Core Insights - The domestic automotive market is experiencing strong recovery, with February 2025 sales reaching 1.688 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [2] - The market share of domestic brands has exceeded 70.6%, reflecting a significant growth in consumer preference for local manufacturers [2][3] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 45.1% of total domestic sales, marking a 12.4 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [2] Domestic Market Performance - In February 2025, traditional fuel vehicle sales were 927,000 units, up 14.3% year-on-year, while NEV sales reached 760,000 units, a remarkable 92.6% increase [2] - The total domestic automotive sales for February 2025 were 2.129 million units, with NEVs contributing significantly to this growth [1][2] - The expected subsidy scale for vehicle replacements is projected to exceed 400 billion yuan, accounting for 8% of total automotive sales [2] Export Performance - In February 2025, total vehicle exports reached 441,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with NEVs making up 29.7% of total exports [4] - Traditional fuel vehicle exports were 310,000 units, growing by 4.9%, while NEV exports surged to 131,000 units, a 60.5% increase [4] - BYD showed the most significant growth in exports, reaching 71,000 units, doubling its export volume compared to the previous year [4] Investment Strategy - The domestic automotive market is expected to continue its upward trajectory driven by policy incentives and technological innovations [5] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong cost advantages and market positioning in the automotive sector [8] - Key players in the supply chain, such as Chuanhuan Technology and Ningbo Gaofa, are identified as potential beneficiaries of the ongoing market trends [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as it is expected to outperform the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next six months [19]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic automotive market is experiencing a strong recovery, driven by unprecedented subsidy policies, with a total subsidy scale expected to exceed 400 billion yuan, accounting for 8% of automotive sales [4][3]. - In February 2025, domestic automobile sales reached 1.688 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%, with traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles growing by 14.3% and 92.6% respectively [4][3]. - The market share of domestic brands in passenger vehicles has surpassed 70.6%, reflecting a significant increase of 11.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic sales reached 45.1%, up 12.4 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - In February 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.103 million and 2.129 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 39.6% and 34.4% [3]. - New energy vehicle sales reached 889,200 units, with a year-on-year growth of 91.5% [3]. - The sales of pure electric vehicles reached 426,000 units, growing by 94% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid vehicles saw a growth of 83% [5]. Export Performance - In February 2025, automobile exports totaled 441,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 29.7% of total exports [6]. - The export of plug-in hybrid vehicles grew by 2.2 times, indicating a strong trend in hybrid vehicle exports [6]. Investment Strategy - The domestic automotive market is characterized by accelerated electrification and the strong rise of domestic brands, supported by policy incentives and technological innovation [6]. - The focus of competition in the automotive industry is shifting towards the field of intelligence, with leading companies in smart driving and data training expected to capture more market share [6]. Future Outlook - The trend towards hybridization is expected to continue, with internal combustion engines likely to exist in hybrid forms for the long term [11]. - Key suppliers in the automotive parts sector are identified, including leading companies in various components such as川环科技 and 宁波高发 [11].

