Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, indicating a bottoming out and potential for a rebound during the Spring Festival, with a focus on key stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the safety margin for liquor companies is derived more from brand strength, market share, and sales momentum rather than just dividend yields, which are expected to be adjusted downwards for the years 2025-2026 [1][16]. - Recent sales tracking shows that Moutai's sales and pricing are better than market expectations, with a slight increase in overall channel sales volume and stable pricing [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend planning, with companies like Yanghe planning to maintain dividends at no less than 100% of their net profit for 2025-2027 [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Company Tracking - Yanghe's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 2.12 billion and 2.52 billion yuan, a decline of 62.2%-68.3% year-on-year, with a focus on inventory reduction and price stabilization [2][11]. - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.58 billion to 1.74 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.0%-65.0%, with plans to launch a high-end product in 2026 [3][12]. - Yihai International anticipates low single-digit growth in H2 2025, driven by improved gross margins and a return of key personnel, which is expected to enhance business performance [4][13]. - IFBH is expected to face pressure in H2 2025, but with potential recovery in 2026 as supply issues are resolved [4][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-up approach to investing in liquor stocks, with a focus on key players and potential rebounds in sales, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [5][16]. - It identifies four main lines for consumer goods: restaurant chains, dairy products, valuation-matched companies, and bottom-up recovery plays [5][17]. Industry Overview - The report notes that the food and beverage industry has a total market capitalization of 4,560.2 billion yuan, with 142 listed companies [5]. - The industry index shows a 1-month performance of 0.6%, a 6-month performance of 4.4%, and a 12-month performance of 17.7% [7].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao, a company with a market value of over 100 billion, is set to implement a mid-term dividend plan totaling approximately 2 billion yuan (including tax), highlighting its financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns amidst industry challenges [2][4]. Group 1: Dividend Plans - The mid-term dividend plan involves a cash distribution of 13.58 yuan per 10 shares, based on a total share capital of 1.472 billion shares, with a total payout of around 2 billion yuan [2][4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's shareholder return plan states that annual dividends will not be less than 8.5 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, with a minimum payout ratio of 65%, 70%, and 75% of net profit for those years respectively [4][10]. - In 2024, the company plans to distribute a total of approximately 8.759 billion yuan in dividends, exceeding the minimum target outlined in its shareholder return plan [4][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenues of 23.127 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.762 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.84% and 7.17% respectively [6]. - The overall white liquor market is experiencing pressure, with major companies like Luzhou Laojiao facing declining performance due to macroeconomic factors and high inventory levels [6][11]. Group 3: Industry Context - Other leading companies in the white liquor sector, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, are also implementing mid-term dividend plans, indicating a trend among top firms to ensure shareholder returns despite market challenges [8][9]. - Kweichow Moutai's mid-term dividend for 2025 is set at 300.01 billion yuan, while Wuliangye plans to distribute 100.07 billion yuan, showcasing the competitive landscape in dividend payouts among leading brands [8][9].

1月26日，A股早盘走势分化，中小盘股表现疲软，市场逾3800股飘绿，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.12%， 深成指跌0.74%，创业板指跌0.86%。 据券商中国报道，代表风险偏好的两大变量集体来袭。 一是地缘风险加剧和美元指数杀跌背景之下，金银期货、现货大涨，引导了资金流向； 二是热门股集体跳水，卫星ETF大跌近5%，炒作显著退潮。市场似乎走向了防御。 油气板块震荡走强 ，中国海油涨超6%，创历史新高，和顺石油涨停，中国石油、中国石化等跟涨。 点评：消息面上，受侵袭美国大部分地区的冬季风暴影响，美国天然气价格1月25日大幅飙升，期货价 格自2022年以来首次突破每百万英热单位6美元关口。东海证券指出，原油价格仍是周期判断的关键变 量。展望2026年，若油价趋稳后在全球复苏周期迎来温和上涨，利好炼化盈利进一步修复。 3、白酒板块下挫 白酒板块震荡下挫，洋河股份跌超8%，创2017年11月以来新低，水井坊、古井贡酒、今世缘、金徽酒 等跟跌。 盘面上，大金融板块护盘，券商、保险等方向领涨；资源主线强势，其中，有色、贵金属概念持续爆 发，四川黄金等多股涨停，油气板块走强，中国海油创历史新高；化工板块异动拉升，红宝丽直线 ...

