证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 关注"价"的积极信号 ——1 月制造业 PMI 点评 1、制造业 PMI：短期因素叠加，景气重返收缩区间 （1）新订单：1 月新订单降至 49.2%，再度回到收缩区间，反映上月需求透 支效应。在 12 月冲刺之后，1 月需求释放透支。下游春节提前放假、降温天 气也导致需求放缓。另外，新出口订单环比降幅低于新订单总体，显示内需订 单放缓的力度相对更大。 （2）生产：生产节奏放缓，但仍在扩张区间。受需求端承压影响，生产相应 波动，增势有所放缓。其中，消费品制造业生产指数下滑 4pct 至荣枯线以下 是主要拖累，而代表新动能的行业生产仍在高景气，分化有所加大。 （3）外贸：进口偏强、出口订单转弱。新出口订单环比-1.2pct 至 47.8%，收 缩再度加剧。1 月美国针对部分高技术制造品类加征关税，美欧贸易关税摩擦 也有波动，叠加临近春节，新出口订单增势环比放缓。进口环比+0.3pct 至 47.3%，生产景气对进口需求或有一定支撑。 （4）价格：原材料购进价格、出厂价格环比+3.0pct、+1.7pct 至 56.1%、50.6%， 其中后者自 2024 年 5 月以来首次回 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights that UMC's revenue for CY25Q4 reached NT$61.81 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.36% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.50%. The gross margin was 30.7%, with a slight increase from the previous year [1][2]. - For the full year of 2025, UMC achieved a revenue of NT$237.55 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% and a shipment volume increase of 12.3% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue for Q4 was primarily driven by demand from Asia and Europe, while North America's share decreased from 25% to 21% [2][10]. - The 22/28nm process technology remains a core growth driver, accounting for 36% of Q4 revenue, with a significant year-on-year increase [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. UMC's Q4 2025 Performance - UMC's Q4 revenue was NT$61.81 billion, with a gross margin of 30.7%, and a slight increase in operating profit margin to 19.8% [2][7]. - The company maintained a capacity utilization rate of 78% with wafer shipments of approximately 994,000 pieces [7][8]. 2. Revenue Structure - The 22/28nm process accounted for 36% of total revenue in Q4, with a significant increase in 22nm revenue by 31% quarter-on-quarter [10][11]. - By region, Asia represented 64% of revenue, while North America decreased to 21% [14][20]. 3. Company Guidance for Q1 2026 - UMC expects a 1% decline in capacity for Q1 2026 due to annual maintenance, with wafer shipments remaining stable [22][23]. - The company projects a gross margin in the high-20% range and a capital expenditure budget of approximately $1.5 billion for 2026 [23][24]. 4. Downstream Demand and Technology Outlook - UMC anticipates continued growth in 2026, driven by the acceleration of 22nm platform tape-outs and new process technology penetration [26]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with the completion of the Singapore Fab 12i Phase III factory, aimed at diversifying the supply chain for customers [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in urban traffic management business, with projected revenue for 2025 expected to be between 1.2 billion to 1.35 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16.14%-25.46% [5][6]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated to be between 40 million to 60 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 53.5%-69% year-on-year [5]. - The company continues to strengthen its leading position in the civil aviation management sector while advancing its integrated development in the low-altitude market, leveraging benchmark projects to build a comprehensive ecosystem [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 1.307 billion yuan, down 18.8% from 2024, with a net profit of 49 million yuan, a decrease of 62% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.30 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 229 times [6]. - The company anticipates a recovery in 2026, with revenue expected to rise to 1.485 billion yuan and net profit to 128 million yuan, indicating a growth of 161% year-on-year [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the low-altitude digital economy, with a focus on developing comprehensive solutions and establishing benchmark projects across multiple cities [5]. - The report highlights three key advantages that support the company's potential to excel in the low-altitude digitalization sector: its established expertise in civil aviation management, the systematic product offerings for low-altitude operations, and the support from its parent group [5]. - The company is actively involved in projects that enhance low-altitude flight management capabilities, including collaborations with universities and local governments to create integrated management platforms [5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 债市延续修复，中长普信债表现偏强 ——信用周报 20260131 本周信用债收益率、信用利差走势分化。本周权益高位震荡，年初配置行情 延续叠加央行创新货币政策工具催化，收益率延续修复。全周来看，信用债表 现强于利率债。3y 及以上中长端普信债、2-4y 券商次级债收益率有所下行， 利差有所收窄，其中 3-4y 普信债、5y 城投、4y 券商次级债表现相对占优；其 余品种收益率多数上行，除 1y 品种外利差以走阔为主。近期仍处于摊余债基 开放高峰，3-5y 品种普信债利差进一步压缩。 热点重点政策及热点事件 1、央行副行长表示将增加离岸人民币国债供给规模。这一举措有利于满足境 外投资者对优质人民币资产配置的需要，活跃市场交易、提升人民币定价能力。 2、吉林省成功退出地方债务重点省份。吉林省债务体量相对较小，率先退出 重点省份基本符合市场预期，可重点关注退重点省份后区域发展机会及发债主 体新增融资空间。 3、万科公布与深铁 23.6 亿借款方案。借款方案背靠深铁将为债券部分兑付提 供资金保障，万科债务风险的缓释有助于阶段性稳定市场预期。 4、多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Petty Co., with a target price of 25 yuan per share [2][8]. Core Insights - The New Zealand factory is progressing smoothly, and breakthroughs in the company's own brand are expected. The factory has begun delivering orders to customers, and preparations for entering the domestic market are actively underway [2]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1,659 million yuan in 2024 to 2,141 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from 182 million yuan in 2024 to 270 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 30.1% [4]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve from 29.4% in 2024 to 32.