计算机 2025 年 04 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） | 陈宝健（分析师） | 李海强（分析师） | | --- | --- | | chenbaojian@kysec.cn | lihaiqiang@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520080001 | 证书编号：S0790524070003 | 市场回顾： 本周（2025.4.21-2025.4.25），沪深 300 指数上涨 0.38%，计算机指数上涨 0.99%。 周观点：积极把握 AI Agent 投资机遇 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -38% -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 《把握 MCP 的投资机遇—行业周报》 -2025.4.20 《巨头积极拥抱，MCP 生态日益繁荣 —行业点评报告》-2025.4.18 《周观点：自主可控大势已至—行业 周报》-2025.4.13 积极把握 AI Agent 投资机遇 ——行业周报 中美科技巨头密集布局 MCP 协议，有望加速 AI Agent 场景落地 MCP 由 Anthropic 提出并 ...

2025 年 04 月 27 日 特朗普 2.0 的实质，和政治局会议后的市场应对 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 中美波动不一致的背后：两国的核心目的不相同 当前中国区域的市场波动性有所下降，然而美国市场的波动性仍然较高，造成这个 区别的核心原因是什么？我们认为在于中美两国的政策背后的核心目的不相同。本 文当中，我们将详细分析特朗普 2.0 的实质，并结合 4.25 政治局会议，展望未来中 国资产的配置思路。 理解特朗普 2.0 的实质：资本侵蚀下，经济产出外流 1、被忽视的美国金融账户风险。大家都认为贸易赤字和制造业回流是特朗普开启关 税的核心目的，但在我们的研究下，更深层次的原因是资本侵蚀、及其驱动的美国 经济产出的对外流失。鉴于市场对关税和特朗普行为的过度聚焦，市场可能低估了 该问题的严重性和美国可能采取的行动，以及美元资产潜在的折价和违约风险。 2、美国版资本侵蚀对美国的影响有多大？2024 年底，美国对外净负债约 26.2 万亿 美元，占名义 GDP 89.8%。以回报率 5%计，相当于美国经济总产出中 ...

事 件 点 评 2025 年 04 月 27 日 政策未超预期，经济或超预期 固定收益研究团队 ——事件点评 开 源 证 券 证 券 相关研究报告 《从上交所 3 号指引修订看城投债信 用分化—事件点评》-2025.4.10 《复盘 2016 年 10 月——债市再次处 于交易窗口期—固收专题》-2025.4.10 《关税冲击——再现 2020 年 3 月全球 疫情冲击—固收专题》-2025.4.8 陈曦（分析师） 刘伟（分析师） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 liuwei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070008 2025 年 4 月 25 日，中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 政策符合预期下，经济有望继续回升 我们认为，经济回升的关键不是"政策超预期"。 比如，2024 年四季度-2025 年一季度，2024 年 9 月 26 日之后市场期待特别国债、 消费补贴、化债规模等增量政策加码，但实际上，2024 年并未增发特别国债、 化债方式为"偿还存量"，超预期政策并未出现，但 2024 年四季度-2025 年一季 度，经济持续 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][14] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.36 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.2% to 181 million yuan [6][9] - The decline in profit is attributed to significant advertising expenses for promoting its own brand and ongoing price competition in the industry, leading to a decrease in product gross margins [6][7] - The company expects a gradual recovery in domestic sales due to favorable consumption policies in 2025, as it is a leading OEM in the bathroom industry [7][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product shows: water tanks and accessories at 638 million yuan (+2.93%), smart toilets and covers at 1.435 billion yuan (+13.37%), and same-layer drainage systems at 181 million yuan (-13.54%) [7] - The gross margin for smart toilets and covers was 26.62%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s overall gross margin for 2024 was 27.3%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 7.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [7][9] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 209 million yuan, 234 million yuan, and 268 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50, 0.56, and 0.64 yuan [6][9] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 13.3, 11.9, and 10.3 for 2025-2027 [6][9] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading OEM in the bathroom sector, with both domestic and international sales showing steady growth [7][9] - The company’s overseas revenue in 2024 was 672 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.50% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to intensified industry competition, declining product prices, and reduced gross margins, alongside continued high R&D investment. However, the company has a strong pipeline of new products that are expected to contribute positively to future growth [4][5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.255 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.45% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 109 million yuan, down 61.58% year-on-year. The decline in net profit is attributed to increased competition in the industry [4][7] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 352 million yuan, an increase of 1.06% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 76 million yuan, a decrease of 27.57% year-on-year [4] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards and introduced a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 251 million yuan, 348 million yuan, and 448 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][7] Market Position and Product Pipeline - The company maintains a solid market share for its major products, with a 23% market share for its pig circovirus vaccine and a 40% market share for its brucellosis vaccine. Several major products are expected to be launched in 2024, contributing to revenue growth in 2025 [5][6] - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 179 million yuan invested in 2024, representing 14.25% of its revenue. It has obtained production licenses for several important vaccines and is progressing with the development of a novel mRNA vaccine for cats [6] Financial Metrics and Valuation - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 53.86%, and the net margin was 8.30%, reflecting a decline of 5.33 percentage points and 9.04 percentage points respectively. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 54.53% and the net margin was 21.96% [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.22 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.40 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.4, 22.6, and 17.5 [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to intensified industry competition, declining product prices, and reduced gross margins, alongside continued high R&D investment. However, the company has a strong pipeline of new products that are expected to contribute positively to future growth [4][5] - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 1.255 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.45% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 109 million yuan, down 61.58% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue is 352 million yuan, an increase of 1.06%, while net profit is 76 million yuan, a decrease of 27.57% [4][5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 251 million, 348 million, and 448 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are 53.86% and 8.30%, respectively, showing declines of 5.33 percentage points and 9.04 percentage points. For Q1 2025, the gross margin is 54.53% and the net margin is 21.96% [5] - The company maintains a solid market share in key products, with a 23% market share in pig circovirus vaccines and a 40% market share in brucellosis vaccines. Several major products are expected to be launched in 2024, contributing to revenue growth in 2025 [5][6] R&D and Innovation - In 2024, the company invested 179 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 14.25% of its revenue. The company has secured production licenses for several important vaccines and is progressing with the development of the world's first mRNA vaccine for feline infectious peritonitis [6] - The company emphasizes continuous innovation and has a robust pipeline of new products, indicating strong long-term growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.36 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.2% to 181 million yuan [6] - The decline in profit is attributed to significant advertising expenses for promoting its own brand and ongoing price competition in the industry, leading to a decrease in product gross margins [6] - The company expects a gradual recovery in domestic sales due to favorable consumption policies in 2025, as it is a leading OEM in the bathroom industry [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from smart toilets and covers was 1.435 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.37% [7] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 27.3%, down by 2.