电子/半导体 盛科通信（688702.SH） 把握国产化浪潮，加大高端芯片研发投入 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 62.86 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 97.68/31.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 257.73 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 126.66 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.10 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.01 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 77.65 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 盛科通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《发力高规格交换芯片，有望受益于 国产化浪潮—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.18 蒋颖（分析师） 雷星宇（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 leixingyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124040002 加大高端芯片投入，丰富中低端产品系列，维持"买入"评级 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced significant new customer growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% due to the impact of new factory ramp-up on profitability [7][8] - The report anticipates improved gross margins in Q2 2025 as scale effects and new factory ramp-up take effect, with long-term optimism regarding new customer volume and increased market share from existing customers [7][8] Financial Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion yuan, with a volume increase of 8.24% and a price increase of 3.8%. The gross margin was 22.9%, down 5.5 percentage points due to initial training periods for new employees at new factories [7][8] - The company plans to accelerate the construction of new factories to meet the growing demand from new customers, with two new factories in Indonesia and Sichuan launched in Q1 2025, and further expansions planned in Vietnam and Indonesia [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 4.1 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.1, 13.8, and 12.0 times [7][9] Operational Capability - As of Q1 2025, the company had a net operating cash flow of 1.21 billion yuan, with inventory at 3.67 billion yuan and accounts receivable at 3.31 billion yuan, indicating a stable operational capability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, with a gradual emergence of a main bullish market [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.128 billion, 7.285 billion, and 8.535 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.90, 2.70, and 3.16 yuan [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: fluorochemical raw materials (326 million yuan, +26.90%), refrigerants (2.618 billion yuan, +64.63%), and other segments [6] - The average price of refrigerants in Q1 2025 increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 58.08% to 37,504 yuan/ton [6] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 20.655 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 28.642 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [8] Market Trends - The report highlights a continuous increase in air conditioning production in China, with expected growth rates of 9.9%, 14.1%, and 14.3% from May to July 2025 [7] - The demand for air conditioning in overseas markets is also strong, with significant sales increases reported by major manufacturers [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.736 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.5% to 503 million yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue was 949 million yuan, down 13.5%, with a net profit of 28 million yuan, down 84.0%. Due to rising costs and increased competition, profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards, with new estimates for net profit at 672 million yuan for 2025, 803 million yuan for 2026, and 927 million yuan for 2027. The expected EPS for these years is 1.59, 1.90, and 2.19 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.4, 21.2, and 18.4 times [5][8][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.736 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 503 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33.5%. For Q1 2025, revenue was 949 million yuan, down 13.5%, and net profit was 28 million yuan, down 84.0% [5][8]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while Q1 2025 saw an improvement in gross margin to 77.5%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points [6][12]. - The company’s operating expenses increased in 2024, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios rising by 2.7, 1.5, and -0.3 percentage points respectively. In Q1 2025, these ratios further increased by 9.3, 5.5, and 3.1 percentage points, indicating higher costs due to intensified market competition [6][12]. Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand, Winona, focuses on sensitive skin solutions, enhancing customer value through a "single product + set" strategy. The second-tier brands, including Winona Baby and Aikeman, have shown strong performance in their respective markets. The company is also optimizing its online channels and has begun to enter mainstream beauty channels in Thailand [7][8]. - In 2024, the revenue from the skincare segment was 4.801 billion yuan, down 1.4%, while the makeup segment saw significant growth, achieving 551 million yuan, an increase of 226.5% [6][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is 170.67 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 40.29 yuan. The stock has a one-year high of 74.00 yuan and a low of 37.46 yuan [1][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.4, 21.2, and 18.4 respectively, indicating a reasonable valuation based on expected earnings growth [5][8]. Summary of Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.277 billion yuan in 2025, 7.023 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.962 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 672 million yuan, 803 million yuan, and 927 million yuan [8][11]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 73.8% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to improve gradually from 10.5% in 2025 to 11.5% in 2027 [8][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a 28.6% increase in non-net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025, indicating sustained upward momentum [4] - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, with a net profit of 342 million yuan, up 31.7% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 847 million yuan, a 28.0% increase, and a net profit of 135 million yuan, up 22.1% [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 456 million, 597 million, and 763 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.14, 1.49, and 1.90 yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit growth rates for 2024 are 33.4% and 31.7% respectively, with a gross margin of 73.7% [7] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows significant growth in various product categories: eye care (+60.8%), skincare (+21.6%), cleansing (+8.8%), and beauty products (+40.5%) [5] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 76.1%, reflecting a 1.4 percentage point increase [5] - The company’s operating expenses have been managed effectively, with sales expenses increasing due to enhanced brand investment [5] Product and Brand Performance - The company has seen strong performance in its key products, with the "Little Red Pen" achieving a GMV of 530 million yuan, a 146% increase, and the "Little Gold Needle" reaching 350 million yuan, up 96% [5] - The brand "Mame" and "Lianhuo" both reported revenue growth exceeding 30% and 40% respectively [5] - The company’s user engagement metrics show a 