非银金融 2026 年 01 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《衍生品监管透明化，规模限制有望 放松利好头部券商—衍生品监管政策 点评》-2026.1.18 《海南全岛封关运作，跨境资管空间 广阔—行业深度报告》-2026.1.15 《两融杠杆上限调降对券商影响有 限，看好板块行情—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.14 逆周期调节呵护"慢牛"，券商和保险业务开门红 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | 张恩琦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | zhangenqi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | 证书编号：S0790125080012 | |  | 周观点：逆周期调节呵护"慢牛"，券商和保险业务开门红 | | 1 月 15 日证监会召开系统工作会议 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Qian Dama through its "community small store + daily clearance mechanism + warehouse and cold chain" model, which enhances supply stability and operational efficiency [3][24][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and identifies high-quality companies in high-growth sectors, recommending specific companies across various segments [6][37] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail and social service indices reported a decline of 1.47% and an increase of 1.53% respectively during the week of January 12-16, 2026 [5][13] - The internet e-commerce sector showed the highest growth, with a year-to-date increase of 11.18% [16][19] Company Highlights - Qian Dama has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on fresh food retail in the South China market, with a GMV of 9.8 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outperforming its competitors [24][25] - The company operates 2,983 stores, with 2,898 being franchise stores, contributing over 90% of its revenue [25][31] - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning, including: - Chaohongji, expected to achieve a net profit of 436-533 million yuan in 2025, driven by brand upgrades and channel expansion [39][43] - Meilitiantian Medical Health, projected to see a revenue increase of 28.2% in FY2025H1 [39] - Zhou Dafu, focusing on product structure optimization and store upgrades [39] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending Chaohongji and Laopu Gold [6][37] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][37] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that meet emotional value and safety innovation, recommending Maogeping and Pola [6][37] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][37]

Group 1 - The domestic production of wet electronic chemicals is accelerating, with semiconductor cleaning agents leading the breakthrough [3][14][26] - Wet electronic chemicals, also known as ultra-pure reagents, are critical materials used in the wet processing of microelectronics and optoelectronics, with high purity and cleanliness requirements [14][19] - The market size of wet electronic chemicals in China reached 22.5 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 27.12%, and is expected to grow to 29.275 billion yuan by 2025 [3][31] Group 2 - Jin Hua New Materials has successfully developed electronic-grade hydroxylamine aqueous solution products, which are comparable in quality to BASF's products and have been validated by several chip manufacturers [4][32] - Wuxi Jinghai's amino acid products are suitable for microelectronic cleaning, particularly in environmentally friendly and precision cleaning scenarios, with plans to expand their application in the microelectronics field [4][36] Group 3 - The North Exchange chemical new materials sector saw an increase of 1.03% this week, with textile manufacturing and battery materials leading the gains [5][42][46] - The chemical products price trends indicate fluctuations in various categories, with notable changes in MDI and TDI prices [49][50] Group 4 - Zhongyu Technology signed a procurement contract for steel-lined wear-resistant pipes worth approximately 48.81 million yuan, marking market recognition of its products [6][77] - The company has established a long-term strategic plan to enhance its operational performance without creating dependency on any single client [6][77]

Group 1 - The financing balance of the North Exchange is approximately one-third of that of the ChiNext, indicating lower investor sentiment and market activity [1][11] - The North Exchange's financing balance reached a historical high of 92.85 billion yuan as of January 14, 2026, with a financing balance of 92.84 billion yuan [11][12] - The North Exchange's financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization was 1.25% in 2025, significantly lower than the ChiNext (3.57%) and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (2.97%) [15][18] Group 2 - The North Exchange 50 Index reported 1,548.33 points, with a P/E ratio of 64.92X, while the North Exchange specialized and new index reached 2,666.88 points with a P/E ratio of 83.81X [2][32] - The average P/E ratios for key sectors in the North Exchange are as follows: high-end equipment (42.38X), information technology (96.48X), new chemical materials (47.82X), consumer services (49.03X), and biomedicine (37.32X) [39][44] - The North Exchange has seen a significant increase in daily trading volume, with an average of 409.81 billion yuan, up 55.52% from the previous week [31][33] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on high-performing stocks within the North Exchange 50 and technology growth companies, particularly those with strong new production capabilities and scarcity attributes [46] - Recent IPOs have shown strong performance, with the first new stock of 2026, Kema Materials, experiencing a first-day increase of 371.27% [2][24] - The report highlights the active trading of North Exchange 50 constituent stocks, which generally show higher activity levels in financing and margin trading compared to non-constituent stocks [19][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by regulatory improvements and the potential for growth in derivative markets [5][6][7] - The report emphasizes the benefits of enhanced transparency in derivative regulations, which is expected to support the long-term development of derivative businesses for leading brokerage firms [5][6] - The demand for derivative products is strong, and