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 7.6%, down by 2.2 percentage points [8] - For 2025, the company forecasts net profits of 209 million yuan, 234 million yuan in 2026, and 268 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.50, 0.56, and 0.64 yuan [6][9] Market Position - The company has seen steady growth in both domestic and international sales, with domestic revenue reaching 1.686 billion yuan in 2024, up 2.26% year-on-year, and international revenue at 672 million yuan, up 25.50% [7] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing development of its own brand and the expansion of overseas channels, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The European heat pump market is expected to continue its recovery, while automotive thermal management is emerging as a new growth point for the company [1][5] - The company reported a decline in overall performance in 2024, with a revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, down 16.02% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168 million yuan, down 22.24% year-on-year, primarily due to a cooling heat pump market [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 351 million yuan, up 19.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, up 22.53% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [4][5] Business Segments Summary 1. **HVAC/R Sector** - Revenue in 2024 was 817 million yuan, down 31.78% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.18%, down 3.19 percentage points [5] - The decline was attributed to the inventory destocking cycle in the European heat pump industry, but the long-term development logic remains unchanged [5] - New growth points include precision air conditioning, medical cold chain, and logistics cold chain applications [5] 2. **New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management** - Revenue in 2024 was 453 million yuan, up 47.23% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.04%, up 3.61 percentage points [5] - The company is expanding from cabin and battery thermal management to intelligent control of electric motors, enhancing its product line [5] 3. **Servo Drive and Control Systems** - Revenue in 2024 was 27 million yuan, down 31.77% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to invest in technology development and brand building in niche application industries and robotics [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 to be 270 million yuan and 389 million yuan, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2027 at 545 million yuan [4][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.86 yuan, 4.12 yuan, and 5.78 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][7] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26.7, 18.5, and 13.2 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The European heat pump market is expected to continue its recovery, while automotive thermal management is emerging as a new growth point for the company [1][5] - The company reported a decline in overall performance in 2024, with a revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, down 16.02% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168 million yuan, down 22.24% year-on-year, primarily due to a cooling heat pump market [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 351 million yuan, up 19.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, up 22.53% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [4][5] Summary by Sections Business Segments - **HVAC/R Segment**: In 2024, revenue was 817 million yuan, down 31.78% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.18%, down 3.19 percentage points. The decline was attributed to the heat pump industry's destocking cycle, but the long-term growth logic remains unchanged [5] - **New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management**: Revenue reached 453 million yuan in 2024, up 47.23% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.04%, up 3.61 percentage points. The company is expanding from cabin and battery thermal management to intelligent control of electric motors [5] - **Servo Drive and Control Systems**: Revenue was 27 million yuan in 2024, down 31.77%. The company continues to invest in technology development and brand building in niche applications and robotics markets [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.15 billion yuan, 2.98 billion yuan, and 3.87 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.7%, 38.6%, and 29.8% [7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 270 million yuan, 389 million yuan, and 545 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.4%, 44.0%, and 40.2% [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.86 yuan, 4.12 yuan, and 5.78 yuan, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The low-altitude economy is experiencing significant support from both central and local government policies, with a focus on funding and scene development to accelerate commercialization [3][19] - The recent issuance of 200 billion yuan in special bonds for equipment updates is expected to benefit low-altitude equipment, including consumer drones and eVTOLs [24] - The low-altitude economy is transitioning from conceptualization to commercialization, with various companies showcasing eVTOL products at the Shanghai Auto Show [19][31] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Sector Review - The average change in A-share related to the low-altitude economy from April 21 to April 25 was +3.6%, driven by improved risk appetite due to easing tariff expectations [4][11] - Top gainers included Xincheng Technology (+37.2%), Wanfu Ovi (+14.7%), and Guangyang Co. (+13.1%) [11][13] 2. Industry Dynamics - Meituan's self-developed drone received the first nationwide low-altitude logistics operation certificate [22] - The establishment of the Guangzhou Low-altitude Economy Development Company with a registered capital of 300 million yuan aims to support the industry [25] - The first low-altitude economic fund in Sichuan province has been registered, focusing on eVTOL manufacturing [34] 3. Individual Company Updates - Xincheng Technology is developing a low-altitude comprehensive management service platform [36] - Xinnengda has partnered with Aerospace Feipeng to enhance drone performance with high-performance batteries [37] - Jinfeng Co. is collaborating with Tsinghua University to develop a ducted fan propulsion system for flying cars and industrial drones [38] - Yinheng has delivered a prototype electric propulsion system for EHang's new model [41] - Jifeng Technology's controlling shareholder has changed to the actual controller of Shenzhen United Aircraft Technology Co., which specializes in drone development [43]