31% increase in active brand members and a 48% increase in repurchase amounts [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced significant new customer growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.2% to 760 million yuan due to the initial efficiency challenges of new factories [7][8] - The report anticipates improved gross margins in Q2 2025 as scale effects and new factory ramp-up contribute positively. Long-term prospects remain optimistic due to the expansion of new customer orders and increased market share from existing clients [7][8] Financial Summary - Q1 2025 revenue: 5.35 billion yuan (YoY +12.3%) - Q1 2025 net profit: 760 million yuan (YoY -3.2%) - Q1 2025 gross margin: 22.9% (down 5.5 percentage points) - Q1 2025 net profit margin: 14.2% (down 2.3 percentage points) [7][8] - Expected net profit for 2025-2027: 4.1 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively [7] Operational Insights - Q1 2025 sales volume: 49 million pairs (YoY +8.24%), with an average price of 109 yuan per pair (YoY +3.8%) [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of new factories to meet the rising demand from new clients such as Adidas and New Balance, with plans to open two new factories in Indonesia and Sichuan in Q1 2025 [7] - As of Q1 2025, the company employed 184,000 people, a 17% increase YoY, with expectations of a slowdown in hiring in Q2 2025 [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027: 27.66 billion, 31.68 billion, and 36.18 billion yuan respectively [9] - Expected net profit margins for 2025-2027: 14.8%, 15.0%, and 15.2% respectively [9] - P/E ratios for 2025-2027: 16.1, 13.8, and 12.0 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.736 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 503 million yuan, down 33.5% [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 949 million yuan, a decrease of 13.5%, and a net profit of 28 million yuan, down 84.0% [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in profit after adjustments, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 672 million, 803 million, and 927 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.59, 1.90, and 2.19 yuan [5] - The company is expected to maintain a reasonable valuation with a current PE of 25.4 for 2025, 21.2 for 2026, and 18.4 for 2027 [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.277 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 73.8%, consistent with previous years [8] - The net profit margin is projected to improve to 10.5% in 2025, up from 8.6% in 2024 [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise to 9.6% in 2025 from 8.0% in 2024 [8] Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand, Winona, focuses on sensitive skin solutions, with a strategy to enhance average transaction value through single products and sets [6] - In 2024, the revenue from the Winona brand was 4.909 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, while other brands like Aikeman and Jirei saw significant growth [6] - Online sales channels generated 3.912 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 10.1% increase, while offline channels saw a decline of 10.7% [6] Market Outlook - The report indicates that after adjustments, growth is expected to resume, supported by a well-established brand matrix in the sensitive skin care segment [5] - The company is also expanding its presence in international markets, having entered mainstream beauty channels in Thailand [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a 28.6% year-on-year increase in non-net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025, indicating sustained upward momentum [4] - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.97 billion yuan, a 33.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 342 million yuan, up 31.7% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 847 million yuan, a 28.0% increase, and a net profit of 135 million yuan, up 22.1% [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 456 million, 597 million, and 763 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.14, 1.49, and 1.90 yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit growth rates for 2024 are 33.4% and 31.7% respectively, with a gross margin of 73.7% [7] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows significant growth in various product categories: eye care (+60.8%), skincare (+21.6%), cleansing (+8.8%), and beauty products (+40.5%) [5] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 76.1%, reflecting a 1.4 percentage point increase [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 was 338 million yuan, with a projected increase to 534 million yuan in 2025 [9] Product and Brand Performance - The company’s flagship products, such as the "Little Red Pen" and "Little Gold Needle," have shown remarkable sales performance, with the former achieving a GMV of 530 million yuan, a 146% increase [5] - The brand's user engagement is increasing, with active membership and repurchase amounts rising by 31% and 48% year-on-year respectively [6] - The company has established a strong market presence on platforms like Douyin, with a projected GMV of 1 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The report indicates that Li Ning's Q1 performance met expectations, with low discount sales improving and strong growth in running and e-commerce segments. The company focuses on professional sports, increasing resource allocation and expanding new products to cater to niche markets and emerging sectors [6][7][9] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For the fiscal year 2023, Li Ning reported a revenue of 27,598 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 28,742 million HKD, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% [10] - The net profit for 2023 was 3,187 million HKD, showing a decline of 21.6% year-on-year. The estimated net profit for 2025 is 2,459 million HKD, indicating a further decline of 18.4% [10] - The gross margin for 2023 was 48.4%, with a projected gross margin of 49.8% for 2025. The net margin is expected to decrease from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.6% in 2025 [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 14.6, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.4 [10] Operational Insights - In Q1 2025, Li Ning's total store count was 6,088, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. The company plans to close 10-20 direct stores and open 30-40 wholesale stores throughout the year [8] - The report highlights that the running category saw over 20% growth, driven by sponsorship of events and strong performance of new running shoe products [7][9]

汽车/乘用车 长安汽车（000625.SZ） Q1 业绩有所增长，新车密集上市销量增长可期 | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 12.18 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.07/11.32 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,207.54 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,006.16 | | 总股本(亿股) | 99.14 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 82.61 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 62.89 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 长安汽车 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q4 业绩高增，以三大计划为引 领开启新车周期—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.15 《Q3 业绩有所承压，新车密集上市业 绩改善可期—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.1 《Q2 业绩同环比高增，华为赋能新车 销量增长可期—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.31 赵旭杨（分析师） 徐剑峰（联系人） zhaoxuyang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S079 ...