浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 泡泡玛特（9992.HK） 泡泡玛特（9992.HK）：优秀的 IP 运营能力再 次得到验证，海外扩张将驱动持续高速增长 泡泡玛特 1H24 净利润同比增长 102%，收入同比增长 62%，都高于公 司盈喜公布的预期。中国大陆收入同比大幅增长 32%，充分体现了泡泡 玛特的潮玩产品具有的强逆周期特性。海外收入同比增长 260%，归功 于公司成熟的出海模型和公司潮玩 IP 巨大的出海潜力。基于公司不断 提升的 IP 运营能力以及海外扩张能力，我们坚信泡泡玛特未来的增长 具有很强的确定性与可持续性。维持"买入"评级，泡泡玛特目前是我 们在可选消费行业的首选。 管理层 2H24 指引较为乐观：管理层表示公司有信心 2024 全年收入增 长不低于 60%，海外收入增速不低于 200%。管理层乐观的指引也说明 了公司 1H24 强劲增长的态势在 2H24 仍旧维持。利润率方面，管理层 表示 2H24 毛利率同比将继续扩张，并预计 2024 全年毛利率同比扩张 3.0ppt。尽管管理层表示未来毛利率将稳定在 2024 年的水平，但我们 判断海外业务收入占比的持续增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Giant Biogene (2367 HK) with a target price of HKD 52 0, implying a potential upside of 27 5% from the current price of HKD 40 8 [4][2] Core Views - Giant Biogene's 1H24 results exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit growing 58 2% and 47 4% YoY, respectively, surpassing both the company's guidance and market expectations [2] - The strong performance was driven by the Kefumei brand, which saw a 68 6% YoY revenue increase, contributing 81 5% of total revenue [2] - Online sales grew 69 3% YoY, accounting for 69 7% of total revenue, reflecting the company's successful e-commerce strategy [2] - Management raised full-year guidance, expecting revenue growth slightly above 40% and adjusted net profit growth of around 35%, demonstrating confidence in achieving targets [2] - The company's long-term growth is supported by product matrix expansion and omnichannel development, with new products performing well during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The approval timeline for medical aesthetic products has been delayed to 1Q25 due to stricter regulatory requirements, but the impact on profitability is expected to be limited [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3 524 million in 2023 to RMB 9 025 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 37 0% [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1 452 million in 2023 to RMB 3 322 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 31 0% [3] - The company's gross margin remains strong, forecasted at 82 3% in 2024 and 81 9% in 2026 [3] - ROE is expected to stabilize around 32% from 2024 to 2026, down from 52 0% in 2022, reflecting the company's maturing growth profile [3] - The PE ratio is projected to decline from 25 7x in 2023 to 11 8x in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [3] Industry Context - Giant Biogene operates in the cosmetics industry, which is highly competitive, particularly in the online channel [2] - The company's focus on collagen-based products and medical aesthetics positions it well in the premium skincare segment [2] - The delay in medical aesthetic product approvals highlights the increasing regulatory scrutiny in the industry [2] Peer Comparison - Among covered cosmetics companies, Giant Biogene has a "Buy" rating, similar to Proya (603605 CH) and Betaine (300957 CH), while Huaxi Biotech (688363 CH) has a "Hold" rating [9] - The target price implies a 2024E PE of 19 8x, which is lower than some peers like Proya (24 4x) but higher than Betaine (14 5x) [9][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Weir Shares (603501.CH), with a target price adjusted to RMB 108.4, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of RMB 89.7 [2][3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor cycle shows strong upward momentum, with the company's revenue growth and gross margin improving sequentially in Q2. The gross margin is expected to continue improving in the second half of the year. The company is experiencing growth across its business segments, including mobile, automotive, and display driver sectors [2][3]. - The Q2 performance aligns with the company's earnings forecast, showing a 14% sequential revenue growth and a 43% year-over-year increase. The gross margin reached 30.2%, marking a 2.4 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a 12.9 percentage point increase year-over-year [2][6]. - The company is focusing on high-end projects in mobile CIS, which are expected to drive growth in the second half of the year. The