Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is awaiting a turning point in passenger vehicle sales, with RoboX company making steady progress [5][7] - The tools sector is seeing significant developments, including the establishment of the QuanFeng Vietnam park and exciting new products showcased at CES [6][27] Automotive Sector Summary - The Hang Seng Automotive Theme Index increased by 2.2%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index (-0.4%) and the Hang Seng Technology Index (-0.4%) [5][13] - In December 2025, the passenger vehicle market reached a new high with retail sales of 2,374.5 million units, including 1,280.9 million units of new energy vehicles, marking a 17.6% year-on-year growth [14] - January 2026 passenger vehicle sales are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, with an estimated total market retail of around 1.8 million units [15] - New vehicle launches have been relatively quiet, with the Geely Galaxy V900 being the only notable release [19][20] - RoboX plans to deploy 100,000 fully customized Robotaxis globally by 2030, enhancing commercial operations [22] Tools Sector Summary - The establishment of the QuanFeng (Vietnam) New Energy Intelligent Manufacturing Base marks a significant step in global strategic layout [39] - At CES 2026, several innovative home robot products were showcased, including the G-Rover by Stone Technology, which features a dual-wheel leg architecture [40] - Milwaukee Tools opened a flagship experience center in the UK, enhancing strategic value and user engagement [53]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates a significant structural differentiation in the market, with small and mid-cap stocks performing better than large-cap stocks, suggesting a continued spring rally [4][6] - The net outflow from broad-based ETFs is not a sign of market exit but rather a healthy adjustment, indicating that investors are reallocating towards more flexible non-broad-based ETFs [5][6] - The report highlights that the average daily trading volume is crucial for triggering style switches between small and large caps, with a historical tendency for small caps to outperform during periods of increased trading volume [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The report suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on the market, emphasizing a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, with specific recommendations for sectors such as AI hardware, military, media, and renewable energy [7] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in the PPI and the benefits of cyclical sectors in the context of anti-involution trends, recommending investments in sectors like chemicals, power, and machinery [7] Group 3: Industry Insights - SpaceX's second-generation Starlink system is expected to launch in 2027, significantly enhancing internet service capacity and creating investment opportunities in the related supply chain [16][18] - The report notes that the tea beverage sector is experiencing strong growth, with companies like Luckin Coffee expanding rapidly, indicating a robust consumer trend in the food and beverage industry [22][23] - The agricultural sector is facing supply pressures, particularly in pork prices, with current prices at 12.92 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase but potential downward pressure post-holiday [28][29] Group 4: Financial Sector Developments - The report highlights a notable increase in the issuance of equity funds, with a 56% year-on-year growth in new fund shares, indicating a positive trend for the financial IT and brokerage sectors [49][50] - It mentions that the public fund performance benchmark guidelines have been established, which will enhance the performance assessment and compensation management systems within the industry [50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that supply pressure for pigs is postponed, leading to a risk of price decline before and after the Spring Festival. The average price of live pigs in China as of January 23, 2026, is 12.92 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 2.40 CNY/kg [3][11] - The white feather chicken sector has transitioned from losses to profits, with prices slightly declining but profitability improving due to stable feed costs and weak supply elasticity [4][23] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Observations - The average weight of pigs remains high, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening barns has increased to 38%, creating a short-term support effect on prices. However, the risk of price decline exists due to potential supply release around the Spring Festival [11][12] - The demand side shows that the price of white strips has recovered to 17.15 CNY/kg, with the price difference between lean and fat pigs expanding, indicating improved slaughtering profits but weak volume performance [11][12] Market Performance - From January 19 to January 23, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.43 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the agricultural index by 0.40% [5][27] - Key stocks such as Jingji Zhino (up 29.47%), Quanyuan (up 13.57%), and Honghui Fruits and Vegetables (up 9.94%) led the gains in the agricultural sector [5][27] Key News - As of the end of 2025, the number of breeding sows in China was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, or 2.9%, which is within the normal holding capacity [33] - The Ministry of Finance announced that a guiding document to promote the high-quality development of agricultural insurance will be issued in 2026 [4][33] Price Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of live pigs is 12.97 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.19 