行业点评报告 | 银行 证券研究报告 分析师：王尘 S0190520060001 wangchenyjy@xyzq.com.cn 社融增速回升，化债置换持续影响信贷读数 ——2024 年 12 月金融数据点评 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 01 月 15 日 | 相关研究 【兴证银行】多家银行获股东增持，关 注年初开门红——银行业周报 （2025.1.6-2025.1.12）-2025.01.12 【兴证银行】平安举牌工商银行 H，大 行中期分红陆续派发——银行业周报 （2024.12.30-2025.1.5）-2025.01.05 【兴证银行】理财规模回升，破净率下 降——银行理财 2024 年 11 月月报- 2024.12.30 分析师：陈绍兴 S0190517070003 chenshaox@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点： ⚫ 社融增速回升至 8.0%。2024 全年社融新增 32.26 万亿元，同比少增 3.32 万亿元，其 中 2024 年 12 月社融新增 2.86 万亿元，同比多增 9249 亿元，拆分结构来看： （1）20 ...

行业周报 | 医药生物 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 1 月 14 日 相关研究 【兴证医药】商保是国家医保有效补 充，有望提升创新药械可及性——行业 周报 2024.12.9-2024.12.15-2024.12.19 【兴证医药】医药生物行业 2025 年度策 略报告：创新渐入佳境，国内海外皆开 花-2024.12.15 【兴证医药】加速推动商保，多元支付 体系有望促进创新药等领域发展——医 药行业周报 2024.12.2-2024.12.8- 2024.12.10 分析师：孙媛媛 S0190515090001 sunyuanyuan@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/17 ⚫ 2025 年 1 月 6 日-2025 年 1 月 10 日医药生物板块跑输沪深 300 指数，医药生物板块 全周下跌 3.16%，沪深 300 指数全周下跌 1.13%。 ⚫ 1 月 8 日，国家发改委及财政部联合印发《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新 和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，其中和医疗行业相关内容包括：1）加大重点领域设备 更新项目支持力度； ...

行业周报 | 家用电器 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 01 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | 相关研究 【兴证家电】中央加力支持家电以旧换 新，关注家电政策催化-2025.01.08 【兴证家电】国补接力叠加高股息，看 好板块估值业绩共振，同时关注 CES 扫 地机电视新品-2025.01.06 【兴证家电】内外需求共振，看好家电 龙头跨年行情-2024.12.29 分析师：颜晓晴 S0190521020002 yanxiaoqing@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：苏子杰 S0190522070005 suzijie@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王雨晴 S0190523070007 wangyuqing@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：周庆 zhouqing@xyzq.com.cn 2024 年 12 月家电内销提速增长，继续看好 2025 年国补拉动弹性 投资要点： ⚫ 2024 年以旧换新政策效果显著，24M9 起家电内需景气大幅改善，24M12 各品类终端 零售环比提速增长。 1）空调：根据 AVC 数据，24M12 线下额、量、价 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is **Recommended (Maintained)** [4] Core Views - **Domestic demand remains a key driver of economic growth**, with a positive outlook for leading consumer companies [6] - **Optional consumption** is expected to see both performance and valuation improvements as the economy gradually recovers and market expectations for stable growth policies rise [6] - **Social services sector**: Recovery in Q4 remains weak, but further downside is limited due to low base effects in 2024 [6] - **Human resources sector**: A preferred cyclical sector with strong elasticity, benefiting from increased corporate orders and demand for professional HR services [6] - **Offline beauty and personal care**: Long-term growth potential driven by supply-side innovation, though current sales expectations for the Spring Festival are weak [6] - **Cosmetics**: Growth has slowed, with structural changes in online channels, but leading domestic brands continue to execute well with big product strategies [6] - **Personal care**: Competitive landscape is better than cosmetics, with rapid growth in online channels providing opportunities for leading brands [6] - **Pet industry**: Pet food, especially staple food, shows strong resilience, while pet health products and accessories are growing rapidly [6] - **Duty-free sector**: High base effects from daigou have been eliminated, and overseas diversion is weakening, with policy support expected to narrow sales declines [6] - **Retail sector**: Supermarkets, department stores, and specialty chains have seen significant declines, while commercial properties and e-commerce services have been more stable [6] - **Gold and jewelry**: Currently in a valuation bottoming phase, with demand expected to recover during the Spring Festival season [6] Sub-Sector Performance and Trends Social Services - **Performance**: The Shenwan Social Services Index fell 3.38% during the period (2025.01.06-2025.01.10), ranking 25th among 31 primary industry indices [8] - **Key stocks**: Zhangjiajie (+14.92%), Di'A Shares (+13.51%), Xiangyuan Culture (+7.14%) were top gainers, while Mio Exhibition (-16.57%), Chaohongji (-13.35%), and Zhongke Cloud Network (-12.96%) were top decliners [13] Retail - **Performance**: The Shenwan Retail Index fell 6.57%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry indices [8] - **Key stocks**: Kaichun Co (+29.32%), Suhao Hongye (+15.74%), and Guangzhou Baiyunshan (+13.44%) were top gainers, while Zhongbai Group (-31.43%), Baida Group (-24.22%), and Dongbai Group (-21.84%) were top decliners [13] Beauty and Personal Care - **Performance**: The Shenwan Beauty and Personal Care Index fell 2.73%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry indices [8] - **Key stocks**: Xinhan New Materials (+11.98%), Jinbo Bio (+5.49%), and Lihe Technology (+3.26%) were top gainers, while Furuida (-8.87%), Shuiyang Co (-6.32%), and Haoyue Nursing (-5.75%) were top decliners [13] Tourism and Hospitality - **Spring Festival travel**: Cross-regional travel is expected to reach 9 billion trips during the 2025 Spring Festival [15] - **Hotel and OTA**: Student group air ticket bookings increased by over 10% during the winter vacation [15] - **Catering**: Gu Ming passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with GMV reaching 16.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 20.4% YoY [15] Gold and Jewelry - **Lao Fengxiang**: Launched its official Tmall flagship store, introducing a new snake-themed series for the New Year [16] Duty-Free - **Hainan Duty-Free**: Extended the lease for the Haikou Duty-Free Store for 60 months, starting from 2026 [17] - **Shenzhen Duty-Free**: The first urban duty-free store in Shenzhen is set to open in Shenye Shangcheng [17] Retail and E-commerce - **Policy support**: The government has increased subsidies for home appliance replacements, with single-item subsidies up to 20% of the sales price [19] - **E-commerce**: Tmall's New Year Shopping Festival saw significant discounts, with government subsidies reaching up to 2,000 yuan for certain categories [22] Beauty and Personal Care Industry - **M&A activity**: Unilever is in talks to acquire Indian skincare brand Minimalist for approximately $350 million [26] - **IPO activity**: 11 beauty-related companies successfully went public or listed on the New Third Board in 2024 [26] - **Product launches**: Estée Lauder launched its new Platinum 6D Black Diamond Eye Cream [28] Company Updates - **Jinling Hotel**: Terminated its Beijing hotel project, resulting in a loss of approximately 16 million yuan [31] - **Hainan Airport**: Extended the lease for its duty-free store in Haikou for 60 months [32] - **Lishang Guochao**: The company's chairman will temporarily act as the general manager following the resignation of the current GM [33] - **Boshi Glasses**: Announced a cash dividend of 1.10 yuan per 10 shares [34] - **Guangbai Co**: The chairman and several executives resigned due to work adjustments [35] - **Modern Dental**: Completed the acquisition of 74% of Hexa Ceram Company Limited [38] - **Runben Co**: A major shareholder reduced its stake by 1.36% [39] - **Fuerjia**: Announced a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares [40]

