行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 ——理财登 2025 年报解读 刘呈祥（分析师） 吴文鑫（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端："存款搬家"叙事逻辑强于债市波动&股市分流 截至 2025 年末，理财规模增至 33.29 万亿元，全年增长 3.34 万亿元，yoy+11.15%。 2025 年"存款搬家"叙事贯穿，逻辑仍强于债市波动、股市分流，规模延续高 增。季节性上，2025 年理财增长总体符合季节性规律，若加回季末回表规模， 理财在 2025 年 12 月或实际达到历史高点 33.7 万亿元左右。预计 2026Q1 理财增 长较为后置，主要由于春节时间较晚（2 月中下旬），加权益市场情绪较热、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that banks are likely to continue the strategy of early loan disbursement for early returns in 2026, with Q1 new loans expected to account for 62%-65% of the annual total [3][15] - In January, new RMB loans are projected to be between 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase, with potential acceleration in loan issuance towards the end of the month [4][37] - The overall loan volume for the year is expected to be around 15.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, but with a stabilization in loan pricing [4][37] - Large banks are experiencing strong deposit growth, exceeding expectations, attributed to proactive pricing strategies and effective marketing efforts [5][38][44] - The stability of deposits is a concern, with potential uncertainties regarding the retention rates of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [6][44] Summary by Sections Loans - The loan issuance rhythm for 2026 is anticipated to be front-loaded, although the pace may be slow in early January due to various factors including lower discount rates and a cautious approach from banks [3][24] - The trend of front-loading loan issuance is expected to continue, with Q1 new loans projected to represent a significant portion of the annual total [15][17] Deposits - Large banks are expected to have a strong start in deposit growth, with liquidity remaining ample and net financing from interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) being negative, indicating a healthy deposit environment [5][40] - The competitive advantage of smaller banks in deposit acquisition is diminishing, as larger banks enhance their marketing efforts and pricing strategies [44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and wealth management-oriented joint-stock banks due to their advantages in expanding balance sheets and performance certainty [7]

zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北交所上市"后备军"217 家，分布在高端装备、TMT 等新质生产力行业中 截至 2026 年 1 月 20 日，北交所已有 217 家公司获受理，待上会企业 167 家，覆 盖高端装备（71 家）、TMT（29 家）、化工新材料（35 家）、消费（21 家）、生 物医药（13 家）等多元细分领域。受理和辅导中公司中，包含了一些新质生产 力公司，我们从中首选专精特新、单项冠军企业、"独角兽"企业。同时，我们 也着重关注氢能源、商业航天、低空经济等行业。 后备军筛选系列已 29 期，筛选出一批已经上市的新质生产力公司 北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 优中选优，布局营收超 10 亿、利润过亿的成长领军者华晟智能等 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 在 2025 年北交所上市的 26 家公司中，本系列报告我们优选出星图测控、开发科 技、天工股份、广信科技、酉立智能、志高机械、宏远股份、能之光、三协电 机、世昌股份、锦华新材、江天科技等。其余优选公司中已过会公司包括：英氏 控股、雅图高新、金钛股份、新恒泰、原力数 ...

行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 《政策支撑稳增长，关注 Q1 银行景气 度修复行情 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.16 《2026 钱往何处：理财真净值化时代 的攻守之道—2026 年理财资产配置展 望》-2026.1.8 规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金"成配置主线 ——理财登 2025 年报解读 刘呈祥（分析师） 吴文鑫（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端："存款搬家"叙事逻辑强于债市波动&股市分流 截至 2025 年末，理财规模增至 33.29 万亿元，全年增长 3.34 万亿元，yoy+11.15%。 2025 年"存款搬家"叙事贯穿，逻辑仍强于债市波动、股市分流，规 ...

交通运输/物流 建发股份（600153.SH） 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 股价走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 建发股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《营收利润同比收缩，回款比例保持 高位—公司信息更新报告》-2025.9.2 《营收规模有所收缩，增强回报保护 股 东 利 益 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.17 ——公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | |  | 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利，维持"买入"评级 | 建发股份发布 2025 年业绩预告，公司预计 2025 年度实现归母净利润为-100 亿元 到-52 亿元，预计实现扣非归母净利润为-65 亿元到-33 亿元，同比转亏。受美凯 龙业 ...

