证 券 研 究 报 告 ASML（ASML）2025Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 AI 驱动需求高增，积压在手订单达 388 亿欧元 会议地点：线上 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 28 日 ASML 发布 2025 年 Q4 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。公 司财务季度 FY2025Q4 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CQ2025Q4。 2025Q4，公司实现营收 97.18 亿欧元，同比增长 4.9%，环比增长 29.3%；毛利 率 52.2%，同比提升 0.5pct，环比提升 0.6pct。2025 全年，公司实现营业收入 326.67 亿欧元，同比增长 15.6%；全年毛利率为 52.8%；全年净利润为 96 亿 欧元。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：1）25Q4，公司实现营业收入 97.18 亿欧元（QoQ+29.3%， YoY+4.9%），高于指引中值（指引范围 92-98 亿欧元）；季度毛利率 52.2% （QoQ+0.6pct，YoY+0.5pct），位于指引(51-53%)中位；季度净利润 28.4 亿欧 元，净利率 29.2%。2）2025 年，全年公司实现营业收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the home appliance industry, specifically for white goods, black goods, and two-wheeled vehicles [1]. Core Insights - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks has slightly increased, with a Q4 holding ratio of 3.14%, up by 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter. The over-allocation ratio for home appliances is 0.74%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points [10][9]. - The report anticipates that the continuation of national subsidy policies in 2026 will support domestic sales, while leading home appliance companies are expected to accelerate penetration into emerging markets such as Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, leading to steady growth in export revenues [10][9]. - The white goods sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, with a Q4 market value accounting for 1.58% of total fund holdings, up by 0.23 percentage points. The number of funds holding white goods stocks has increased by 79 [18][17]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, are expected to benefit from stable performance and high dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [63][64][65]. Summary by Sections Home Appliance Sector - The report indicates a slight recovery in the proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks, with a Q4 holding ratio of 3.14% and an over-allocation ratio of 0.74% [10][9]. - The white goods sector has seen a recovery in fund holdings, with a market value of 1.58% of total fund holdings, and an increase in the number of funds holding these stocks [18][17]. - The black goods sector has also experienced a slight increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 0.22%, up by 0.03 percentage points [28][29]. - The two-wheeled vehicle sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 0.74%, up by 0.08 percentage points [32][35]. Investment Recommendations - For white goods, the report recommends Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their strong performance and high dividend yields [63]. - In the black goods sector, companies like Hisense Visual and TCL Technology are highlighted for their technological leadership in the MiniLED field [63]. - For two-wheeled vehicles, the report suggests focusing on Ninebot, Aima Technology, and Yadea Holdings, as market demand is expected to concentrate on leading companies [63]. - In the kitchen small appliances sector, companies like Supor, Bear Electric, and Beiding Co. are recommended for their growth potential through brand expansion [63]. - The report also highlights electric tools companies such as Techtronic Industries and Greebo for their expected order growth due to rising market demand [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company has released its 2025 earnings forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 101 million to 151 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 68.85% to 53.44% [2]. - The company has introduced a 2026 restricted stock incentive plan, granting 2.2025 million shares at a price of 12.21 yuan per share, covering 85 management and core technical personnel [2]. - The company aims for revenue targets of no less than 50.90 billion yuan, 53.83 billion yuan, and 58.32 billion yuan for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively [2]. - The company plans to dispose of its non-core personal care business, BFPC, and has fully provided for asset impairment of 195 million yuan, which is expected to enhance focus on its core business [8]. - The global nutrition and health food solutions market is projected to grow from 29.4 billion USD in 2024 to 42.4 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to reach 4.533 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 121 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant decline of 62.7% compared to the previous year [10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.39 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 60 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xianle Health, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company has released its 2025 earnings forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 101 million to 151 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 68.85% to 53.44% [2]. - The company has introduced a 2026 restricted stock incentive plan, granting 2.2025 million shares at a price of 12.21 yuan per share, covering 85 management and core technical personnel [2]. - The company aims to achieve revenue targets of no less than 50.90 billion yuan, 53.83 billion yuan, and 58.32 billion yuan for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively [2]. - The company has also revised its 2023/2025 equity incentive plans, adjusting revenue targets downwards for 2026 [2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4.211 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.536 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.8% [10]. - The net profit is expected to recover significantly from 121 million yuan in 2025 to 458 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 19.5% [10]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 53.22%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [5]. Market Position - The global nutrition and health solutions market is expected to grow from 29.4 billion USD in 2024 to 42.4 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.6% [11]. - Xianle Health ranks third globally in the nutrition and health food solutions market, holding a 2.0% market share, with notable strengths in gummy and soft capsule segments [9][11]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its strong R&D capabilities and a robust supply chain [9]. Incentive Plans - The 2026 restricted stock incentive plan aims to align management and technical personnel's performance with company growth, focusing on both revenue and profit targets [2]. - The employee stock ownership plan covers up to 12 core management members, with profit targets set at no less than 3.8 billion yuan for 2026 and 4.5 billion yuan for 2027 [2][21].

