行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 2026 年 02 月 01 日 汽车行业周报（20260126-20260201） 有色波动影响中上游短期议价，继续看好新产 推荐（维持） 业方向 1 月下旬行业折扣环比下降（油车为主）。折扣率 9.5%，同比+0.6PP（1/25），环比-0.1PP （1/10）。折扣金额 21,541 元，同比+1,294 元（1/25），环比-718 元（1/10）。折扣率变 动环比较大的主流品牌：WEY+1.6PP、北京奔驰-1.5PP、上汽通用别克-1.3PP、长安启源 +1.2PP、长安马自达-0.8PP。 12 月乘用车批发、零售销量同比下滑。12 月乘用车批发 285 万辆，同比-8.7%，环比- 6.3%，狭义乘用车批发 283 万辆，同比-8.4%，环比-6.1%；国产乘用车零售 228 万辆， 同比-16.8%，环比+13.7%；乘用车出口销量 64 万辆，同比+50.5%，环比+2.8%；估算库 存变动-7.4 万辆，同比-4 万辆，环比-48 万辆。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日， 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）121 ...

- The short-term trading volume model indicates a bullish outlook for some broad-based indices [1][10] - The characteristic institutional model from the Dragon and Tiger list is neutral [1][10] - The characteristic trading volume model is neutral [1][10] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 300 index is bullish, while the intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 500 index is bearish [1][10] - The mid-term limit-up and limit-down model is neutral [1][11] - The up-and-down return difference model is bullish for all broad-based indices [1][11] - The calendar effect model is neutral [1][11] - The long-term momentum model is neutral [1][12] - The comprehensive A-share V3 model is bullish [1][13] - The comprehensive A-share Guozheng 2000 model is neutral [1][13] - The mid-term trading volume to volatility model for Hong Kong stocks is bullish [1][14] - The up-and-down return difference model for the Hang Seng Index is neutral, while the similar up-and-down return difference model is bullish [1][14]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 相较目前的美联储体系，沃什有三个最重要的改变：决策机制的转变、新的通 胀理论、反对过度 QE 和支持缩表。最后是否成功以及对美元资产的中期影 响，或并不取决于"沃什"本人是谁，而是美国生产率繁荣叙事的落地。 沃什是谁，主要的政策主张？ 从身份和背景履历来看，沃什是前美联储理事、三栖精英、特朗普"自己人"。 1）犹太人，法学博士（非科班）。2）横跨政、商、学三界，曾在小布什政府 任职，35 岁就任美联储历史上最年轻的理事，金融危机实战专家（参与 2008 年金融危机救助和决策）；有华尔街背景，曾任摩根士丹利并购与资本市场高 管，也在多年内任职斯坦福大学研究员和讲师。3）特朗普曾多次公开赞扬沃 什，岳父是特朗普长期好友及共和党重要捐助者。 从政策倾向来看，沃什更多是灵活务实者、过度 QE 批评者（支持缩表），联 储改革派。1）在通胀问题上较为灵活，曾以"通胀鹰派"著称，但近年以来 支持更快降息而不担心通胀反弹。2）一以贯之的过度 QE 批评者，支持缩表。 3）联储改革派，美联储应该更小、更专业、框架更有战略经济视角。用专业 性维护美联储独立性，批评美联储"任务（职能）膨胀"。详见 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国国航（601111）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 25 年递延所得税资产转回影响，归母净利亏损， 经营端持续改善，看好行业供需格局下龙头弹性 公司公布 2025 年业绩预告： 2025 年预计实现归母净利-13 至-19 亿，2024 年为-2.37 亿；扣非归母净利-19 至-27 亿，2024 年为-25.40 亿。 2025Q4 归母净利为-31.70 至-37.70 亿，2024Q4 为-15.99 亿；2025Q4 扣非归母 净利为-35.44 至-43.44 亿，2024Q4 为-29.72 亿。 公司归母净利润口径亏损，系公司于资产负债表日对递延所得税资产的账面 价值进行复核，相应转回部分递延所得税资产。参考中国东航预告，东航利润 总额实现盈利，但因递延所得税资产转回，增加所得税费用，归母净利润口径 同为负，但经营口径大幅改善。 风险提示：经济大幅下滑、油价大幅上涨、汇率大幅贬值。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国东航（600115）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 2025 年利润总额预计 2-3 亿，经营成果显著 改善，持续看好供给强约束下航空板块机会 公司公告 2025 年业绩预告： 2025 年预计实现归母净利-13 至-18 亿，2024 年为- 42.26 亿；扣非归母净 利-27 至 -33 亿，2024 年为-49.83 亿。 计算 2025Q4 归母净利为-34.03 至-39.03 亿，2024Q4 为-40.88 亿；2025Q4 扣非归母净利为- 41.0 至-47.05 亿，2024Q4 为-44.46 亿。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 132,120 | 138,744 | 151,120 | 160,527 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.2% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 6.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -4,226 | -1,489 | ...

