债 券 周 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 31 日 高估值下转债抗回撤能力有限 ——转债周度跟踪 20260130 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 ⚫ 本周贵金属高位调整带动权益和转债市场明显回撤，高平价偏股转债估值环比下行幅度 较大，估值高位下转债抗风险能力较差。当前可转债市场定位已呈现四个关键特征：一是 从左侧思维转向右侧交易，不宜过早坚守；二是从配置价值转向交易价值，需警惕机构防 御性抛售带来的下行风险；三是从追求确定性收益转向衡量风险与回报比，短期冲高后应 再次评估其投资价值；四是从债性或衍生品定价转向机构行为与权益预期驱动，交易盘节 前止盈压力可能较大。因此，短期内应当积极防御、守住盈利，为节后低位布局做好准备。 结构方面，从关注高价、次新、不强赎的品种，转向配置 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is currently in a high position of the first phase of an upward trend, requiring a longer period of adjustment to digest the insufficient long-term cost-performance ratio after reaching historical valuation highs [4][7][8] - The "steady and far-reaching" policy is expected to accelerate the transition of the market from the current strong momentum phase to a new stage characterized by style switching and profit expansion, followed by a period of consolidation [4][8][25] - The report emphasizes four characteristics of the structural market at high valuation levels: 1) Difficulty in raising valuations, 2) Stricter conditions for upward breakthroughs, 3) High expectations for "perfect performance verification," and 4) Increased sensitivity to negative liquidity shocks [25][26] Group 2 - The mid-term judgment remains unchanged, suggesting that after the spring market ends, there will likely be a consolidation phase before a new upward stage begins, driven by clearer industrial trends and improved performance digestion [26][29] - The report highlights that the strong structural market of 2025 is characterized by cyclical Alpha and AI computing power leading the trend, with opportunities still present in cyclical Alpha investments and advanced manufacturing [26][29] - The report suggests that short-term effects of the "steady and far-reaching" policy may lead to a recovery of previously suppressed heavyweight stocks, with a focus on opportunities in overseas computing leaders and non-bank financial sectors [29]

房地产 2026 年 01 月 31 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com ⚫ 2026 年 1 月 29 日，证监会正式受理首批三只商业不动产 REITs，分别是汇添富上海地 产、中金唯品会以及华安锦江 REIT。 点评： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报，覆盖底层资产为办公楼、酒店和奥特莱斯。1 月 29 日，上交所公示首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报受理：1）汇添富上海地产 REIT，底层 资产为上海黄浦区鼎保大厦、鼎博大厦两个办公楼；预计募集规模 40.02 亿元、2026-27 年净现金流分派 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《计算机板块持仓分析！CPU、沙箱、 Agent 全面分析！ ——计算机行业周报 20260119-20260124》 2026/01/24 《台积电 CapEx 指引算力需求确定性！ 2025 业绩前瞻！——计算机行业周报 20260112-20260116》 2026/01/17 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@swsresearch.com 曹峥 A0230525040002 caozheng@swsresearch.com 陈晴华 A0230525100001 chenqh@swsresearch.com 罗宇琦 A0230124070004 luoyq@swsresearch.com 联系人 王开元 A0230125030001 wangky ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the AI Agent and 3D printing sectors, highlighting significant growth potential and investment opportunities in these areas [2][22]. Core Insights - The AI Agent field is experiencing rapid breakthroughs in ecological positioning, engineering, and personalization, with notable advancements in task completion capabilities [2][3]. - The collaboration between SiKan Technology and TuoZhu is expected to drive demand for consumer-grade 3D scanners, facilitating the growth of the 3D printing market [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI Agents as efficiency amplifiers, suggesting that they will enhance existing software ecosystems rather than disrupt them [17]. Summary by Sections AI Agent Developments - Recent updates in the AI Agent domain include the launch of MiniMax's desktop and "expert agent," which integrates AI into local work environments [18]. - The Clawdbot project has gained significant attention, demonstrating the feasibility of a system-level AI agent capable of executing complex workflows autonomously [4][11]. - The Kimi 2.5 release enhances agent cluster capabilities, allowing for high-level office automation and significantly reducing end-to-end processing time by up to 80% [19][23]. 3D Printing Market - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is entering a rapid expansion phase, driven by lower prices and simplified operations, with a projected growth rate of 52.5% in 2025 [22][39]. - The partnership between SiKan Technology and TuoZhu aims to develop consumer-grade 3D scanners, which will lower the entry barrier for 3D printing by enabling users to create high-precision models without extensive modeling skills [22][39]. - The report identifies key players in the 3D printing industry, including SiKan Technology and TuoZhu, as well as emerging opportunities in the consumer market [43]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as digital economy leadership, AIGC applications, and new industrialization, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [22][43]. - The AI application layer's investment logic is shifting towards evaluating how AI can enhance product efficiency and user engagement, indicating a potential valuation premium for companies that can deliver reliable AI solutions [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 800-1,000 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5-2.7 billion yuan [3]. - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 130-190 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 408-414 million yuan [3]. - The report highlights that the company is increasing its passenger capacity and optimizing its cargo operations, which are expected to enhance profitability [5]. - The decline in oil prices is projected to improve cost structures, with a significant foreign exchange gain expected due to the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar [5]. - The report suggests that the aviation industry is entering a golden investment era, driven by supply-demand mismatches and increasing international travel demand [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 179.291 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 702 million yuan, with a substantial increase of 598.7% compared to the previous year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.05 yuan, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [4]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 9.8% in 2025 to 16.9% by 2027 [4]. - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 2.5% in 2025 to 22.1% by 2027 [4].

