Report Information - Date: December 15, 2025 [1] - Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] - Event: The central bank announced the financial data for November 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly [8] - Structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [8] - The stock - bond allocation continues to switch, and bond yields are expected to rise continuously [8] Summary by Related Content Financial Data Overview - In November 2025, the new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding the average of the same period from 2021 - 2024. The median forecast of 16 institutions in Wind was 2.18 trillion yuan, and the average was 2.02 trillion yuan [4] - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the government sector leverage ratio was 67.5%, up 8.8 pct from the same period in 2024; the household sector leverage ratio was 60.4%, down 1.2 pct from the same period in 2024 [4] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 13.6% [3] - M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 10.6% year - on - year. From January to October, 917.5 billion yuan of cash was net - injected [3] Factors Affecting Social Financing and Loans - The new social financing in November exceeded expectations due to the implementation of policy - based financial instruments, the increase in net corporate bond financing and trust loans. In November, the trust loan volume was 8.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3 times; the net corporate bond financing volume was 416.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 75.1% [4] - The decline in loan data was affected by multiple factors. The economic structure is in a transition stage, and the credit demand of traditional industries such as real estate and infrastructure has declined. Emerging industries rely less on bank loans. Local government debt resolution will also pull down loan growth periodically [5] - In November, household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 154.1 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 630.4 billion yuan. The decrease in household medium - and short - term loans may reflect weak household demand and more cautious consumption, while the decrease in long - term loans may be related to the continued downturn in the real estate market [5] - In enterprise loans, bill financing was 334.2 billion yuan, still the main increase in new RMB loans in November [5] Market Performance - After the release of financial data on December 12, 2025, the bond market yield did not change significantly, and the long - term yield showed an upward trend during the day. Recent events such as the Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Central Economic Work Conference have all landed [7] Bond Market Viewpoint - Against the backdrop of the correction of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is set to acquire a multi-element injection liquid asset group from Future Pharmaceuticals for a total price of RMB 356 million, which includes both marketed and in-development products [5][6] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's product structure and expand its treatment areas, leveraging its market advantages in collective procurement and essential drug products [7] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated to be RMB 667 million, RMB 845 million, and RMB 1,067 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.95, RMB 1.20, and RMB 1.52 per share [5][8] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,942 million in 2023 to RMB 4,472 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.3% [8] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 61% in the coming years, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 19.7% in 2023 to 23.8% in 2027 [8] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 33.6 in 2023 to 12.0 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to see a significant increase in revenue due to the upcoming holiday season and the launch of new games, with notable titles like "Nine Muses of the Wild" and "Goose Duck Kill" generating high anticipation [3] - The film industry is highlighted by the upcoming release of "Avatar 3," which has already garnered significant pre-sale interest, indicating strong potential for box office performance [3] - The emotional economy in China is projected to grow substantially, with the market expected to reach 8.1 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by online platforms and AI technology [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Soul: Leading Immersive Social Platform - Soul is positioned as a leading platform in the immersive social space, leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and emotional value [11][17] - The emotional economy in China is projected to grow from 2.4 trillion yuan in 2024 to 8.1 trillion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 22.2% [12] - The platform reported a revenue of 16.83 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.82% [21][26] 2. Industry Data Overview - "Delta Action" topped the iOS free game chart, while "Honor of Kings" led the iOS revenue chart as of December 13, 2025 [27][31] - The film "Zootopia 2" achieved the highest weekly box office, indicating strong audience interest [41] 3. Industry News Summary - The release of GPT-5.2 is expected to enhance AI capabilities in the industry, while Disney's investment in OpenAI emphasizes the growing value of content IP [3] - The gaming sector is experiencing a surge, with "Delta Action" achieving record daily revenue following a new season launch [3] 4. Announcement Summary - Recent changes in leadership at various media companies and the successful "hat removal" of Caesar Culture highlight ongoing developments in the industry [3] 5. Sector Performance Overview - The A-share media sector performed moderately in the market, with the gaming sector showing strong performance [3]

