量化信用策略 品种久期跟踪 城投债、产业债、租赁公司债、保险公司债久期处于较高历史分位。截至 4 月 18 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别 加权于 1.95 年、2.15 年，城投债与产业债虽较上期有所回落，但均处于 2021 年 3 月以来较高位水平，商业银行债 中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 3.69 年、2.97 年、1.93 年；从其余金融债来 看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别为 1.26 年、1.79 年、3.72 年、1.36 年，其中证券 公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，保险公司债、租赁公司债位于较高历史分位。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 4 月 21 日，存量信用债中，民企地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比，非金融非地 产类产业债收益率多有调整，1-2 年民企公募非永续品种收益率上行幅度超过 15BP，其余品种中 2-5 年国企私募永续 债调整幅度也大于 5BP；地产债中，短期限品种利率仍有下行，1 年以上品种收益率上行幅度基本在 5BP 内。金融债 中，各品种收益率以上行为主，一般商金债和二永债中收益率上 ...

盈利预测、估值与评级 考虑到客观消费环境因素，我们下调盈利预测，我们预计 25-27 年 归母净利润至 5.37/5.74/6.10 亿元，分别同比增长 7%、7%、6%， EPS 分别为 1.20、1.28、1.36 元，现价对应 PE 为 33、31、29 倍， 维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年公司实现 收入 28.74 亿元（同比+0.96%），实现归母净利润 5.01 亿元（同 比+0.20%），扣非归母净利润 4.96 亿元（同比+3.18%）。 同时公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，25Q1 公司实现营业收入 7.45 亿元（同比+5.11%），实现归母净利润 1.84 亿元（同比+6.22%）， 扣非归母净利润 1.82 亿元（同比+7.08%）。 经营分析 种植业务以量补价，增长稳健。拆分业务来看，2024 年公司种植 业务实现收入 5.30 亿元（同比+10.60%），业务收入占比提升至 19.39%，这主要得益于集采后种植牙价格下降带来的需求释放，公 司通过以量补价，集采效应释放，实现了业务的增长。正畸业务 ...

行业观点 公募基金配置化工行业水平回落的同时龙头企业的持仓集中度也有下滑。2025 年 1 季度公募基金配置化工行业 比例降低至 4.1%，同比下滑 1.6pct，环比下滑 0.7pct，整体处于历史中低位的水平。从公募基金配置化工板块的风 格来看，前十大重仓股总市值占公募基金重仓化工行业的比例明显下滑，由 2024 年 4 季度的 46.2%降低至 2025 年 1 季度的 41.9%，其中聚氨酯龙头万华化学、轮胎龙头赛轮轮胎、煤化工龙头宝丰能源和电解液龙头新宙邦的持仓市值 在化工板块的占比明显下滑，今年 1 季度相比去年 4 季度的降低幅度分别为 2.2pct、1.1pct、1.6pct、2.7pct。 今年 1 季度关注度主要集中在民爆和氟化工板块。从个股重仓市值来看：4 季度获得加仓前五大标的是广东宏大、 振华股份、圣泉集团、三棵树、巨化股份；减仓前五大标的是万华化学、新宙邦、宝丰能源、赛轮轮胎、天赐材料。 从基金持有数量看：持仓数量环比增加前五为振华股份、卫星化学、圣泉集团、三棵树、芭田股份。新晋重仓与退出 重仓来看：新晋重仓标的方面，按 2025 年 1 季度重仓市值排序前五分别为大位科技、唯科科 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 40.36 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, driven primarily by the express delivery business [2] - The express delivery segment saw a revenue decline of 19.7% to 2.19 billion RMB, while the freight business grew by 12.95% to 36.46 billion RMB, supported by improved delivery quality and sales capabilities [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.41 billion RMB, a 12% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 0.68 billion RMB, down 173.7% due to increased resource investment and a 34% rise in transportation costs [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s gross margin decreased to 7.62%, down 1.06 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased transportation costs [3] - The operating expense ratio improved to 5.51%, down 1.06 percentage points, with sales expenses rising by 43.04% to 686 million RMB, reflecting ongoing investments in sales capabilities [3] - Management expenses decreased by 20.40% to 1.241 billion RMB, indicating efficiency improvements in organizational functions [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 970 million RMB and 1.07 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.18 billion RMB [4] - The report highlights a projected revenue growth rate of 10.50% for 2025 and a net profit growth rate of 13.05% for the same year [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.42 billion, 32.69 billion, and 39.09 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.34 billion, 3.24 billion, and 4.53 billion RMB [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.57, 0.79, and 1.11 RMB for the same years [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 52.3, 37.8, and 27.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 is estimated at 2,254 million RMB, with a slight decline of 0.75% compared to the previous year [8] - Revenue growth is expected to recover with rates of 6.27%, 14.47%, 19.23%, and 19.56% for the years 2024 to 2027 [8] - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 254 million RMB, with a significant drop of 45.21% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 67.84%, 38.42%, and 39.98% in the subsequent years [8] Financial Metrics - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.620, 0.340, 0.570, 0.789, and 1.105 RMB from 2023 to 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.58% in 2023 to 13.20% in 2027 [8] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 3.36, 2.80, 4.12, 3.87, and 3.56 from 2023 to 2027 [8] Market Performance - The company reported a revenue of 23.95 billion RMB for FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.27%, slightly below the lower end of the forecast [9] - The fourth quarter of FY24 showed a significant revenue increase of 20.70% year-on-year [9] - The overall gross margin for FY24 was 30.46%, down by 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to