automotive CIS segment is also maintaining high growth through product iteration, while the display driver business is set for significant growth next year [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 26,579 million, with a year-over-year growth rate of 26%. The gross margin is expected to be 30.7% in 2024, improving to 33.6% by 2026 [3][7]. - Net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 3,204 million in 2024, with a significant increase of 477% compared to the previous year. The basic earnings per share are expected to be RMB 2.64 in 2024, rising to RMB 4.25 by 2026 [3][7]. - The report utilizes a DCF valuation method, assuming a WACC of 9.5% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, leading to a target price of RMB 108.4 [2][8][10]. Business Segment Analysis - In the mobile CIS segment, the company is increasing its market share in high-end camera modules, with gross margins expected to exceed 30%. The automotive CIS segment is also projected to grow significantly due to product upgrades and expansion into non-CIS products [2][3]. - The display driver business is expected to maintain its leading position in the market, with an increase in product models and advantages in the supply chain [2][3]. - Continuous investment in R&D is aimed at enhancing product performance and process technology, ensuring competitive advantages and expanding market opportunities [2][3].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 华润啤酒 （291.HK） 华润啤酒（291.HK）：强大的产品矩阵与 管理能力助力公司抵御周期跑赢对手 维持"买入"评级：尽管宏观消费力面临挑战，华润啤酒 1H24 啤酒 销量下滑幅度小于主要竞争对手，高端产品依然录得大幅增长，产品 结构持续改善，平均客单价同比提升幅度亦高于主要竞争对手。以上 都体现了华润啤酒在产品与品牌组合上的优势。基于较强的现金流 （1H24 经营现金流同比大幅增长 25.6%），公司将 1H24 派息率提升 至 26%（相较 1H23 的 20%）。更重要的是，公司在面临业绩压力的 情况下，不轻易缩减费用，坚持对产品的市场投入、坚持长期基本面 的提升、积极通过产品与渠道的调整来应对持续变化的市场趋势和 需求。这些都将利好公司长期可持续的发展，助力公司抵御周期，业 绩跑赢对手。维持"买入"。 行业高端化受阻，但华润的高端化仍在继续：由于现饮渠道面临较大 压力，中国啤酒行业整体高端化趋势减弱。然而，华润啤酒 1H24 的 高端化趋势依然显著。在整体啤酒销量同比下滑 3.4%的情况下，次 高端及以上产品销量同比增长个位数，高端及以上 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 荣昌生物（9995.HK/688331.CH）：2Q24 泰它 西普销售略好于预期，但研发费用高于预期 荣昌生物2Q24收入略超我们预期，主要由于泰它西普销售好于预期； 但净亏损显著高于我们预期，主要由于研发费用显著高于预期及非经 营性开支超出预期。维持"持有"评级及目标价（港股 26 港元、A 股 人民币 35 元）。 ● 2Q24 收入略超我们预期，但净亏损显著高于我们预期：公司 2Q24 实 现收入人民币 4.09 亿元（+63.1% YoY, +23.8% QoQ），其中产品收入为 4 亿元（+59.1% YoY, +20.8% QoQ），大致符合市场预期，略超我们预期， 主要由于泰它西普销售略超我们之前预测；净亏损为 4.32 亿元(+13.7% YoY, +23.7% QoQ)，显著高于市场预期和我们预期，主要由于研发费用显 著高于预期（+63.4% YoY, +43.4% QoQ）以及非经营性开支超出预期。2Q 24 毛利率为 76.8%，环比略微下降（-0.7ppts QoQ），但同比上升明显 (+7.7 ppts YoY)，主要得益于收入规模扩大带来的经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 122 / USD 31, indicating a potential upside of 23% for the Hong Kong stock and 15% for the US stock [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable revenue growth of RMB 291.4 billion in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, aligning with market expectations. The gross margin improved to 15.8%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, and the adjusted net profit surged by 69% to RMB 14.5 billion, exceeding market expectations by 15.7% [1]. - The retail segment's revenue reached RMB 257.1 billion, reflecting a 1.5% year-on-year growth, driven by enhanced supply chain efficiency and disciplined promotions. The logistics revenue also grew by 7.7% year-on-year to RMB 42.2 billion, achieving a record operating margin of 4.9% [1][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a growth rate exceeding the overall retail market for the year, supported by strong user growth and a robust 3P ecosystem, which saw over 20% growth in order volume year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Summary - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY24 is RMB 40.4 billion, with revenue projections adjusted to RMB 1,129.2 billion for FY24 and RMB 1,188.3 billion for FY25, reflecting a P/E ratio of 8.5x for FY24 and 8.7x for FY25 [2][3]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 331.1 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 1.036 billion over the past three months [4][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the adjusted net profit margin, which is expected to reach 3.6% in