行业研究 证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20250421-20250427） 国家生态环境部受理国能准东20亿方煤制气 推荐（维持） 项目环评 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 28 日 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 41,489.30 | 4.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 36,738.07 | 4.77 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.7% | -2.4% | 3.9% | | 相对表现 | -2.0% | 1.9% | -3.4% | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：陈俊新 《基础化工行业周报（20250414-20250420）：本 周丙烷、敌草快、石脑油价格涨幅居前》 2025-04-21 证 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 联华电子（UMC.N）2025Q1 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 25Q1 业绩符合预期，消费电子需求显著复苏 会议地点：线上 5. 产能及扩产情况：2025Q1 受地震和年度维护计划影响，公司产能有所下降。 公司预计第二季度产能将恢复正常，新加坡工厂因扩产启动，产能会有温和增 长。2025 年资本支出维持在 18 亿美元不变。 6. 与英特尔的合作：公司与英特尔的联合开发按预期顺利推进，目前正在验 证试点生产线的产品性能，预计 2026 年按计划为首批客户准备好早期 PDK。 公司一直在与关键客户就器件规格进行协调，以加快量产进程，目前正在将工 艺技术移植到亚利桑那州工厂，进展顺利。销售贡献预计仍从 2027 年开始。 ❖ 风险提示： 贸易政策变化带来的不确定性，下游需求复苏不及预期，技术研发不及预期。 ❖ 事项： 2025 年 4 月 23 日，联华电子发布 2025 年 Q1 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会， 2025Q1 公司实现收入 578.6 亿新台币（QoQ-4.2%，YoY+5.9%）；毛利率 26.7% （QoQ-3.7pct）。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩情况：2025Q1 公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 12.24 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in its financial performance, with a 2024 revenue of 60.514 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.23%, and a net profit of 0.825 billion CNY, up 160.36% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 continues this trend with a revenue of 15.666 billion CNY, a 49.06% increase, and a net profit of 0.247 billion CNY, up 138.20% year-on-year [1][3]. - The modified plastics, green petrochemicals, and new materials businesses have all seen growth in both sales and revenue, contributing to the overall performance improvement [1][3]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue reached 60.514 billion CNY with a year-on-year growth of 26.23%. Net profit was 0.825 billion CNY, marking a 160.36% increase [1][3]. - **2025 Q1 Performance**: Revenue for the first quarter was 15.666 billion CNY, a 49.06% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 0.247 billion CNY, up 138.20% [1][3]. - **Sales Growth**: The modified plastics business sold 2.5515 million tons in 2024, a 20.78% increase, generating revenue of 32.075 billion CNY, up 18.95%. In Q1 2025, sales were 604,400 tons, a 25.26% increase, with revenue of 7.620 billion CNY, up 30.67% [1][7]. - **New Materials Business**: In 2024, sales reached 236,000 tons, a 32.51% increase, with revenue of 3.654 billion CNY, up 15.73%. Q1 2025 saw sales of 56,000 tons, a 26.13% increase, and revenue of 0.867 billion CNY, up 32.41% [1][7]. - **Green Petrochemicals**: Revenue for 2024 was 11.436 billion CNY, a 22.30% increase, with a gross margin improvement to -6.36%. In Q1 2025, sales were 447,500 tons, a 118.51% increase, with revenue of 3.289 billion CNY, up 126.79% [1][7]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in modified plastics and new materials, supported by its global expansion and new market opportunities. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.414 billion CNY, 1.902 billion CNY, and 2.379 billion CNY, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 71.5%, 34.5%, and 25.1% respectively [1][7].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 古井贡酒（000596）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） Q1 实现开门红，稳健增长可期 事项： ❖ 公司发布 24 年报及 25 年一季报，24 年营收 235.8 亿元，同增 16.4%;归母净 利润 55.2 亿元，同增 20.2%，分红率达 57.5%，同比提升 5.7pcts;测算单 Q4 实 现营收 45.1 亿元，同增 4.9%;归母净利润 7.7 亿元，同减 0.7%。25Q1 营收/归 母净利润分别为 91.5/23.3 亿元，同比+10.4%/+12.8%。Q1 末合同负债 36.7 亿 元，环比 24Q4 末上升 1.59 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,578 | 26,086 | 28,813 | 31,758 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | | 归母净利润( ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 恒铭达（002947）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 大客户模切&华阳通双轮驱动，25Q1 业绩符 合预期 事项： 2025 年 4 月 27 日公司发布 2025Q1 业绩报告：25Q1 年实现营收 6.49 亿元 （YOY + 52.59%），归母净利润 1.08 亿元（YOY+ 53.69%），扣非净利润 1.03 亿元（YOY+ 49.23%），毛利率 30.12%（YOY +1.67pct）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,486 | 4,130 | 5,605 | 7,152 | | 同比增速(%) | 36.7% | 66.1% | 35.7% | 27.