Industry Rating - The industry rating for the communication sector is "Recommended (Maintained)" [1] Core Views - Overseas computing power chains show significant cost-performance advantages [2] - Key investment points include performance metrics such as 1.50%, 1.12%, 1.64%, 2.38%, 300, 1.13%, 0.45%, and 2.02% for the period 01.06-01.12 [2] Weekly Investment Overview - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology is highlighted, with developments in 800G EML, 1.6T, 400G, and 3.2T expected by 2025 [3][9] - AEC and ASIC technologies are also mentioned in the context of CPO advancements [3][9] - CPO/OIO technologies are expected to evolve, with 1.6T and 3.2T being key milestones [9] Industry Dynamics - CES 2025 featured AI Project DIGITS, which includes AI PC developments and a significant AI-related metric of 3000 [9] - SpaceX's IFT-7 mission is noted, with a 25% increase in performance and a 3.1 metric [10] - Starlink's performance in 2024 showed a 33.9% increase, with a total of 2.89 and 2781.63 metrics [10] - C114 reported a 57.8% increase in performance from January to December 2024, with a total of 28943.08 [10] Major Events Reminder - Key events for communication industry companies from January 13 to January 19 include shareholder meetings for companies like Ovxian Communication, Eastsoft, Kinghelm, Broadex, and Chuangyi Technology [11] - Other notable events include the lifting of restricted shares for Chuangyi Technology and shareholder meetings for companies like Hytera, Youfang Technology, Feiling Kesi, and Dingxin Communication [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on long-term shareholder returns by changing the purpose of its share repurchase plan from employee incentives to share cancellation, which will enhance EPS and long-term investment value [5] - The company has a rich pipeline of games, with several major titles set to launch in 2025, including "Douluo Continent: Legend of the Evil" and "World of Zhigu" [5] - The company is leveraging AI technology to automate and streamline game development processes, enhancing efficiency and reshaping game production workflows [5] - The company's financial performance is expected to grow steadily, with projected EPS of 0.82/0.97/1.11 yuan for 2024-2026 and PE ratios of 15.8/13.3/11.6 times based on the closing price on January 10 [5] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 4295 million yuan in 2023 to 7152 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 1462 million yuan in 2023 to 2387 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.9% [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 83.5% in 2023 to 84.5% in 2026 [5] - ROE is projected to decline from 27.9% in 2023 to 22.5% in 2026, reflecting a gradual decrease in profitability [5] Game Pipeline and AI Integration - The company has a strong game pipeline, with titles like "Douluo Continent: Legend of the Evil" and "World of Zhigu" set to launch in 2025 [5] - The company is integrating AI technology into game development, using its proprietary "Xingyi" model to automate and enhance various aspects of game production [5] Shareholder Returns - The company has been consistently paying dividends and has implemented a semi-annual cash dividend policy since 2023 [5] - The company's executives have committed to using their post-tax dividend income to increase their holdings in the company over the next five years [5]

行业周报 | 轻工制造 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 01 月 13 日 | 相关研究 【兴证轻工】周观点：新年伊始多地家 居国补政策衔接执行，外盘浆价涨价落 地-2025.01.05 【兴证轻工】周观点：多地发布明年国 补工作通知，造纸行业景气度回升- 2024.12.29 【兴证轻工】周观点：两会释放积极信 号，重视内需主线布局-2024.12.16 分析师：林寰宇 S0190524080006 linhuanyu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：侯宜芳 S0190522100001 houyifang@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：储天舒 chutianshu1@xyzq.com.cn 周观点：出口板块 2024Q4 业绩或延续，看好 消费品补贴政策扩容 投资要点： ⚫ 风险提示：原材料价格波动；需求大幅下滑；政策风险。 一、行情回顾 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/11 ⚫ 家居板块：（1）地产方面，截至 2025 年 1 月 5 日，全国重点 30 城 1 月新房累计成交 面积同比-11%，但一线 4 城新房累计成 ...

