行业周报 | 计算机 证券研究报告 相关研究 【兴证计算机】eCall 产业跟踪：国标 AECS 有序推进，市场潜力巨大 -2024.12.29 【兴证计算机】AI 产业跟踪：鲶鱼效应发 酵，产业催化密集-2024.12.22 【兴证计算机】2025 年年度策略报告： 科技自强，乘风破浪 20241215-2024.12.16 分析师：蒋佳霖 S0190515050002 jiangjialin@xyzq.com.cn S0190518110001 sunqian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：陈鑫 S0190522030001 chenxin21@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：杨本鸿 S0190522080001 yangbenhong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张旭光 S0190523090002 zhangxuguang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：杨海盟 S0190523070001 yanghaimeng@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：桂杨 S0190524040005 guiyang@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 05 日 AI ...

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行业跟踪报告 | 电子 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 04 日 相关研究 【兴证电子】未来 AI 功能在智能眼镜市 场渗透率超六成，看好端侧 AI 硬件创新 浪潮-2024.12.29 【兴证电子】周报：闪极科技发布 AI 眼 镜，看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮- 2024.12.22 【兴证电子】周报：谷歌发布操作系统 Android XR，看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮- 2024.12.15 分析师：姚康 S0190520080007 yaokang@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：刘珂瑞 liukerui@xyzq.com.cn 手机专题：手机国补正式落地，看好国内手机产业链 投资要点： ⚫ 风险提示：补贴政策对于手机销量的拉动不及预期，上游供应商价格压力加剧。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/10 ⚫ 内需的释放对于经济增长至关重要，而当前中国消费市场是个增量和存量并重的市场， 新产品的消费和已有产品的更新换代共同支撑整体消费市场。以旧换新、消费补贴等政 策能够激发消费者的购买欲，刺激消费，拉动内需，推动更高质量、更环保、更智能的 产品进入千家万户，促进对应 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (First Time)" [1] Core Views - The report highlights TCL Smart Home as a leading player in the refrigerator ODM export market, emphasizing its return to core business after TCL's acquisition [2][3] Company Overview - **History**: The company has a strong focus on refrigerator ODM exports and has undergone two ownership changes, with TCL taking full control [6][14] - **Governance**: TCL's complete acquisition has positioned the company for strategic growth [14][15] - **Financials**: The main business of refrigerators is steadily expanding, with continuous improvement in profitability [16] Industry Insights - **Global Trends**: There is a clear trend of upgrading refrigerators globally, with significant opportunities in overseas markets [27] - **Overseas Market**: The report notes stable volume growth and price increases, indicating a broad market potential [27] - **China Market**: The Chinese market shows slight volume decline but stable price growth, suggesting a steady growth trajectory [32] Competitive Advantages - **Scale and Strategy**: The company benefits from leading scale, a premium product strategy, and platform synergies [34] - **Asset Integration**: The completion of TCL's asset injection into the refrigerator and washing machine segment, along with ongoing subsidiary share buybacks, is expected to enhance operational efficiency [55] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - **Revenue Projections**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 151.8 billion in 2023, growing to 222.8 billion by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.1%, 19.8%, 10.8%, and 10.6% respectively [3][64] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to increase from 0.73 in 2023 to 1.18 by 2026 [64] - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.1 in 2023 to 11.2 by 2026, indicating potential for value appreciation [64]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [27] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the dividend rates of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the construction sector are expected to increase due to market capitalization management policies, presenting opportunities for high dividend yields and low valuations [36][45] - The report highlights that the valuation of major construction SOEs remains low, with many trading below their net asset value, indicating a potential for price appreciation as dividend policies improve [17][45] Summary by Sections Dividend Rates and Yields in the Construction Sector - The report provides detailed data on the dividend rates and yields of various central SOEs, indicating that companies like China State Construction and China Railway have seen their dividend rates increase from 18.44% in 2018 to 20.82% in 2023 [17][44] - The average dividend yield for the construction sector in 2023 was reported at 3.00%, with central SOEs yielding 3.22% [52] Market Capitalization Management - The report discusses the implementation of market capitalization management policies by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), which will include performance evaluations based on market capitalization management [36] - It mentions that these policies encourage SOEs to enhance shareholder returns through increased cash dividends and share buybacks [36][45] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend construction SOEs, citing their improved cash flow and the potential for increased