aggressive pricing strategies in a competitive market [9] Order and Client Dynamics - The company experienced a 16.65% year-on-year increase in orders for FY24, with new client contracts accounting for 32% of total orders [9] - Orders from state-owned enterprises surged by over 300% year-on-year, while self-developed software orders grew by 11.3% [9] Cost Management - Operating expenses (OpEx) were tightly controlled, with research and development, sales, and management expense ratios at 11.0%, 6.7%, and 5.5% respectively for FY24 [9] - The increase in management expense ratio was due to optimization of inefficient positions and strengthening of core talent [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established international operations in Hong Kong and plans to expand into Japan and Europe by 2025 [9] - Progress in AI and PCB business segments is promising, with a 35% year-on-year increase in orders for FY24 [9] - Ongoing collaboration with Huawei is yielding successful market applications of their industrial data model products [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 27.42 billion, 32.69 billion, and 39.09 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.34 billion, 3.24 billion, and 4.53 billion RMB [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.57, 0.79, and 1.11 RMB for the same years [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 52.3, 37.8, and 27.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 is estimated at 2,254 million RMB, with a slight decline of 0.75% compared to the previous year [8] - Revenue growth is expected to recover with rates of 6.27%, 14.47%, 19.23%, and 19.56% for the years 2024 to 2027 [8] - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 254 million RMB, with a significant drop of 45.21% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 67.84%, 38.42%, and 39.98% for the subsequent years [8] Financial Metrics - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.620, 0.340, 0.570, 0.789, and 1.105 RMB from 2023 to 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.58% in 2023 to 13.20% in 2027 [8] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 3.36, 2.80, 4.12, 3.87, and 3.56 from 2023 to 2027 [8] Market Performance - The company reported a revenue of 23.95 billion RMB for FY24, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.27%, although slightly below the lower end of the forecast [9] - The fourth quarter of FY24 showed a significant revenue increase of 20.70% year-over-year [9] - The overall gross margin for FY24 was 30.46%, down by 5.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [9] Strategic Developments - The company has established international operations in Hong Kong and plans to expand into Japan and Europe by 2025 [9] - The collaboration with Huawei continues to progress, with successful commercialization of products based on Huawei's industrial data model [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.47, 0.47, and 0.49 for 2025 to 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 20, and 19 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.3 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 5.38 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.8% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 41.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company's power generation increased by 4.6% in 2024 and 31.2% in Q1 2025, driven by favorable water conditions, increased storage capacity, new unit commissioning, and strong electricity demand [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2024 was approximately 0.255 yuan/kWh, a decrease of about 0.02 yuan/kWh year-on-year, primarily due to improved water conditions and increased renewable energy supply [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.3 billion yuan, with a planned cash dividend of 0.20 yuan per share, representing a 43.4% payout ratio [2]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.79 billion yuan, 8.88 billion yuan, and 9.24 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Power Generation - The company's hydropower generation in 2024 was 107.93 billion kWh, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a hydropower generation of 19.73 billion kWh, up 30.5% year-on-year [3]. - The company added 1.8 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2024, with wind and solar generation reaching 4.2 billion kWh and 36.7 billion kWh, respectively [3]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The company's operating costs increased by only 13.9% in Q1 2025, despite a 31.2% increase in power generation, leading to a net profit margin of 32.3%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [4].