Industry Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in aluminum, copper, and gold [1][4][12] Core Views - Aluminum prices are rising, and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is recovering due to declining costs and inventory reduction [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise further due to strong inflation expectations and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3] - Gold prices continue to trend upward, supported by geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, and central bank purchases [4] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, but the market remains under pressure due to oversupply [5] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.00% during the reporting period, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.34 percentage points [21] - Rare earth and magnetic materials sectors showed the largest gains [23] Industrial Metals Aluminum - Aluminum prices increased by 1.54% on SHFE and 2.99% on LME [24] - Electrolytic aluminum inventories decreased by 5.73% on SHFE and 1.31% on LME [25] - Electrolytic aluminum profitability improved, with ton profits rising [45] Copper - Copper prices rose by 3.22% on SHFE and 2.02% on LME [24] - Copper inventories decreased by 5.41% on SHFE and 1.99% on LME [25] - Copper prices are expected to benefit from inflation expectations and supportive policies [3] Zinc - Zinc prices fell by 2.11% on SHFE and 1.00% on LME [24] - Zinc inventories decreased by 10.78% on SHFE and 7.06% on LME [25] Tin - Tin prices increased by 3.32% on SHFE and 3.34% on LME [24] - Tin inventories remained stable, with a slight increase in social inventories [36] Precious Metals Gold - Gold prices rose by 2.44% on COMEX and 1.19% on SHFE [74] - Central banks continued to purchase gold, with China adding 10 tons in December 2024 [43] - Gold ETF holdings increased, reflecting strong investor interest [44] Silver - Silver prices increased by 3.99% on COMEX and 2.19% on SHFE [74] - Silver ETF holdings declined, indicating weaker investor sentiment compared to gold [45] Energy Metals and Rare Earths Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased slightly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 1.07% [112] - Lithium inventories grew, and production is expected to decline in January 2025 [67][71] Cobalt and Nickel - Cobalt prices remained stable, while nickel prices showed mixed trends [112] - Nickel production is expected to decline in January 2025, with a 2.6% drop in nickel pig iron operating rates [76] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices remained strong, with some products like terbium oxide increasing by 2.65% [90] - Rare earth magnet exports from China reached 4,796 tons in November 2024 [94] Industry Developments - Zangge Mining is undergoing a potential change in control, with Zijin Mining Group as a potential buyer [177] - Northern Rare Earth adjusted its rare earth concentrate prices for Q1 2025 to 18,618 yuan/ton [178] - Xingye Silver-Tin's subsidiary received approval for a mining expansion project, increasing capacity to 2.97 million tons/year [179] - Alloy Investment expects a significant increase in net profit for 2024, driven by new energy projects [181]

相关研究 【兴证化工】化工行业周报———央行宣 布择机降准降息有望带来龙头估值修复 机遇，继续关注化工核心资产及新材料成 长-2025.01.05 【兴证化工】化工行业周报———乙烷进 口关税下调，光刻胶企业恒坤新材 IPO 获 受理，继续关注化工核心资产及新材料成 长（20241223-20241227）-2024.12.30 【兴证化工】化工行业周报———OLED 发光材料采购量创新高，继续重点关注化 工核心资产及新材料成长 （20241216-20241220）-2024.12.22 S0190523070006 liuzihan@xyzq.com.cn 行业周报 | 基础化工 证券研究报告 分析师：吉金 S0190522030003 jijin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张勋 S0190521100002 zhangxun19@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：陈垒 S0190524070001 chenlei22@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 1 月 12 日 财政部积极定调财政政策、BASF 发函调涨 TDI 价格，继续关注化工核心资产及新材料成 长 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating for the food and beverage sector is "Recommended (Maintained)" [1] Core Views - The report focuses on the feedback from liquor sales verification and the channel transformation in the snack industry [2] - Liquor giants are continuing their repayment processes, with a focus on verifying sales during the Spring Festival [2] - The repayment progress is slightly slower due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 and the ongoing pressure on sales [2] - The demand for liquor during the Spring Festival is relatively rigid, with a more concentrated