环球市场动态 日 银 如 期 维 持 利 率 不 变 股 票 周五中国市场震荡升高，商业航天 板块再度爆发，大盘股仍承压；欧 洲股市涨跌不一，科技与国防板块 仍是市场焦点；美股企稳，特朗普 政治担忧告一段落，市场重新聚焦 重点企业财报。 外 汇 / 商 品 上周五日元兑美元逼近 160关口后 强劲反弹，创下去年 8 月以来最大 单日涨幅；市场认为日本可能出手 稳定汇率，且不排除获得美方罕见 协助，今早亚洲盘美元兑日元下跌 0.7%王 154.7 水平，现货黄金突破 5,080 美元，现货白银突破 108 美 元，同创历史高位。 固 定 收 益 上周日本债券收益率飙升、扰乱全 球固定收益市场之后，市场再次将 焦点转回美元与日上。美国国债上 周五跟随日债收涨，收益率下降 1- 2 个基点。受英国德国 PMI 推动， 欧债收益率普遍上涨。市场关注地 缘政治紧张局势，美债今天开盘小 幅上涨。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 26 日 ▪ 日银今年 1 月如期维持政策利率不变，上调 2025-2026 两财年的增长预测 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to experience a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a decline of 1.39% as of the latest report [1][2] - Major stocks in the sector, particularly in the liquor category, have seen significant drops, with Yanghe Distillery falling nearly 9% and other brands like Gujinggongjiu and Shuiwangfang dropping over 2% [1][2] - The recent performance reflects broader market trends, indicating a challenging environment for the food and beverage industry [1][3] Group 2 - The addition of new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing by "i Moutai" is a strategic response to increased order volumes and winter logistics challenges, enhancing customer experience [3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is currently at a historical low, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.39, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [3][4] - Analysts predict a market trend where sectors like snacks and dairy are favored due to clear growth prospects, while the liquor sector is expected to stabilize as demand increases with the upcoming Spring Festival [3][4] Group 3 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) is heavily invested in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai and Yili [4] - The ETF provides a way for investors to gain exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on high-quality stocks [4][5] - Recent reports suggest that the liquor industry is showing signs of weak recovery, with potential for valuation improvement as economic conditions gradually enhance [4]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to experience a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a decline of 1.39% as of the latest report [1][2] - Major stocks in the sector, particularly in the liquor category, have seen significant drops, with Yanghe Co. falling nearly 9% and other brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shui Jing Fang dropping over 2% [1][3] - The recent addition of new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing by "iMoutai" aims to enhance logistics efficiency in response to increased order volumes and winter weather challenges [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it a potentially good time for left-side positioning in the market [3][4] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage ETF is reported at 19.39, which is at the 1.76% percentile of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3][4] - Market trends indicate a preference for sectors like snacks and dairy, which are expected to perform well due to policy support and improving monthly data, while the liquor sector is in a phase of consolidation and preparation for upcoming demand [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a weak price differentiation among the top ten products, with a slight overall decline in retail prices, indicating a phase of market rebalancing [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,889 yuan, down by 4 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The market shows four products increasing in price, five decreasing, and one remaining stable [1]. Price Increases - Qinghua Lang leads the price increase with an 11 yuan rise per bottle, marking four consecutive days of price growth [1]. - Wuliangye and Mengzhilan M6+ saw increases of 4 yuan and 3 yuan per bottle, respectively, providing support in the mid-range segment [1]. - Qinghua Fen 20 experienced a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Decreases - Premium Moutai saw a price drop of 8 yuan per bottle [1]. - Xijiu Junpin and Gujing Gonggu 20 both decreased by 5 yuan per bottle [1]. - Feitian Moutai fell by 4 yuan per bottle due to normalized supply from the iMoutai platform [1]. - Guojiao 1573 experienced a minor decline of 1 yuan per bottle [1]. - Shujin Jianan Spring's price remained unchanged from the previous day [1]. Specific Product Prices - Feitian Moutai: 1,647 yuan per bottle, down 4 yuan [3]. - Premium Moutai: 2,348 yuan per bottle, down 8 yuan [3]. - Wuliangye: 806 yuan per bottle, up 4 yuan [3]. - Qinghua Fen 20: 375 yuan per bottle, unchanged [3]. - Guojiao 1573: 880 yuan per bottle, down 1 yuan [3]. - Mengzhilan M6+: 582 yuan per bottle, up 3 yuan [4]. - Gujing Gonggu 20: 499 yuan per bottle, down 57 yuan [4]. - Xijiu Junpin: 641 yuan per bottle, down 57 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Lang: 723 yuan per bottle, up 11 yuan [4]. - Shujin Jianan Spring: 388 yuan per bottle, unchanged [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, particularly on premium brands like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also highlighting the potential of other brands such as Wuliangye and Jinjing Wine [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, but a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in Q3 [2][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the liquor sector by the end of 2026 and into 2027, driven by improved fundamentals and valuation [2][7]. - The consumer goods sector is showing structural improvements, with competition shifting from price to quality, leading to a gradual balance in supply and demand [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41% last week, with liquor down 2.