GDC2025 召开在即，游戏+AI 迎新进展 投资评级说明 | | 评级 | 说明 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票评级 | 买入 | 预期未来 | 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 6~12 15%以上 | | | 增持 | 预期未来 | 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 5%~15%之间 | | | 持有 | 预期未来 | 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在-10%~+5%之间 | | | 减持 | 预期未来 | 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数跌幅在 10%以上 | | 行业评级 | 增持 | 预期未来 | 个月内对同期基准指数涨幅在 6~12 10%以上 | | | 中性 | 预期未来 | 6~12 个月内对同期基准指数涨幅在-10%~+10%之间 | | | 减持 | 预期未来 | 个月内对同期基准指数跌幅在 6~12 10%以上 | 传媒 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 评级： 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

农药涨价有望持续；持续关注龙头白马 基础化工 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 | 分析师：孙颖 | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | | --- | --- | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | 分析师：聂磊 | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120003 | Email：nielei@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：王鹏 | 执业证书编号：S0740523020001 | | Email：wangpeng07@zts.com.cn | 分析师：张昆 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524050001 | Email：zhangkun06@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：刘铭政 | 执业证书编号：S0740524070003 | | Email：liumz01@zts.com.cn | 分析师：农誉 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524120001 | Email：nongyu@zts.com.cn | | 基本状况 | | 上市公司数 425 行业总市值(亿元) 35,060.52 行业流通市值(亿元) 31,323.25 ...

执业证书编号：S0740523110002 Email：mazh@zts.com.cn 股份制银行Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：马志豪 | 总股本(百万股) | 19,405.92 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 19,405.57 | | 市价(元) | 11.97 | | 市值(百万元) | 232,288.84 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 232,284.70 | 1、《详解平安银行 2024 中报：净利 润同比增+1.9%；调结构继续、中期 分红方案落地》2024-08-19 2、《详解平安银行 2024 年一季报： 净利润同比增 2.3%；调结构继续、 拨备释放利润增速企稳》2024-04-24 详解平安银行 2024 年报： 调结构显效，营收降幅收窄，资产质量夯实 平安银行（000001.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's operating performance meets expectations, and shareholder confidence is reflected in increased holdings [2]. - The acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power Group is expected to enhance profitability sustainably [4]. - The company has successfully increased coal production to offset the impact of declining coal prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.196 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.97% [4]. - The company’s coal production reached 170 million tons in 2024, up 4.13% year-on-year, and continued to show an upward trend in early 2025 [4]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 184.145 billion yuan, 165.491 billion yuan, and 168.457 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 22.196 billion yuan, 18.207 billion yuan, and 19.309 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.29 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 1.99 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 8.8X for 2024, 10.8X for 2025, and 10.1X for 2026 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 1.8 for 2024, 1.6 for 2025, and 1.4 for 2026 [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2022 to 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 6.80% for 2024 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 10%+ in the second half of FY2025, despite challenges in the overall consumption environment [5]. - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a focus on product innovation and brand upgrades, which are anticipated to drive sales during the off-season [5]. - The company's strategic transformation has solidified its position as an expert in down jackets, with a continued emphasis on enhancing product quality and expanding product categories [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 16,774 million - 2024A: 23,214 million (growth rate: 38%) - 2025E: 25,681 million (growth rate: 11%) - 2026E: 28,930 million (growth rate: 13%) - 2027E: 32,426 million (growth rate: 12%) [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 2,139 million - 2024A: 3,074 million (growth rate: 44%) - 2025E: 3,521 million (growth rate: 15%) - 2026E: 4,041 million (growth rate: 15%) - 2027E: 4,562 million (growth rate: 13%) [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.18 - 2024A: 0.27 - 2025E: 0.30 - 2026E: 0.35 - 2027E: 0.39 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E: - 2024A: 14.0 - 2025E: 12.3 - 2026E: 10.7 - 2027E: 9.5 - P/B: - 2024A: 3.1 - 2025E: 2.5 - 2026E: 2.0 - 2027E: 1.7 [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively integrating new digital technologies with traditional business models to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making accuracy [5]. - The introduction of AI-designed products has significantly reduced the development time for new designs, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation [5]. - The company is focusing on sustainable development across its entire supply chain, achieving a leading ESG rating [5].

夏秋航季控量或保价，航司盈利改善可期待 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 分析师：李鼎莹 执业证书编号：S0740524080001 Email：lidy@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 127 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 32,202.68 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 29,947.33 | 行业-市场走势对比 相关报告 好红利资产投资机会》2025-03-12 望缓解》2025-03-09 空行情》2025-03-02 交通运输 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：杜冲 板块涨跌幅：本周交运板块上涨 1.2%，表现劣于大盘。交运行业细分板块中涨幅前 三的分别为快递指数(3.6%)、物流综合指数(2.6%)、航运指数(2.3%)；跌幅前三的分 别为航空指数(-1.7%)、公路指数(-1.0%)、公交指数(-0.5%)。航空机场板块中涨幅前 三的分别为厦门空港(4.0%)、上海机场(0.9%)、深圳机场( ...