公司研究 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 证 券 研 究 报 告 莱斯信息（688631）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 城市交管业务下降致业绩承压，持续以标杆项目为 牵引打造低空体系生态 行业应用软件 2026 年 01 月 31 日 当前价：68.67 元 华创证券研究所 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 16,347.00 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 6,487.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 112.25 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 44.55 | | 资产负债率(%) | 44.20 | | 每股净资产(元) | 11.08 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 122.03/61.13 | 市场表现对比图( ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights that UMC's revenue for CY25Q4 reached NT$61.81 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.36% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.50%. The gross margin was 30.7%, with a slight increase from the previous year [1][2]. - For the full year of 2025, UMC achieved a revenue of NT$237.55 billion, marking a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with a shipment volume growth of 12.3% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue for Q4 was primarily driven by demand from Asia and Europe, while North America's share decreased from 25% to 21% [2][10]. - The 22/28nm process technology remains a core growth driver, accounting for 36% of Q4 revenue, with a significant increase in 22nm revenue by 31% quarter-on-quarter [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. UMC's Q4 2025 Performance - UMC's Q4 revenue was NT$61.81 billion, with a gross margin of 30.7%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase in operating profit margin to 19.8% [2][7]. - The annual revenue for 2025 was NT$237.55 billion, with a gross margin of 29.0%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.6 percentage points [2][9]. 2. Revenue Structure - In Q4, the revenue structure showed that 22/28nm processes contributed significantly, with 22nm becoming a key growth driver [10][11]. - By region, Asia accounted for 64% of revenue, while North America decreased to 21% [14][20]. 3. Company Guidance for Q1 2026 - UMC expects a 1% decline in capacity for Q1 2026 due to annual maintenance, with wafer shipments remaining stable [3][22]. - The company anticipates a gross margin in the high-20% range and a capital expenditure budget of approximately $1.5 billion for 2026 [3][24]. 4. Downstream Demand and Technology Outlook - UMC projects continued growth in 2026, driven by the acceleration of 22nm platform tape-outs and new process technology penetration [3][26]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with the completion of the Singapore Fab 12i Phase III factory, aimed at diversifying the supply chain for customers [3][26].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the surgical robot industry, but it indicates a positive outlook for growth and development in the sector. Core Insights - The surgical robot industry in China is entering a rapid development phase, supported by national policies and capital investment, with significant advancements in technology and market demand [13]. - The report highlights the transition from a capital-driven to a value-driven model in the surgical robot sector, emphasizing the importance of clinical applications and technological integration [13]. - The approval process for surgical robots by the NMPA has accelerated, particularly for orthopedic surgical robots, which dominate the market in terms of the number of products approved [30][28]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The surgical robot market in China is characterized by a growth in sales volume, with a total of 332 units sold in the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.75% [34]. - The sales revenue for surgical robots reached 2.973 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.87% year-on-year, indicating a structural transition rather than a market downturn [34]. Technological Advancements - Innovations in remote operation, miniaturization, and AI assistance are driving the development of surgical robots, with products like the TUMAI® remote surgical robot achieving significant milestones in cross-border surgeries [16][19]. - The introduction of AI-assisted surgical robots is enhancing precision in surgeries, with products capable of 3D reconstruction and personalized surgical planning [16]. Regulatory Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration has established a pricing framework for surgical robots, which is expected to facilitate market growth by clarifying reimbursement policies and pricing structures [27][26]. - The pricing guidelines categorize surgical robot services into navigation, participation in execution, and precision execution, linking them to main surgical procedures [27]. Market Segmentation - The orthopedic surgical robot segment holds the largest market share, accounting for 50% of the total NMPA-approved surgical robots from 2014 to 2024, followed by neurosurgical robots [30]. - The report indicates a significant potential for growth in emerging fields such as