dividends as a result of ongoing debt reduction efforts [45] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China State Construction, China Railway, and several local SOEs such as Sichuan Road and Bridge and Anhui Construction [45]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The bond fund issuance in November saw a significant increase, with 20 new bond funds launched, totaling an issuance scale of 375.16 billion, representing a 178.2% increase month-on-month [2] - The largest bond fund issued was the Penghua Zhongzhai 0-3 Year Policy Financial Bond, with an issuance scale of 79.90 billion [2] - Retail bond funds primarily consisted of medium to long-term pure bond and mixed secondary bond funds, benefiting from the current rapid decline in interest rates [2] - The issuance of mixed funds remained stable, with 13 new mixed funds launched in November, totaling 40.11 billion, a 69.7% increase month-on-month [21] - The report highlights a trend of increasing interest in passive index funds, particularly those linked to broad indices like the CSI A500, with significant inflows observed [16][30] Summary by Sections Bond Funds - In November, 20 bond funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 375.16 billion, marking a 178.2% increase from the previous month [2] - The issuance included 4 mixed secondary bond funds totaling 44.94 billion, 1 mixed primary bond fund at 3.81 billion, and 11 medium to long-term pure bond funds at 157.35 billion, which saw a 356.1% increase [2][28] - The report emphasizes that the increase in bond fund issuance is largely driven by institutional capital inflows [2] Mixed Funds - A total of 13 mixed funds were launched in November, maintaining the same number as the previous month, with a total issuance scale of 40.11 billion, reflecting a 69.7% increase [21] - The report notes that the individual scale of newly issued mixed funds did not exceed 4 billion, indicating a subdued environment for actively managed equity funds [21] Passive Index Funds - The report indicates a strong interest in passive index funds, particularly those linked to broad indices, with significant inflows noted in the CSI A500 ETF [16][30] - The issuance of index funds increased significantly, with 101 new index funds launched in November, marking a notable expansion in the product lineup [38] Overall Fund Market - As of the end of November, the net asset value of public funds reached 31.99 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5% [10] - The total number of public fund shares reached 29.37 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see an upward trend in fundamentals supported by policies, with recommendations to increase allocation in automotive stocks [13]. - The recent "old-for-new" policy has shown significant stimulating effects, leading to increased retail sales across various brands, especially in the fourth quarter [13]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in price wars among luxury and joint venture brands in the second half of 2024, indicating improved pricing stability [13]. Weekly Dynamics - Xiaomi's automotive division has integrated the VLM visual language model into its systems, enhancing the vehicle's ability to recognize complex road environments [11]. - NIO has announced organizational adjustments in its smart driving department to strengthen delivery capabilities, with a focus on end-to-end delivery [12]. - The automotive sector's performance from December 23 to December 27, 2024, showed a 0.7% increase, underperforming the broader market indices [39]. Sector Performance and Valuation - The automotive sector's PE-TTM (unadjusted) stands at 29.7, with a historical valuation percentile of 73.1% [41]. - Sub-sectors such as passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles have PE-TTM values of 30.5 and 34.4, respectively, with historical valuation percentiles of 97.5% and 63.3% [41]. Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the automotive sector include BYD, Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile, and Li Auto for the complete vehicle segment, while recommending Fuyao Glass and Top Group for the parts segment due to their strong performance and dividend yields [13].