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 457 | 700 | 938 | 1,223 | | 同比增速(%) | 62.4% | 53.2% | 34.1% | 30.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.78 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 宝立食品（603170）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 营收增长稳健，静待盈利弹性 目标价：18.2 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 26.51 亿元，同 比增长 11.91%；归母净利润 2.33 亿元，同比-22.52%；2025 年 Q1 实现营业收 入 6.69 亿元，同比增长 7.18%；归母净利润 0.58 亿元，同比-4.19%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 联系人：严文炀 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,651 | 2,943 | 3,307 | 3,728 | | 同比增速(%) | 11.9% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 12.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 233 | 279 | 327 | 387 | | 同比增速(%) | -22.5% | 19.7% | 17.3% | 18.1 ...

事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 1,093,172 | 1,314,867 | 1,527,268 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 40.7% | 20.3% | 16.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 57,985 | 70,375 | 81,390 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | 44.0% | 21.4% | 15.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 13.25 | 19.08 | 23.16 | 26.78 | | 市盈率(倍) | 28 | 19 | 16 | 14 | | 市净率(倍) | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 25 比亚迪（002594）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，关注智能化及海外进展 目 ...

泸州老窖（000568）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报，24 年实现营收 312.0 亿元，同增 3.2%, 归母净利润 134.7 亿元，同增 1.7%。其中单 Q4 收入 68.9 亿元，同减 16.9%， 归母净利润 18.8 亿元，同减 29.9%。25Q1 实现营收 93.5 亿元，同增 1.8%， 归母净利润 45.9 亿元，同增 0.4%。25Q1 销售回款 98.7 亿元，同减 7.3%，经 营性现金流净额 33.1 亿元，同减 24.1%。Q1 末合同负债 30.7 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 31,196 | 31,932 | 34,059 | 36,594 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.2% | 2.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 13,4 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 汤臣倍健（300146）2025 年一季报点评 中性（维持） 收入承压延续，净利率降幅收窄 目标价：13.5 元 事项： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,838 | 7,172 | 7,569 | 7,917 | | 同比增速(%) | -27.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 653 | 866 | 1,018 | 1,137 | | 同比增速(%) | -62.6% | 32.7% | 17.6% | 11.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.67 | | 市盈率(倍) | 28 | 21 | 18 | 16 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 25 日收盘价 公司研究 其他食品 2025 年 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [4][23]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in 2024, with a revenue of 3.263 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.94%, and a net profit of 460 million yuan, up 272.47% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic smart audio SoC sector, with a diversified revenue structure and a strong focus on R&D in AI and wearable technology [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 3.263 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 49.94%, and a net profit of 460 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 272.47% [7][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 999.5 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 52.25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.88% [7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 reached 38.47%, with net profit margins of 14.11% for 2024 and 19.16% for Q1 2025, indicating improved profitability [7][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.920 billion yuan, 6.315 billion yuan, and 7.557 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 923 million yuan, 1.304 billion yuan, and 1.660 billion yuan [8][9]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.69 yuan, 10.86 yuan, and 13.83 yuan respectively [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its R&D capabilities, particularly in Wi-Fi, NPU, and ISP technologies, to maintain its competitive edge in the smart wearable and smart home markets [7]. - The report highlights the growing trend of edge AI, with the company launching new products like the MYVU AR smart glasses and Ola Friend AI earphones, which are expected to drive future growth [7][8].