vascular surgery robots, with increasing demand and technological advancements [34]. Competitive Landscape - The report identifies key players in the surgical robot market, including domestic manufacturers that are rapidly gaining market share as regulatory barriers for imports increase [45]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as domestic products receive NMPA approval, challenging the previously dominant imported products [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company has released a profit forecast for 2025, predicting a median net profit attributable to shareholders of 201 million yuan for Q4, a significant turnaround from losses, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 107% [2]. - The company anticipates a doubling of its performance in 2026, with a target price range of 19.4 to 21.2 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 31% to 43% from the current price [2][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 22,255 million yuan in 2024 to 30,578 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.2% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to shift from a loss of 567 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 1,261 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.45 yuan in 2024 to 0.99 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [4]. Business Performance Insights - The company expects its passenger car seat business to generate over 5 billion yuan in revenue in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of over 60% [8]. - The integration of production capabilities with partners in Europe is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [8]. - The company has secured 25 projects in hand for passenger car seats, with a total sales potential exceeding 100 billion yuan, indicating strong future growth prospects [8]. Valuation and Market Position - The report estimates the company's market value in 2026 to be between 247 billion and 269 billion yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35-40 times for the passenger car seat business and 20 times for traditional businesses [8]. - The company is positioned to capture a larger market share among key clients such as Li Auto, NIO, and Geely, which is expected to further enhance its revenue and profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the surgical robot industry, but it highlights a positive outlook for growth and innovation in the sector. Core Insights - The surgical robot industry in China is entering a rapid development phase, supported by national policies and capital investment, with significant advancements in technology and market demand [13]. - The report emphasizes the transition from a capital-driven to a value-driven model in the surgical robot sector, indicating a shift towards more sustainable growth and clinical applications [13]. - The approval process for surgical robots by the NMPA has accelerated, particularly for domestic products, with orthopedic surgical robots leading in the number of approvals [30]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The surgical robot market in China is characterized by a growth in sales volume, with a total of 332 units sold in the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.75% [34]. - The sales revenue for surgical robots reached 2.973 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.87% year-on-year, indicating a structural transition rather than a market downturn [34]. Technological Advancements - Innovations in remote operation, miniaturization, and AI assistance are driving the development of surgical robots, with notable products like the first remote surgical robot approved in China [16][19]. - The report highlights the introduction of AI-assisted surgical robots that enhance precision and efficiency in surgeries, marking a significant technological leap in the industry [16]. Regulatory Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration has established a pricing framework for surgical robots, which is expected to facilitate market growth by clarifying reimbursement policies and pricing structures [27][26]. - The report notes that the establishment of a clear payment system is crucial for the adoption of surgical robots in hospitals, as high costs and long return periods can deter procurement [27]. Market Segmentation - The orthopedic surgical robot segment dominates the market, accounting for 50% of the NMPA approvals from 2014 to 2024, with a strong growth trajectory expected in this area [30]. - The report identifies the laparoscopic surgical robot and orthopedic surgical robot as the two largest segments in the market, with significant potential for expansion in emerging fields [41]. Future Outlook - The report projects substantial growth in the surgical robot market, with expectations for increased penetration rates and market size driven by technological advancements and policy support [44]. - The anticipated CAGR for the laparoscopic surgical robot market from 2024 to 2033 is estimated at 30.4%, indicating robust future demand [44].