Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than anticipated, indicating a cooling labor market[5] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remained stable at approximately 62.5%, while the unemployment rate increased, suggesting a divergence in labor market conditions[22] - The share of permanent job losers decreased, while the proportion of temporary and re-employed workers increased, indicating a shift towards short-term employment[28] - Job openings in October were 7.67 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics in the labor market[43] Federal Reserve Outlook - The urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is low, despite signs of a slowing job market[7] - Fed officials anticipate that three rate cuts in 2025 will support the labor market, reducing the immediate need for further cuts[52] - Inflation risks remain, and the Fed is cautious about further rate reductions that could exacerbate inflationary pressures[55] Economic Projections - The Fed's internal forecasts suggest a temporary rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%-4.7% in 2025, but overall stability is expected in the long term[53] - The baseline scenario indicates that the Fed may implement 1-2 rate cuts in 2026, primarily in the third quarter[55]

2025 年 12 月 17 日 开源晨会 1217 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 沪深300 创业板指 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.316 | | 美容护理 | 0.664 | | 社会服务 | 0.126 | | 食品饮料 | -0.018 | | 交通运输 | -0.421 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | -2.952 | | 综合 | -2.81 | | 有色金属 | -2.809 | | 电力设备 | -2.658 | | 传媒 | -2.414 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】黄金价格再度逼近历史最高点——宏观经济专题-20251216 供需：建筑开工维持弱势，工业开工边际走弱，需求走弱 1.建筑开工：开工率维持历史 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains weak, with operating rates for asphalt plants, cement dispatch, and grinding mills at historical lows[1] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, but some sectors are showing signs of weakness, particularly in steel and automotive[1] - Demand for construction materials, automobiles, and home appliances is weak, with rebar and building materials at historical low demand levels[2] Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached or are approaching historical highs, driven by expanding dollar liquidity and industrial activity[2] - The recent two weeks saw fluctuations in oil prices, while copper and aluminum prices have shown upward trends[2] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing mixed trends, with some materials like cement and asphalt declining in price[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in 30 major cities have decreased by 16% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 21% and 35% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen[4] Export and Liquidity - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 2.1% year-on-year for the first two weeks of December[5] - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 1.4134 trillion yuan[5] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform" [2][4] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has faced a decline in revenue and profit due to price pressures from photovoltaic module manufacturers, which are pushing for lower costs [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" policies in the photovoltaic industry, which may lead to a market recovery [4][5] - The company has successfully expanded its product applications in various downstream special fields, particularly in rubber sealing products [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 32.05 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 85.12 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.84% [4] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 61.66% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a rise in advance payments [4] Industry Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a reduction in excess capacity, with production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules decreasing in December [5] - The company is positioned as a supplier for major players in the petrochemical industry, which is expected to enhance its market presence [6] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55.8 for 2025, 52.6 for 2026, and 49.1 for 2027 [4] - The report projects a decline in gross margin, with expectations of 35.6% in 2025, 34.5% in 2026, and 33.6% in 2027 [7][10]

2025 年 12 月 16 日 策略研究团队 卫星产业迎来组网加速、成本拐点的黄金窗口期 ——投资策略点评 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 科技高低切，重视卫星等具备强弹性的品种 我们此前于多篇报告中推荐卫星的投资机会：我们在《市场的双轮驱动：科技 &PPI 交易》中明确提出军工（卫星）的投资机会；在《广发中证卫星产业 ETF （512630.OF）的核心投资价值——市场规模大、政策技术双驱动、应用场景丰 富》中提出"卫星产业是确定性较强的战略投资机会，具备市场规模潜力大、政 策强力支持、技术迭代加速、应用场景拓宽等特征。""当下是配置卫星产业的时 间点"。更进一步的，当前商业航天（卫星）领域的催化进一步加速，我们认为 当下处在配置卫星产业的黄金窗口。 事件：近期低轨卫星频发，叠加可回收火箭发射的重大事件 今年以来，中国低轨卫星的发射频次明显增加，尤其是在卫星互联网方向，已经 形成了高密度、批量化的发射节奏。近期，卫星发射提速明显，实现"7 天三连 ...