东 兴 晨 报 营运能力持续改善，市占率持续提升。2024 年公司营业周期为 169.71 天， 同比减少 12.97 天，逐季持续改善，这主要是公司存货天数持续下降带动。 2024 年公司存货周转天数为 132.28 天，同比减少 13.29 天。净营业周期同 比减少 1.16 天，较 2024 年前三季度同比减少的天数有减少，主要是公司应 收账款天数同比略增 0.33 天，以及应付账款周转天数同比下降 11.79 天。 公司总体运营能力在持续改善。运营效率的提升带来产销量的持续增长，公 司粗纱和电子布产销量创历史新高。在2024年全球玻纤纱产量同比增速4.6% 和中国池窑纱同比增速为 5.7%的情况下，公司产销量增速远远超过全球和全 国的增速，带来公司全球和全国市场占有率的持续提升。 玻纤龙头全球布局，现金充裕重研发打造行业新格局。公司作为全球玻纤龙 头，在当前需求低迷的环境下营业收入能够更快的增长，得益于公司规模成 本优势、产品结构的不断优化、以及技术和管理水平的不断提升。公司在利 润下滑的情况下，研发费用依然保持增长，2024 年年研发费用 5.28 亿元， 同比增长 1.72%。同时，公司现金充裕， ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴交运】中通快递-W（02057.HK）：散件增长带动单票收入提升，25 年 重心重回份额增长（20250325） 事件：公司发布 2024 年报，公司四季度单季完成业务量 96.65 亿件，同比 增长 11.0%，市场份额下降 1.6pct 至 18.8%。四季度单季公司调整后净利润 27.33 亿元，同比增长 23.4%。公司全年归母净利润 88.17 亿元，调整后净 利润 101.5 亿元，同比增长 12.7%。 Q4 市场份额下降，25 年将重点提升份额：Q4 公司完成业务量 96.65 亿件， 业务量增速 11.0%，低于行业均值的 20.2%，市场份额下降 1.6pct 至 18.8%。 24 年全年业务量 340.1 亿件，同比增长 12.6%，市场份额 19.4%，同比下降 1.5pct。低价值电商包裹比例的不断上升，对公司实现服务质量、市场份额 和利润持续同步增长的整体战略带来了挑战，挑战主要在于如何实现市场份 额的增长。公司表示已经重新锚定了业务重心，25 年的首要任务是实现业务 量增速超越行业均值，即提升市场份额。此外，公司预计 25 年业 ...

回归基本面 重视海洋经济 2025 年 3 月 24 日 A 股策略 策略周报 | | | 周度观点： 回归基本面。市场上周强势突破后并未延续强势走势，呈现出震荡下行的态势。市场并未有重大事件的背景下，影响行 情的因素，一方面是前期核心板块涨幅较大，在市场总体成交量并未有效放大的情况下，市场拥挤度到一定程度必然出 现阶段性调整，这是由市场资金面决定的；另一方面，市场进入业绩密集发布阶段，一些依靠题材炒作的个股面临业绩 考验，市场避险情绪上升，市场更加关注业绩层面的变化。进入 4 月投资者更应关注基本面，对于一些业绩较差，一些 有退市风险个股应尽可能远离，从题材角度考虑，也应该选择基本面较好的公司。历史来看，4 月行情都偏震荡，是一 个重要的行情观察点和转折点，中美关系在特朗普上台落地一些政策后的走向也值得关注，同时，国内政策落地速度明 显加快，经济数据走向也是市场后续关注的重点。我们倾向于，市场仍处在牛市周期里的震荡阶段，未来方向向上的趋 势并未改变。 重视海洋经济。海洋经济是两会提到相当重要位置的新方向，可以对标 2024 年低空经济行情。2024 年春季行情的核心 板块之一就是低空经济，在政策不断加持下， ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴宏观】美联储下调经济增长预期，认为关税通胀压力一过性——3 月 美国 FOMC 点评（20250320） 美联储维持当前政策利率水平，同时减缓 QT 节奏。 主要观点： 鲍威尔认为关税引起的通胀为一过性是基本情景，但不确定性显著提升。 美联储整体偏鸽，不会用加息应对关税引发的价格上涨。 我们猜测，若关税引发通胀上涨尚未回落而经济活动放缓，美联储可能仍会 选择先行降息。 鲍威尔认为经济数据非常稳健，劳动力市场处于平衡状态。鲍威尔认为，当 前劳动力市场是解雇率和雇佣率双低，希望找到工作的人等待时间更长。劳 动力市场处于这种平衡状态已有 6-7 个月。华盛顿公务员解雇目前还是局域 性的，没有看见全国范围的解雇率的抬升。如果经济仍保持强劲，通胀回落 至 2%的进程拉长，美联储可以延长停留在当前利率水平的时间。 鲍威尔认为关税引起的通胀为一过性是基本情景，但不确定性显著提升。鲍 威尔认为目前很难从通胀数据中区分关税和非关税的影响。美联储注意到， 过去 2 个月商品价格的持续上行是非常意外的，不确定是否为偶然，还是因 为关税引起消费者提前购买引发价格上涨。关税对价格的影响 ...

