1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall weakness of hog prices is difficult to reverse due to continuous release of production capacity pressure [1] - In February 2026, the market generally expects a significant decline in spot hog prices after the Spring Festival, with the post - holiday low possibly falling below 11.5 yuan/kg [5] - In trading, it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling. After the Spring Festival, wait for the spot low to buy contracts 05 and 07 at low prices, or hold long futures positions and sell deep out - of - the - money call options [5] - Pay attention to the seasonal low of spot prices after the Spring Festival and the culling of breeding sows [95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 January Hog Spot and Futures Price Review - In January 2026, the overall commodity market strengthened, and the agricultural product index rebounded. However, the hog index hit a new low and continued to fluctuate at a low level [9][10] - The hog spot price rebounded briefly in January and then fell back to a historical low. The price of piglets rebounded significantly, and the feed price was relatively strong [14][17][20] - Terminal consumption did not improve significantly, the average price of白条 meat fluctuated at a low level for a long time, and the pressure of poultry prices on hog prices decreased [23][29] - The hog price showed a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival this year. Historically, the average monthly increase in January was - 2.3%, and the probability of an increase was 46% [32] Hog Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows is currently in the green reasonable range, with a limited overall decline compared to 2024 [34][35] - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared to previous years, and the current culling of breeding sows is relatively moderate [36][38] - The production efficiency of single sows has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises is gradually narrowing [40] Listed Hog Enterprises - In 2025, the slaughter volume of leading group companies increased significantly year - on - year. However, the profitability of group enterprises was highly differentiated, and most still suffered losses [45][46] - In 2025, the overall breeding cost of group enterprises decreased, but the differences were large, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies was at a historically high level [49][50] Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In January, the sentiment of passive hog retention was still high, the weight reduction speed of the industry was slow, and the slaughter volume was at a historically low level [54][57][59] - The import volume of pork and offal declined from a high level, and the overall frozen product inventory was in the destocking stage in January [61][64] - In January, self - breeding and self - raising turned profitable, while the slaughter of purchased piglets continued to be in a loss state [67][68] Hog Futures Price - The hog futures price rebounded following the spot price and then fell back. The near - month futures price has become at a discount to the spot price [69] - The hog index failed to rebound from a historical low, and the trading volume was at a historically high level. The ratio of hog to feed on the futures market was close to a historical low [70][73] - Contracts 2603 and 2605 are below the breeding cost, and there is an expectation of a post - holiday off - season with a discount to the spot price. The price of peak - season contracts is slightly higher than the breeding cost but has a high premium to the current spot price [75][78] - The basis is slightly stronger than in the same period of previous years. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival spot price trend. There may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between months, and the discount before the futures delivery month is still high [81][84][87] - The volatility of the hog 2605 contract is at a low level [93]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu segment, has shown strong performance leading up to the Spring Festival, with Moutai's sales exceeding expectations and institutional holdings at a historical low of 3.5% [1][3] - Moutai's price has increased from 1,550 RMB to 1,700 RMB, with expectations for further price increases before the festival, maintaining a price floor above 1,500 RMB for the year [3] - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, with Moutai being the top pick due to its attractive valuation and dividend yield above 4% [1][4] Agriculture Industry - Haida Group is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%-15% in its domestic feed business over the next 5-10 years, with overseas market growth exceeding 40% [1][6] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures to lower per-ton depreciation costs, thereby releasing profits [6] - In the pig farming sector, the focus is on the breeding sow inventory, which has decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential rebound in pig prices post-adjustment in production capacity [8][9] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a multi-point development trend, with promising prospects in innovative drugs and AI healthcare [11] - Retail pharmacy growth is expected to be between 10%-15%, supported by government policies encouraging high-quality development in the sector [12] - The market confidence is recovering, with opportunities in traditional Chinese