Summary of Key Points Overall Perspective - The report highlights that social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan in November 2025, exceeding market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% in social financing stock, remaining stable compared to the previous value [7][8] - The report indicates a structural differentiation in credit data, with traditional industries like real estate and infrastructure showing a decline in credit demand, while emerging industries are less reliant on bank loans [9] Industry Insights Electronics - The semiconductor equipment sector is identified as a key technology line with strong certainty and elasticity, with the semiconductor index rising by 3.30% [14] - The report notes that major overseas tech companies have underperformed, leading to a significant drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 3.58% [14] Retail - The retail sales in November 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with total retail sales amounting to 4.569 trillion yuan from January to November, reflecting a 4.0% increase year-on-year [19][20] - The report emphasizes the resilience of essential goods like grain and oil, while discretionary categories like jewelry performed relatively well [20] Real Estate - New home prices in November 2025 showed a reduced decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a larger drop compared to second and third-tier cities [24][25] - The report suggests that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at preventing further declines [28] Media - The gaming sector is expected to see increased activity due to the upcoming holiday season, with new game releases anticipated to boost revenue [30] - The report highlights the collaboration between Disney and OpenAI, which is expected to enhance the value of content IP [31][33] Pharmaceuticals - The report discusses the acquisition of a multi-element injection asset group by Zuo Li Pharmaceutical, which is expected to enrich its product structure and enhance marketing synergy [43][44] - The market for multi-element injections is projected to reach approximately 1.8 billion yuan by 2024, with continued growth expected [44] Military Industry - Hua Qin Technology is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for stealth materials due to the accelerated deployment of new stealth aircraft [48][49] - The company is also expanding into high-value areas related to aircraft engines, which is expected to create a second growth curve [50] Power Equipment and New Energy - Tian Ci Materials is recognized as a global leader in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte production, with a projected global market share of 35.7% in 2024 [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing weak sales under high base conditions, with a trend of exchanging price for volume continuing towards the end of the year [1][5] - The overall performance of the sales market has been lackluster since the second half of the year, with a significant decline in sales data reflecting persistent market hesitation [8][33] Summary by Sections Sales Data - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 8.1% [5][14] - In November 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable trend of price reduction to stimulate sales [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area from January to November 2025 was 535 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.9% [6][19] - The completion area was 395 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction data [6][19] Investment Data - Real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 7.86 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment down 15.0% [7][23] - The funds available to real estate developers were 8.51 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with significant declines in various funding sources [7][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][35] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The semiconductor equipment sector is characterized by strong certainty and resilience, making it a key focus in technology investments [1] - The electronic industry index increased by 1.36% this week, with semiconductors leading the gains at 3.30% [3] - The U.S. is expected to allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China, while the storage supply-demand tightness continues [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - AI edge products are experiencing explosive growth, with Google showcasing its Project Aura smart glasses and announcing hardware plans for the coming years [4] - The semiconductor industry is seeing significant revenue growth, with Broadcom reporting a 28% year-over-year increase in revenue, and AI semiconductor revenue expected to double to $8.2 billion [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor equipment investment opportunities, particularly with Changxin's IPO progress and advanced logic expansion [5] - Beneficiary stocks include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and others [5]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 商贸零售 行业走势图 《医美化妆品 11 月月报：美丽田园收 购思妍丽 100%股权，双十一大促落幕 美 妆 表 现 亮 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.3 11 月社零同比+1.3%，整体增速有所承压 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 李昕恬（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | lixintian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790125100021 | 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《商务部明确零售品质转型，关注永 辉超市调改成效 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《林清轩更新招股书，关注高端国货 护 肤 公 司 上 市 进 展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.7 lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125100021 2025 年 11 月 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026, with a focus on implementing consumption-boosting initiatives and enhancing the domestic market [11][12][13] - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is projected to be 86.4%, with final consumption accounting for an average contribution rate of 56.2% [12][13] - The report highlights the shift in the retail industry towards quality and service-driven growth, as discussed in the National Retail Innovation Development Conference [15][16] Group 2 - The North Exchange's consumer services sector saw a weekly increase of 0.44%, with food and beverage sector rising by 3.32% [25][31] - As of December 13, 2025, there are 25 companies related to the consumer services sector in the North Exchange's queue, with an average revenue of 1.242 billion yuan and an average net profit of 140.35 million yuan for 2024 [47][48] - Notable companies in the consumer services sector include Yizhi Moyu, which has a market value of 3.555 billion yuan and a net profit of 62.34 million yuan for 2025 Q1-Q3 [24][35] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising food prices [36][38] - The average wholesale price of pork is reported at 17.65 yuan per kilogram, while the average price of eggs is at 7.43 yuan per kilogram, reflecting market conditions [40][41] - The report indicates that the average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces is 3.02 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous week [46] Group 4 - The report outlines the significant sales performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival, with home appliances, digital devices, and clothing being the top three categories by sales volume [19][21] - The "Double 12" shopping event is set to further stimulate consumer spending, with various platforms launching promotional activities [18][22] - The report identifies 20 related stocks in the North Exchange for the "Double 12" event, covering categories such as home appliances, personal care, and food and beverages [23][24]