Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for January 2025 dropped significantly to 49.1, a decrease of 1.0, falling below the expansion threshold due to the early Spring Festival and increased export risks [1] - The production index fell to 49.8, the lowest in nearly 20 months, primarily due to employees returning home for the Spring Festival, which weakened production activities [1] - New orders and new export orders indices decreased to 49.2 and 46.4 respectively, both hitting 11-month lows, influenced by the early Spring Festival and delayed consumption demand due to subsidy policies [1] Group 2 - The inventory index for finished goods dropped to 46.5, the lowest in a year and a half, indicating a cautious replenishment attitude among enterprises amid external uncertainties [1] - The construction PMI fell to a historic low of 49.3, affected by seasonal factors and weak investment, with expectations of a rebound post-Spring Festival [1] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased to 50.3 but remained in the expansion zone, supported by growth in travel and hospitality services as the Spring Festival approached [1] Group 3 - The report anticipates a significant seasonal rebound in manufacturing PMI in February and March 2025, with expectations of maintaining a stable growth in the second quarter [1] - The domestic policy focus for 2025 is expected to be on substantial consumer subsidies and optimizing local government debt structures, with infrastructure investment growth projected to remain stable [1] - The monetary policy in 2025 is likely to be constrained by domestic credit demand and exchange rate stabilization priorities, while fiscal policy is expected to play a more prominent role in stimulating the economy [1]

Profit Trends - In December, industrial enterprise profits showed a significant improvement, with a year-on-year decline of only -3.3%, rebounding by 18.3 percentage points from November to reach a near 11-month high of 11.0%[1] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises in December increased by 3.7 percentage points to 4.2%, marking a high level for the year, which significantly boosted profit growth compared to November[1] - The cumulative cost rate for December dropped by 0.18 percentage points to 85.16%, reversing a five-month trend of deep profit drag from operating costs to a positive contribution of +5.3 percentage points[1] Sector Performance - All three major sectors (manufacturing, mining, and utilities) saw profit improvements, but the reasons varied; mining and utilities benefited mainly from cost reductions, while manufacturing profits were driven by "two new" subsidies and export boosts[1] - Manufacturing sector profits narrowed their year-on-year decline to -3.9%, with revenue improving by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a positive operational trend[1] - In specific manufacturing segments, profits improved due to fiscal "two new" subsidies and export boosts, with notable gains in computer communication and electrical machinery sectors[1] Inventory and Economic Outlook - Nominal finished goods inventory remained low at 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a potential peak in the current inventory replenishment cycle, with actual inventory growth declining by 0.2 percentage points to 5.7%[1] - The report suggests that the 2025 domestic consumption stimulus policies need to be robust and sustained to significantly boost industrial enterprise confidence[1] - For 2025, the expected scale of central government subsidies for consumption is projected to reach around 500 billion, which aligns with previous expectations and is anticipated to stimulate durable goods demand[1] Risks and Challenges - The external environment for export enterprises is expected to be more uncertain in 2025, with potential risks from increased tariffs and trade policies[1] - The report highlights that the overall industrial profit growth trend in 2024 was weak due to several factors, including real estate market adjustments and external pressures on high-end exports[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in its annual performance, driven by the accelerated release of ceramic heaters and a rapid increase in customer procurement demand [2][3] - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is between 840 million to 860 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 74.83% to 79.00%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 302 million to 312 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 268.92% to 281.14% [2][10] - The growth is attributed to the domestic substitution of key components in semiconductor equipment, successful industrialization of new products and materials, and a rebound in global semiconductor capital expenditure [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 8.48 billion yuan, with growth rates of 76.5% for 2024, 33.0% for 2025, and 25.6% for 2026 [5][11] - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 309 million yuan, with growth rates of 277.1% for 2024, 39.7% for 2025, and 30.1% for 2026 [10][11] Product Development and Market Demand - The company has accelerated the release of ceramic heaters, which are crucial components for semiconductor wafer manufacturers, addressing key bottlenecks in the industry [3] - New products and materials have been successfully industrialized, with a focus on high-value, high-technical-difficulty products such as ceramic heaters and electrostatic chucks [4] - The demand from customers in the semiconductor sector is rapidly increasing, driven by a recovery in capital expenditure and the ongoing push for domestic production of key components [4] Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 25.64 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 3.32 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.71 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 83.1 for 2024, decreasing to 45.7 by 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][9] Core Viewpoints - The new policy for distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems has been implemented, laying a foundation for both quantitative and qualitative growth in the industry [4] - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed PV is expected to reach 370 million kilowatts, accounting for 42% of total PV installed capacity, with new installations of 120 million kilowatts making up 43% of new PV installations [4] - The distributed PV generation is projected to generate 346.2 billion kilowatt-hours, representing 41% of total PV generation [4] - The new management measures aim to support the healthy and sustainable development of distributed PV, balancing development and regulation [4] - The policy encourages the integration of distributed PV into the electricity market, with significant increases in market participation ratios for distributed PV and wind power [4] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The National Energy Administration revised the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation," promoting sustainable growth [4] - The policy emphasizes the need for new projects to meet the "Four Requirements" for grid connection, reflecting a trend that may become a common requirement across provinces [4] Market Dynamics - The management measures facilitate the entry of distributed PV into the market, with a target of 60% participation for PV in 2025 [4] - The introduction of virtual power plants and aggregator models is expected to accelerate the penetration of new business models in the distributed PV sector [5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on upgrading and transforming distribution networks, as the ongoing electricity market reform presents both challenges and opportunities for market participants [5] - Continuous growth potential in distributed PV is anticipated, driven by increasing demand for green electricity and carbon emission controls [5]