Group 1: Policy Overview and M&A Dynamics - The report highlights the positive signals in the M&A market starting from 2024, driven by policies such as the "New National Nine Articles" and "M&A Six Articles" which support the integration of industries and optimize the review mechanisms for M&A transactions [12][17]. - Local governments are increasingly establishing M&A funds to support local enterprises, indicating a growing trend towards M&A as a means to enhance asset securitization rates [12][13]. - The report emphasizes that the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is positioned as a primary venue for M&A activities, particularly for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, facilitating timely capture of M&A opportunities [20][21]. Group 2: Case Study of Chuangyuan Xinke and Weiyu Tiandao - Chuangyuan Xinke plans to acquire 100% of Weiyu Tiandao for a total consideration of 886.3 million yuan, with 755.12 million yuan paid through share issuance and the remainder in cash [4][46]. - Weiyu Tiandao specializes in satellite navigation testing technology and has significant synergies with Chuangyuan Xinke, particularly in the areas of strategic alignment, product development, and market expansion [26][38]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance Chuangyuan Xinke's capabilities in the telecommunications and satellite navigation sectors, allowing for the development of integrated testing solutions for emerging fields such as 6G communication and low-orbit satellite internet [38][39]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - Weiyu Tiandao's revenue from positioning navigation timing (PNT) simulation testing was 140.18 million yuan in 2023, 167.73 million yuan in 2024, and 56.60 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a stable revenue stream [5][44]. - The company has a backlog of orders amounting to 231.02 million yuan as of June 30, 2025, with an expected revenue recognition of 173.49 million yuan from these orders in the latter half of 2025 [5][44]. - The performance commitment post-acquisition includes achieving a net profit of no less than 60.27 million yuan in 2026, 65.43 million yuan in 2027, and 75.53 million yuan in 2028 [5][46].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the emotional economy market, with China's market expected to reach RMB 24.253 trillion in 2024 and grow at a CAGR of 22.2% until 2030, while the global market is projected to reach RMB 14.7 trillion in 2024, with a CAGR of 20.9% [38][43] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the leading companies in the African hygiene products market, particularly LeShuShi, which has seen significant revenue and profit growth due to cost optimization and market expansion [45][46] - The report discusses the emergence of AI-driven social platforms, such as Soul and MiLian Technology, which are capitalizing on the emotional economy by offering unique user experiences and demonstrating strong financial performance [21][27] Summary by Sections Emotional Economy - The emotional economy is shifting consumer demand from material goods to experiences and emotional fulfillment, with consumers willing to pay for platforms and products that provide joy and stress relief [38] - The emotional economy market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of RMB 24.253 trillion by 2024 and a CAGR of 22.2% from 2024 to 2030 [38][41] AI-Driven Social Platforms - Soul, a leading social app targeting Gen Z, reported a revenue of RMB 16.83 billion in the first eight months of 2025, a 17.8% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.86 billion, reflecting a 73.1% growth [21][23] - MiLian Technology, focusing on a more mature demographic, achieved a revenue of RMB 19.2 billion in the first half of 2025, marking an 85.9% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.97 billion, up 285% [27][33] African Hygiene Products Market - LeShuShi is the market leader in Africa's hygiene products sector, holding a 20.3% market share in baby diapers and a 15.6% share in sanitary napkins by volume [45] - The company's revenue grew from USD 320 million in 2022 to USD 454 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.2%, and its adjusted net profit increased from USD 1.839 million to USD 9.767 million during the same period, achieving a CAGR of 130.5% [45][46] - LeShuShi's product range includes over 340 SKUs, with a focus on multi-brand strategies to cater to various consumer segments [51]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment, while retail and real estate sectors faced declines [1][1][1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in economic growth [11][12][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body and a notable increase in the commercial aerospace index, which has risen by 46.52% since April 7 [47][48] Group 2 - The report indicates a seasonal recovery in social financing, with November seeing an increase of 24,885 billion yuan, driven primarily by government bond issuance [4][7] - The credit environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 6,100 billion yuan in November, reflecting a recovery in demand [5][6] - The report notes that the retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality, as highlighted by the Ministry of Commerce's emphasis on retail quality upgrades [1][1][1] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising interest in inquiry transfers, which have seen a significant increase in both project numbers and transfer scale, indicating a growing trend in the market [51][52] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with upcoming events such as the Volcano Engine FORCE conference anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and cloud services [56]

2025 年 12 月 14 日 北交所研究团队 北交所打新配置策略：精选高质新股机会，布局低估值高分红资产 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 2025 年北交所新股收益率较好，审核加快关注北交所具备大市值低估值企业 从 2025 年新股情况看北交所表现较好，北交所、上交所、深交所上市企业首日 涨跌幅均值分别为 354.69%、222.90%、206.84%，网上发行中签率均值为 0.0371%、0.0488%、0.0211%，首次发行市盈率均值 12.70X、40.22X、19.77X， 首次发行市净率均值 1.57X、2.39X、2.04X。从北交所发审会节奏上来看，截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，2025 年 1-12 月北交所合计过会 43 家企业，合计上市 24 家 企业，其中 2025 年 11-12 月北交所合计过会 16 家企业。2025 年 7-12 月北交所 网上发行有效申购户数+冻结资金中枢整体稳定在均值59.95万户和7039.73亿元 左右。从 2025 年北交所新股申购中签率来看，2025 ...