如何看待本轮美股风险与对国内科技股影响？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《国内普林格阶段三真的来了？》 2025-03-11 2、《"两会"政府工作报告有何指 引？》2025-03-09 3、《关税大棒后，科技股回调怎么 看？》2025-03-04 报告摘要 当前投资者需关注高位科技股（中小市值）的风险，建议关注低位的安全类资产：有 色、军工、核电。今年基本面为"风险偏好与现实的割裂"。两会后，市场开始关注 现实因素，高位科技股的调整压力将加大。另外，从资金面来看，当前科创板高估值 主要由杠杆资金推动，整体风险较大。政策方面，未来资本市场或逐步开放，将弱化 壳资源价值，进而对中小盘造成影响。 安全类资产的主线：恒生科技代表的国内 AI 产业趋势，政策定力下的债市、红利为代 表的防御类资产，以及特朗普全球冲击下的安全类资产，将是今年三大产业趋势。以 欧 ...

华为新品发布在即：首款原生鸿蒙手机亮相，双模型加持 AI 升级 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 360 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 48,474.81 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 41,754.62 | 1、《DeepSeek 银行部署加速， AI 金融应用迎来跃迁》2025-03-14 2、《机器人系列报告一：具身智能 ——决定机器人泛化能力天花板的 "大小脑"》2025-03-10 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：孙行臻 最新进展：首款原生鸿蒙手机即将问世，端侧商业化迎拐点。华为官方宣布将于 2025 年 3 月 20 日 14:30 正式举办华为 Pura 先锋盛典及鸿蒙智行新品发布会，届时将上线 首款搭载原生鸿蒙正式版手机。该产品价格亲民，并在硬件、软件和生态方面实现了 全新的突破。本次发布会还将明确自 2025 年起所有华为新品（包括手机、平板、穿 戴设备等）均会搭载原生鸿蒙系统，存量设备也将分批升级。 智能升级：双模型加持全新小艺 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in its financial results, with a projected revenue growth of 19% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 24,016 million yuan, and a net profit growth of 20% to 3,841 million yuan [4][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of new production capacities, with four new factories launched in 2024, which will alleviate previous capacity constraints [4]. - The collaboration with major clients like Adidas is deepening, providing a robust growth driver as production ramps up [4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 20,114 million yuan in 2023 to 32,153 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is expected to increase from 3,200 million yuan in 2023 to 5,031 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of about 13% [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.74 yuan in 2023 to 4.31 yuan in 2026 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 24.1 in 2023 to 15.4 in 2026, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to a total payout of approximately 23.34 billion yuan, which represents 60.8% of the net profit [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on strong domestic automotive manufacturers, emphasizing the importance of complete vehicles, intelligent driving, and robotics for the year [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report continues to favor strong domestic automotive brands and highlights investment opportunities in complete vehicles and intelligent driving technologies for 2025 [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see limited seasonal adjustments, with a focus on strong domestic brands and the robotics industry chain [6]. - The report suggests that the automotive sector will likely experience a reversal in order volumes, recommending continued attention to investment opportunities in the automotive sector for 2025 [6]. Market Tracking - Weekly core data indicates that total insurance volume for the week of March 3-9 was 360,000 units, below the 400,000 weekly threshold, with a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month decrease of 13% [6]. - New energy vehicle insurance volume for the same week was 200,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 52% and a month-on-month decrease of 8%, with a penetration rate of 56% [6]. - Exports in January totaled 380,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7%, with expectations for continued high growth in domestic brands' overseas expansion [6]. Industry Prosperity - The report notes a recovery in orders post-Chinese New Year, with expectations for normalization by the end of March, particularly for brands like BYD, Geely, and Xiaomi [6]. - The report highlights that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has rapidly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 3-17 percentage points [34]. - The report anticipates that the share of strong domestic brands will increase by 8-14% in 2025, with several strong domestic manufacturers expected to see significant opportunities for growth [6]. Stock Tracking - The report recommends focusing on stocks such as Xiaomi and BYD in the short term, while waiting for other automotive stocks to reach attractive valuation levels [6]. - Specific stock performance highlights include BYD's weekly delivery of 61,000 units and expected sales of 235,000 units in March, despite a year-on-year decrease of 10% [39]. - The report also notes that new energy vehicle brands like Li Auto and Xiaopeng are expected to see significant year-on-year increases in sales [39].