consumption pattern during the peak season [2] - The 100-300 yuan price range shows stronger resilience [2] - Wuliangye has temporarily halted the supply of its eighth-generation Pu Wu due to low prices in some regions, aiming to stabilize the market and enhance brand value [2] - The WeChat Blue Packet test has expanded, bringing attention to the incremental growth in the snack channel [3] - WeChat and WeChat video accounts have significant potential for e-commerce development, with 13.82 billion monthly active users and a GMV of approximately 100 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - During the WeChat Blue Packet test, some merchants achieved impressive sales data, such as Three Squirrels, which saw a 500%+ increase in daily transactions and new customer acquisition on the first day of testing [3] - Luckin Coffee's gift set sales exceeded 10,000 units, with a 700% increase in visitor traffic on the day of the promotion [3] - Snack brands with strong brand power and high online operational capabilities are expected to benefit from the online gifting scenario [3] - In 2025, leading snack brands are expected to benefit from increased penetration in the vending system, new e-commerce traffic from WeChat stores, and supermarket product introductions [3] Key Recommendations - The food and beverage sector is expected to follow a two-step rhythm, with short-term expectations for fundamental improvements and a focus on industry leaders with high performance certainty and steadily increasing dividend rates [4] - In the liquor sector, the focus remains on high-quality leaders with strong performance certainty, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4] - Other recommended liquor companies include Jin Shiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhuijiu [4] - The beer sector remains a balanced offensive and defensive strategy, with recommended companies including Tsingtao Brewery and Yanjing Brewery [4] - In the food sector, the focus is on leading companies in high-quality tracks, with a ranking of dairy products > catering supply chain > snacks > soft drinks [4] - Recommended food companies include Yili, New Hope Dairy, Zhongju High-tech, Baoli Food, Ligao Food, Yanjin Shop, and Dongpeng Beverage [4] Market Performance Review - The food and beverage index fell by 3.46% this week (January 6-10, 2025), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.33 percentage points [4] - Among the sub-sectors of food and beverages, only the soft drinks sector (+5.96%) saw an increase this week [4] - Since the beginning of 2025, the food and beverage index has fallen by 6.63%, ranking 18th out of 31 Shenwan primary sub-sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points [13] - The soft drinks sector has risen by 4.38% since the beginning of 2025 [13] Fund Holdings and Valuation - In Q3 2024, the fund holdings ratio for the food and beverage sector was 10.82%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21] - The liquor sector's fund holdings ratio was 9.96% in Q3 2024, up by 0.05 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21] - As of January 10, 2025, the food and beverage sector's P/E ratio (TTM) was 19.93 times, compared to the CSI 300's P/E ratio (TTM) of 11.71 times [24] - The liquor and beer sectors had P/E ratios (TTM) of 18.51 and 24.57 times, respectively, as of January 10, 2025 [24] Macro and Industry Data Tracking - In December 2024, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the food, tobacco, and alcohol CPI remaining flat [27] - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year in December 2024 [27] - In November 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with catering revenue, grain and oil food, and tobacco and alcohol increasing by 4.0%, 10.1%, and -3.1%, respectively [27] - In Q3 2024, the per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents increased by 4.5% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively [27] Liquor Pricing - The price of Feitian Maotai fluctuated slightly, with the latest boxed and loose bottle prices at 2260 and 2230 yuan per bottle, respectively [37] - The price of Pu Wu (eighth generation) was stable at 950 yuan per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 remained stable at 860 yuan per bottle [37] - In the sub-high-end category, the price of Jiannanchun Crystal Sword remained stable at 410 yuan per bottle, and the price of Qinghua 20 was 358 yuan per bottle [37]