Group 1 - The overall change in public fund holdings shows an increase in allocation to non-ferrous metals and communications, while reducing allocation to electronics and pharmaceuticals. The top five industries with increased holdings are non-ferrous metals (up 2.1 percentage points), communications (1.8 percentage points), non-bank financials (0.9 percentage points), chemicals (0.8 percentage points), and machinery (0.7 percentage points). The top five industries with reduced holdings are electronics (-1.6 percentage points), pharmaceuticals (-1.6 percentage points), media (-1.2 percentage points), electric new energy (-0.9 percentage points), and computers (-0.8 percentage points) [1][8][12] Group 2 - The report categorizes funds into four types: increasing, decreasing, adjusting, and extreme style. The increasing funds focus on growth style, adding positions in industrial metals, military electronics, and photovoltaic equipment, while reducing positions in batteries, digital media, and social networks. Decreasing funds are shifting from growth to value, adding positions in components, liquor, and coal mining, while reducing positions in communication equipment, semiconductors, and passenger vehicles. Adjusting funds show a balanced configuration, adding positions in semiconductors, industrial metals, and insurance, while reducing positions in consumer electronics, batteries, and state-owned banks. Extreme style funds make internal adjustments within their styles, adding communication equipment and renovation materials while reducing consumer electronics and bioproducts [7][15][16] Group 3 - The report highlights that the consensus for selling includes bioproducts, internet e-commerce, consumer electronics, social media, batteries, and digital media, while the consensus for buying includes insurance, securities, chemical products, components, photovoltaic equipment, and industrial metals [15][16][18] Group 4 - The analysis indicates that increasing funds prefer large-cap and high-valuation stocks, while decreasing and adjusting funds focus on both growth and profitability. Extreme growth funds tend to hold small-cap, high-valuation stocks with pressured profitability, while extreme value funds focus on low-valuation, large-cap stocks with low earnings growth [7][18][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company, Starry Technology, with a target price of 99.3 CNY based on a projected 80x PE for 2026 [3][9]. Core Insights - Starry Technology is positioned as a global leader in visual AI SoC, with significant market share in various segments, including security, robotics, and automotive applications. The company has established a comprehensive product portfolio and is expanding into new AIoT scenarios [6][7][18]. - The demand for edge AI SoC is experiencing explosive growth, driven by advancements in large language models and multimodal models, leading to increased penetration in various applications [40][43]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its self-developed ISP and NPU technologies, which enhance imaging quality and energy efficiency, as well as its integrated SoC platform that combines perception, computation, and connectivity [6][7][24]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Leader in Visual AI SoC - Starry Technology, founded in 2017, has rapidly gained a leading position in the visual AI SoC market, achieving significant milestones in product development and market penetration [13][15]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a focus on security electronics to a broader AIoT landscape, with applications in smart security, smart homes, and smart vehicles [18][22]. Section 2: Edge AI SoC Penetration and 3D Sensing Technology - The global market for visual AI SoC is expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0% from 2024 to 2029, driven by increasing demand for edge AI applications [43]. - Starry Technology is actively developing 3D sensing technologies, integrating them with existing AI SoC solutions to meet market demands for high-precision applications [24]. Section 3: Multi-Scene Growth in AI SoC - The company is expanding its presence in multiple sectors, including security, IoT, and automotive, with a notable increase in revenue from these segments [33]. - Starry Technology's revenue from smart IoT and automotive sectors is growing rapidly, indicating a diversification of its business model beyond traditional security applications [33]. Section 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 256 million CNY in 2024, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 681 million CNY by 2027 [2][9]. - The financial outlook reflects a robust growth trajectory, supported by high R&D investment and a focus on innovation [31][38].