P1 首席周观点：2025 年第 12 周 2025 年 3 月 20 日 首席观点 周度观点 张天丰 | 东兴证券金属首席分析师 DONGXING SECURITIES 东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2025年第12周 S1480520100001，021-25102914，Zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn 金属行业：四川黄金（001337.SZ）：资源及成本优势持续优化的西部矿产金龙 头（1）-资源成长性分析 西部矿产金龙头。四川黄金成立于 2006 年 8 月，由四川省地质矿产勘查开发局下属国有企 业双流容大（现四川黄金集团有限公司）牵头合资设立。公司于 2023 年 3 月 3 日以"四川 容大黄金股份有限公司"之名在深圳证券交易所主板上市，后于 2024 年 4 月 17 日更名为四 川黄金股份有限公司。公司业务主要围绕梭罗沟金矿矿山建设、开采、选矿及金精矿、合质 金的销售展开。公司委托供应商完成剥离、爆破、铲装及运输等矿山作业，独立完成选矿工 作，将采出的原生矿和氧化矿通过浮选与喷淋浸出得到金精矿与合质金产品，随后销售给下 游冶炼或精炼企业。经过多年发展，公司已成为国内主要的金矿采选企业之 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 178.81 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The company sold 71.602 million pigs in 2024, a 12.2% increase year-on-year, with a target of 72-78 million for 2025 [1] - The complete cost of pig farming decreased from approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024 to a target of 12 yuan/kg in 2025, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The slaughtering segment achieved monthly profitability in December 2024, with a reduction in average losses per head from 70 yuan in 2023 to 50 yuan in 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its overseas business and enhancing its technological capabilities in smart farming applications [2] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 206.29 billion yuan, 220.67 billion yuan, and 353.65 billion yuan respectively, with EPS expected to be 3.88, 4.03, and 6.46 yuan [3] - The company’s PE ratios for the same years are forecasted to be 10, 10, and 6 times [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 142.48 billion yuan in 2025 to 162.78 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 13.77% in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][13]. Core Views - China Jushi, as a leading player in the fiberglass industry, continues to enhance its market share despite challenging market conditions [4][7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 15.856 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.7% to 2.445 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company’s operational efficiency is improving, with a reduction in the operating cycle to 169.71 days, down by 12.97 days year-on-year, driven by a decrease in inventory turnover days [6][7]. Revenue and Profitability - The sales volume of fiberglass yarn and products reached 3.025 million tons, up 21.91% year-on-year, while electronic cloth sales increased by 4.76% to 875 million meters [4]. - Despite a decline in fiberglass prices in 2024, the company managed to narrow the decline in net profit, particularly in the third and fourth quarters, where the fourth quarter saw a remarkable increase of 146.04% year-on-year [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and management, targeting growth in new markets such as TP thermoplastic short fibers and small direct yarns [4][7]. - With a strong cash position of 3.123 billion yuan and a stable asset-liability ratio, the company is well-positioned to withstand risks and invest in research and development, which increased by 1.72% to 528 million yuan in 2024 [7][14]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.138 billion, 3.872 billion, and 4.611 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.97, and 1.15 yuan [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Jushi [2][13] Core Views - China Jushi, as a leading player in the fiberglass industry, continues to enhance its market share despite adverse market conditions [4][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 15.856 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.7% to 2.445 billion yuan [3][4] - The company’s operational efficiency is improving, with a reduction in inventory turnover days and an increase in sales volume, leading to a significant rise in market share [6][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 3.025 million tons of fiberglass yarn and products, a year-on-year increase of 21.91%, and electronic cloth sales reached 875 million meters, up 4.76% [4] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to recover, with a significant increase of 146.04% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year [5] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 3.138 billion, 3.872 billion, and 4.611 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.97, and 1.15 yuan [7][14] Market Position and Strategy - China Jushi's global layout and strong cash position allow it to mitigate international trade friction impacts and invest in R&D, with R&D expenses increasing by 1.72% to 528 million yuan in 2024 [7][14] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and expanding into high-end markets, which is expected to enhance its international competitiveness [7][13]