medicine and retail pharmacy expected to increase due to improved inventory and consumption characteristics [12][13] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector is benefiting from signals of financial easing in real estate, with major brands like Midea and Haier entering a price increase cycle [14] - Midea's dividend rate may increase to 75% by 2025, with a projected dynamic PE of 12-13 times for 2026 [14] - The LCD panel market is also seeing price increases, with TCL Technology expected to double its earnings in 2026 due to the expiration of depreciation on its panels [14] Textile and Apparel Industry - Li Ning Company is highlighted as a key investment target, with inventory levels returning to 4.5-5 months and positive cash flow from distributors [15][16] - The company has entered a technology upgrade cycle, with strong feedback on new running shoe lines and a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee to sponsor the national team's uniforms [16][17] E-commerce and Cloud Computing - Alibaba is viewed positively for its AI and cloud computing businesses, with expectations for rapid user growth in its Q&A app and potential price increases in its cloud services [18] - The target price for Alibaba is set at 194 HKD, with a valuation of at least 10 times PE for its e-commerce business and 10 times PS for its cloud business [18] Snack Industry - The bulk snack industry is in a high-growth phase, with a market size of approximately 60,000 stores and potential for 50% growth [20] - Recommended companies include Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group, with expected revenue growth rates exceeding 20% and profit growth around 30% [20] Additional Insights - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards consumer sectors, with a focus on increasing consumption rates in China as a key economic goal [2] - The anticipated recovery in various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and home appliances, suggests a favorable environment for investment in these industries [11][14]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Positive" for planting and livestock sectors, "Neutral" for forestry and fishery sectors, and "Positive" for agricultural product processing [6][21]. Core Insights - The agricultural index increased by 1.82% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.44% [27]. - The planting sector led the gains, with a 9.44% increase, while all secondary industries saw an uptick [27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the planting industry chain due to rising grain prices [20]. Livestock Industry - **Pork**: The price rebound in the pork market has ended, with the average price at 12.3 CNY/kg, down 0.67 CNY from last week. The average price for piglets increased to 28.62 CNY/kg, up 0.59 CNY [5][20]. - The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses rose to 39.69%, an increase of 3.21 percentage points from last week [5][20]. - The total number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in capacity reduction [21]. - **Chicken**: The industry is experiencing high capacity levels, with chicken prices expected to fluctuate in the medium term. The average price for broiler chickens is 3.83 CNY/kg, up 0.17 CNY from last week [20][22]. - The average price for yellow chickens is 12.95 CNY/kg, with expectations of price increases due to low supply levels [23][24]. Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: The report highlights the ongoing optimization of industry policies and the advancement of genetically modified organisms, which are expected to boost seed prices and sales [25]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent trends show an increase in grain prices, with corn averaging 2390 CNY/ton and wheat at 2529 CNY/ton, indicating a strong expectation for international grain price increases [26][12]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends buying shares in Zhongchong Co., Muyuan Foods, and Suqian Agricultural Development, all rated as "Buy" [3][51].

◇温氏股份无论处于高峰还是低谷，无论面临何种诱惑，未曾考虑迁移总部，我们希望农牧业生产更接 地气，也希望为孕育我们的土地和支持我们的百姓贡献一己之力 跨越周期的生存法则 《瞭望》：如何概括温氏股份40余年的发展历程？ 文 |《瞭望》新闻周刊记者 王仁贵 贾雯静 唐朵朵 高博翰 历经非洲猪瘟、疫情考验，依旧稳健前行；因实实在在的强农富民业绩荣获"全国脱贫攻坚先进集体"荣 誉称号；无论公司经营效益如何，都保证合作农户合理收入；地理位置看似偏远，仍吸引各方人才汇聚 于此；研发猪基因芯片，解决种业"卡脖子"难题；年销售13亿只肉鸡，向着人人都能吃上健康美味的土 鸡的愿景不断迈进…… 在广东省云浮市新兴县，这座经济体量不大的小城，孕育着一个营收破1000亿元的农牧业巨头企业—— 温氏食品集团股份有限公司。作为一家以畜禽养殖为主业、配套相关业务的跨地区现代农牧企业集团， 温氏股份自1983年创立以来，始终秉持"精诚合作 齐创美满生活"的企业文化核心理念，在时代浪潮中 把握发展节奏，为社会持续贡献力量，并于2015年上市，至今已走过40余个春秋。 面对农业发展的深刻变革，公司董事长温志芬告诉《瞭望》新闻周刊记者，温氏股份将 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices by 6% to 12.21 CNY/kg, while the price of white feather chicken products has increased to 9,400 CNY/ton [3][4] - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has been profitable for three consecutive weeks, with a profit of 25.1 CNY per head [3] - The report recommends continued investment in the pig farming sector, particularly in companies like Muyuan Foods, Tiankang Biological, Wens Foodstuff, and Lihua Agricultural [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.86 kg, with the proportion of heavy pigs (over 150 kg) at 5.78% [3] - The price of two-yuan sows remains stable at 1,559 CNY/head, while the price of piglets has increased by 3.3% week-on-week [3] - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines post-Chinese New Year due to expected capacity reduction in the pig industry [3] Chicken Farming - The price of white feather chicken products has risen to 