Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown a significant decline in sales, with a year-on-year decrease in sales area of 8.7% and sales amount down by 12.6% for the year 2025 [4][13] - The trend of "price for volume" is evident, with the average selling price of commercial housing dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [4][13] - New construction area has decreased for four consecutive years, with a decline of 20.4% in 2025 [5][20] - The total investment in real estate development has also seen a significant drop of 17.2% year-on-year [6][24] - The cash flow pressure on real estate companies remains high, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in funds available to developers [6][26] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 881 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [4][13] - The sales amount reached 8.39 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4][13] - December 2025 saw a sharp decline in sales area and amount, with year-on-year decreases of 15.6% and 23.6%, respectively [4][13] Construction Data - The new construction area for 2025 was 588 million square meters, reflecting a 20.4% decrease [5][20] - The completion area was 603 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year [5][20] Investment Data - Real estate development investment totaled 8.28 trillion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 17.2% [6][24] - The funds available to real estate developers were 9.31 trillion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year [6][26] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [7][34] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are also highlighted, such as Longfor Group and New City Holdings [7][34] - Quality property management firms with strong service standards are recommended, including China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [7][34]

Group 1 - The report highlights the potential of 218 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, covering diverse sectors such as high-end equipment, TMT, chemical new materials, consumption, and biomedicine, with a focus on specialized and innovative enterprises [14][15] - Among the 26 companies listed in 2025, notable selections include Star Map Measurement and Control, Development Technology, and Tian Gong Co., which have shown strong performance and growth potential [14][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven growth in the automotive industry, particularly in areas like hydrogen energy, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy [14] Group 2 - The report focuses on 16 selected innovative companies, including Mosentech, Huaneng Turbo, and Fuji Intelligent, which have strong technological attributes and market positions [2][3] - Mosentech, a leader in automotive intelligent opening and closing systems, is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.956 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 264.226 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.42% and 36.84% respectively [2][9] - Huaneng Turbo, a key supplier of turbochargers in the international automotive aftermarket, is expected to generate 426 million yuan in revenue and 161 million yuan in net profit in 2024, benefiting from the growth of the turbocharger market [3][9] - Fuji Intelligent, known for precision components in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, anticipates a revenue of 975 million yuan and a net profit of 81.8396 million yuan in 2024 [3][9] - Hongjing Electronics, focusing on chassis and intelligent cockpit products, is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.075 billion yuan and a net profit of 78.5702 million yuan in 2024 [3][9] - Ruixin Electric, a leader in automotive starter motors, expects a revenue of 400 million yuan and a net profit of 61.52 million yuan in 2024 [3][9] - Yuanda Health Technology, a small giant in water filtration systems, is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.005 billion yuan and a net profit of 94.2044 million yuan in 2024 [4][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. Economic recovery is accelerating, inflation is rising, and the bond market's overall leverage ratio has increased. The report also analyzes the changes in bond custody volume and the behavior of different institutions in the bond market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation - In December, the total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 302.571 billion yuan, showing a decline in the incremental increase compared to the previous month. The custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House decreased by 204.504 billion yuan, while that of CCDC increased by 507.075 billion yuan, both with a slowdown in the incremental increase [2][3]. Bond Types - Interest - bearing bonds contributed the main increment in December. The custody volume of interest - bearing bonds was 123.15 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 695.865 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.88 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 154.092 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 19.69 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 622.378 billion yuan [4]. Institutions - Commercial banks were the main purchasers of bonds. Their custody volume was 94.40 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 256.262 billion yuan. Securities, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions all had a net decrease in custody volume [5]. Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market rose to 107.14% in December. The leverage ratios of commercial banks and non - bank institutions increased, while that of securities firms decreased [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The electronic sector has shown a strong performance, with the industry index rising by 3.64% in the week of January 12-16, 2026. The semiconductor segment led the gains with a 5.12% increase, while other electronic components rose by 4.06%, consumer electronics by 1.99%, and optical electronics by 1.13% [4] - TSMC's optimistic guidance and significant capital expenditure of $52-56 billion for 2026 reflect the long-term demand driven by AI [6] - AI hardware demand is accelerating, with over 50 AI eyewear companies showcased at CES 2026, and OpenAI seeking support for its audio device project with a target shipment of 40-50 million units in the first year [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic sector experienced broad gains, particularly in semiconductors, which rose by 5.12%. Notable individual stock performances included AMD, which surged by 14.1%, and TSMC, which increased by 5.80% due to positive capital expenditure guidance [4] Industry Dispatch - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance indicates a robust investment in AI hardware, with significant demand for AI eyewear and audio devices. Meta plans to launch multiple AI eyewear models, while Apple is set to release new products featuring advanced technology [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - DRAM prices are on the rise, with certain DDR4 models increasing by over 12% weekly. AI demand is now estimated to account for 50-60% of the DRAM market. Major companies like SK Hynix and Micron are expanding production to meet this demand [6] Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks include SMIC, Huahong, Tongfu Microelectronics, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including raw materials like fluorite, refrigerants, and high-end fluorinated materials [24] - Recent price trends indicate a wide increase in the prices of refrigerants R404 and R507, driven by strong demand in overseas markets and limited supply due to quota restrictions [22][23] - Companies such as Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology are recommended as key investment targets due to their strong market positions and growth prospects [10][24] Summary by Sections Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 7.76% recently, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.88% [6] - The fluorochemical index closed at 5206.63 points, down 0.25%, but still outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [6][36] Fluorite Market - The average market price for fluorite 97 wet powder is 3,309 CNY/ton, stable compared to the previous week but down 9.65% year-on-year [7][18] - The average price for fluorite in 2026 is projected to be 3,309 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.95% from 2025 [18] Refrigerant Market - As of January 16, 2026, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, R404 at 49,000 CNY/ton (up 6.52%), and R507 at 49,000 CNY/ton (up 6.52%) [8][20] - The external trade prices for R404 and R507 have increased to approximately 35,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 12.90% [21][22] Company Performance - Sanmei Co. and Yonghe Co. have projected significant profit increases for 2025, with expected net profits of 19.9 to 24.5 billion CNY (up 155.66% to 176.11%) and 5.3 to 6.3 billion CNY (up 110.87% to 150.66%), respectively [10][9] - Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology are highlighted as key beneficiaries in the current market environment [10][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The defense and military industry is currently experiencing a significant increase in demand, driven by geopolitical tensions and advancements in commercial aerospace technology [6][7] - The military index has shown strong performance, with an 8.04% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.84 percentage points [5][14] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the military sector is 85.05 times, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [24] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military index has ranked 6th among 31 industries over the past two weeks, with aerospace equipment showing the best performance, increasing by 12.28% [15][19] - Year-to-date, the military index has risen by 45.10%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 20.25% [16] Valuation - The military sector's current PE-TTM of 85.05 is at the 79.43 percentile since early 2015, reflecting a rise from 78.44 two weeks prior [24][25] - The sector is expected to see a recovery in fundamentals as the "14th Five-Year Plan" becomes clearer, suggesting high allocation value for the military sector [24] News Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly regarding Greenland and the Middle East, which may further drive demand for military products [6][26][28] - Significant advancements in commercial aerospace, including successful satellite launches and developments in reusable rocket technology, are expected to enhance the industry's growth prospects [7][31][32] Notable Stocks - Key beneficiaries in the military sector include companies involved in aerospace, satellite payloads, and materials manufacturing, such as Aerospace Power, Guolian Aviation, and China Satellite [9]

Group 1: Innovation Layer Implementation - The National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ) plans to implement six rounds of innovation layer upgrades in 2026, starting on January 30, February 27, March 31, April 30, May 29, and August 31 [3][12][14] - In 2025, a total of 281 companies successfully upgraded to the innovation layer, with an average revenue of 572 million yuan and an average net profit of 58.32 million yuan for 2024 [15][19] Group 2: Newly Listed Companies - Eight new companies were listed from January 12 to January 18, 2026, with an average revenue of 527 million yuan and an average net profit of 56.52 million yuan [19][20] - Tian Da Co., Ltd. focuses on special intermediate alloys and superconducting materials, achieving breakthroughs in production technology [22][24] - Youyun Technology provides internet data center services and has established partnerships with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba [37][38] - Qingshi Biological ranks second in the domestic research service market for gene synthesis and Sanger sequencing [44][47] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market saw 219 block trades this week, with significant transactions from companies like Minshan Environmental and Weihan Machinery [5][19] - Debang Lighting plans to acquire New Third Board company Jiali Co., Ltd., which will result in holding 67.48% of the total shares post-transaction [5][19] - The total market capitalization of listed companies on the New Third Board reached 25,181.94 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [5][19]

