Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.90, reflecting a valuation premium due to its leading position in the industry and expected profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core leader in the upstream dairy industry, with a clear and steadily improving cyclical evolution path. It is expected to be at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, with marginal recovery in beef prices and low raw milk prices. The apparent profit losses are gradually narrowing, showcasing cash profit resilience [1][5]. - In 2026, the company is anticipated to enter a phase of cyclical recovery, with a gradual initiation of dairy and meat resonance. This is expected to lead to volume and price recovery, impairment improvement, and potential merger synergies, collectively enhancing performance elasticity [3][1]. - The peak of the dual-cycle resonance for dairy and meat is projected to occur in 2028, establishing a "stable dairy and strong meat" pattern, with a solid foundation for profitability and significant profit elasticity expected to be released [3][1]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The raw milk business revenue was RMB 5.07 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year. Despite the decline in raw milk prices, the company leveraged its industry-leading annual yield to effectively counteract price drop pressures [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was a loss of RMB 980 million, primarily due to weak raw milk prices leading to significant non-cash losses from fair value changes in biological assets [10]. 2026 Outlook - Under a neutral assumption, it is expected that raw milk supply and demand will be in a tight balance in 2026, with milk prices stabilizing and beef prices continuing to rise. The acquisition of China Shengmu is anticipated to be completed in 2026, leading to profit improvement [3][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a mid-single-digit growth in raw milk business revenue in 2026, benefiting from the downward trend in feed costs and steady yield improvements. If the acquisition proceeds smoothly, the herd size will increase from 470,000 to over 610,000, further enhancing scale effects and synergy [10][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at RMB -0.14, RMB 0.09, and RMB 0.17 respectively, reflecting increases of 14% for both 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [4]. - The estimated tax-pre profit increment from the meat and dairy cycle reversal from 2025 to 2028 is approximately RMB 3.1 billion [3].

证 券 研 究 报 告 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 23 日收盘价 港股公司 生物医药Ⅲ 2026 年 02 月 24 日 目标价：11.26 港元 当前价：6.37 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘浩 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520120002 加科思-B（01167.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） pan-KRAS 抑制剂价值重估空间大 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 156 | 234 | 627 | 508 | | 同比增速(%) | 145.1% | 50.5% | 167.6% | -19.1% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | -156 | -15 | 313 | 192 | | 同比增速(%) | 56.6% | 90.7% | 2,258.6% | -38.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | -0.20 | - ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 中烟香港（06055.HK） 境内免税市场独家出口卷烟，毛利率有望提 升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 11,836 | 13,074 | 14,856 | 16,071 | 17,470 | | 同比(%) | 42.19 | 10.46 | 13.63 | 8.17 | 8.71 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 598.77 | 853.74 | 938.26 | 1,057.95 | 1,300.22 | | 同比(%) | 59.71 | 42.58 | 9.90 | 12.76 | 22.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.87 | 1.23 | 1.36 | 1.53 | 1.88 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 52.81 | 37.04 | 33.70 | 29.89 | 24.32 | [Table_Ta ...

关税压力有望释放，退税或将增厚利润 康耐特光学(2276) 康耐特光学公司事件点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | | | 范佳博(研究助理) | 021-38053328 | fanjiabo@gtht.com | S0880125120019 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 64.80 | 本报告导读： 美最高法院裁定 IEEPA 关税违法， 关税压力有望释放，退税或将增厚 利润。 投资要点： 财务摘要(百万人民币) 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 营业总收入 1,760 2,061 2,375 2,800 3,265 (+/-)% 12.7% 17.1% 15.3% 17.9% 16.6% 毛利润 658 795 970 1,152 1,3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the company's focus on improving cost control efficiency, with a sales expense ratio of 30.4% in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points. The new chairman, Mr. Gao Li, is expected to implement more precise financial management strategies while maintaining business growth [7] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive digital transformation, which is anticipated to enhance production efficiency by 20%-30% through digital upgrades. The company has ample room for development in digitalization, having previously implemented management systems that could lead to a fully digitalized supply chain [7] - The company is reforming its distribution channels by reducing channel layers and enhancing single-layer profits, which is expected to improve channel efficiency and customer engagement. Although this may cause short-term performance pain, it is projected to strengthen the company's control over the terminal market in the long run [8] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 11.058 billion, 11.823 billion, and 12.670 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -18%, +7%, and +7% [8] - The projected net profit for the same years is 962 million, 1.209 billion, and 1.403 billion RMB, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -41%, +26%, and +16% [8] - The report estimates the company's PE ratios to be 26X, 21X, and 18X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8] Market Performance and Business Outlook - The company's bottled water business faces challenges due to industry price wars, with a market share decline of approximately 3 percentage points for its flagship brand, Yibao, in the first half of 2025. However, the bottled water market is expected to grow, with the pure water market projected to reach 179.8 billion RMB by 2028 [9] - The beverage segment is diversifying with new product launches, including herbal drinks, sugar-free tea, sports drinks, and ready-to-drink coffee. The company introduced 14 new SKUs in H1 2025, marking a historical high in innovation density [9]

【事件】 公司发布公告，预期于截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止年度录得未经审核之权 益持有人应占溢利较去年同期下降超过 80%（2024 年约 8 亿元）。尽管 溢利减少，但报告期间之经营活动所得现金较 2024 年同期有所增加。公 司报告期间未经审核之权益持有人应占溢利减少主要由于发电业务收入 与毛利率下降、部分资产之亏损及减值、税费相关影响所致。 协合新能源（0182 HK） 2026-02-23 星期一 即时点评 2025 盈警利空落地，海外布局开启 2026 估值重塑 【点评观点】 ➢ 利空落地，当前股价已充分反应悲观预期 尽管 2025 年净利润暴跌，但公司明确指出"经营活动所得现金较 2024 年 同期有所增加"。这表明公司的底层资产仍在健康运转，资金链安全无 虞，市场不应过度解读会计利润的下滑，而应更关注公司未来发展。 ➢ 资产循环模式跑通，锁定 2026 年上半年收益 公司于 2026 年 2 月 9 日宣布出售三个项目公司（云南致隆、永州界牌 等）100%股权予招盈能合，预计确认未经审核收益约 7754 万元人民币， 将直接增厚 2026 年上半年（1H2026） 的业绩。而且这一交 ...