9,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [4] - Yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months, with an average price of 14.95 CNY/kg [4] - The report notes a historical high in the number of breeding stock for white feather chickens, with a total of 157.42 million sets updated in December 2025 [4] Cattle Industry - As of the end of 2025, the cattle stock in China has decreased by 8.6%, with expectations for prices to rise in the first half of 2026 [8] - The report suggests that the decline in cattle stock is a precursor to rising beef prices, with historical data supporting this trend [8] Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion CNY [7] - The pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [7]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points in January 2026, with a decline of 0.2% for the sector compared to a 1.7% increase for the index [15][17]. - Low-cost pig farming enterprises are showing competitive advantages, with significant performance differentiation among companies as indicated by their annual earnings forecasts [4][29]. Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural sector's performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, with the sector down 0.2% while the index rose 1.7% [15][17]. - The planting, animal health, fishery, and agricultural processing sub-sectors saw increases of 13.7%, 13.0%, 10.0%, and 6.6% respectively, while feed and livestock farming sub-sectors decreased by 0.1% and 5.1% [15][18]. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs in January 2026 was 12.53 CNY/kg, reflecting an 11.8% month-on-month increase but a 21.2% year-on-year decrease [29][34]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 5.9 CNY/head, a month-on-month increase of 154 CNY/head, but a year-on-year decrease of 159.8 CNY/head [29][32]. - The average profit for purchased piglets was 47.5 CNY/head, with a month-on-month increase of 260.6 CNY/head and a year-on-year increase of 92.2% [29][32]. Raw Material Prices - In January 2026, the average spot price of corn was approximately 2365 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [48][49]. - The average spot price of wheat was about 2520 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering companies like Dekang Agriculture and New Hope for their potential turnaround [4][29]. - For smaller livestock companies, attention is drawn to Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [4][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial for profitability this year. The chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn, is anticipated to recover gradually due to improving demand. The beef and raw milk sectors are expected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, signaling a cyclical upturn [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned for growth, including Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and others [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 1.8%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.1%. The top five gainers included Nongfa Seed Industry (30.2%), Shennong Technology (26.1%), and others, while the top five losers included Fujian Jinsen (-12.6%) and others [2][3]. Pig Farming - The report notes that the overall pig slaughter pace has accelerated as the pre-holiday window approaches, leading to a significant drop in pig prices. The average price for external three yuan pigs was 12.24 yuan/kg, down 5.3% week-on-week. The seasonal price rebound that began in mid-December has likely concluded, with expectations of further price pressure [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The report indicates that the price of white feather chicken and chicken products has shown strong support, with the average sales price for white feather chicken at 3.76 yuan/kg, up 2.7% week-on-week. The demand side is expected to improve, potentially pushing product prices out of the cyclical bottom [2][3]. Cattle Farming - The report highlights a slight increase in beef and calf prices, with the average price for fattening bulls at 25.68 yuan/kg, up 0.1% week-on-week. The raw milk price remains stable at 3.04 yuan/kg, supported by seasonal demand [2][3]. Pet Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring online sales of pet food in 2025, noting that major online platforms reported a sales figure of 21.1 billion yuan in December 2025, a decrease of 11% year-on-year. However, the overall annual sales for 2025 reached 307.1 billion yuan, an increase of 10% [2][3].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 多家种企业绩回升，看好种植景气回升 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：业绩预告公告完毕，四季度生猪养殖普遍亏损。种植：种子公司业绩回升， 看好种植板块景气上行。宠物: 乖宝品牌抖音销售排名靠前，看好年后展会催化。 投资要点： [种植： Table_Summary] 多家种子公司业绩回升，看好种植板块景气上行。 多家种子公司发布业绩预告，登海种业归母净利润拟增长 62%-80%， 隆平高科拟增长 14%-67%，大北农的种子业务也实现净利润增长， 荃银 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

本报记者 桂小笋 同花顺数据显示，截至1月30日，A股共有34家农业公司发布了2025年度业绩预告。具体来看，这34家 公司里，养殖企业牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"牧原股份"）和温氏食品集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"温氏股份"）2025年预计净利润位居前列。 王红焱分析称，此次出现"旺季不旺"是"供需失衡+需求疲软+周期错配"多重因素叠加的结果。"供应 端，能繁母猪存栏处于高位；需求端，虽然猪肉屠宰量同比微增，但禽肉等替代品类的价格优势分流了 部分猪肉需求；此外，2026年春节备货周期有所推迟。" 卓创资讯生猪分析师孙魏杰告诉《证券日报》记者，从监测信息来看，多数从业者普遍预期2026年下半 年生猪价格将止跌反弹。需要关注的是，母猪生产效率的提升可能会明显制约2026年下半年的生猪价格 涨幅，而从业者的一致性预期可能导致补栏行为的前置，从而影响生猪价格提前上涨。综合来看，预计 2026年第二季度生猪价格有可能止跌反弹，但总体反弹幅度有限。 温氏股份发布的公告显示，2025年，预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为50亿元至55亿元，同比下 降40.73%至46.12%。公告从两方面解读了业绩变动的原因：首先 ...