Fiscal Policy Outlook - In 2025, fiscal policy is expected to become the primary proactive policy source, with a focus on boosting domestic consumption through a planned allocation of 500 billion yuan from special bonds for high-intensity consumption subsidies[1] - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to have limited increases, with a significant rise in the deficit ratio expected to reach 3.6%-4.0% due to a large fiscal revenue gap and declining land transfer fees[1] - Special bonds are anticipated to expand to 4.2 trillion yuan, with approximately 800 billion yuan earmarked for affordable housing and recovering idle land, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[1] Fiscal Revenue Insights - In December, general public budget revenue reached 2.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.3%, driven primarily by a 93.8% increase in non-tax revenue, contributing 22.2 percentage points to the monthly growth[2] - Tax revenue's contribution to fiscal income growth slightly decreased to 2.0 percentage points, with consumption subsidies positively impacting VAT, corporate income tax, and consumption tax, which collectively contributed 6.3 percentage points to the monthly revenue[2] - Land transfer revenue for the year ended at 4.87 trillion yuan, marking a 16% decline, while government fund income rebounded by 19.8% in December, indicating a recovery in land sales activity[2] Expenditure and Debt Management - December's general public budget expenditure rose by 5.8% year-on-year, supporting a cumulative annual growth rate of 3.6%, close to the 2024 fiscal expenditure target[2] - Regular expenditures, particularly in education, social security, and health, contributed significantly to the monthly expenditure growth, while investment-related spending remained stable[2] - The execution of debt replacement has been decisive, alleviating corporate debt burdens, but improvements in fiscal and economic cycles are expected to take time[2]

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to experience a short-term uptrend after the Spring Festival, driven by policy easing, external events, and liquidity conditions [4][7] - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 11 out of 15 years within 10 trading days after the Spring Festival [4][7] - The report recommends holding stocks during the Spring Festival, as the risks are expected to be limited, and the market may strengthen post-holiday [4][11] Weekly Focus: Holding Stocks or Cash During Spring Festival - Post-Spring Festival market performance is heavily influenced by policies, external events, and liquidity conditions [4][7] - Policy easing and positive external events tend to strengthen the market, while tightening policies or negative events may weaken it [4][7] - Liquidity easing, such as central bank rate cuts, has historically led to stronger post-holiday market performance [4][7] Weekly Strategy: Potential Spring Market Rally - Economic and profit recovery trends are expected to continue, with consumer spending likely to rebound due to holiday travel and policy support [16][17] - Liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential further easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts [24][26] - Risk appetite is expected to rise post-holiday, with limited risks during the holiday period [32] Industry Allocation: Focus on Tech, Consumer, and Low-Valuation Sectors - High-growth sectors and those with seasonal effects, such as tech, consumer goods, and finance, tend to outperform before the Spring Festival [36][39] - Communication, agriculture, and automotive sectors have shown strong year-end profit growth, which may positively impact market performance [41][43] - Sectors with low export exposure to the US and high domestic reliance, such as communication and textiles, are less likely to be impacted by potential tariff increases [43][44] - Strategic high-tech industries, including semiconductors and medical devices, have seen increased domestic production rates, reducing their vulnerability to tariff shocks [44][48]

