J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 12 February 2025 Western Digital Analyst Day Takeaways: Solid LT Growth Opportunities Driven By Capacity-Optimized HDD Cloud/AI Demand And Strong Technology/Manufacturing Scale Yesterday, we attended WDC's Investor Day held in New York and came away with the view that the team is well positioned to deliver solid long-term revenue growth with a stable margin profile as cloud/hyperscalers continue to drive strong exabyte HDD storage demand on continued cloud data ...

13 Feb 2025 04:14:03 ET │ 9 pages Flash | China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #16 – Steel Inventory and Consumption Data Tracker CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. Our revised near-term pecking order is: Steel, Cement, Coal, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, and Lithium names (see our notes: China Steel – Shifting Our Near-term Sector Pecking Order and Chin ...

ANTA Sports | Asia Pacific Ability to Adapt Deserves Re- rating As a large and liquid stock, ANTA's ability to deliver earnings growth outperformance and commitment to shareholder returns make it a strong candidate for a consumer core holding. Its abundant capital resources, strong track record and organizational capabilities support further M&A. Key Takeaways Investment thesis: Investing in China sportswear hasn't been easy. The industry is subject to macro risks, with competition becoming more intense as ...

February 13, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Improved with Strong AI Momentum A-share sentiment improved along with the strong Chinese AI momentum. However, performance divergence between Tech and non-Tech is striking as deflation pressure persists. Signposts for further bullishness center around geopolitical improvement, policy upside and faster AI adoption. A-share investor sentiment improved vs. prior cutoff date: Weighted MSASI and simple MSASI improved by 18ppt ...

Summary of the Aluminum Industry Research Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of February 6 to February 12, 2025, following the Chinese New Year [1][8]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 833,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 3% year-over-year (YoY) and 3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2]. - Aluminum billet production reached 310 kt, marking a 16% increase WoW, 15% YoY, and 8% YoY on the lunar calendar [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 1,807 kt on February 13, 2025, which is a 7% increase WoW and a 10% increase YoY, remaining flat YoY on the lunar calendar [3]. - Social inventory was 1,098 kt, up 15% WoW and 20% YoY, while producers' inventory was 710 kt, down 4% WoW and 11% YoY [3]. - For aluminum ingots, total inventory was 1,014 kt, reflecting a 12% increase WoW and a 13% increase YoY [3]. - Aluminum billets had a total inventory of 793 kt, remaining flat WoW but increasing by 6% YoY [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 739 kt, showing a significant 79% increase WoW and a 169% increase YoY, with a 7% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [4]. - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingots was 757 kt, increasing by 16% WoW but decreasing by 4% YoY on the lunar calendar, while aluminum billets saw apparent consumption of 292 kt, a 10-fold increase WoW and a 56% increase YoY [4]. Market Insights - The increase in aluminum inventory aligns with historical trends, indicating a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery [5]. - The current inventory levels are higher than the same period in 2021 and 2024 but lower than the levels seen in 2022-2023 on the lunar calendar [5]. - The apparent consumption levels during this week were higher than the same periods in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar, suggesting a potential recovery in demand [5]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of aluminum ingot and billet inventory data for calculating overall aluminum demand, as it encompasses a broader range of inventory types [5]. - The analysis is based on data from Mysteel, a consultancy specializing in the materials sector [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the aluminum industry research call, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends that are essential for understanding the current market dynamics.

