韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 事件：中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和工作。 策略视角，我们认为本次政治局会议有 5 大重点表述需要关注 1、"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"。自去年 9.26 以来，政治局会议当中时常 出现新表述，而这句话也是新表述。基于"外部冲击影响加大"的经济形势判断， 接下来将会有更多的政策储备适时推出；但从本次会议"备足预案"和"既定政 策早出台早见效"的表述来看，当前政策的核心主旨是尽快推出已有的既定政策， 新的储备政策的具体推出时点或仍需等待更细致的外部冲击落地等要素满足。同 理，去年 12 月开始提出的"适时降准降息"也是储备政策当中的一部分。 投资策略点评 2025 年 04 月 25 日 策略研究团队 抓牢"底线思维"下的确定性 ——4.25 政治局会议学习 2、"兜牢基层'三保'底线"、"要提高中低收入群体收入"、"要着力保民生。 对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例。健全分层分类的 社会救助体系"。刺激消费的核心在于催化资产负债表修复和对冲关税带来的冲 击，而 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 04 月 25 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《破解利润调节器，从拨备论证大行 盈利确定性价值—行业深度报告》 -2025.4.19 《大行资金融出恢复，非银转向一般 性存款—3 月央行信贷收支表要点解 读》-2025.4.15 《信贷超季节性恢复，"以价换量"或 告一段落—行业点评报告》-2025.4.13 春潮涌动，韧性彰显 ——理财 2025Q1 季报解读 liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 刘呈祥（分析师） 吴文鑫（分析师） wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端：Q1 季末回表+债市回调，影响理财规模读数 关注后续估值整改对理财风险偏好的影响。交易商协会"估值指引"并非仅针对 理财，避免过度解读。但信托收盘价估值年内仍有存量整改的可能性（测算理财 收盘价估值的债券约 6400 亿元）。其落地将使得理财安全垫进一步减少，或使得 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][15] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth, with Q1 2025 revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.430 billion yuan, up 121.97% year-on-year [7][10] - The core product, Fumetnib, has seen robust sales growth, with 2024 sales reaching 3.506 billion yuan, a 77.27% increase year-on-year. Multiple new indications are in the registration clinical phase, which is expected to sustain future growth [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 410 million yuan, up 34.13% year-on-year and 11.88% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and added a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 1.843 billion yuan, 2.152 billion yuan, and 2.389 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Product Development and Pipeline - Fumetnib's clinical trials for new indications are progressing well, with approvals for several trials expected to enhance the product's market potential. The NDA for a new indication is anticipated to be submitted in 2025, with approval expected in early 2026 [8][9] - The company is also advancing multiple new products, including Goleirese for KRAS G12C mutation in non-small cell lung cancer, which is expected to receive approval soon [9]

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 百洋医药 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 医药生物/医药商业 百洋医药（301015.SZ） 经营业绩相对承压，自有品牌为下一阶段发展重点 2025 年 04 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/25 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 18.17 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 35.90/17.37 | | 总市值(亿元) | 95.51 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 95.49 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.26 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 55.62 | 股价走势图 相关研究报告 《2024Q3 经营业绩稳健增长，品牌运 营业务稳健 —公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.29 《品牌运营领军者，创新驱动未来增 长—公司首次覆盖报告》-2024.9.27 余汝意（分析师） 巢舒然（联系人） yuruyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523070002 chaoshuran@kyse ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to benefit from long-term growth in the communication energy market [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 48.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.63%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.94% to 2.838 billion yuan [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.37%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28.99% [4] - The company has a strong order backlog in the energy network sector, amounting to approximately 31.2 billion yuan as of April 23, 2025 [5] - The company is focusing on R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 1.944 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.42% [6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 48.055 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [8] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 3.102 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [8] - The gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 14.4% in 2024 to 14.2% in 2025 [8] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 15.3 for 2025, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's operating performance is under pressure in 2024, with a revenue forecast of 12.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.72%, and a net profit of 27 million yuan, down 96.76% [4] - The company is optimistic about the potential of marketing reforms to drive business development and maintain a "Buy" rating despite the current challenges [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 553 million yuan, 622 million yuan, and 700 million yuan respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 27 million yuan and a gross margin of 39.32% [4][7] - The revenue breakdown shows a significant decline in the pharmaceutical industry segment, with a revenue of 7.04 billion yuan, down 32.25%, while the health and international business segment grew by 39.43% to 461 million yuan [5] - The company's expenses include a sales expense ratio of 26.54%, a management expense ratio of 5.49%, and a research and development expense ratio of 2.26% [4] Marketing and Business Transformation - The company is deepening its marketing reforms, focusing on academic foundations and enhancing marketing collaboration [6] - It aims to improve brand image and reach younger audiences through innovative marketing strategies [6] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 12.68 billion yuan in 2025, 13.