Group 1: Inflation Overview - The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, both below market expectations[2] - Overall inflation shows a significant downward trend, with November CPI down 0.3 percentage points from September, and core CPI down 0.4 percentage points[3] - Core service inflation is a key driver of the overall inflation decline, with a notable decrease in core service inflation contributing to the unexpected drop in CPI[4] Group 2: Energy and Food Inflation - Energy prices rose by 4.2% year-on-year in November, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from September, while food prices increased by 2.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from September[4] - Core goods inflation showed a slight decline, with core goods year-on-year growth decreasing by 0.15 percentage points compared to September[4] - The significant drop in core service inflation, particularly in housing, is a major factor in the overall CPI decline[21] Group 3: Future Inflation Trends - Inflation levels are expected to continue declining, with core inflation remaining a critical factor; the super core service inflation (excluding housing) decreased to 2.7% year-on-year in November[5] - The high base in December 2024 may lead to further declines in overall inflation levels, with core inflation potentially stabilizing or decreasing[5] - The uncertainty remains regarding whether businesses will raise prices in 2026 as the Fed's rate cuts begin to support the economy[5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Implications - The importance of inflation risk in Federal Reserve decision-making may decrease, as inflation trends show a clear downward trajectory and public inflation expectations are also declining[5] - Despite the decline in inflation, the Fed is unlikely to implement significant rate cuts in the short term, as inflation may not reach the 2% target until 2027[6] - The Fed is expected to monitor economic conditions closely, with a potential for 1-2 rate cuts in 2026, primarily in the second half of the year[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform" [1][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 569 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 62.34 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year [3] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the increase in both volume and price of konjac powder products, as well as the rising sales of konjac food products. The company is transitioning from a raw material manufacturer to an application service provider, with R&D expenses increasing by 31.01% year-on-year [3][4] - The market for konjac deep-processing products has been expanding, with a compound annual growth rate of 26% over the past decade. There is significant potential for market expansion as consumer demand for healthy foods increases [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 798 million yuan in 2025, 983 million yuan in 2026, and 1.227 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.4%, 23.3%, and 24.8% respectively [5][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 90 million yuan in 2025, 110 million yuan in 2026, and 134 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 3.9%, 21.9%, and 22.0% respectively [5][9] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 23.6% in 2025, with a net margin of 11.3% [9]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in government fund expenditures, indicating a potential boost to the macroeconomic environment [3][4] - The banking sector is experiencing a trend of deposit migration from smaller banks to larger ones, reflecting changing consumer preferences and market conditions [23][24] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, particularly with the merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and other securities firms, which is expected to enhance their competitive position [30][31] Macroeconomic Overview - In November, the national general public budget revenue was 1.4026 trillion yuan, while expenditures reached 2.2713 trillion yuan, indicating a fiscal deficit [3] - Tax revenue growth is slowing, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.8% in November, down from 8.6% previously, suggesting economic pressures [4] - Government fund income decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, but expenditures surged by 41% to 1.1232 trillion yuan, indicating a strategic push to stimulate the economy [4][5] Banking Sector Analysis - The report notes a decline in non-bank deposits by 83.3 billion yuan in November, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior towards larger banks [23] - Smaller banks saw a year-on-year decrease in savings deposits, while larger banks experienced an increase, indicating a trend of deposit consolidation [24] - The report anticipates that the credit demand will continue to slow, particularly in consumer lending, as banks adjust to market conditions [24][27] Non-Bank Financial Sector Insights - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance CICC's net assets and market position [30][31] - The report forecasts a robust growth in CICC's net profit, projecting increases of 83%, 35%, and 20% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [31] - The merger is anticipated to improve capital efficiency and expand CICC's wealth management and investment banking capabilities [33] Industry Trends - The report identifies a recovery in the offline IPO market, with significant improvements in new share issuance and investor returns [14] - The "merger six guidelines" have led to a notable increase in merger and acquisition activities, particularly in the technology sector [15] - The report highlights a growing