FY25, up from 3.2% in FY24 [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) with a target price of HKD 85 for the Hong Kong-listed shares and USD 87 for the US-listed shares [30][31] Core Views - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall (T&T) market share remains stable, with international e-commerce losses narrowing sequentially [29] - Cloud business is expected to recover, with external cloud revenue projected to return to double-digit growth in the second half of FY25, driven by AI-related products [25] - FY1Q25 revenue of RMB 2432 billion grew 4% YoY, missing market expectations by 2 6%, while adjusted net profit of RMB 407 billion declined 9% YoY but exceeded market expectations by 7 3% [15] - Alibaba repurchased approximately USD 5 8 billion in shares during FY1Q25, reducing ordinary shares by 2 3% compared to the previous quarter [15] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 868 687 million in FY23 to RMB 1,153,387 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 7 3% [1] - Gross profit is expected to increase from RMB 318,992 million in FY23 to RMB 461,355 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 10 0% [1] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 141,379 million in FY23 to RMB 188,825 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 7 5% [1] - The adjusted target P/E ratio is expected to decline from 10 2x in FY25E to 8 1x in FY27E [1] Segment Performance - T&T revenue declined 1% YoY to RMB 932 billion in FY1Q25, with customer management revenue (CMR) growing only 1% YoY and direct sales revenue dropping 9% YoY [29] - International commerce revenue grew 32% YoY to RMB 293 billion in FY1Q25, with AliExpress Choice showing strong performance and Lazada achieving its first monthly EBITDA profit in July [29] - Cloud revenue increased 6% YoY to RMB 265 billion in FY1Q25, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud and triple-digit growth in AI-related products [25] Valuation and Market Data - Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares (9988 HK) have a current price of HKD 76 4, with a 52-week range of HKD 64 0-93 1 and a market cap of HKD 1,547,639 million [2] - Alibaba's US-listed shares (BABA US) have a current price of USD 79 5, with a 52-week range of USD 66 0-95 8 and a market cap of USD 192,342 million [31] - The 3-month average daily trading volume for Hong Kong-listed shares is HKD 3,405 4 million, while for US-listed shares, it is USD 1,061 9 million [2][31]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 李宁 （2331.HK） 李宁（2331.HK）：转机尚未出现，维持 "持有"评级 去年下半年至今，公司的零售流水、零售折扣、渠道库存和利润率都面 临一定压力。基于公司 1H24 远弱于同业的零售流水表现，我们仍然担 心李宁在消费者心中的品牌力相较同业有减弱的趋势。尽管李宁短期 估值已回落到较低水平，但从数据看，我们认为李宁的基本面转机尚未 出现，股价反弹尚待时日，因此不建议投资者短期盲目抄底。维持"持 有"评级。 2H24 依然充满挑战，管理层下调 2024 全年业绩指引：3Q24 至今，线 下渠道流水依然延续今年 6 月较弱的趋势，同比下滑高单位数。2024 年 8 月上半月线下流水下滑趋势相较 7 月略有好转，但依然比较有压 力。线上流水增长较 7 月有所改善，主要归功于今年 8 月的巴特勒中 国行（去年在 7 月举行）。3Q24 至今线下零售折扣同比小幅加深（1H24 同比改善），电商折扣同比继续改善。在较弱的零售环境下，公司不排 除在 2H24 适当加大折扣力度来促进流水表现，从而可能导致毛利率同 比承压。在较高的基数下，2H24 的市场费用 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 滔搏（6110.HK）：短期收入与利润率承 压，但长期基本面依然稳健 • 短期需求面临挑战，下调 FY25 收入与利润预期：继 1QFY25（2024 年 3-5 月）收入同比下滑中单位数之后，滔搏 6-7 月的收入依然面临较 大挑战。我们预计 6-7 月收入同比下滑高单位数，下滑幅度高于 1QFY25。 尽管 8 月初的零售流水表现出一定的回暖迹象，但可能是受到短期天 气转好以及奥运热度的影响，后续是否可持续依然未知。鉴于现阶段整 体较弱的终端需求，我们下调 FY25 的收入预测至全年同比下跌中单位 数。考虑到收入下降可能带来较大的经营负杠杆，我们预测 FY25 归母 净利润同比下降 17.4%。考虑到较弱的销售趋势以及市场情绪，我们下 调目标价至 3.76 港元（10 倍 CY25 P/E）。维持"买入"评级。 • FY25 恐将面临较大的经营负杠杆：受渠道结构的影响（线上占比增 加），我们保守预计全年零售折扣同比可能有所加深，令毛利率同比小 幅下滑。收入和毛利的下滑无疑将带来较大的经营负杠杆。尽管公司长 期致力于降本增效，但考虑到滔搏本身已经较高的运营效率，我们认为 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 零跑汽车（9863.HK）：C16 增长强劲，毛利 率持续改善 我们重申零跑汽车的"买入"评级。我们下调零跑汽车（9863.HK）目 标价至 28.5 港元，潜在升幅 26%。 重申零跑汽车的"买入"评级：我们大体维持零跑汽车 2024 年 25 万 辆的交付量预测。新车型 C16 订单需求保持强劲，而且并不挤压 C11 和 C10 的需求增长。进一步看，7 月份汽车以旧换新追加政策有望拉动 T03 车型的销量。因此，我们预期零跑今年销量有上行空间。展望明年，零 跑发布 B 系列车型，协同海外的增量市场放量成长，明年汽车交付量 也将维持高速增长。零跑汽车当前市销率为 0.6x，估值具备吸引力，是 我们新能源车行业首选。 汽车毛利率持续改善：零跑二季度毛利率为 2.8%，同比增长 8 个百分 点，环比增长 4.1 个百分点。零跑在二季度持续消化 2023 款车型库存 的同时，毛利率仍然取得环比增长，并呈逐月上升态势。在今年 7 月， 零跑汽车毛利率已经达到 5%以上水平，并有望在今年下半年持续改善。 我们预期公司今年全年毛利率有望达成 5%及以上的目标。由于在新车 型 ...