行业观点 公募基金配置化工行业水平回落的同时龙头企业的持仓集中度也有下滑。2025 年 1 季度公募基金配置化工行业 比例降低至 4.1%，同比下滑 1.6pct，环比下滑 0.7pct，整体处于历史中低位的水平。从公募基金配置化工板块的风 格来看，前十大重仓股总市值占公募基金重仓化工行业的比例明显下滑，由 2024 年 4 季度的 46.2%降低至 2025 年 1 季度的 41.9%，其中聚氨酯龙头万华化学、轮胎龙头赛轮轮胎、煤化工龙头宝丰能源和电解液龙头新宙邦的持仓市值 在化工板块的占比明显下滑，今年 1 季度相比去年 4 季度的降低幅度分别为 2.2pct、1.1pct、1.6pct、2.7pct。 今年 1 季度关注度主要集中在民爆和氟化工板块。从个股重仓市值来看：4 季度获得加仓前五大标的是广东宏大、 振华股份、圣泉集团、三棵树、巨化股份；减仓前五大标的是万华化学、新宙邦、宝丰能源、赛轮轮胎、天赐材料。 从基金持有数量看：持仓数量环比增加前五为振华股份、卫星化学、圣泉集团、三棵树、芭田股份。新晋重仓与退出 重仓来看：新晋重仓标的方面，按 2025 年 1 季度重仓市值排序前五分别为大位科技、唯科科 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.47, 0.47, and 0.49 for 2025 to 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 20, and 19 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.3 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 5.38 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.8% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 41.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company's power generation increased by 4.6% in 2024 and 31.2% in Q1 2025, driven by favorable water conditions, increased storage capacity, new unit commissioning, and strong electricity demand [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price in Q1 2024 was approximately 0.255 yuan/kWh, a decrease of about 0.02 yuan/kWh year-on-year, primarily due to improved water conditions and increased renewable energy supply [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.3 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 6.1% and 8.6% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 results showed a revenue of 5.38 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, marking increases of 21.8% and 41.6% year-on-year [2][4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.79 billion yuan, 8.88 billion yuan, and 9.24 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.47, and 0.49 [5]. Power Generation and Capacity - The company's total power generation in 2024 was 107.93 billion kWh, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, with Q1 2025 generation reaching 19.73 billion kWh, up 30.5% year-on-year. The increase was attributed to favorable water conditions in the Lancang River basin and new hydropower units coming online [3]. - In 2024, the company added 1.8 GW of renewable energy capacity, resulting in wind and solar generation of 4.2 billion kWh and 36.7 billion kWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6.9% and 160.4% [3]. Cost and Profitability - The company's operating costs increased by only 13.9% in Q1 2025, despite a 31.2% increase in power generation, leading to a net profit margin of 32.3%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 30.094 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.064 billion RMB, up 44.36% year-on-year [1] - The company plans a cash dividend of 0.319 RMB per share for 2024, which is a 44.3% increase compared to the previous year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4.1% [1] - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 2.425 billion RMB, 2.459 billion RMB, and 2.461 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - The company’s power generation volume increased by 17.3% year-on-year in 2024, driven by new capacity coming online and a robust demand for electricity in Anhui, which grew at 11.9%, exceeding the national average by 5.1 percentage points [2] - The company’s revenue from power generation also rose by 16.1% year-on-year [2] Cost and Profitability - The average market coal price decreased by 11.4% to 856 RMB per ton in 2024, improving the profitability of thermal power generation [3] - The company’s gross margin for its power generation business improved to 13.9%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Investment and Future Prospects - The company’s investments in joint ventures contributed significantly to its profits, with investment income from associates and joint ventures reaching 1.22 billion RMB, accounting for 35.4% of total profit [3] - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to contribute to future earnings, including the second phase of the Qianyingzi project and several renewable energy projects [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 1.07 RMB, 1.09 RMB, and 1.09 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.25, 7.14, and 7.14 [4]