Investment Rating - The report rates the railway and highway industry as "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The freight volume in China is projected to reach 58.7 billion tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The growth rates for railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation freight volumes are expected to be 2%, 3.4%, 3.2%, and 13.3% respectively [4]. - Fixed asset investment in transportation is expected to remain high, with an estimated completion of over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2025. The inter-regional personnel flow is projected to reach 66.86 billion person-times, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [4]. - Railway passenger and freight volumes are expected to maintain steady growth, with passenger volume reaching 4.601 billion people and freight volume reaching 5.277 billion tons in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 2% respectively [4]. - The highway sector is anticipated to improve in 2026 after a slowdown in growth in 2025, with freight volume growth of 3.4% in 2025 [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on high dividend stocks and potential market value management catalysts in the highway sector, with specific companies such as Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Zhejiang Expressway being highlighted [4]. Summary by Sections Railway Transportation - In 2025, the total passenger turnover is expected to reach 1,639.556 billion person-kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The total freight turnover is projected to be 3,686.909 billion ton-kilometers, growing by 2.8% [4]. - The investment in railway fixed assets is expected to reach 901.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [4]. Highway Transportation - The growth rate of highway freight volume is expected to slow down in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 due to stable demand in highway logistics [4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment themes for the year: traditional high dividend investments and potential market value management catalysts. Recommended companies include Wanhua Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and others [4].

房地产 2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，三条红线政策逐步退场 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/24-2026/1/30） 本期投资提示： 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升、二手房环比下降，新房成交推盘比回落。上周 (1.24-1.30)34 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the construction industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2026 as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the construction PMI stands at 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, reflecting a decline in investment sentiment due to weather and holiday factors [3][11]. - The report highlights the government's initiative to foster new growth points in service consumption, encouraging local governments to utilize financial resources and industry funds to enhance infrastructure in tourism and residential areas [11]. - The report identifies key companies with significant profit growth expectations, such as Zhite New Materials, which anticipates a net profit of 160-200 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.11%-171.39% [13][14]. Industry Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index decreased by 1.44%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.08% [3][4]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week included International Engineering (+0.50%) and Professional Engineering (+0.11%), while the Steel Structure sub-industry saw a decline of 0.69% [5][9]. - Year-to-date, the Professional Engineering sub-industry has increased by 22.53%, and the Steel Structure sub-industry by 21.12%, with notable companies like Zhite New Materials showing a staggering increase of 234.08% [5][9]. Key Company Developments - China Aluminum International signed 4,891 contracts in 2025, with a total contract value of 46.836 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 51.94% [13][16]. - Other companies such as Shanghai Construction and Zhengzhong Design are projected to experience varying profit changes, with Shanghai Construction expecting a significant decline in net profit for 2025 [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new contract signings and order volumes for key companies to gauge future performance [19].

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备/ 专用设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 刘宏达 A0230524020002 liuhd@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 何佳霖 A0230523080002 hejl@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 银价飙升光伏承压，激光技术助力 降本 看好 ——光伏激光设备行业点评 行业点评 重点公司估值表 | 代码 | 简称 | 2026/1/30 | | 归母净利润（亿） | | | | PE | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市值（亿） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current performance pressures [3][4]. Core Insights - Mainstream real estate companies are forecasting a decline or losses in 2025, but the report suggests that the most challenging period may be coming to an end. The report highlights significant declines in new construction and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the industry is nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy statements reflecting a more proactive approach to addressing risks and supporting the sector [3][4]. - While overall performance for mainstream real estate companies is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in profitability for quality firms, driven by improved sales and operational performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Vanke A forecasting a loss of 82 billion RMB and China Overseas Development projecting a decline of 20% to 0% in net profit [4][6]. - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth rates, with some firms like Binjiang Group and New Town Holdings expected to see slight growth, while others like China Jinmao and Vanke A are projected to incur substantial losses [6][7]. Asset and Credit Impairment - The report details the cumulative asset and credit impairment losses for major firms, indicating that some companies have experienced significant write-downs, with New Town Holdings at 27% and Goldfield Group at 25% of their inventory [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major real estate companies, showing that many are trading at historical lows in terms of price-to-book ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is noted, with some companies like Poly Development and Binjiang Group showing varying earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