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets is 23.54 CNY/kg, up 1.55 CNY/kg from the previous week [35] - The average price of white feather chicken is 7.50 CNY/kg, down 1.19% week-on-week, while the average price of chicken seedlings is 2.20 CNY, down 19.71% [38][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the tea beverage sector, with leading brands like Luckin Coffee and others expanding rapidly, while the supply in the tea segment is contracting [3][19] - The report notes the expansion of duty-free stores in second and third-tier cities, which is expected to boost high-end consumer spending [18] - The restaurant sector is experiencing a divergence in growth, with strong performance from tea and coffee brands, while traditional Chinese dining brands are also expanding [19][30] Summary by Sections Toy Industry - As of December 2025, the number of offline toy stores in China reached 9,689, with a net increase of 184 stores [12] - The average store efficiency for toy brands increased by 13% year-on-year in December 2025, with leading brands like Pop Mart showing a 47% increase [12][14] Duty-Free Industry - The new policy established 41 new duty-free stores in second and third-tier city airports and waterway ports, aimed at enhancing consumer spending [18] - The policy allows for participation from major operators, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry [18] Restaurant Industry - The tea beverage sector is seeing a contraction in supply, while coffee brands are accelerating their growth, with Luckin Coffee adding 7,922 stores in 2025 [19][26] - The average monthly store efficiency for the tea industry was 209,000 yuan, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, while coffee brands achieved an average of 286,000 yuan, up 2.4% [19][20] - The report emphasizes the success of the "community central kitchen" strategy by Guoquan, which has led to popular menu items selling out [3][19] Market Performance - The Hong Kong retail and consumer services sector outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with notable gains in the toy and gold categories [4] - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including tourism, education, and consumer services, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [4]

Group 1: New Companies Listed - Six new companies were listed on the New Third Board, with average revenue of 624 million and median revenue of 363 million, and average net profit of 83.84 million with median net profit of 48.64 million [4][16] - Moshang High-Tech (875070.NQ) is a leader in full-age artificial feed factory silkworm breeding technology, achieving a 100% market share in this segment in China, with a projected fresh cocoon output of 29,400 tons in 2024 [4][18] - Tianjiao Bio (875025.NQ) is a major producer of powdered oils, benefiting from the rapid growth of the new tea beverage market, with the pre-packaged coffee market expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.47% from 2021 to 2025 [5][40] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The New Third Board has sent a total of 862 companies to the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, indicating its role in supporting small and medium enterprises [3] - The total market value of listed companies on the New Third Board reached 25,181.94 billion by the end of 2025, with a decrease of 35 companies in December 2025 [6][13] - The trading volume for the week of January 19 to January 25, 2026, included 190 block trades, with significant trading amounts for companies like Sanying Precision and Yinggu Laser [6][12] Group 3: Industry Insights - The global powdered oil market is projected to reach USD 4.476 billion by 2025, driven by increasing disposable income and consumption upgrades in developing countries [37] - The financial cloud market in China is rapidly growing, with market sizes of USD 6.56 billion in 2021, USD 8.05 billion in 2022, and USD 8.82 billion in 2023, indicating a strong demand for digital transformation in financial institutions [47][50] - The industrialized silkworm breeding sector is undergoing a transformation from traditional agriculture to modern biological manufacturing, with companies like Moshang High-Tech leading the way [26][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in market trading volume and new fund issuance at the beginning of 2026, which is favorable for the fundamentals of financial IT and brokerage sectors. Brokerage firms are expected to continue rapid growth in their brokerage business, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas expansion are likely to enhance the return on equity (ROE) of leading brokerage firms. The insurance sector has also seen a strong start in both individual and bank-insurance channels, with a continued trend of deposit migration, suggesting a positive outlook for the insurance sector in the spring market [4][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 3.44 trillion, down 16% week-on-week; however, the average trading volume since the beginning of 2026 is 3.64 trillion, a 105% increase compared to Q1 2025 [4] - New stock and mixed fund issuance in January 2026 totaled 44.3 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [4] - The "Public Fund Performance Benchmark Guidelines" was officially released on January 23, 2026, establishing stricter standards for benchmark selection and changes, enhancing performance evaluation and compensation management systems [4] Insurance Sector - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable research value for ordinary life insurance products at 1.89%, slightly down from 1.90% in the previous quarter, indicating a trend towards stability [6] - The individual insurance channel is under pressure