interest in sectors such as textiles, automotive, and steel, as indicated by increased institutional research activity [8][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous improvement of Google's AI ecosystem, with the release of TPUv7 Ironwood and Gemini 3 series models, which are expected to drive demand for liquid cooling solutions and enhance market expansion [3][4] - There is a strong demand for TPU, with companies like Anthropic and Meta planning to rent TPU chips from Google, indicating a significant market opportunity [4] - The AI sector is expected to boost the demand for optical fibers and cables, leading to a potential price recovery in this segment [5] - The report emphasizes three core investment themes: "Optical, Liquid Cooling, and Domestic Computing Power," while also highlighting opportunities in satellite and edge AI [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, with a focus on the advancements in AI technology and its implications for related sectors [1] Market Trends - The demand for TPU is increasing, with notable partnerships and rental agreements being established, which will likely enhance ASIC demand [4] - The AI-driven growth is expected to elevate the usage of optical fibers and cables, particularly in data center interconnects and metropolitan area networks [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Invec (leader in liquid cooling solutions), with beneficiaries such as Feilong Co., Dayuan Pump Industry, Lingyun Co., and others in the optical fiber and cable sector [4][5][6]

Revenue Insights - In November, the national general public budget revenue was 1,402.6 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.02%[2] - Tax revenue growth slowed down, with November tax revenue recorded at 1,145.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 8.6% in the previous month[2] - Non-tax revenue in November was 257.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month[2] Expenditure Trends - General budget expenditure in November was 2,271.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, but showing a marginal improvement from a previous decline of 9.8%[3] - Social security and employment expenditure saw a significant drop, decreasing by 7% in November, marking a rare negative growth in the past three years[3] - Science and technology expenditure increased significantly by 28 percentage points to 27% in November, indicating a focus on innovation[3] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue in November was 580.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, but the decline was less than the previous month by 2.6 percentage points[4] - Government fund expenditure surged to 1,123.2 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41 percentage points, indicating a strong recovery in spending[4] - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, contributing to the significant increase in government fund expenditure[4] Fiscal Health Outlook - The overall fiscal revenue decline is expected to be manageable, with potential revenue gaps estimated at around 340 billion yuan under certain assumptions[4] - If the government fund revenue growth continues as in November, the total revenue gap could exceed 750 billion yuan, but the impact on the economy is expected to be limited[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in non-bank deposit growth, indicating a reduced diversion of deposits to the stock market, with large banks experiencing a net inflow of deposits while smaller banks see a decline [5][6] - The report suggests that the upcoming quarter (Q1 2026) will present challenges for banks in terms of asset-liability matching due to the maturity of high-interest deposits and fluctuating deposit growth [7] - The investment strategy emphasizes balancing asset quality and pricing power, with a focus on large state-owned banks and leading comprehensive banks as key investment targets [8] Summary by Sections Deposit Trends - In November, large banks saw a decrease of 83.3 billion yuan in non-bank deposits, reflecting a weakening effect of the stock market on deposit diversion [5] - Non-bank deposit growth remains higher than that of resident fixed deposits, indicating a shift of funds into wealth management products [6] - Smaller banks experienced a year-on-year decrease of 478.9 billion yuan in fixed deposits, while large banks saw an increase of 419.4 billion yuan, suggesting a trend of deposit migration back to larger institutions [6] Credit and Investment Dynamics - Credit demand, particularly in consumer sectors, remains weak, leading to a continued slowdown in lending growth [7] - The report anticipates that banks may increase bond investments to fill year-end balance sheet requirements, especially as high-interest fixed deposits mature [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on large state-owned banks as foundational investments, with specific mentions of Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as beneficiaries [8] - Core investments should target leading comprehensive banks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, with a recommendation for CITIC Bank as a key stock [8] - For more flexible investments, banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Bank are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [8]

2025 年 12 月 18 日 美国公布 11 月非农就业数据。新增非农就业 6.4 万，失业率为 4.6%，均高于市场 预期。平均时薪同比增长 3.5%，略低于市场预期。虽然 11 月非农就业数据显示 当前美国就业市场可能仍在缓慢向下，但结合美联储 12 月 FOMC 的表态以及近 期美联储官员们的发言来看，美联储短期内降息的可能性并不高。 开源晨会 1218 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 5.066 | | 有色金属 | 3.03 | | 电子 | 2.48 | | 基础化工 | 2.15 | | 电力设备 | 2.087 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.543 | | 国防军工 | -0.197 | | 煤炭 | -0.115 | | 房地产 | ...