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to be 1,670 million yuan in 2025 and 1,910 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7% and 14.4%, respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.62 yuan in 2025 and 0.83 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29 and 21, respectively [4]. - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 2,995 million yuan in 2024 to 3,501 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady increase in financial strength [9].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20260130 ❖ 市场概况：今日多数行业回调，估值环比压缩 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 140.94 元，环比昨日下降 1.31%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 206.54 元，环比 下降 0.72%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 122.74 元，环比下降 0.75%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 132.62 元，环比下降 1.60%。从转债收盘价分布情况看，130 元以 上高价券个数占比 74.73%，较昨日环比下降 3.13pct；占比变化最大的区间为 120-130（包含 130），占比 19.95%，较昨日上升 3.15pct；收盘价在 100 元以下 的个券有 0 只。价格中位数为 138.96 元，环比昨日下降 1.12%。 转债估值：估值压缩。百元平价拟合转股溢价率为 37.11%，环比昨日下降 1.89pct；整体加权平价为 104.86 元，环比昨日下降 0.91%。偏股型转债溢价率 为 19.62%，环比上升 0.53pct；偏债型转债溢价率为 94.06%，环比上升 2.11pct； 平衡型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 850 million to 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1% to 60.7%, with a median estimate of 950 million yuan, reflecting a 45% increase [7]. - The company is well-positioned in the low-altitude economy sector, driven by its dual strategy of general aviation and eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft [7]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the new Civil Aviation Law, which encourages the development of general aviation and low-altitude economy, providing a strong legal framework for industry growth [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 16,264 million yuan in 2024 to 19,879 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 653 million yuan in 2024 to 1,429 million yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 50.6% in 2025 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.31 yuan in 2024 to 0.67 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [2]. Business Performance - The automotive metal parts lightweight business is optimizing its product and customer structure, leading to improved operational efficiency and profitability [7]. - The general aviation aircraft manufacturing segment is experiencing strong order flow and stable operations, with ongoing improvements in high-value model production processes [7]. - The acquisition of Volocopter GmbH is seen as a strategic move to enhance the eVTOL product matrix and accelerate commercialization efforts in the global low-altitude economy market [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 SK 海力士（000660.KS）FY2025Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 HBM 构筑核心增长动能，25 年营收利润均破 纪录 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 29 日 SK 海力士发布 2025 年 Q4 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。 公司财务季度 FY2025Q4 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CQ2025Q4。 2025Q4，公司实现营收 32.8 万亿韩元，同比增长 66%，环比增长 34%；毛利 率为 69%，同比提升 17pct，环比提升 12pct。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：25Q4 营收 32.8 万亿韩元（QoQ +34%，YoY +66%），创下季度 营收新高。毛利率为 69%（QoQ +12pct，YoY +17pct），主要得益于市场对 HBM 和传统服务器内存的需求大幅增长，致使 DRAM 和 NAND 价格的大幅上涨以 及 NAND 位出货量的增长。25Q4 实现净利润 15.2 万亿韩元（QoQ +21%，YoY +90%），净利率为 46%（QoQ -6pct，YoY +5pct）。 2. 终端市场：1）整体需求，DRAM ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 850 million to 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1% to 60.7%, with a median estimate of 950 million yuan, reflecting a 45% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of general aviation and eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) to drive growth, supported by favorable government policies and market conditions [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the automotive lightweight metal parts business and the robust order book in the general aviation aircraft manufacturing sector [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 16,264 million yuan in 2024 to 19,879 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is expected to increase from 653 million yuan in 2024 to 1,429 million yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 50.6% in 2025 [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.31 yuan in 2024 to 0.67 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 50 times in 2024 to 23 times in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [2]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is strategically positioned as a leader in the low-altitude economy, with a focus on expanding its product matrix through acquisitions, such as the purchase of Volocopter, which enhances its eVTOL offerings [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government support for the low-altitude economy, particularly with the new Civil Aviation Law set to take effect in July 2026, which encourages innovation and development in the general aviation sector [7]. - The company is actively developing new aircraft models and enhancing its production capabilities to meet the growing demand in both the general aviation and eVTOL markets [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 SK 海力士（000660.KS）FY2025Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 HBM 构筑核心增长动能，25 年营收利润均破 纪录 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 29 日 SK 海力士发布 2025 年 Q4 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。 公司财务季度 FY2025Q4 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CQ2025Q4。 2025Q4，公司实现营收 32.8 万亿韩元，同比增长 66%，环比增长 34%；毛利 率为 69%，同比提升 17pct，环比提升 12pct。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：25Q4 营收 32.8 万亿韩元（QoQ +34%，YoY +66%），创下季度 营收新高。毛利率为 69%（QoQ +12pct，YoY +17pct），主要得益于市场对 HBM 和传统服务器内存的需求大幅增长，致使 DRAM 和 NAND 价格的大幅上涨以 及 NAND 位出货量的增长。25Q4 实现净利润 15.2 万亿韩元（QoQ +21%，YoY +90%），净利率为 46%（QoQ -6pct，YoY +5pct）。 2. 终端市场：1）整体需求，DRAM ...