due to various factors, but the strong start in 2026 is expected to improve new policy growth, aided by favorable market conditions [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with a potential valuation recovery towards 1x PEV for leading firms [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation H, as well as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant focus on the commercial aerospace sector, particularly with SpaceX's upcoming IPO, which is expected to raise over $30 billion and achieve a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, potentially setting a record for the largest IPO in history [5][12] - The third-generation Starship is set to make its maiden flight in 2026, marking a transition from flight testing to engineering applications, with a payload capacity exceeding 100 tons to low Earth orbit (LEO) [6][13] - SpaceX plans to launch its second-generation Starlink system in 2027, aiming to provide a mobile service experience comparable to 5G, with a capacity increase of over 100 times compared to the first generation [7][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of January 19-23, 2026, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.62%, while the computer index decreased by 0.30% [4][16] Company Dynamics - Notable earnings forecasts include: - Electric Security Network expects a net profit of 50 million to 65 million yuan for 2025, a decline of 58.90% to 68.38% year-on-year [17] - Hikvision anticipates total revenue of approximately 92.52 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit increase of 18.46% year-on-year [18] Industry Dynamics - OpenAI is planning to initiate a financing round exceeding $50 billion, with a potential valuation increase to between $750 billion and $830 billion [32] - The domestic news includes TikTok's establishment of a data security joint venture in the U.S. to comply with regulatory requirements [26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant interest in the commercial aerospace sector, particularly with SpaceX's upcoming IPO, which aims to raise over $30 billion and achieve a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, potentially setting a record for the largest IPO in history [5][13] - The third-generation Starship is set to make its maiden flight in 2026, transitioning from flight testing to engineering applications, with a payload capacity exceeding 100 tons to low Earth orbit (LEO) [6][14] - SpaceX plans to launch its second-generation Starlink system in 2027, aiming to provide mobile phone services with 5G-like experiences, significantly enhancing satellite connectivity [7][15] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of January 19-23, 2026, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.62%, while the computer index decreased by 0.30% [4][17] Company Dynamics - Several companies, including Electric Security and others, have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with Electric Security expecting a net profit decline of 58.90% to 68.38% [18] - Hikvision reported a slight revenue increase of 0.02% for 2025, with a net profit growth of 18.46% [19] Industry Dynamics - OpenAI is planning to initiate a financing round exceeding $50 billion, which could elevate its valuation to between $750 billion and $830 billion [33] - The Chinese government has reported that the 5G user base has surpassed 1.2 billion, with the second phase of 6G technology trials recently commenced [30]

北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 北交所主题基金 2025 年成绩单平均 55.53%，把脉 2026 年结构性机会 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 公布 2025Q4 季报，11 家主题基金 2025 年收益率均值达 55.53% 从公募机构在北交所配置家数来看，2024 年末共计 29 家公募机构配置北交所股 票，同比增长 31.82%，2025 年末公募基金重仓北交所企业的数量分别为 41 家， 同比 2024 年末增长 41.38%。从公募机构在北交所重仓配置金额角度来看，2025 年末公募机构在北交所重仓配置金额 90.50 亿元，重仓配置占比达 0.12%。其中 2025 年单季度末公募机构在北交所重仓配置金额分别为 67.43 亿元、98.92 亿元、 103.07 亿元、90.50 亿元，重仓配置占比达 0.11%、0.17%、0.14%、0.12%。从被 动指数基金规模角度来看，2025 年北证 50 指数基金规模高增长。2022-2026 年 北证 50 指数基金规模 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The National Medical Insurance Administration is advancing the "going out" strategy for Chinese pharmaceuticals and medical devices, with a focus on building a multi-level support network for international procurement by 2026[1] - In 2025, China is expected to approve 76 innovative drugs, with over 150 transactions amounting to more than $130 billion[1] - By 2024, China's medical device exports are projected to account for 8.17% of the global market, maintaining the fourth position worldwide[1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue for medical device manufacturing companies in China is expected to reach 1.42 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%[1] - As of October 2025, the number of medical device manufacturers in China reached 33,300, an increase of 576 from the end of 2024[1] - The number of effective invention patents in the medical device sector is projected to reach 50,525 by 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.63%[1] Group 3: Export and Import Trends - From January to October 2025, the export value of IVD instruments, diagnostic equipment, and dental materials was 30.8 billion yuan, 67.4 billion yuan, and 9.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.16%, 9.43%, and 12.15%[1] - IVD reagent imports saw a year-on-year decline of 22.89%, indicating reduced reliance on imports, while high-end diagnostic equipment still shows demand[1] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The North Exchange's pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a weekly increase of 1.18%, with medical devices rising by 1.83%[2] - 85.71% of pharmaceutical and biological stocks on the North Exchange experienced price increases this week[2]