- The report constructs a valuation indicator called "Hundred Yuan Conversion Premium Rate" to compare the valuation of convertible bonds and their underlying stocks over time[3] - The "Hundred Yuan Conversion Premium Rate" rolling three-year percentile is at 98.00%, and the rolling five-year percentile is at 94.50% as of December 12, 2025[3][16] - The report constructs a valuation indicator called "Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM" to compare the valuation of debt-biased convertible bonds and credit bonds[4] - The "Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM" median is -3.95% as of December 12, 2025, indicating a low overall cost-effectiveness of debt-biased convertible bonds[4][16] - The report constructs two valuation deviation factors: Conversion Premium Deviation Factor and Theoretical Value Deviation Factor (Monte Carlo Model), and combines them into a Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor[5] - The Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor is constructed as follows: $$ \text{Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor} = \text{Rank}(\text{Conversion Premium Deviation}) + \text{Rank}(\text{Theoretical Value Deviation (Monte Carlo Model)}) $$ [22] - The Conversion Premium Deviation Factor is calculated as: $$ \text{Conversion Premium Deviation} = \text{Conversion Premium} - \text{Fitted Conversion Premium} $$ [22] - The Theoretical Value Deviation Factor (Monte Carlo Model) is calculated as: $$ \text{Theoretical Value Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Closing Price}}{\text{Theoretical Value}} - 1 $$ [22] - The report constructs three low-valuation equal-weight indices: Equity-biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index, Balanced Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index, and Debt-biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index[20] - The report constructs a Convertible Bond Style Rotation Portfolio using Convertible Bond 20-day Momentum and Convertible Bond Volatility Deviation as market sentiment capture indicators, with bi-weekly rebalancing[5][28] - The Convertible Bond Style Market Sentiment Capture Indicator is constructed as follows: $$ \text{Convertible Bond Style Market Sentiment Capture Indicator} = \text{Rank}(\text{Convertible Bond 20-day Momentum}) + \text{Rank}(\text{Volatility Deviation}) $$ [29] Model Backtest Results - Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor in equity-biased, balanced, and debt-biased convertible bonds enhanced excess returns of -2.89%, -0.82%, and -0.74% respectively over the past two weeks as of December 12, 2025[5][24] - Equity-biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index: Annualized Return 25.86%, Annualized Volatility 20.68%, Maximum Drawdown 22.94%, IR 1.25, Calmar Ratio 1.13[25] - Balanced Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index: Annualized Return 14.96%, Annualized Volatility 11.97%, Maximum Drawdown 15.95%, IR 1.25, Calmar Ratio 0.94[25] - Debt-biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index: Annualized Return 12.11%, Annualized Volatility 9.83%, Maximum Drawdown 17.78%, IR 1.23, Calmar Ratio 0.68[25] - Convertible Bond Style Rotation: Annualized Return 24.52%, Annualized Volatility 16.81%, Maximum Drawdown 15.89%, IR 1.46, Calmar Ratio 1.54[34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic structure shows internal differentiation under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in November 2025. Although there are challenges, the transformation of new and old driving forces has structural highlights, and it is expected that the annual economic development target can be achieved with the continuous policy support. In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise due to the revision of economic expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Focus - **Industrial Added Value**: Affected by insufficient domestic demand and the high - base effect, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value in November was lower than expected. The year - on - year growth was 4.8%, 0.1 pct lower than the previous value, and lower than the median and average forecasts of 18 institutions. However, the month - on - month growth was 0.44%, 0.27 pct higher than the previous value, showing some month - on - month recovery [4]. - **Consumption and Export**: Consumption and export data showed a differentiated trend. The year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, 1.6 pct lower than the previous value, reflecting insufficient domestic demand. The year - on - year growth of exports was 5.9%, 7.0 pct higher than the previous value [5]. - **Investment**: Fixed - asset investment was under pressure. The cumulative year - on - year decrease was 2.6%, 0.9 pct lower than the previous value. Real estate investment continued to bottom out, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% from January to November, and the decline was 1.2 pct larger than that from January to October [5][6]. 3.2 Structural Highlights in the Transformation of New and Old Driving Forces - **Investment Structure Optimization**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of investment in high - tech services was 4.1%, accounting for 5.4% of total service industry investment, 0.6 pct higher than the same period in 2024. - **Growth of New - Quality Productivity Industries**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing and intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing was 9.2% and 7.6% respectively. - **Stabilizing Role of Equipment Manufacturing**: In November, the year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale equipment manufacturing was 7.7%, and the cumulative added value accounted for 36.4% of all large - scale industries, 1.8 pct higher than the whole year of 2024, and it has exceeded 30% for 33 consecutive months [7]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - It is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields expected to rise continuously [8].

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 基础化工 沪深300 基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 17 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 相关研究报告 《中央经济工作会议强调深入整治 "内卷式"竞争，磷肥市场座谈会在 北京召开—行业周报》-2025.12.14 《关注 BOPET 行业反内卷动向，全球 MDI 价格联动上涨—化工行业周报》 -2025.12.7 《发改委价格司组织召开价格无序竞 争成本认定工作座谈会，2026 年中国 钾肥大合同达成 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 抗老化助剂厂家发布涨价函，看好行业景气底部向上 修复、格局优化 ——抗老化助剂行业点评报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 徐正凤（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790524070005 | 事件：抗老化助剂厂家发布涨价函，看好行业景气底部向上修复、格局优化 12 ...