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 太平洋航运（02343.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 经营稳健、穿越周期的小宗散运龙头船东， 有望受益于行业持续复苏 ❖ 风险提示：宏观经济下行、运力供给过剩、油价大幅波动等。 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万美元) | 2,582 | 2,336 | 2,369 | 2,423 | | 同比增速(%) | 12.4% | -9.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | | 归母净利润(百万美元) | 132 | 98 | 156 | 217 | | 同比增速(%) | 20.4% | -25.2% | 58.8% | 39.0% | | 每股盈利(美元) | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | | 市盈率(倍) | 16 | 21 | 13 | 9 | | 市净率(倍) | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 29, 2026, most industries in the convertible bond market corrected, and the valuation increased month - on - month. The convertible bond market's trading sentiment weakened, and the market style favored large - cap value stocks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.70% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.30%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.57%, the SSE 50 Index increased by 1.65%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.80% [2]. - In terms of market style, large - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks increased by 0.76%, large - cap value stocks increased by 2.21%, mid - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.02%, mid - cap value stocks increased by 0.50%, small - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.43%, and small - cap value stocks remained unchanged [2]. II. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 81.418 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 325.9418 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.93%. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 6.0222 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond increased by 0.10bp to 1.82% [2]. - The share of Boshi Convertible Bond ETF was 4.311 billion shares, with a net increase of 62.2 million shares; the share of Haifutong Convertible Bond ETF was 891 million shares, with a net decrease of 34.5 million shares [37][40]. III. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds decreased to 142.82 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 208.09 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 123.66 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 134.77 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% [3]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan decreased by 0.59 pct to 77.87%. The proportion of the 120 - 130 yuan (inclusive) range increased by 0.58 pct to 16.80%. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 140.54 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% [3]. - The conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par - value fitting increased to 38.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 pct. The overall weighted par value decreased to 105.83 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [3]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds decreased by 0.95 pct to 19.09%; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds increased by 1.19 pct to 91.95%; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds decreased by 0.77 pct to 29.94% [3]. IV. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were food and beverage (+6.57%), media (+3.53%), and real estate (+2.65%); the top three falling industries were electronics (-3.56%), national defense and military industry (-1.79%), and power equipment (-1.78%) [4]. - In the convertible bond market, 21 industries fell. The top three falling industries were steel (-3.94%), electronics (-2.15%), and machinery and equipment (-2.05%); the top three rising industries were non - ferrous metals (+2.06%), communication (+1.27%), and media (+1.15%) [4]. - In terms of closing price, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.66%, manufacturing industries decreased by 1.38%, technology industries decreased by 0.23%, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.17%, and large - finance industries increased by 0.25% [4]. - In terms of conversion premium rate, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.7 pct, manufacturing industries increased by 0.71 pct, technology industries increased by 0.25 pct, large - consumption industries increased by 0.79 pct, and large - finance industries increased by 0.16 pct [4]. - In terms of conversion value, large - cycle industries increased by 0.05%, manufacturing industries decreased by 2.02%, technology industries decreased by 0.53%, large - consumption industries increased by 0.06%, and large - finance industries increased by 1.35% [4]. - In terms of pure bond premium rate, large - cycle industries decreased by 1.0 pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 2.3 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.47 pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.23 pct, and large - finance industries increased by 0.28 pct [5]. V. Industry Rotation - Food and beverage, media, and real estate led the rise. The daily increase rates of food and beverage, media, and real estate were 6.57%, 3.53%, and 2.65% respectively in the A - share market [55]. - The report also provided the weekly, monthly, and year - to - date increase rates of various industries, as well as their valuation quantiles such as PE (TTM), 3 - year and 10 - year quantiles of PE and PB (LF) [55].

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 太平洋航运（02343.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 经营稳健、穿越周期的小宗散运龙头船东， 有望受益于行业持续复苏 ❖ 风险提示：宏观经济下行、运力供给过剩、油价大幅波动等。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] 航运 2026 年 01 月 29 日 目标价：3.70 港元 当前价：3.12 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万美元) | 2,582 | 2,336 | 2,369 | 2,423 | | 同比增速(%) | 12.4% | -9.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | | ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 暂停降息，加息并非基准项——美联储 1 月 议息会议点评 债券日报 2026 年 01 月 29 日 华创证券研究所 联系人：李阳 邮箱：liyang3@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】非银流动性工具的海外经验和国 内猜想：从 ONRRP 展开》 2026-01-27 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20260126》 2026-01-26 《【华创固收】2025 年度土地成交及城投拿地盘 点》 2026-01-23 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 证券分析师：周冠南 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 ❖ 北京时间 1 月 29 日凌晨，美联储自 2025 年 9 月连续三次降息后如期暂停降 息，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%-3.75%，储备余额利率、贴现利率 在 3.65%、3.75%。自 2024 年 9 月开启降息周期以来，美联储已合计调降 175BP。 ❖ 一是利率声明方面，对经济前景的判断较 12 月有所改善，尤其是就业层面； ...