2026 年 02 月 01 日 旧制度的复兴 ——"沃什时代"的美联储 北京时间 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场 热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美联储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和 华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。2025 年 8 月-2026 年 1 月底，最可能的"影子主席"在五 位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017 年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。2017 年 11 月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至 10 月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观 此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过 80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。1）11 月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立 性"的担忧；2）1 月末里 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a profit total of approximately RMB 200 million to 300 million in 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between RMB -1.3 billion and -1.8 billion [4]. - The airline industry is anticipated to experience steady growth in the passenger market in 2025, with the company's strategic initiatives showing positive results. These include enhancing long-haul capabilities, restoring international connections, and expanding into emerging markets [7]. - The company has reported significant improvements in operational metrics, with a 6.7% increase in overall Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and a 10.7% increase in Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) compared to 2024 [7]. Financial Data Summary - For 2025, total revenue is expected to reach RMB 136.75 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB -1.463 billion [6]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 6.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) forecasted at -11.4% [6]. - The total fleet size is projected to reach 826 aircraft by the end of 2025, representing a 14.2% increase compared to 2019 [7].

宏 观 研 究 PMI 数据 2026 年 01 月 31 日 1 月 PMI：春节效应前置 ——中采 PMI 点评（26.01） 事件：1 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 1 月 PMI 指数，制造业 PMI 为 49.3%、前值 50.1%； 非制造业 PMI 为 49.4%、前值 50.2%。 ⚫ 核心观点：1 月 PMI 回落幅度较大，或更多与 2026 年春节返乡提前、内需偏弱有关。 1 月制造业 PMI 再度降至荣枯线以下，或与统计因素及春节返乡提前有关。1 月，制造 业 PMI 回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.3%。一是 PMI 为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上 月的边际变化；因此 2025 年 12 月 PMI 冲高后，2026 年 1 月 PMI 回落至 50%以下为 大概率事件。二是 2025 年 12 月中下旬以来，劳动密集型行业开工持续下行或使今年"返 乡潮"提前，进而拖累制造业景气度；全国迁徙规模指数同比自 4%上行至 8.6%左右。 特征一：提前返乡对供给端压制明显，叠加内需表现偏弱，令制造业生产、新订单指数均 有明显下滑。PMI 统计对象是采购经理，新订单统计包括中间需求，生产 ...

财政数据 宏 观 研 究 2026 年 01 月 31 日 财政金融协同，蓄力"开门红" —— 12 月财政数据点评 事件：1 月 30 日，财政部公布 2025 年财政收支情况。2025 年，全国一般公共预算收入 216045 亿元，比上年下降 1.7%；全国一般公共预算支出 287395 亿元，比上年增长 1%。 核心观点：财政收支分化加剧，后续政策重心或转向"财政金融协同" 12 月广义财政收支呈现收入端深度调整、支出端维持韧性的收支显著分化特征。 12 月广义财 政收入同比-18.5%，较 11 月下滑 13.3 个百分点，创下年内最低水平；广义财政支出同比-0.7%， 较 11 月降幅收窄 1 个百分点。从预算完成度看，收入完成度不及往年同期，但支出端在年末 稳增长诉求下保持了相对强度，显示出年底在收入承压背景下财政仍在加快支出、托底经济。 收入端大幅回落主要受一般财政收入下滑拖累，土地出让收入则呈现小幅改善。12 月一般财政 收入同比骤降至-25%，或部分受到2024年同期的高基数效应影响。其中，非税收入同比-47.9% 成为最大拖累，或与下半年起非税收入征管规范有关。12 月政府性基金收入降幅收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].