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting significant growth potential in the near to mid-term [43]. Core Insights - The "Red Packet" gifting market is projected to grow substantially, with estimates indicating a market size of approximately 2340.4 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 73% [12][67]. - The integration of WeChat's ecosystem with social commerce is emphasized, suggesting that the "Red Packet" gifting mechanism will drive traffic to WeChat stores, enhancing overall sales [43]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in agency operations and retail, particularly in beauty and personal care companies, which are expected to benefit from the evolving gifting landscape [43]. Summary by Sections Market Size and Growth - The gifting economy market size is expected to reach 2340.4 billion by 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 73% [12][67]. - The report forecasts a significant increase in the market size, with projections ranging from 138.2 billion to 829.2 billion in the coming years [53][67]. WeChat Ecosystem - The WeChat platform is positioned as a key player in the social commerce space, with the "Red Packet" feature serving as a catalyst for driving sales to WeChat stores [43]. - The report notes that the integration of gifting within the WeChat ecosystem is expected to enhance user engagement and increase transaction volumes [43]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for investment in agency operations and retail sectors, particularly in beauty and personal care companies, which are poised to capitalize on the gifting trend [43]. - The analysis suggests that companies focusing on innovative gifting solutions and leveraging social media platforms will likely see substantial growth [43].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [33] Core Insights - As of the end of November 2024, the total scale of the bank wealth management market reached 29.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 419.8 billion yuan from the previous month, primarily due to deposits flowing into wealth management products following a decline in deposit rates [8][39] - The structure of existing wealth management products shows that cash management products account for 25.7%, fixed income products for 72.0%, mixed products for 2.0%, equity products for 0.1%, and commodity and financial derivatives for 0.04% [8] - The top three institutions by the scale of existing wealth management products are: China Merchants Bank Wealth Management (2.41 trillion yuan), Industrial Bank Wealth Management (2.14 trillion yuan), and Agricultural Bank Wealth Management (1.98 trillion yuan) [8] Summary by Sections 1. Existing Wealth Management Market Overview - The existing wealth management market scale as of November 2024 is 29.75 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 419.8 billion yuan [8] - The product type distribution includes cash management (7.64 trillion yuan), fixed income (21.42 trillion yuan), mixed (585 billion yuan), equity (262 million yuan), and commodity/financial derivatives (122 million yuan) [8] 2. Wealth Management Product Issuance Market Overview - In November 2024, the issuance scale of bank wealth management products was 495.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6 billion yuan from the previous month [41] - The issuance structure shows that closed-end net value products accounted for 91.5% of the total, while open-end net value products accounted for 8.5% [44] - The issuance scale by product type indicates that fixed income products dominate, with a scale of 4824 billion yuan, accounting for 97.4% [60] 3. Wealth Management Product Net Value Tracking - As of November 2024, the number of wealth management products with a unit net value below par was 2244, accounting for 3.42% of the total, with a cumulative net value below par of 1624, accounting for 2.67% [51] 4. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a self-regulatory initiative to optimize the management of non-bank interbank deposit rates, aiming to align with central bank policy rate changes [54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic computing power chains, predicting that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the domestic large model computing power arms race, with major capital expenditures expected to exceed forecasts [10][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the first eleven months of 2024, China's telecom business revenue reached 1,594.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [15]. - In Q3 2024, cloud infrastructure service spending in mainland China reached 10.2 billion USD, growing by 11% year-on-year, with Alibaba Cloud, Huawei Cloud, and Tencent Cloud maintaining a combined market share of 70% [15]. - The report highlights the successful pilot of a multi-core fiber solution by Changfei Fiber and Tianjin Mobile [15]. Investment Highlights - ByteDance's MAU rapidly surpassed competitors, with a projected capital expenditure of 80 billion yuan in 2024, expected to double to 160 billion in 2025, focusing heavily on AI computing power [23]. - The DeepSeek-V3 model was launched with 671 billion parameters and a training cost of only 5.58 million USD, outperforming several leading models [24]. - The report recommends focusing on domestic supply chains for optical modules, IDC, copper cables, and connectors due to the increasing demand for self-controlled computing power [23]. Key Recommendations - The report suggests paying attention to companies such as DingTong Technology, XinYiSheng, and ZhongJi XuChuang for potential investment opportunities [25].