1.42% YoY) compared to the external market (+7.50% YoY) [3] - Increased expense investment in Q2 2024, leading to a decline in net profit margin to 28.58% [3] - The company aims for a 5%-10% revenue growth in 2024, focusing on deepening its domestic market and expanding nationally [3] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue: 22.876 billion RMB (+4.58% YoY), net profit: 7.947 billion RMB (+1.08% YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 revenue: 6.621 billion RMB (-3.02% YoY), net profit: 1.892 billion RMB (-9.75% YoY) [3] - Gross margin in H1 2024: 75.4% (-0.8 pct YoY), Q2 gross margin: 73.7% (-1.4 pct YoY) [3] - Contract liabilities at the end of Q2 2024: 3.938 billion RMB, a decrease of 18.8% QoQ and 13.9% YoY [3] Product and Market Strategy - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue: 19.961 billion RMB (+4.78% YoY), gross margin: 79.40% (-1.37 pct YoY) [3] - Ordinary liquor revenue: 2.530 billion RMB (+5.16% YoY), gross margin: 49.82% (+2.76 pct YoY) [3] - Focus on stabilizing the price of M6+ and limiting the supply of Handmade Class products [3] - Domestic market strategy: Optimizing the dealer system, with 2,942 dealers at the end of Q2 2024 [3] - External market strategy: Increasing penetration, with 5,891 dealers at the end of Q2 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue growth for 2024-2026: 5%/7%/6% [3] - Expected net profit growth for 2024-2026: 3%/8%/7% [3] - EPS for 2024-2026: 6.84/7.41/7.93 RMB, with PE ratios of 11x/10x/10x [3] - Dividend yield based on current market value: 6% [3] Valuation and Target Price - Target price adjusted to 102.60 RMB based on 2024 performance, with a 15x PE ratio [3] - Current PE ratio: 11x for 2024, 10x for 2025 and 2026 [3]

洋河股份（002304.SZ） 优于大市 第二季度业绩承压，现金分红回报指引积极 2024 年第二季度公司收入、净利润下滑，发布 3 年现金分红回报规划。2024 上 半年公司实现营业总收入 228.76 亿元，同比+4.6%；实现归母净利润 79.47 亿元，同比+1.1%。其中，2024 年第二季度实现营业总收入 66.21 亿元，同 比-3.0%；实现归母净利润 18.92 亿元，同比-9.7%。公司发布现金分红回报 公告，2024-2026 年每年度现金分红率不低于 70%且分红总额不低于 70 亿元 （含税），积极回报投资者。 2024H1 收入平稳增长，白酒业务收入同比+4.89%。分产品看，2024H1 中高档 酒/普通酒收入 199.61/25.30 亿元，同比+4.78%/+5.16%，毛利率同比 -1.37/+2.76pcts，行业需求压力下结构升级趋势放缓，主品量增集中在 Q1 旺季、低价位产品需求韧性较好。分量价看，2024H1 销量/吨价同比 -0.27%/+5.17%，价增驱动收入增长系 1）公司坚持聚焦大单品战略；2）春 节旺季省内仍有结构改善；3）产品提价贡献。 省内坚持"聚焦 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.876 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.947 billion yuan, up 1% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 3% to 6.621 billion yuan, primarily due to weakened external demand and intensified market competition [1] - The company has initiated a cash dividend plan for 2024-2026, committing to distribute no less than 70% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum of 7 billion yuan each year, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company faces intensified competition within the province and is undergoing reform adjustments [1] Earnings Forecast - The company’s H1 2024 white liquor revenue was 22.436 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume at 115.6 thousand tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% [2] - The average price per ton of liquor increased by 5% to 194.1 thousand yuan [2] - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 19.961 billion yuan, also up 5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 2.530 billion yuan, maintaining a 5% increase [2] - The company’s sales model showed a 5% increase in wholesale and distribution revenue to 22.254 billion yuan, while online direct sales revenue decreased by 9% to 2.37 billion yuan [2] - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets was 9.595 billion yuan and 12.896 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1% and 8% [2] Financial Adjustments - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.72, 7.14, and 7.59 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is in line with market expectations, with a further increase in dividend rate, indicating a gradual accumulation value [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 22.88 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.95 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.89 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum of 7 billion yuan annually, resulting in a current dividend yield of around 6% [7] Revenue Performance - The company's mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor revenues increased by 4.8% and 5.2% respectively in H1 2024, with provincial and out-of-province revenues at 9.6 billion yuan and 12.9 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.42% and 7.50% respectively [5] - The internal structure shows that the M6+ product line is significantly affected by business demand, while competition in the province has intensified, impacting the market share of mass-market products [5] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 73.7% in Q2 2024, primarily due to a decline in the product structure of mid-to-high-end products [6] - The net profit margin in Q2 2024 decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 28.6% [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 6.79 yuan, 6.99 yuan, and 7.36 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.1, 11.7, and 11.1 times [4][8] Dividend Policy - The company emphasizes a dividend payout ratio while ensuring an absolute value, effectively guaranteeing shareholder returns [7]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|洋河股份（002304） 2024 年半年报点评： 三年分红方案超预期，投资价值凸显 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 考虑到消费弱复苏，我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 341.63/349.98/356.15 亿 元，同比分别增长 3.13%/2.45%/1.76%，归母净利润分别为 101.01/103.64/105.54 亿元，同 比分别增长 0.85%/2.60%/1.84%，对应三年 CAGR 为 1.76%，对应 2024-2026 年 PE 估值分别为 12/11/11X。鉴于公司业绩稳定性和分红率较高，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 洋河股份(002304) 2024 年半年报点评： 三年分红方案超预期，投资价值凸显 股价相对走势 -50% -30% -10% 10% 2023/8 2023/12 2024/4 2024/8 洋 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------|-------| | 2024 | 年 08 月 30 日 | | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 | | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | | 证券分析师： | 秦一方 S0350523120001 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-----------|-------|--------------------| | 相对沪深 300 \n表现 | 表现 \n1M | 3M | 2024/08/30 \n 12M | | 洋河股份 | 2.9% | -7.4% | -35.2% | | 沪深 300 | -1.4% | -7.6% | -12.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/08/30 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 81.88 | | 52 ...

江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告 【2024 年 8 月】 1 第一节 重要提示、目录和释义 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容 的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并承担 个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人张联东、主管会计工作负责人尹秋明及会计机构负责人(会计 公司计划不派发现金红利，不送红股，不以公积金转增股本。 主管人员)赵其科声明：保证本半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 所有董事均已出席了审议本次半年报的董事会会议。 本半年度报告涉及未来计划等前瞻性陈述，不构成公司对投资者的实质 承诺，投资者及相关人士均应当对此保持足够的风险认识，并且应当理解计 划、预测与承诺之间的差异，敬请投资者注意投资风险。 公司在本报告"第三节管理层讨论与分析"中"十、公司面临的风险和 应对措施"部分，详细描述了公司经营中可能存在的风险，敬请投资者关注 相关内容。 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...