2026年01月31日 首批 8 单商业不动产 REITs 正式申 FF I 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2026.01.26-2026.01.30） 5 单 REITs 申报终 (四季报出炉。 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2026.01.19-2026.01.23) 》 2026/01/24 《运营整体向好,板块内部分化一 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2026.01.12-2026.01.16) 》 2026/01/17 三单项目集中获问 《市场开门红， 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2026.01.05-2026.01.09) 》 2026/01/10 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yanqxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ● 1 月 29-30 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the home appliance sector, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies that exhibit low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth potential [5][10]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a decline of 2.4% in the appliance index while the broader index rose by 1.1% [5][6]. - Major companies like Opple Lighting, Boss Electric, and Midea Group showed positive performance, while companies like Ecovacs, Lek Electric, and Huaxiang suffered significant declines [5][8]. - Production data for major appliances in February 2026 revealed substantial year-on-year declines, with air conditioner production down 31.6%, refrigerators down 17%, and washing machines down 3.2% [10][11]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. **Dividend Play**: Leading white and black appliance companies are characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, providing a safety margin and growth potential [5]. 2. **Technology Transition**: Key component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging tech sectors such as robotics and semiconductor cooling, indicating a shift in business strategy [5]. 3. **Export Opportunities**: Major appliance firms are well-positioned in global markets, with production bases in various regions to mitigate trade risks and capitalize on demand in emerging markets [5]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a significant drop in production for major appliances in February 2026, with air conditioners at 11.49 million units, refrigerators at 6 million units, and washing machines at 6.3 million units, all showing declines compared to the previous year [10]. - The report also mentions a planned acquisition by Minexplosion Optoelectronics, which aims to purchase a 49% stake in Xiamen Maida and a 51% stake in cash, with a total consideration not exceeding 250 million yuan [11]. Data Observations - Sales data for cleaning appliances in December 2025 showed an increase in volume but a decrease in revenue and average price, with robotic vacuum sales up 29.11% but revenue down 2.14% [34]. - Personal care products like hair dryers saw a decline in sales volume and revenue, while electric shaver sales revenue increased despite a drop in volume [40][41]. Macro Economic Environment - As of January 30, 2026, the USD to RMB exchange rate showed a decrease of 0.87% since the beginning of the year, indicating potential impacts on import costs for raw materials [47]. Company Announcements - Ecovacs announced a bond buyback option, with no investors opting for the buyback during the specified period, indicating confidence in the company's stock performance [63]. - Other companies like Aojiahua and Foshan Lighting provided profit forecasts indicating significant declines in net profits for 2025, reflecting broader industry challenges [60][64].

2026 年 01 月 31 日 首批 8 单商业不动产 REITs 正式申 报！ ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2026.01.26-2026.01.30） 相关研究 《四季报出炉，5 单 REITs 申报终 止——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2026.01.19-2026.01.23）》 2026/01/24 《运营整体向好，板块内部分化— —公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2026.01.12-2026.01.16）》 2026/01/17 《市场开门红，三单项目集中获问 询——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2026.01.05-2026.01.09）》 2026/01/10 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, particularly recommending leading companies in the white and black goods categories due to their low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth potential [5][11]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a decline of 2.4% in the home appliance index while the broader index rose by 1.1% [5][6]. - Production data for major home appliances in February 2026 shows significant year-on-year declines: air conditioners down 31.6%, refrigerators down 17%, and washing machines down 3.2% [11][12]. - The report highlights the resilience of leading companies in the face of international trade fluctuations and emphasizes the growth potential in emerging markets [5][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The home appliance sector index decreased by 2.4%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.1% [5][6]. - Key companies such as Opple Lighting, Boss Electric, and Midea Group showed gains, while companies like Ecovacs and Lek Electric faced significant declines [5][8]. Production Data - February 2026 production figures indicate a total of 11.49 million air conditioners produced, a 31.6% decrease from the previous year; 6 million refrigerators, down 17%; and 6.3 million washing machines, down 3.2% [11][12]. Company Developments - Minexplosion Optoelectronics announced plans to acquire a 49% stake in Xiamen Maida and a cash purchase of 51% stake in Xiamen Precision, with a total cash consideration not exceeding 250 million yuan [12]. Market Trends - The report notes a year-on-year increase in sales of cleaning appliances, with robotic vacuum sales up 29.11% in December 2025, although sales revenue decreased by 2.14% [35][40]. - Personal care products showed mixed results, with hairdryer sales down 26.36% but electric shaver sales revenue up by 1.78% [42][45]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. Leading white and black goods companies with low valuations and high dividends [5]. 2. Core component manufacturers expanding into new technology sectors [5]. 3. Companies like Ecovacs and Roborock benefiting from strong demand for cleaning appliances [5][11]. Economic Environment - As of January 30, 2026, the USD to RMB exchange rate has decreased by 0.87% since the beginning of the year [50][51]. - Retail sales in December 2025 showed a slight increase of 0.86% year-on-year, while disposable income for urban residents rose by 4.27% [52][53]. Regulatory Developments - Shenzhen's three-year action plan aims to enhance the consumption environment, promoting smart home products and digital consumption [73][75]. - The plan encourages the integration of artificial intelligence in home appliances and aims to boost home renovation and smart home adoption [75][76].