regulatory adjustments may lead to relaxed scale limitations, benefiting top-tier brokerages [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial sector is projected to outperform the overall market, with a focus on the growth of brokerage firms and their capabilities in wealth management and investment banking [7] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is enhancing the regulatory framework for derivative markets, which includes clearer guidelines for contract development and trading rules [5] - The policy aims to support the stable development of the derivative market, encouraging risk management activities and limiting excessive speculation [5] Market Dynamics - The concentration of derivative business among top-tier brokerages is significant, with the top five firms holding a large market share in revenue swap and OTC options [6] - The report suggests that derivatives can help stabilize market fluctuations, contributing positively to capital market performance [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brokerage firms with strong international business and undervalued stocks, such as Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [7] - It also highlights firms with advantages in wealth management and retail, particularly those benefiting from cross-border asset management initiatives in Hainan [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI and high-end packaging technologies. TSMC has raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, a substantial increase of up to 36.9% from 2025, with a focus on advanced packaging and testing [3][4] - Major companies are actively expanding capacity to meet the rising demand for advanced packaging, with investments in new facilities and technologies across various sectors, including automotive and AI [4] - Price increases in packaging services are anticipated due to strong structural demand and rising raw material costs, with some companies already implementing price hikes of up to 30% [5] Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure and Growth - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, with advanced packaging investments expected to contribute over 10% of revenue by 2026 [3] - The revenue contribution from advanced packaging is expected to grow from approximately 8% in 2025 to slightly above 10% in 2026, indicating a higher growth rate than the overall company growth [3] Capacity Expansion - Major players like Changdian Technology and Jinglong Technology are investing heavily in new facilities to enhance their testing capabilities for high-end semiconductors, with investments reaching billions [4] - Companies such as Tongfu Microelectronics and Nexperia are also planning significant investments to boost their packaging capacities, indicating a trend of expansion in response to market demand [4] Price Trends in Packaging - The packaging industry is experiencing price increases driven by high demand for AI and memory chips, with companies like ASE and others in Taiwan raising prices by 5-20% and up to 30% respectively [5] - The increase in raw material costs, including metals like gold and copper, is contributing to the overall rise in packaging costs, which may lead to improved profitability for packaging companies [5] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on domestic companies actively engaged in high-end advanced packaging, such as Changdian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics, as well as those benefiting from the sector's growth like Yongxi Electronics and Huada Technology [6]

Group 1 - The trend of self-built power plants in the AIDC sector in the US is emerging, with major AI labs like OpenAI and Google opting to bypass public grids and establish gas power plants within data center parks [4][20][23] - The total market capitalization of 14 electric equipment-related companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange reached 44.517 billion yuan as of January 16, 2026, highlighting investment opportunities in companies like Guangxin Technology and Minshida [4][24] - Guangxin Technology specializes in insulation fiber materials and is one of the few companies capable of producing insulation materials for ultra/high voltage applications above 750kV, while Minshida is the first domestic manufacturer of aramid paper, holding a significant global market share [4][25][30] Group 2 - The information technology sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange saw an average weekly increase of 4.16%, with notable performance in high-end equipment and chemical new materials [5][35] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the information technology sector rose to 84.0X, indicating strong investor interest and valuation growth [5][39] - The semiconductor manufacturing sector experienced a significant weekly increase of 10.01%, reflecting robust demand and market dynamics [42] Group 3 - The median P/E ratio for the 159 companies in the new technology sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased from 43.6X to 44.3X, indicating a positive market sentiment [6][55] - The total market capitalization of these companies rose from 533.325 billion yuan to 546.417 billion yuan, demonstrating overall growth in the sector [6][56] - Companies like Yinen Power and Liujin Technology reported substantial weekly gains of 33.47% and 33.20%, respectively, showcasing strong performance within the sector [60] Group 4 - Guangxin Technology announced a change in the use of raised funds to support the construction of a new industrial park for ultra/high voltage electrical insulation materials, reflecting strategic adjustments to meet market demands [26][73] - Minshida reported a revenue increase of 21.77% and a net profit growth of 28.88% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising demand in the electrical insulation sector [31][33] - The electric equipment sector's performance is closely tied to the growing needs of AI data centers, which require advanced power solutions to support increasing computational demands [4][30][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance from TSMC and Google, emphasizing the importance of the silicon photonics chain and Google chain [14][17] - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is significantly increased, indicating robust growth signals in AI [5][15] - Apple's partnership with Google to utilize the Gemini model for AI applications, particularly in Siri, is noted as a positive development for Google's AI capabilities [17] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.7 billion, slightly above expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.9% [5][14] - TSMC's 2025 annual revenue was $122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, outperforming the foundry industry growth of 16% [5][14] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in silicon photonics and liquid cooling due to the AI-driven demand [16] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of November 2025, China's 5G base stations totaled 4.83 million, with a net increase of 579,000 from the end of 2024 [28] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.193 billion, a year-on-year growth of 19.06% [28] - 5G mobile phone shipments in November 2025 were 27.614 million units, accounting for 91.6% of total shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 1.08% [28] 3. Operator Performance - China Mobile's cloud revenue for the first half of 2025 was 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [47] - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud revenue for the same period was 57.3 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase [47] - The ARPU values for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom remained relatively stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [47][52][56] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main AI investment themes: "Optical, Liquid Cooling, and Domestic Computing Power" [18] - Specific recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Yingwei Ke [16][18] - The report also highlights potential beneficiaries in various sectors, including AI applications, operators, and satellite internet [18][19][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply-demand mismatch leads to a situation where prices are strong but volumes are weak, with seasonal support and tight supply of large pigs supporting the price center for pigs. The average price of live pigs in China as of January 16, 2026, is 12.77 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.19 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.01% [3][13] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand for pet products, with sales likely to improve marginally in January due to the delayed timing of the New Year shopping festival [4][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The seasonal support combined with tight supply of large pigs is expected to stabilize pig prices. The average price of white strips has recovered to 16.65 CNY/kg, and the price difference for white strips has increased to approximately 3.96 CNY/kg, indicating improved seasonal consumption support [3][13][14] Market Performance (January 12-16) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.82 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 3.27% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%. The animal health sector led the gains [6][26] Key News (January 12-16) - U.S. corn futures experienced the largest decline since 2024 due to an unexpected increase in U.S. production forecasts by the USDA. Additionally, the introduction of grandparent white feather chickens has been completely halted due to avian influenza, with no timeline for resumption [5][32] Price Tracking (January 12-16) - The average price of live pigs was 12.78 CNY/kg, up 1.19% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 21.99 CNY/kg, up 7.85% week-on-week. The average price of white strips was 17.00 CNY/kg, also up 0.15% [7][34] Major Meat Import Volumes - In November 2025, pork imports totaled 60,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%. Chicken imports were 6,400 tons, down 83.7% year-on-year [53][55] Feed Production - In November 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 28.73 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% [56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the recent cancellation and reduction of export tax rebates on pesticides, particularly focusing on the potential for price increases and improved profitability for leading companies in the pesticide sector [5] - The report anticipates a reversal in the pesticide industry's performance due to rising export costs and the upcoming spring farming season, which is expected to boost demand and prices [5] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the pesticide industry is expected to optimize supply and reshape value, encouraging companies to shift from low-end manufacturing to a focus on technology, branding, and service [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The pesticide industry is experiencing a significant shift due to policy changes, with the cancellation of export tax rebates for various pesticide raw materials and intermediates, including glyphosate and other high-toxicity products [4][5] - China is projected to export 2.05 million tons of pesticides in 2024, with exports accounting for 90% of production [5] Market Dynamics - The domestic pesticide production peak season occurs from February to May, with a significant increase in demand for pesticide formulations during this period [5] - The report notes that the price of 95% glyphosate raw powder has recently increased to 46,000 yuan per ton, indicating a recovery in pricing [11] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading pesticide companies such as Yangnong Chemical, Limin Co., and Xingfa Group, which are expected to benefit from the price increases and the integrated "raw material-formulation" model [5] - Beneficiary stocks also include Jiangshan Chemical, Lier Chemical, and others involved in various segments of the pesticide supply chain [5]