美国劳动力市场的降温迹象 ——点评 2025 年 2 月非农就业数据 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025 年 03 月 07 日 报告摘要 事件：美国 2 月新增非农就业 15.1 万人（前值下修至 12.5 万人），失业率升至 4.1% （前值 4.0%），平均时薪环比增速降至 0.28%（前值 0.42%）。 图表 1 ：美国新增非农就业人数 来源：WIND，中泰证券研究所 主要观点： 美国 2 月新增就业较前值上升但仍有中期放缓趋势，加之失业率上升、时薪增速下降， 劳动力市场显现一定的降温迹象。向前看，政府裁员的影响值得关注，2 月联邦政府 就业下降 1.0 万人（前值增长 0.5 万人），负面影响已初步显现。假设 2025 年联邦政 府裁员 20 万人转为失业人口，将逐步推升失业率 0.12 个百分点左右。 相关报告 从美联储来看，近期伴随着特朗普关税政策的激进倾向及其强不确定 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the embodied intelligence industry, highlighting its potential as a ceiling for robot development, and recommends investors to pay attention to technological breakthroughs and commercialization progress in this sector [3]. Core Insights - Embodied intelligence is defined as an intelligent system based on physical bodies that perceives and acts through interaction with the environment, leading to intelligent behavior and adaptability [2][8]. - The development of embodied intelligence represents a convergence of robotics and artificial intelligence, with the potential to unlock significant market opportunities, projected to reach trillions in the future [2][3]. - The report identifies two main types of embodied large models: end-to-end models and layered embodied models, with the latter currently being more prevalent due to data limitations [2][3]. Summary by Sections What is Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligence emphasizes intelligent agents with physical bodies interacting with the environment to gain intelligence [8]. - The application of embodied intelligence in robotics can be divided into three stages: perception, reasoning, and execution [2][8]. Embodied Intelligence: Intersection of Robotics and AI - The generality of robots depends on the development of their generalization capabilities, which has evolved from simple automation to more complex, general-purpose robots [21][22]. - The report discusses the historical evolution of robotics from automation tools to intelligent agents that can directly impact the physical world [24]. Future of Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is expected to transition from specialized to general-purpose applications, with a significant focus on commercial viability in industrial manufacturing [2][3]. - The report highlights the anticipated investment boom in embodied intelligence, driven by advancements in AI and robotics [31][34]. Embodied Large Models Empowering Humanoid Robots - The report distinguishes between disembodied models and embodied large models, with the latter capable of generating motion postures linked to physical robots [37]. - It discusses the advantages and challenges of end-to-end models and layered models in the context of embodied intelligence [40][50]. Data Accumulation Methods for Robotics - The report outlines four primary methods for accumulating training data for robots: remote operation, AR, simulation, and video learning, emphasizing the current data scarcity in the robotics field [60][64][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The Beijing Municipal Education Commission has released a plan to advance artificial intelligence education in primary and secondary schools from 2025 to 2027, aiming to establish a distinctive AI education system [6]. - The plan includes the development of a curriculum that integrates AI education into various subjects and encourages the use of external resources such as AI laboratories and experience centers [6]. - The report anticipates a growing demand for AI-related educational content and services, benefiting publishing companies that can adapt their offerings to include AI-focused materials and after-school programs [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the industry is 131, with a total market value of 1,572.50 billion and a circulating market value of 1,429.90 billion [3]. Key Companies - Notable companies mentioned include: - **Wangxin Media**: Focused on scientific visualization and AI education resources [6]. - **Southern Media**: Engaged in educational technology through partnerships [8]. - **Urban Media**: Publishes AI-related educational materials [8]. - Other companies to watch include Dou Shen Education, Century Tianhong, and Xinhua Wenxuan [8]. Market Trends - The report highlights a trend towards integrating AI into educational practices, with an emphasis on enhancing the curriculum and expanding educational resources [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, faces challenges due to aging mines and accidents, leading to a production shortfall compared to initial guidance for the year [4][9] - The company’s copper production for 2023 is projected at 1.4237 million tons, accounting for approximately 6.4% of global output [4][9] - Codelco's production guidance for 2024 is set between 1.325 million and 1.352 million tons, a decrease from earlier estimates [9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Codelco was established in 1976 and is the largest copper producer globally, with total copper resources of 45.01 million tons and an average grade of 0.64% [4][9] - The company operates seven mines and one smelter, with major mines including El Teniente, Radomiro Tomic, and Chuquicamata [4][9] Production and Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, Codelco's copper production decreased by 5% year-on-year, totaling 918,000 tons [4][9] - The production in Q3 2024 was 338,400 tons, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year and a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter [9] - The decline in production is attributed to aging mines and operational accidents, particularly at Radomiro Tomic and El Teniente [9] Cost Analysis - Codelco's cash cost for the first three quarters of 2024 remained stable at $2.10 per pound, compared to $2.00 per pound in 2023 [9] - The stability in costs is due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso and a decrease in energy prices, which offset rising costs from declining ore grades [9] Capital Expenditure and Expansion Projects - Codelco plans to increase production to 1.8 million tons by 2030 through several key projects [9] - Major projects include the Chuquicamata underground mine, Andina mine enhancements, and the Salvador Rajo Inca project, all aimed at extending the lifespan and production capacity of existing mines [7][8][9]

执业证书编号：S0740524030002 计算机设备 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：孙行臻 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 25,855 | 24,062 | 26,553 | 29,398 | 32,851 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 | | 增长率 yoy% | 13% | -7% | 10% | 11% | 12% | | Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,863 | -6,185 | 822 | 1,712 | 2,108 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 60% | -432% | 113% | 108% | 23% | | 基本状况 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.32 | -4.37 | 0.58 | 1.21 | ...