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.25 percentage points [6]. - Notable stock performances included a 19.59% increase for Haoxiangni and a 14.32% rise for Wancheng Group [6]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report highlights the price stability of Moutai, with a current price of 1560 RMB per bottle, up 20 RMB from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in pricing [8][27]. - The report notes that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks significantly, and anticipates a potential increase in sales volume as the Spring Festival approaches [8]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - The report mentions the upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang, a leading snack retail chain, which is expected to catalyze the snack sector [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and digitalization in enhancing competitive advantages for companies like Mingming Hen Mang [10]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is currently at 19.27x, with a premium rate of 10%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 17.50x, indicating a zero premium [27].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment phase characterized by weak sales, declining profits, and high inventory levels, with a reported production decrease of 11.5% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [1] - Yanghe Co. has leveraged its substantial reserve of 700,000 tons of original liquor to establish a differentiated competitive barrier, positioning itself favorably for future growth despite the industry's challenges [1][4] Industry Overview - The current liquor market is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a rapid industry reshuffle where the strategic value of original liquor reserves has become paramount [2][4] - Many smaller liquor companies are reducing production and compromising on quality due to insufficient original liquor, while leading companies are focusing on volume control and price stability [4] Company Strengths - Yanghe's original liquor reserve is a result of its unique geographical advantages and long-term strategic commitment, with its production site located in a renowned liquor-producing region [4] - The company has consistently adhered to a strategic reserve policy, ensuring a portion of high-quality base liquor is set aside for long-term storage, contributing to its competitive edge [4] Product Strategy - Yanghe has introduced the concept of "real aging" in the light bottle liquor segment, emphasizing a "100% three-year aged" product to align with consumer trends favoring quality over packaging [5][6] - The seventh generation of "Hai Zhi Lan" has undergone a quality upgrade, enhancing its market position through improved taste and sufficient original liquor supply [6] Market Positioning - In the premium segment, the "Meng Zhi Lan M6+" has maintained stable pricing and strengthened its brand value, allowing Yanghe to avoid the pitfalls of price wars [8] - The company is focusing on strategic markets such as the Yangtze River Delta and major cities to reinforce its market presence and address high inventory levels through targeted policies and activities [8][9] Future Outlook - Yanghe's comprehensive strategies, including its original liquor reserves and channel reforms, are expected to create a synergistic effect, potentially leading to a gradual recovery in the market [9] - While challenges remain, such as inventory digestion and regional competition, Yanghe's solid foundation and pragmatic reforms may facilitate a gradual upward trend in performance [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Australian wine market is reshaping the Chinese imported wine market after a year and a half of absence, with a significant initial increase in imports followed by a decline in sales due to inventory issues and economic pressures [2] - The low-alcohol beverage category is rapidly growing, appealing to younger consumers, but faces challenges such as brand homogenization and declining repurchase rates [2] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a shift in market dynamics, with top brands competing fiercely and some companies facing their first quarterly negative growth in nearly a decade [4] - New beverage products are emerging, with brands like Xiaojin Wine and Guoli Fang successfully capturing market share through innovative approaches [5] - The industry is expected to return to rationality in 2026, focusing on consumer needs and product quality, while smaller companies may face elimination [6] Industry Environment - The Australian wine market is seeing a resurgence in China due to the removal of anti-dumping taxes, but initial sales have not met expectations, leading to inventory issues and price reductions [2] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow from 20 billion yuan in 2020 to 57 billion yuan by 2024, but faces challenges in brand differentiation and consumer loyalty [2] - The white liquor market is undergoing structural changes, with companies like Shanxi Fenjiu surpassing others in revenue, indicating a competitive landscape [4] - The introduction of innovative products is crucial for the industry's transformation, with a focus on low-alcohol and health-oriented offerings [5] - The industry is moving towards a more rational approach, emphasizing product quality and consumer experience, as it transitions from a bubble phase to a healthier growth period [6] Top Brand Dynamics - Guizhou Zhenjiu is upgrading its "Dazhen" product to enhance quality and market positioning, aiming to compete with top brands like Moutai [8] - Wuliangchun is celebrating its 30th anniversary with a marketing campaign that deepens emotional connections with consumers [9] - Xifengjiu is focusing on quality and cultural empowerment to drive its revival in the competitive white liquor market [10] - Moutai is launching a new product structure to meet diverse consumer needs and stabilize its market presence [14] - Niulanshan is evolving its product strategy to maintain its position in the mass market while enhancing emotional connections with consumers [18]