Summary of the IEA Oil Market Update - February 2025 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil & Gas - **Region**: Asia-Pacific Key Points Demand and Supply Projections - Global oil demand for 2025 is projected at **104.0 million barrels per day (MMbls/d)**, an increase of **1.1 MMbls/d** from the previous year [2][9] - Non-OECD demand is expected to grow by **1.1 MMbls/d**, with China contributing an unchanged **0.2 MMbls/d** [2] Non-OPEC Supply Adjustments - Non-OPEC supply for 2025 has been revised down by **0.2 MMbls/d** to **71.6 MMbls/d**, reflecting a year-on-year increase of **1.4 MMbls/d** [3][11] - OECD supply remains unchanged at **32.7 MMbls/d**, with the US supply revised up by **0.1 MMbls/d** and Europe down by **0.1 MMbls/d** [3] OPEC Supply Dynamics - The call on OPEC crude for 2025 has increased by **0.2 MMbls/d** to **26.7 MMbls/d**, but is still **0.4 MMbls/d** lower than in 2024, indicating a potential oversupply [4][25] - Total effective spare capacity for OPEC is estimated at **6.0 MMbls/d**, which is **4.5%** of the projected demand for 2025 [4][22] Inventory Trends - OECD commercial inventories fell by **26 MMbls** in December, totaling **2,737 MMbls**, which is **41 MMbls** lower than a year ago and **139 MMbls** below the 5-year average [5][17] - January estimates suggest a further decline of **20 MMbls** in inventories [1] Refinery Throughput and Margins - Global refinery throughput is at **84.0 MMbls/d**, up **0.7 MMbls/d** year-on-year, but has been revised down to **83.3 MMbls/d** for 2025 [6] - Product margins have decreased by **US$0.5/bbl** to **US$4.0/bbl**, indicating ongoing challenges in the downstream sector [7] Investment Implications - The update presents an incrementally positive outlook for oil, despite the oversupply situation. Investors are advised to monitor inventory trends closely [25] - The potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could negatively impact energy prices, particularly for gas and LNG, rather than oil [25] - A forecast price of **US$70/bbl** for Brent is anticipated due to market oversupply, with inventory builds being crucial for validating this outlook [25] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of geopolitical factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and their potential impact on oil supply and pricing [25] - The unwinding of OPEC production cuts could lead to an increase in OPEC supply by **1 MMbls/d** by year-end, but this is contingent on demand dynamics [25] This summary encapsulates the essential findings and projections from the IEA Oil Market Update, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil and gas industry in the Asia-Pacific region.

Summary of Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd 4Q24 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Rating**: Outperform - **Price Target**: - H-share: 30.00 HKD - A-share: 55.00 CNY Key Financial Highlights - **4Q24 Revenue**: 539.2 million USD, in-line with expectations, showing a 2.4% QoQ increase and 18.4% YoY increase [12] - **Gross Profit**: 61.4 million USD, lower than expected, with a Gross Profit Margin (GPM) of 11.4%, down 77 basis points QoQ [10] - **Net Income Margin (NPM)**: -4.7%, significantly missing expectations due to foreign exchange headwinds [10] - **CapEx**: Doubled QoQ to 2.7 billion USD for the full year, indicating a strong commitment to capacity expansion [2] Guidance and Market Outlook - **1Q25 Guidance**: Revenue expected between 530-550 million USD, missing consensus of 560 million USD; GPM guidance of 9.0%-11.0% also below consensus [11] - **Management Outlook**: Cautiously optimistic for 2025, focusing on capacity expansion despite supply pressures [3] - **Capacity Expansion Plans**: Wuxi Fab 9 to accelerate installation of 12" equipment, targeting effective capacity of 20-30kwpm by end of 2025 [3] Industry Insights - **Matured Node Foundry Demand**: Remains strong in China, but competition is intensifying, leading to pricing pressures [4] - **Semiconductor Capital Expenditure**: Accelerated CapEx is expected to positively impact the semiconductor capital equipment market in 2025 [4] Investment Implications - **Potential for Re-rating**: As demand for matured node foundry in China recovers, Hua Hong is expected to benefit from improved utilization and ASP increases over the next 12 months [41] - **Concerns**: Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in matured node foundry demand and potential supply/demand imbalances due to rapid capacity expansion by competitors [49] Additional Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: 55.54 billion CNY [5] - **Performance**: - YTD: 21.5% - 1M: 22.0% - 6M: 43.1% - 12M: 76.5% [5] Conclusion Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd's 4Q24 results indicate a mixed performance with revenue meeting expectations but profitability metrics falling short. The company is focusing on aggressive capacity expansion amidst a competitive landscape, with cautious optimism for 2025. The semiconductor industry outlook remains positive, particularly for capital equipment, despite potential risks related to demand recovery and pricing pressures.