交通运输/物流 建发股份（600153.SH） 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/1/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.39 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 11.71/8.68 | | 总市值(亿元) | 272.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 272.27 | | 总股本(亿股) | 29.00 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 29.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 59.21 | 股价走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 建发股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《营收利润同比收缩，回款比例保持 高位—公司信息更新报告》-2025.9.2 《营收规模有所收缩，增强回报保护 股 东 利 益 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.17 ——公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic silane crosslinking agent and hydroxylamine salt sectors, with a unique "oxime-silane-hydroxylamine salt" green circular industry chain that showcases industry-leading technology [3][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the new energy vehicle and electronics sectors, with projected net profits of 201 million, 269 million, and 350 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.48, 1.98, and 2.58 yuan per share [3][4]. - The company has successfully developed electronic-grade hydroxylamine water solution, breaking the monopoly of foreign manufacturers and supporting the localization of semiconductor cleaning agents [5][12]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 1.239 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 211 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 22.3% respectively [4][39]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 27.7% in 2023 to 32.5% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 15.5% to 21.7% over the same period [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.48 yuan in 2025, 1.98 yuan in 2026, and 2.58 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 38.6, 28.9, and 22.2 [3][4]. Industry Outlook - The fine chemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with China's fine chemical industry output expected to exceed 11 trillion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 19.17% from 2024 to 2027 [55]. - The demand for silane crosslinking agents is anticipated to expand significantly, driven by applications in construction materials, energy, electronics, and new energy vehicles [61][66]. - The production of functional silanes in China is projected to grow from 46.90 million tons in 2024 to 59.88 million tons by 2028, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 6.30% [65][68].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the photovoltaic equipment industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is entering a silicon era in space applications, driven by the need for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in photovoltaic technology [5][18] - Photovoltaic systems are the most reliable and sustainable power source for spacecraft, providing stable energy supply without the need for fuel resupply [18] - The transition to silicon-based photovoltaic technology in space is being accelerated by the high costs and limitations of III-V multi-junction solar cells, which are currently the most efficient but expensive [64][67] Summary by Sections 1. From Parallel to Convergence: Space Enters the Silicon Era - Photovoltaics are the most important energy supply for spacecraft, providing stable energy without atmospheric interference [18] - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement are the main drivers for the evolution of photovoltaic technology [19] - P-type HJT (Heterojunction Technology) cells show significant advantages in space applications due to their superior radiation resistance [6][69] - Silicon-perovskite tandem cells are expected to become the ultimate solution, breaking the efficiency-cost-radiation resistance triangle [6][68] 2. The Space Race Begins: Photovoltaics Open New Blue Oceans - Low Earth orbit communication satellites are driving the demand for large-scale satellite deployment [7] - The space computing market is expected to release significant potential, with a focus on reliable power supply rather than cost competition [7] 3. Pre-Volume Layout: Equipment Manufacturers Seize Opportunities - Key equipment manufacturers benefiting from the space photovoltaic technology include Maiwei, Jiejia Weichuang, Laplace, and others [8] 4. Competition Among Giants: Leading Manufacturers Tap into Blue Oceans - Major battery manufacturers deeply involved in space photovoltaic technology include Dongfang Risheng, Junda, Trina Solar, and JinkoSolar [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The current price increase in passive components is driven by rising upstream metal raw material prices and increased costs related to labor and electricity, with inflation being a dominant factor [8] - Demand from emerging sectors such as AI servers, new energy vehicles, and industrial control is robust, suggesting that the current upcycle in the passive components industry may last longer than previous cycles [7][8] Summary by Sections Price Increase Situation - Major passive component manufacturers like Yageo, Panasonic, and Walsin have announced price increases for various products, with increases ranging from 5% to 30% starting from early 2026 [5] - Yageo has raised prices for multiple capacitor and resistor products by 10%-30% since the second half of 2025, citing significant increases in wafer costs [5] - Other manufacturers, including Walsin and Huazhong, have also issued price hikes due to rising costs of labor, electricity, and materials [5] Supply Side - The prices of upstream metal raw materials such as silver, palladium, ruthenium, tin, and copper continue to rise, significantly impacting production costs for passive component manufacturers [6] - The operating rates of major manufacturers have remained high since 2025, with an upward trend expected [6] Demand Side - Traditional demand from consumer electronics remains stable, while new sectors like AI servers and new energy vehicles are experiencing strong growth, indicating a potentially longer upcycle for the passive components industry [7] - For instance, each AI server is estimated to require 15,000 to 25,000 MLCCs, with the market for MLCCs in AI servers expected to grow at an annual rate of 30%, reaching 3.3 times the 2025 market size by 2030 [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Sanhua Group, Sunlord Electronics, Jianghai Co., and Farah Electronics, with beneficiaries including Walsin, Placo New Materials, Jiemai Technology, and Maijie Technology [8]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights supply pressures in the poultry industry, particularly due to overseas avian influenza affecting domestic breeding, leading to a temporary halt in the introduction of grandparent stock, which supports white feather broiler prices in the short term [3][13][19] - The demand for yellow feather broilers is under pressure due to seasonal demand decline and reduced restocking, with prices expected to rebound slightly due to pre-festival demand but remain generally weak [4][28] - Egg prices continue to decline, with high inventory levels prompting accelerated culling of hens, which may provide some support for future egg prices [36] Summary by Sections White Feather Broilers - December 2025 national average sales price for white feather broilers was 7.44 yuan/kg, up by 0.31 yuan/kg month-on-month, with a loss of 0.26 yuan per bird, an increase of 0.75 yuan [3][13] - The total stock of white feather grandparent stock at the end of December was 2.3377 million sets, up by 11.3% month-on-month, with parent stock at 36.9395 million sets, up by 0.1% [15][19] Yellow Feather Broilers - December average sales price for medium-speed yellow feather broilers was 11.77 yuan/kg, down by 3.07% month-on-month, with parent stock sales down by 10.43% [4][28] - Total stock of yellow feather grandparent stock at the end of December was 2.7411 million sets, down by 1.03% month-on-month [4][28] Egg Production - December egg price was 2.89 yuan/kg, down by 0.79% month-on-month, with egg-laying hen profit at -26.60 yuan per bird, an increase of 1.80 yuan [36] - The total stock of laying hens at the end of December was 1.295 billion, down by 0.92% month-on-month, but up by 7.11% year-on-year [36] Sales Performance - December sales volume of white feather chick seedlings was 408 million, remaining stable month-on-month, with parent stock sales up by 17.56% [15][38] - December chicken meat sales varied, with Xiantan Co. reporting a sales volume of 51,200 tons, down by 3.08% month-on-month, but revenue increased by 9.56% [51] - December sales volume of yellow feather broilers varied, with Wens Foodstuffs reporting a sales volume of 109 million birds, down by 7.06% month-on-month [56]