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 14.07 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 553 million yuan, 622 million yuan, and 700 million yuan [7][9] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.99 yuan, 1.12 yuan, and 1.26 yuan respectively [4][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to benefit from long-term growth in the communication energy market [4][5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 48.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.63%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.94% to 2.838 billion yuan [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.37%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28.99% [4] - The company has a strong order backlog in the energy network sector, amounting to approximately 31.2 billion yuan as of April 23, 2025 [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 53.642 billion yuan, 59.508 billion yuan, and 66.036 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 10.9%, and 11.0% [6][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.102 billion yuan in 2025, 3.311 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.523 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 9.3%, 6.7%, and 6.4% [6][9] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 14.2% in 2025 to 13.9% in 2027 [6][9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 15.3, 14.3, and 13.5 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][9] Research and Development - The company invested 1.944 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, with an R&D expense ratio of 4.04% [6] - In Q1 2025, R&D expenses reached 404 million yuan, with an R&D expense ratio of 4.14% [6]

通信/通信设备 亨通光电（600487.SH） 业绩符合预期，充沛在手订单助力长期成长 2025 年 04 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.25 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 19.45/12.18 | | 总市值(亿元) | 376.18 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 372.89 | | 总股本(亿股) | 24.67 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 24.45 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 156.73 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 亨通光电 沪深300 相关研究报告 《扣非归母净利润同比高增，通信新 能源在手订单丰富—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.28 《光通信领军企业，"通信+新能源" 驱动长期成长—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.10.24 蒋颖（分析师） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 扣非归母净利润同比增长，看好公司长期成长 2025 年 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance has improved due to increased coal, electricity, and aluminum production, with a focus on the growth potential in coal and aluminum sectors as well as the transition to green energy [3][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 29.86 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.34 billion yuan, up 17.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The report anticipates a steady growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with projections of 5.79 billion yuan, 6.17 billion yuan, and 6.50 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 6.5%, and 5.4% [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company produced 47.996 million tons of raw coal, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, with a coal price of 221.6 yuan per ton, up 8.6% year-on-year [4] - The aluminum production reached 900,000 tons in 2024, with a selling price of 17,653.8 yuan per ton, reflecting a 6.2% increase year-on-year [4] - The company's electricity generation from coal was 5.53 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, while renewable energy generation surged by 94.7% to 6.03 billion kWh [4] Dividend and Growth Potential - The company plans to increase its coal production capacity and has ongoing projects in aluminum production, which are expected to contribute positively to its earnings [5] - The total cash dividend for 2024 is projected at 1.905 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.67%, indicating a year-on-year increase [5] - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to enhancing its dividend policy in line with market expectations and its growth trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's operating performance is under pressure in 2024, with a revenue of 12.39 billion yuan (down 20.72% year-on-year) and a net profit of 27 million yuan (down 96.76% year-on-year). The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2.83 billion yuan (down 32.79% year-on-year) and a net profit of 75 million yuan (down 69.80% year-on-year). The company is optimistic about the long-term growth potential driven by marketing reforms [4][5] - The company is undergoing a marketing transformation, focusing on academic foundations and enhancing marketing collaboration, which has led to 13 products entering 10 treatment guidelines and 19 expert consensus documents [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 123.86 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 39.32% (down 9.28 percentage points) and a net margin of 0.41% (down 5.05 percentage points) [4] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 5.53 billion yuan, 6.22 billion yuan, and 7.00 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99 yuan, 1.12 yuan, and 1.26 yuan [4][7] - The company's pharmaceutical industrial revenue in 2024 was 70.38 billion yuan (down 32.25%), while the health and international business revenue grew by 39.43% to 4.61 billion yuan [5] Marketing and Transformation Efforts - The company is deepening its marketing reforms, enhancing brand communication, and targeting younger audiences through various media channels to improve brand image and consumer engagement [6]