Economic Indicators - The 2025 fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion, with a target deficit rate of around 4%, implying a nominal GDP of approximately 141.5 trillion[2] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 4.9%, slightly below the actual GDP growth target of 5%[2] - The CPI target has been adjusted down to 2%, indicating a focus on improving supply-demand relationships[2] Fiscal Policy - The increase in fiscal deficit and special bonds is expected to contribute approximately 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth, with a total increase of 2.4 trillion compared to 2024[2] - The fiscal multiplier is estimated at 0.6, suggesting that the incremental fiscal deficit will contribute around 1.44 trillion to GDP, accounting for 1.1% of 2024's GDP[2] Monetary Policy - The liquidity tone has shifted from "reasonably ample" to "ample," indicating a potential tightening of the monetary environment[2] - New structural monetary policy tools will be implemented to promote the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets[2] Consumer Spending - A special bond of 300 billion will be issued to support consumer goods replacement, aligning with market expectations[2] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption may be introduced, particularly if external demand weakens[2] Risk Management - The report emphasizes a balanced approach to growth and risk management, stating that development is fundamental to gradually resolving risks[2] - Specific measures include allowing cities greater autonomy in managing housing stock and dynamically adjusting high-risk debt areas[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1,724 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 15% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 189 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [2]. - The company has a strong market position in the semiconductor cleanroom sector, with an estimated market share of approximately 30% in new domestic semiconductor projects [5]. - The successful acquisition of Jiexinlong enhances the company's capabilities to provide comprehensive cleanroom solutions, expanding its product line [5]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with overseas revenue reaching 140 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 86% [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 1,227 million yuan, which increased to 1,505 million yuan in 2023, representing a growth rate of 23% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.41 yuan, with a projected increase to 1.95 yuan in 2025 [2]. - The net asset return rate is expected to rise from 10% in 2024 to 14% in 2026 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.1 in 2025 to 19.5 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2].

钾肥和烯草酮等产品涨价；关注碳纤维及复材在车用领域发展 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：孙颖 | | （元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | 万华化学 | 68.81 | 5.17 | 5.36 | 4.70 | 5.74 | 7.13 | 13.31 | 12.85 | 14.64 | 11.99 | 9.65 | 买入 | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | 华鲁恒升 | 20.55 | 2.96 | 1.68 | 1.80 | 2.19 | 2.63 | 6. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a comprehensive intelligent driving solution provider, focusing on both software and hardware integration, which is expected to drive a new growth cycle through product expansion and customer acquisition [3][9]. - The management team has a strong technical background, with significant experience from Bosch, enhancing the company's research and development capabilities [3][20]. - The company is transitioning its focus from primarily supporting Geely to expanding its partnerships with other domestic automakers like Chery, with new products expected to contribute to revenue growth [3][29]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1.4 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.98 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 50% [2]. - The net profit is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of 194 million CNY in 2024 to a profit of 18 million CNY by 2026 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to turn positive by 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [2]. Product and Market Development - The company has developed a product matrix that includes IFC and IDC series, covering low to high-level intelligent driving capabilities, with a focus on expanding its customer base [22][24]. - The introduction of regulations mandating Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) in vehicles is anticipated to create a significant market opportunity for the company's IFC products, particularly in the lower price segments [5][59]. - The IDC series products are expected to benefit from the trend towards intelligent driving equality, driven by competitors like BYD, which will accelerate the adoption of intelligent driving technologies across various automakers [6][11]. Industry Trends - The penetration rate of L2 and above intelligent driving systems is on the rise, with expectations for further growth as regulations evolve and consumer demand increases [4][40]. - The market for intelligent driving solutions is shifting towards centralized domain control systems, which are more efficient and capable of supporting advanced driving features [45][46]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for integrated intelligent driving solutions, as evidenced by its strategic partnerships and product development initiatives [26][55].

| | | 半导体 | 图表 | 1 | | ： | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 | | ： | | 图表 | 3 | | ： | | 图表 | 4 | | ： | | 图表 | 5 | | ： | | 图表 | 6 | | ： | | 图表 | 7 | | ： | | 图表 | 8 | | ： | | 图表 | 9 | | ： | | 图表 | 10 | ： | | | 图表 | 11 | ： | | | 图表 | 12 | ： | | | 图表 | 13 | 可比公司估值表（截止 年 月 日，单位：亿元） 8 ： 2025 2 28 | | 公司研究简报 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：王芳 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,140 | 2,600 | 3,386 | 4,520 | 6,195 | | | ...