Trade Policy Impact - Trump's consideration of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada could significantly impact China's exports[2] - Anticipated "rush exports" may lead to a natural decline in exports post-December, with a potential decrease in 2025 exports due to preemptive actions taken by various industries[2] - Increased tariffs could raise prices of goods exported to the U.S., reducing export volumes despite a declining share of U.S. exports since 2018[2] Currency and Economic Outlook - The cautious approach of Trump regarding tariffs has led to a temporary appreciation of the RMB, with the USD index dropping from nearly 110 to around 107.5 as of January 24[8] - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike of 25 basis points has further alleviated upward pressure on the USD index[8] - China's monetary policy adjustments, including a slowdown in net bond purchases and maintaining interest rates, have contributed to the RMB's temporary recovery[10] Future Projections and Risks - The net export growth that contributed 1.5 percentage points to China's economic growth in 2024 faces significant uncertainty due to potential tariffs and trade barriers[12] - The RMB may face depreciation pressures if the USD index rebounds after the initial high inflation period in the U.S.[12] - The ultimate source of financial allocation is linked to household wealth management, which is directly related to the real estate cycle's stabilization[12]

2025 年 01 月 23 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 泰凌微（688591.SH） 公司快报 24 年业绩超预期，产品升级遇见端侧 AI 大时代 事件点评：公司发布 2024 年业绩预告，报告期内，公司预计实现营业收入为 8.44 亿 元左右，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加 2.08 亿元左右，同比增加 33% 左右；预计实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为 9,700 万元左右，与上年同期（法定 披露数据）相比，将增加 4,723 万元左右，同比增加 95%左右；预计实现归属于母公 司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为 9,100 万元左右，与上年同期（法定披露数 据）相比，将增加 6,809 万元左右，同比增加 297%左右。 倍、27.5 倍，考虑到公司营收体量还处于向上爬坡阶段，未来两年营收增长带来的 规模效应有望逐步释放，以 2025 年 1 月 23 日收盘价计算，公司 2025 年营收对应 的 PS 为 7.62 倍，低于公司成立至今的 PS（TTM）均值 8.95 倍，本次将公司投资评 级由增持上调至买入。 国产蓝牙龙头厂商，24 年 Q4 单季度营收创历史新高： 公司的主要业务是低功 ...

Group 1 - The overall equity position of actively managed equity public funds decreased to 85.1% in Q4 2024, down 0.07 percentage points from Q3 2024 [4][5][11] - The main sectors where funds increased their positions include electronics, banking, and electric power equipment, while they reduced positions in non-ferrous metals and pharmaceuticals [9][11][18] - The top five sectors by position in actively managed equity funds as of Q4 2024 are electronics (17.9%), electric power equipment (13.0%), pharmaceuticals (10.0%), food and beverage (8.4%), and automobiles (6.3%) [11][18][23] Group 2 - The concentration of holdings in the top 20 stocks of funds decreased in Q4 2024, with the top 30 concentration dropping from 36.9% to 35.6% [19][23] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in holdings for consumer sectors, certain cyclical industries, and growth sectors in Q1 2025, driven by seasonal effects and policy support [28][29] - Specific sectors to watch for potential recovery include beauty care, social services, textiles, and retail in the consumer category, as well as steel and chemicals in cyclical industries [28][29]

Group 1 - The report predicts that the scale of institutional capital inflow into A-shares may increase, with annual average insurance capital inflow estimated at approximately 90 to 110 billion yuan, and potential incremental inflow ranging from 2 to 3.5 trillion yuan [4][7][9] - The report outlines that from 2025, large state-owned insurance companies are expected to allocate 30% of their newly added premiums to invest in A-shares, leading to an overall potential annual insurance capital inflow of about 90 to 110 billion yuan from 2025 to 2030 [4][7][9] - The report suggests that foreign capital is likely to maintain a net inflow trend, with the net inflow scale for 2025 estimated to be between 60 to 150 billion yuan, supported by policies encouraging foreign investment in A-shares [4][9][10] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the scale of public funds will further increase, with an expected addition of 300 to 500 billion shares in 2025, driven by a policy that mandates a minimum annual growth of 10% in the market value of A-shares held by public funds [4][12][14] - Historical data indicates that the new issuance of public funds is expected to grow annually, with various scenarios predicting new public fund shares in 2025 ranging from 330 to 500 billion shares depending on different growth rates [4][12][14] - The report highlights that the total market value of A-shares held by public funds could exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2026, reinforcing the stabilizing role of institutional investors in the equity market [4][12][14]