新能源拐点系列，锂电板块推荐：攻守之势异 摘要 Q&A 近期锂电行业的市场表现如何？有哪些关键因素影响了市场走势？ 近期锂电行业经历了一段低迷期，主要受到 AI 和机器人等领域吸引存量资金的 影响。然而，以宁德时代为例，过去一周内迎来了两波强劲的上涨。第一波上 涨受益于外资的引入以及房地产政策的积极信号；第二波则得益于市场对中国 核心资产的重估。这些因素使得宁德时代在非 AI 相关公司中表现尤为强势。 • 宁德时代受益于外资引入和房地产政策利好，以及市场对中国核心资产的 重估，在非 AI 相关公司中表现强势。未来一到两周内，锂电行业可能释放 新的景气度信号，如宁德时代二月份议价情况和三月份排产状况。 • 尽管春节后乘用车订单有所走平，但三月份宁德时代和比亚迪的排产预计 将显著回升，分别接近 60GWh 和增长 25%-30%，反映了政策观望情绪、新 老产品过渡以及积压订单释放等多重因素。 • 锂电行业价格体系不仅反映供需关系，还反映预期价格。以宁德时代为代 表的企业家在与供应商的博弈中展现强势姿态，推动磷酸铁锂价格上涨， 联上、建锠、三商等公司已成功提升价格。 • 三月份之后，乘用车订单有望回升，宁德时代排产 ...

铝产业链：焦价跳涨，22 年历史行情能否重演？ 摘要 Q&A 请介绍一下近期石油焦交易市场的基本情况及价格走势。 从 2024 年 10 月开始，石油焦价格逐步上涨，并在春节后出现了快速跳涨。具 体来看，从 2024 年 10 月至 2025 年 1 月 3 日，石油焦价格经历了持续稳定的上 涨阶段，而从 2025 年 1 月 24 日（春节后一周）开始进入快速疯狂上涨阶段。 在这四个多月的时间里，市场累计涨幅达到了 3,100 元，其中二号焦价累计涨 幅为 2000 元。节后市场对石油焦的关注度显著提高。 • 2025 年初石油焦市场经历快速上涨，累计涨幅达 3,100 元，二号焦价格上 涨 2000 元，主要原因是国内炼厂检修减产、库存持续下降导致供需失衡， 以及节后市场关注度提高。 • 未来国内石油焦供应预计维持低位，炼厂检修计划持续，山东港口对特定 原油靠港限制未解除，可能影响地炼企业原料供应，预计第二、三季度供 应偏紧。 • 中国石油焦进口量自 2023 年起明显降低，2024 年同比减少 16%，港口库存 也随之下降，但春节期间出港速度放缓导致节后库存小幅回升，低硫焦港 口库存依然偏紧。 • 石油 ...

微信接入 deepseek 后，应用端最新观点 摘要 Q&A Meta 在接入 AI 后，在用户侧和商业化侧有哪些进展？ Meta 在接入 AI 后，在用户侧和商业化方面取得了显著进展。Meta 推出了 Meta AI，这一功能内嵌于 Facebook 和 Instagram 等应用中，作为一个小助手，用户 可以随时调用与其聊天、提问。这一功能集合了搜索、图像内容生成等多种功 能。自去年（2024 年）上半年首次推出以来，Meta AI 的用户增长迅速。截至 去年（2024 年）第三季度，Meta AI 的月活跃用户达到 4 亿，占整体 40 亿月活 跃用户的 10%。到去年（2024 年）第四季度，这一数字增至 7 亿，占比接近 20%。这表明拥有大规模用户基础的公司在 AI 产品改造方面具有显著优势。 • Meta AI 用户增长迅速，截至 2024 年第四季度，月活跃用户达 7 亿，占整 体用户近 20%，显示大规模用户基础公司在 AI 产品改造方面优势显著，预 示 C 端 AI 应用潜力巨大。 • DeepSeek 的开源特性推动中国互联网公司价值重估，腾讯加速 C 端 AI 产 品推进，如 AI 红 ...