威胜控股（3393 HK） 2026-02-23 星期一 即时点评 入通与分拆双轮驱动，锁定 AI 能源新估值 【事件】 根据恒生指数有限公司于 2026 年 2 月 13 日公布的恒生指数系列季度检 讨结果，公司被纳入恒生综合指数成份股，2026 年 3 月 6 日（星期五） 收市后实施，2026 年 3 月 9 日（星期一）起生效。 未来，为进一步巩固公司在 AI 时代数字能源解决方案的领导地位，集团 已宣布分拆惟远能源技术股份有限公司于香港联交所主板上市。 【点评观点】 ➢ 纳入恒生综合指数与港股通预期，提升流动性溢价 恒生综合指数是众多指数基金和机构投资者的基准参考。纳入指数将直 接触发追踪该指数的 ETF 和被动管理基金在生效日前后进行配置性买 入。而且公告明确指出，获纳入恒生综合指数将令公司股票符合资格在沪 港通及深港通进行买卖。南向资金对于"数字能源"、"数据中心"以及 "储能"等概念的风险偏好通常高于离岸外资，一旦纳入港股通，南向资 金的涌入有望提升公司整体流动性溢价。 ➢ 分拆实现资产重构，解锁 AI 能源估值 公司承诺在符合条件的情况下，向合资格股东提供惟远能源股份的保证 配额（优先发售） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong (6055.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report suggests a positive outlook on the company's business model and profitability potential [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the optimization of the cigarette export business model is expected to enhance profitability, particularly after the new regulations from the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration take effect on July 1, 2026 [1][2]. - China Tobacco International Co., Ltd. is the only entity authorized to export cigarettes to the domestic duty-free market, which positions China Tobacco Hong Kong favorably within the industry [1]. - The report anticipates that the gross profit margin related to the export business will improve following the implementation of the new regulations [2]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for China Tobacco Hong Kong is expected to grow from 13,074 million HKD in 2024 to 18,310 million HKD by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 854 million HKD in 2024 to 1,328 million HKD in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 43% in 2025 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.23 HKD in 2024 to 1.92 HKD in 2027, indicating a positive trend in shareholder value [3]. Business Model Optimization - The new policy will streamline the supply chain by establishing agency agreements between industrial companies and China Tobacco International, enhancing operational efficiency [2]. - The report emphasizes that the operational model for selling cigarettes in overseas duty-free markets will remain unaffected by the new regulations [2]. Long-term Growth Potential - As the exclusive operational entity for international business expansion under China Tobacco International Group, China Tobacco Hong Kong is expected to accelerate its acquisition process of quality targets, indicating strong long-term growth momentum [2]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.015 billion HKD, 1.132 billion HKD, and 1.328 billion HKD, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.1X, 27.9X, and 23.7X [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in its core business, driven by content expansion and AI applications [1][4] - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.76 billion yuan (down 2.4% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.75 billion yuan (up 76.0% year-on-year), primarily due to improved profitability and a tax credit of approximately 680 million yuan [4][5] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) driven by high-quality content, despite a short-term impact from changes in membership structure [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2025 was 77.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35.7% (up 2 percentage points year-on-year) [4][6] - The company achieved a net profit margin of 35.4% in 2025, with an expected net profit of 2.10 billion yuan for 2026 [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 15.0, 13.4, and 11.9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to launch VLA 2.0 in March 2026, significantly enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities with advanced hardware and software integration [1] - 2026 is projected to be the year of Robotaxi commercialization, with three models expected to be launched, featuring L4 autonomous driving capabilities [2] - The company anticipates strong growth in overseas markets, with a projected delivery of 45,000 units in 2025, representing a 96% year-on-year increase, and expects overseas revenue to exceed 20% in 2026 [3] - 2026 will also mark the mass production of advanced humanoid robots, aimed at commercial applications [4] - The investment recommendation highlights the company's strong product cycle, overseas expansion, advancements in autonomous driving, and emerging business opportunities in robotics and Robotaxi [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts total vehicle sales of approximately 430,000 units in 2025, increasing to 566,000 units in 2026, and 836,000 units in 2027 [15] - Revenue is projected to reach 75.2 billion RMB in 2025, 103.1 billion RMB in 2026, and 145.5 billion RMB in 2027, with a significant increase in gross profit margins [15] - The non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to improve from -1.2% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [7][15] - The company anticipates a total revenue of 100.1 billion RMB from its core business in 2026, with an estimated profit contribution of 2.7 billion RMB from its collaboration with Volkswagen [5] Market Strategy - The company plans to introduce three new models in overseas markets in 2026, focusing on Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America [3] - The production strategy includes partnerships with local firms in Europe and Southeast Asia to better meet local demand [3] - The introduction of the Mona SUV series is expected to enhance the company's market presence in the competitive pricing segment while maintaining advanced intelligent driving capabilities [3]