Macro Economic Insights - The government is intensifying efforts to clear overdue corporate payments and wages, focusing on key regions and implementing special bonds to support this initiative [6][7] - The central bank has introduced a series of monetary policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in relending and rediscount rates, and plans to maintain a loose monetary stance throughout 2026 [7][17] - The real estate policy includes extending tax incentives for residential property transactions and lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property loans to 30% [7] Industry Insights Computer Industry - Alibaba is fully integrating its Qianwen App into its ecosystem, enhancing its capabilities as an AI shopping assistant and potentially becoming a major entry point for AI services [50] - The launch of "Ant Health Assistant" and "Lingguang," a multimodal AI assistant, indicates Alibaba's strong positioning in the AI sector, with significant user engagement [51][52] - Investment opportunities in AI applications are highlighted, with recommendations for companies benefiting from this trend [53] Machinery Industry - The use of polyurethane TPU materials in humanoid robots is emphasized, showcasing their advantages in safety and shock absorption, which are critical for the mass production of robots [55][56] - The TPU market is expected to grow significantly due to its application in humanoid robots, with a projected market space exceeding 3 billion yuan as production scales up [58] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The regulatory environment for derivatives is becoming more transparent, which may benefit leading brokerage firms as restrictions on scale are expected to ease [6] - The financial sector is experiencing a "slow bull" phase, with positive performance in brokerage and insurance businesses [6] Chemical Industry - The polyester filament industry is entering a new round of production cuts, while the supply-demand dynamics for glyphosate are improving, leading to price increases [6] Automotive Industry - China's heavy truck sales are projected to reach 1.145 million units by 2025, indicating a robust market outlook [6] Food and Beverage Industry - Moutai is deepening market reforms, and the value of Bai Run shares is becoming more apparent, suggesting potential investment opportunities [6] Pharmaceutical Industry - The focus remains on innovative drug sectors, with continued recommendations for investment in this area [6] Trade and Export - China's exports have shown unexpected growth, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in December, driven by high-tech products and diversified markets [41][42][45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that coal prices are returning to reasonable levels, reinforcing the logic of stable coal prices. The price of thermal coal has slightly decreased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 695 CNY/ton as of January 17, down 4 CNY/ton from the previous period. The report anticipates a gradual recovery to a reasonable price of 750 CNY/ton, with narrow fluctuations expected [3][4] - The long-term investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand. Supply constraints are a continuation of the strict production checks initiated in July, while demand is rising due to the heating season and increased industrial production [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 CNY/ton for 2025. The upper limit for coal prices is predicted to be between 800-860 CNY/ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. With both thermal and coking coal prices at historical lows, there is significant room for rebound. The report identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index fell by 3.11% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.12, and the PB ratio is 1.33, both ranking among the lowest in the A-share market [10][25][29]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The luxury goods retail revenue in China is showing signs of recovery, with high-end brands like LVMH, Hermès, and Prada experiencing positive growth since Q2 2025 [15][16] - The global network literature market is witnessing rapid growth, particularly in Latin America, with WebNovel reaching nearly 400 million cumulative users by October 2025 [34][35] - The micro-drama and comic-drama market in China is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025, significantly surpassing the film box office revenue [37][38] - The probiotic market is expanding, with a focus on next-generation probiotics (NGPs) like AKK bacteria, which show significant potential in health applications [55][63] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free Shopping - Post-New Year duty-free shopping in Hainan shows strong growth, with sales reaching 3.89 billion yuan and a 49.6% year-on-year increase in shopping amount [31][33] - The high net worth individuals are expected to drive luxury consumption, with a notable increase in spending on preservation-type luxury goods [15][16] 2. Network Literature - The Chinese network literature market reached 49.55 billion yuan in 2024, with a 29.37% year-on-year growth, while the overseas market grew by 10.68% [34] - WebNovel has cultivated nearly 530,000 authors and over 820,000 original works, with a significant increase in user engagement [34][35] 3. Micro-Drama - The micro-drama and comic-drama market in China is expected to reach 100 billion yuan in 2025, with a 98% year-on-year growth [37][38] - The user base for micro-dramas is approaching 700 million, with a strong preference among female viewers [40][42] 4. Probiotics - The global probiotic market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.7%, reaching 93.49 billion USD by 2028, with China's market expected to reach 134.89 billion yuan by 2024 [55][63] - Next-generation probiotics like AKK bacteria are gaining traction, with significant potential in health management and consumer interest [55][63]