公 司 研 究 涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ） 2024 年 04 月 03 日 大乌江战略持续推进，2024 年盈利能力有望改善 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：增持（维持） 张宇光（分析师） 方一苇（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 fangyiwei@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030001 2023 年报符合预期，2024 年盈利能力有望改善 公司发布 2023 年年报：营收/归母净利润 24.5/8.3 亿元（同比-3.9%/-8.0%）；2023Q4 营收/归母净利润 5.0/1.7 亿元（同比-0.8%/-17.3%），符合市场预期。考虑消费能 力下降，我们认为提价可能性降低，预测 2024-2026 年归母净利润 9.3/10.3（-0.5） /11.6 亿元（同比+12.5%/11.2%/11.8%），EPS 为 0.81/0.90/1.00 元，当前股价对应 PE16.6/14.9/13.3 倍，维持"增持"评级。 大乌江战略推进，餐饮渠道+酱类新品同步发力 1 、 分品类： 2023 年 榨 菜 / 萝 卜 / ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅（ % ） | -3.4 | 9.9 | -5.4 | | 相对涨幅（ % ） | -5.1 | -1.8 | -10.2 | | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 | | | | 事件。公司发布 2023 年年报：2023 年公司实现营业总收入 24.50 亿元，同 比-3.9%，归母净利润 8.27 亿元，同比-8.0%，其中 Q4 单季公司实现营业总 收入 4.98 亿元，同比-0.8%，归母净利润 1.67 亿元，同比-17.3%。同时公司 公告 2023 年利润分配方案：每 10 股派发现金股利 3.00 元（含税），分红率 为 41.9%。 24 年成本回落有望提振毛利率。23 年公司毛利率同比-2.43pct 至 50.7%， 主要受累于原材料价格上涨（青菜头收购价同比+40%），其中榨菜/泡菜/萝卜 毛利率分别同比-2.17pct/-5. ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - Fuling Zhacai reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2023, with revenue at 2.45 billion yuan (-3.9% YoY) and net profit at 827 million yuan (-8% YoY) [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its product line, particularly in the foodservice channel, with new products like pickles and sauces to drive growth [2] - The company aims to achieve a 10 billion yuan revenue target for its Wujiang brand by 2030 [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's gross margin was 50.72%, down 2.43 pcts YoY, primarily due to a 40% increase in the purchase price of raw materials caused by drought [7] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 33.74%, down 1.53 pcts YoY [7] - Revenue from core products such as pickled vegetables, radishes, and pickles declined by 4.56%, 25.99%, and 6.51% respectively, while other products saw a 75.74% increase [17] Product and Channel Strategy - The company plans to stabilize its core pickled vegetable category while expanding into new growth areas such as side dishes and sauces [2] - The foodservice channel, which grew rapidly in 2023, will be further developed with new products like bean paste and pickles to target the catering market [2] - The number of distributors increased by 112 in 2023, with the South China region seeing the most significant growth [17] Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow to 2.669 billion yuan in 2024E, with a growth rate of 8.94% [8] - Net profit is expected to reach 925 million yuan in 2024E, with a growth rate of 11.92% [8] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 0.80 yuan in 2024E, with a P/E ratio of 17x [8] Valuation and Profitability - The company's ROE (diluted) is expected to be 10.48% in 2024E, up from 10.03% in 2023 [8] - The P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 1.9 in 2023 to 1.8 in 2024E [8] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to improve from 12.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2024E [22]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 2024 年 03 月 31 日 涪陵榨菜 (002507) ——23 年收入略有承压 调味菜榨菜酱表现亮眼 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持）投资要点： 事件：公司发布 2023 年年报，2023 年实现收入 24.5 亿，同比下降 3.9%，实现归母净利 润 8.3 亿，同比下降 8%，实现扣非归母净利润 7.6 亿，同比下降 7.6%。测算 23Q4 实现 收入 4.98 亿，同比下降 0.8%，实现归母净利润 1.67 亿，同比下降 17.3%，实现扣非归 母净利润 1.53 亿，同比下降 15.4%，我们在业绩前瞻预计 23Q4 收入与利润分别同比下 降 2%与 5%，收入符合预期，利润低于预期。分红方案为每 10 股派 3 元，分红率为 41.9%。 根据 24 年度财务预算，公司计划营业收入同比增长 12%至 27.4 亿，营业成本同比增长 9.96%至 13.3 亿。 投资评级与估值：考虑到需求弱复苏，略下调 2024-25 年盈利预测，新增 2026 年，预测 2024-26 年归母净利润分别为 9.4、10.6、11.7 亿（前次 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set for the next six months [3][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2024, guided by its strategy of "stabilizing existing products, strengthening foundations, and seeking growth," with a revenue growth target of 12% [3]. - The company has seen a decline in revenue and net profit in 2023, with revenues of 2.45 billion and a net profit of 826.58 million, representing year-on-year decreases of 3.86% and 8.04% respectively [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue and net profit were 2.45 billion and 826.58 million respectively, with a decline in revenue growth rate of 3.86% and net profit growth rate of 8.04% [1][3]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin decreased to 50.72% and 33.74% respectively in 2023, primarily due to rising raw material costs [11]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2.74 billion, 3.06 billion, and 3.38 billion respectively, with expected growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 11% [3][13]. Market Expansion and Product Development - The company has successfully increased its dealer network, adding 112 dealers in 2023, bringing the total to 3,239 [2]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence in the catering sector, with a significant increase in the sales of its seasoning products, which exceeded 80 million, marking a growth of over 30% [2]. - The company’s main products, including pickled vegetables, have shown stable revenue growth, with pickled mustard greens generating 2.08 billion in revenue in 2023 [10]. Cost Management - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios showing slight changes in 2023 [11]. - The sales expense ratio increased due to a low base in the previous year, while management and financial expense ratios remained relatively stable [11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 23Q4 压力延续，关注新管理层调整 目标价：15.8 元 当前价：13.50 元 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------|-------------------|-----------------------------|-------| | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入 ( 百万 ) | 2,450 | 2,667 | 2,881 | 3,112 | | 同比增速 (%) | -3.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | | 归母净利润 ( 百万 ) | 827 | 910 | 1,012 | 1,105 | | 同比增速 (%) | -8.0% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.2% | | 每股盈利 ( 元 ) | 0.72 | 0.79 | 0.88 | 0.96 | | 市盈率 ( 倍 ) 19 | | 17 | 15 | 14 | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 ...

[Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Title] 涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ） 需求成本短期承压，期待利润弹性 需求短期疲软，原材料成本承压。公司发布 2023 年报，2023 年收入 24.50 亿元，同比-3.86%；归母净利润 8.27 亿元，同比-8.04%。其中， 2023Q4 收入 4.98 亿元，同比-0.84%；归母净利润 1.67 亿元，同比- 17.33%。分产品，榨菜/萝卜/泡菜/其他分别收入 20.76/0.61/2.25/0.84 亿元，同比增长-4.56%/-25.99%/-6.51%/+75.74%。主力产品收入下滑 主要受需求表现疲软以及一二线人口回流影响，其他收入高增主要由 于海带、豇豆增长较快。利润端，2023 年净利率同比-1.53pct 至 33.74%。其中毛利率同比-2.43pct 至 50.72%，主要由于青菜头成本提 升以及产品结构影响；销售费用率同比-0.97pct 至 13.37%，品牌费用 投入有所减少。管理/研发费用率同比分别+0.20pct/+0.08pct。 预计青菜头成本下降，期待利润弹性。展望 2024 年：收入端，公司渠 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|-------------|---------------------------------------------|-------------------------|------------------------| | [Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title] 涪陵榨菜 \n | (002507) | | | [Table_industryInfo] | | [Table_Inves ...

（二）积极开展帮扶助困 公司体贴关怀困难员工，报告期内，集团公司党办及工会通过帮扶慰问、发动捐款等多种形式，为困难党员、困难 职工持续提供帮助。 （三）大力发展产业扶贫 集团公司义务给种植户讲解榨菜种植的技术，与之签订《原料收购合同》，约定对种植的青菜头以保护价收购，确 保广大农户的种植收益。同时创新调整原料营运模式，带动榨菜专业合作社和原料加工户形成产业协作、利益共联，帮 助菜农创收，助力乡村振兴。 （四）引领行业突破发展 公司近年来累计利用自有资金数亿元修建了环保设施，同时斥资上亿元研发改进 MVR 盐水浓缩和膜过滤技术。报 告期内，公司持续推动绿色智能化生产基地募投项目进程，公司未来将持续通过内生式增长激发创新、高质量发展引领 创新，积极带动整个行业，为推进中国特色农业的改革创新探路，让传统农业焕发新时代的新生命。 三、巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、乡村振兴的情况 公司大力发展产业扶贫。 集团公司义务给种植户讲解榨菜种植的技术，与之签订《原料收购合同》，约定对种植的青菜头以保护价收购，确 保广大农户的种植收益。同时创新调整原料营运模式，带动榨菜专业合作社和原料加工户形成产业协作、利益共联，帮 助菜农创收，助力乡 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company faces pressure from market demand, but its dual expansion strategy supports medium to long-term growth [1] - Cost increases have impacted profitability, but efficiency in expense allocation is expected to improve [1] - Product category expansion is progressing, with e-commerce and catering channels gaining traction [1] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in gross margin in 2024 due to raw material price stabilization and increased procurement of semi-finished products [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 2.45 billion yuan (-4% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 827 million yuan (-8% YoY) [1] - Q4 2023 revenue was 498 million yuan (-1% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 167 million yuan (-17% YoY) [1] - Gross margin in 2023 was 50.72%, down 2 percentage points YoY, mainly due to rising raw material prices and the launch of lower-priced bulk products [1] - Sales expense ratio and management expense ratio in 2023 were 13.37% and 3.59%, respectively, with sales expenses decreasing due to reduced advertising and optimized expense structure [1] Product and Channel Development - In 2023, pickled vegetable revenue was 2.076 billion yuan (-5% YoY), accounting for a decreased proportion of total revenue, while other products, especially sauces, saw significant growth [1] - Direct sales revenue increased by 28% YoY, driven by e-commerce, while catering channels showed growth potential, with seasoning product shipments exceeding 80 million yuan (+30% YoY) [1] - The number of distributors increased by 112 to 3,239 by the end of 2023, supporting cross-channel expansion [1] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 2.757 billion yuan in 2024 (+12.5% YoY), 3.052 billion yuan in 2025 (+10.7% YoY), and 3.336 billion yuan in 2026 (+9.3% YoY) [13] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 923 million yuan in 2024 (+11.7% YoY), 1.029 billion yuan in 2025 (+11.5% YoY), and 1.139 billion yuan in 2026 (+10.7% YoY) [13] - EPS is projected to be 0.80 yuan in 2024, 0.89 yuan in 2025, and 0.99 yuan in 2026, with a current PE ratio of 17x for 2024 [3][13] Strategic Focus - The company continues to implement its "dual-wheel drive" strategy, focusing on consolidating its core pickled vegetable business while expanding into new product categories and channels [3]