Market Overview - As of November 27, 2025, the number of projects in China's inquiry transfer market reached 163, a 140% increase compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The transfer scale reached 84.445 billion yuan, which is 380% higher than the total for 2024[4] - The average discount rate for inquiry transfers in 2025 is approximately 84.34%, significantly lower than the 87.2% for private placements[15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inquiry transfer mechanism was officially implemented on the ChiNext board in May 2024, leading to a surge in transfer announcements, with 69 recorded in 2025, accounting for 42.33% of the total[4][24] - The inquiry transfer market has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 100.74% in project numbers from 2020 to 2025, and a CAGR of 84.68% in transfer scale[20] Investment Characteristics - Inquiry transfers have a shorter registration time of about one week compared to 3 weeks to 1 month for regular private placements, reducing capital occupation time by 2-3 weeks[14] - The inquiry transfer mechanism allows for a more flexible exit strategy for early investors, providing a low-disturbance path for orderly exits, which is crucial in a market with scarce quality assets[18][29] Market Performance - In the week of December 6 to December 12, 2025, the A-share market saw a general increase, with the ChiNext index rising by 2.74%[31] - The CPO index experienced the highest weekly increase of 14.26%, with a year-to-date increase of 183.30%[34] Key Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as smart vehicles (e.g., Hu Guang Co., Rui Hu Mould, Xin Quan Co., and Xin Dong Lian Ke) and high-end manufacturing (e.g., Ao Pu Te, Qing Niao Fire Protection, and Lei Te Optoelectronics) for potential investment opportunities[36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The upcoming Volcano Engine FORCE conference is expected to showcase significant advancements in AI models and ecosystem, with a focus on the release of new members of the Doubao model family, which aims to enhance performance and reduce costs [5][6] - The conference will also highlight upgrades to Agent development tools and the expansion of the Agent ecosystem, which are crucial for integrating AI into enterprise production scenarios [7] - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the ByteDance ecosystem and AI applications, recommending various companies that are expected to benefit from these trends [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry is projected to outperform the overall market [1] - The industry has shown a significant trend with a 24% fluctuation in the past months [2] Upcoming Events - The Volcano Engine FORCE conference is scheduled for December 18-19, 2025, featuring major announcements and advancements in AI technology [5] Model Developments - The new Doubao model members are anticipated to improve capabilities while lowering costs, particularly in video generation [6] Agent Ecosystem - Upgrades to Agent development tools are expected to enhance AI development processes, making them more efficient and comprehensive [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hand Information, Zhongke Chuangda, and others that are positioned to benefit from AI applications and computing power [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that coal prices are expected to stabilize, with a long-term upward trend anticipated for both thermal coal and coking coal prices. The recent decline in prices is viewed as a temporary adjustment, with expectations for recovery towards the target price range of 800-860 RMB per ton for thermal coal [3][4][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that as of December 12, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 753 RMB per ton, down 38 RMB from the previous week. The price at Guangzhou Port was 815 RMB per ton, indicating a completion of the previously suggested coal-electricity profit-sharing target of 750 RMB [3][4]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown a recent decline but are expected to recover due to tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly as the heating season begins and industrial production ramps up towards year-end [4][5]. - Coking coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1630 RMB per ton, up from a low of 1230 RMB in July, marking a 41.5% increase in futures prices [3][4]. Investment Logic - The report outlines a four-step process for the expected price recovery of thermal coal, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a profit-sharing equilibrium between coal and power companies, with a target price of around 750 RMB for 2025 [4][13]. - Coking coal prices are expected to be more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for investing in coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin Kong Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Co., Electric Power Investment Energy 4. Growth logic: Xinji Energy, Guanghui Energy [5][14]. Key Indicators - The coal index fell by 3.64% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.56 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 14.76, and the PB ratio is 1.3 [10][17].